Gunner's 2021 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[Bill from NYC]

Thanks so much for the work, and the great points of reference coming into the draft!!!👍👍🙂

 

I feel as if you underestimate Mac Jones because remember, so did I.  GB, I did not expect him to start this season, and thought that if he did it would be due to the lack of practices because of covid. I expected Bryce Young (now a true soph, current starter) to beat him out as a freshman. 

 

I have seen him hit his third receiver numerous times. His reads are quicker (imo) than those ofTrevor but please don't take this the wrong way, Trevor is the better QB, the best prospect I have seen coming out of college since Elway.

 

Did you see the show on ESPN (I believe it was called QB 21) on which Jones was featured with Kirk Herbstreit? Mac stood in front of a giant screen and described how he made reads. It seemed like a fraction of a second on some plays. 

 

I don't pretend to have watched as much QB play as you have, nor do I think that I have the ability to rate them as well as you. Maybe the reason I rate him so high (other than being a homer lol) is that I refuse to make the same mistake twice. I firmly believe in this kid after what I saw this season. 

 

As always, jmo.

[JMF2006]

11 hours ago, CNYfan said:

I think they are all going top 15.

 

Thank you Gunner, good work.  I would interested to see the second tier, as that may be where someone wants to move up to 30 for one of the "other 3".  

 

QB's always get overdrafted as teams that need one are desperate(see Buffalo Bills previous 25 years before 2018)

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

Unlike many, however, I didn't lose my shite when Allen's name was called. I was disappointed but thought, "I hope they got it right with this kid." Too many were blinded by their own agenda to even give Allen a chance. They were convinced that he sucked and would never get better. Period. Patience has gone the way of the dinosaur, especially regarding NFL QBs. Anyway, thanks again for the analysis. Cheers!

 

I was guilty of losing my stuff when the name was called, but I said my piece on why I didn't like the decision in the 24 hours after the pick and then I put what I thought pre-draft to one side and judged him just on what he put on the field. I said at the end of his rookie year, which was certainly a mixed bag, that I already thought he was ahead of where I'd have expected him to be and he is now close to the reaching the potential that I acknowledged he had but thought was a longshot for him to reach. People who stubbornly hold to pre-draft positions when the evidence does not support it are fools. Equally people who want to be revisionist in their takes are fools. We all miss, it happens. Own it when it does. 

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

• Prototypical size and a huge arm that generates incredible velocity and zip on his throws.  
• Exceptional sideline thrower and throws the quick out and the deep out very nicely to both the near side and open side of the field.    
• Mobile and keeps plays alive with his feet. Will pose a scrambling threat to defenses in the NFL.
• Has experience playing under centre and does a really good job of selling play action.  
• Was required to read the whole field as a college Quarterback and to make throws with a higher degree of difficulty than some in this class, especially given he was surrounded by limited receiving talent that struggled to separate.
• Streaky and can catch fire at points in games once he gets a few completions in a row and his confidence starts to flow.  

 

I think you nailed that

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I don't understand what the point of a 49ers smoke screen would be.  Everyone is pretty certain Lawrence and Wilson will go 1-2.  There is almost no chance that the 49ers will trade out of the 3rd spot so what advantage do the 49ers have of trying to fool people?  The only advantage I can possibly see is to waste other teams time. Is that enough?

The league has in all likelihood told them to keep it a secret. This is a potential ratings bonanza, and the league needs drama. The 49ers are part of the league, not independent of it.

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was guilty of losing my stuff when the name was called, but I said my piece on why I didn't like the decision in the 24 hours after the pick and then I put what I thought pre-draft to one side and judged him just on what he put on the field. I said at the end of his rookie year, which was certainly a mixed bag, that I already thought he was ahead of where I'd have expected him to be and he is now close to the reaching the potential that I acknowledged he had but thought was a longshot for him to reach. People who stubbornly hold to pre-draft positions when the evidence does not support it are fools. Equally people who want to be revisionist in their takes are fools. We all miss, it happens. Own it when it does. 

“Close” to reaching his potential? He literally just had the best season for a QB in the 61-year history of the Bills and finished number one in the league in PFR’s AV measure.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

“Close” to reaching his potential? He literally just had the best season for a QB in the 61-year history of the Bills and finished number one in the league in PFR’s AV measure.

 

Yes, what I was driving at is I'm not sure he is quite at his ceiling. Maybe he is and if he is that is a fantastic outcome but I still think there might be more growth to come I think he is close to the top of his potential but I'm not sure he is quite there yet. Scary for the rest of the league. 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes, what I was driving at is I'm not sure he is quite at his ceiling. Maybe he is and if he is that is a fantastic outcome but I still think there might be more growth to come I think he is close to the top of his potential but I'm not sure he is quite there yet. Scary for the rest of the league. 

I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I think it’ll be hard for him to ever reproduce his 2020 season statistically; it was just so good when viewed in its totality. The Bills were remarkably injury free on offense too. They had a couple (Ford, Brown), but nothing crippling.

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks so much for the work, and the great points of reference coming into the draft!!!👍👍🙂

 

I feel as if you underestimate Mac Jones because remember, so did I.  GB, I did not expect him to start this season, and thought that if he did it would be due to the lack of practices because of covid. I expected Bryce Young (now a true soph, current starter) to beat him out as a freshman. 

 

I have seen him hit his third receiver numerous times. His reads are quicker (imo) than those ofTrevor but please don't take this the wrong way, Trevor is the better QB, the best prospect I have seen coming out of college since Elway.

 

Did you see the show on ESPN (I believe it was called QB 21) on which Jones was featured with Kirk Herbstreit? Mac stood in front of a giant screen and described how he made reads. It seemed like a fraction of a second on some plays. 

 

I don't pretend to have watched as much QB play as you have, nor do I think that I have the ability to rate them as well as you. Maybe the reason I rate him so high (other than being a homer lol) is that I refuse to make the same mistake twice. I firmly believe in this kid after what I saw this season. 

 

As always, jmo.

Surprisingly after reading through this entire post and carefully considering all details I am now convinced that if the 9ers pass on Jones and he slips to the teens the Bills should consider a trade up............

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

......to take a corner.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I think it’ll be hard for him to ever reproduce his 2020 season statistically; it was just so good when viewed in its totality. The Bills were remarkably injury free on offense too. They had a couple (Ford, Brown), but nothing crippling.

 

Maybe, though I am more thinking about the nuance of the position than the pure numbers. But look, if we get 2020 Josh Allen for the next decade I doubt anyone is complaining. I wasn't meaning to suggest any different on that. Just don't know that I have reason to believe we have hit the plateau yet. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Maybe, though I am more thinking about the nuance of the position than the pure numbers. But look, if we get 2020 Josh Allen for the next decade I doubt anyone is complaining. I wasn't meaning to suggest any different on that. Just don't know that I have reason to believe we have hit the plateau yet. 

“The nuance of the position” in my view strongly correlates with a decline in his run/scramble game, which was off the charts this season and why he led the league in AV.

[Sherlock Holmes]

@GunnerBillyou didn't rate how yummy they are

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

@GunnerBillyou didn't rate how yummy they are

 

1. Justin

2. Trey

3. Mac 

4. Zach (he looks like 12 years old)

5. Trevor (he looks like a different species) 

[Nihilarian]

13 hours ago, Virgil said:

@GunnerBill I’m not quoting that entire thesis.  
 

Do you think all the Mac Jones interest is a smoke screen?  

I do!

 

My take is that in week 13 of the 2020 season the 49ers watched Josh Allen go 32 of 40 for 375 yards, 4 TDs against their defense and said... Holy crap...we gotta get one of those!

 

Trey Lance should be the #3 overall pick in my view. 

 

I'll be surprised if Mac Jones is drafted in the top 15. JMO

[Bray Wyatt]

14 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Good stuff. Mirrored a lot of my notes as well though I think I'm definitely higher on Fields' accuracy than you. I charted him as comfortably the most accurate in the class (roughly 80% of his passes on target in the games I watched; Wilson is #2 at 73%). I noted that Fields had the ball batted at the line a weirdly high number of times as well, but you're right it was very high with Mac. I'm definitely lower on Wilson than you are, but I don't think your notes on him are off base or anything.

 

I'm not sure if I'm going to finish scouting Kellen Mond like I had hoped; it'll probably depend on how much the second Covid shot knocks me on my ass. Hopefully I'll be fine and I'll be able to wrap his film up. So far I'm finished with the main 5 + Trask and Davis Mills.

 

Did you watch Wilson against Coastal Carolina? Perhaps that is why you are lower on him than Gunner who doesnt seem to have watched that game.

 

Was also hearing he wasnt a captain on his team? That would be a red flag to me, though it wouldnt eliminate him if I was looking at drafting him, but would certianly be a knock

[DCOrange]

20 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Did you watch Wilson against Coastal Carolina? Perhaps that is why you are lower on him than Gunner who doesnt seem to have watched that game.

 

Was also hearing he wasnt a captain on his team? That would be a red flag to me, though it wouldnt eliminate him if I was looking at drafting him, but would certianly be a knock

No, I couldn't find All-22 film of Coastal Carolina. I heard he wasn't as bad as the numbers look in that one though. The Houston game was probably his worst that I saw.

 

Re: captain, from what I've heard, it's tradition to only let seniors be voted as captains but the coaches made Wilson a captain once he won the starting job.

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. Justin

2. Trey

3. Mac 

4. Zach (he looks like 12 years old)

5. Trevor (he looks like a different species) 

See I got the opposite...

1. Trevor 

2. Mac McCorkle

3. Zach

4. Justin

5. Trey (looks like Mahomes got ran over by the Oscar Meyer WeinerMobile) 🤮

 

Also 2 way tie for 3rd between Zach and Justin...

Edited April 28, 2021 by Sherlock Holmes

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I considered him a developmental Quarterback that you were going to have to spend a top 10 pick to draft. Now in hindsight I certainly should have worried less about what he was and more about what he could become. Indeed I have tweaked my Quarterback grading structure since Josh to try and weight ceiling more heavily in my grading - indeed Wilson and Fields both benefit from that in their grades this draft.  

 

The thing that amateur scouts (no offense intended) missed with Allen, even more than his athleticism, is his relentless work ethic and drive to be great. This is something nobody can quantify without looking deeply into the character of the player. What the Bills discovered about Allen made it an easy selection. People forget that work ethic and drive is just as important an attribute as many others that are scouted, and watching college all-22 film doesn't tell you anything about it. This is why the comparison of Trey Lance to Josh Allen falls short. If Lance isn't motivated on a clinically insane level then he isn't the same prospect.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

The thing that amateur scouts (no offense intended) missed with Allen, even more than his athleticism, is his relentless work ethic and drive to be great. This is something nobody can quantify without looking deeply into the character of the player. What the Bills discovered about Allen made it an easy selection. People forget that work ethic and drive is just as important an attribute as many others that are scouted, and watching college all-22 film doesn't tell you anything about it. This is why the comparison of Trey Lance to Josh Allen falls short. If Lance isn't motivated on a clinically insane level then he isn't the same prospect.

 

No offense taken, I 100% agree with you. It is something that is just unknowable to amateur folks like me. You can get a sense of a guy's determination on the field and my notes on Allen referred to his tough approach to the game but you just can't know how hard he is going to work Monday to Saturday. Or on a dark, wet February morning when he is along in the offseason. Baker Mayfield is as competitive as Josh Allen on the field on a Sunday but from all reports only this past season did he start to realise you gotta compete like that and work like that all the time. A guy with the same tools, but the same rawness that Josh Allen had coming out who doesn't have that same insane drive to make himself better very likely does not succeed in the same way. 

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The thing that amateur scouts (no offense intended) missed with Allen, even more than his athleticism, is his relentless work ethic and drive to be great. This is something nobody can quantify without looking deeply into the character of the player. What the Bills discovered about Allen made it an easy selection. People forget that work ethic and drive is just as important an attribute as many others that are scouted, and watching college all-22 film doesn't tell you anything about it. This is why the comparison of Trey Lance to Josh Allen falls short. If Lance isn't motivated on a clinically insane level then he isn't the same prospect.

Agreed, but I think all the indications (at least that are public knowledge) is that Lance is driven like that too.

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Agreed, but I think all the indications (at least that are public knowledge) is that Lance is driven like that too.

 

If so then it would be a great pick in the top 10. Personally I think Allen might be one of the most driven people the league has ever seen. It's on par with Brady who very well may be the most competitive football player of all time. It isn't something that's talked about enough as a skill set. I would put Allen's elite competitiveness on par with his elite arm strength as far as keys to his success.