Are teams overthinking the quarterback class this year? Is Justin Fields QB2?

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, glazeduck said:

This is my list too. I'd have Fields and Lance a touch higher (pts. wise) and Wilson a touch lower. 

 

I have Mond at 6. And I think he and Jones are back-of-league starters/Mills is a backup, but maybe a higher end backup...

I'm definitely rooting for Mills. Of the QBs I watched, I think he made 2 of the top 3 or 4 throws I saw. At his highest moments, it looks like Philip Rivers out there; throwing balls with absurd anticipation and putting just the right touch on it to get the ball up over the LBs and underneath the safeties. But his lows are so low and it just scares me seeing this dude with a bulky knee brace moving around so awkwardly. I try to ignore injuries in my grading and just stick to grading the skillset, but it looks to me like his knee is still affecting his play.

[Buffalo Boy]

   I simply hope the Jets screw this up and pick the wrong guy and develop him poorly. 
   Add to that I hope Tua remains the starter for Miami.

   Lastly, I hope Hoodie misses out on a QB this year and they 8-9 with all the free agents they brought in.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I haven't watched much of him, outside the bowl game, where he was throwing to wide open guys every play - but I did read that this past year he faced hardly any tight pockets at BYU, and his supporting cast was just flat out way better than anyone they played.  

Sure. So what should happen when you face lesser competition? You should dominate them, and he did.

 

I'd say go watch some tape of him. He made great decisions and great throws most of the year. His pro day was pretty awesome.

 

But yeah, he had a really good oline and played lesser opponents. It's hard to know how that translates.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Jets are better prepared for a rookie QB this time around but I still think he’s going to get a rude awakening starting day 1. The AFC East defenses do not mess around. 

 

Belichick, McDermott, Flores. That is some pretty serious defensive coaching coming at a rookie used to playing against Boise State. 

[glazeduck]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

I'm definitely rooting for Mills. Of the QBs I watched, I think he made 2 of the top 3 or 4 throws I saw. At his highest moments, it looks like Philip Rivers out there; throwing balls with absurd anticipation and putting just the right touch on it to get the ball up over the LBs and underneath the safeties. But his lows are so low and it just scares me seeing this dude with a bulky knee brace moving around so awkwardly. I try to ignore injuries in my grading and just stick to grading the skillset, but it looks to me like his knee is still affecting his play.

The brace might be affecting him a little, in terms of planting/driving, etc. but he's never going to be a plus athlete -- with or without it -- so I don't think it's too big of a deal. In my evals, I try to incorporate what I know/can find out about the program for context, and the Stanford program and the P12 as a whole have been a complete dumpster fire during his tenure as a starter, so that certainly muddies things for me. Definitely hits some big-time throws and he has enough arm talent to be a pro (though I don't think that's necessarily a + attribute for him), and you can see some good processing from him too -- but like you said, a lot of bad too. In a league that was behind the rest of CFB (so playing more simplified defenses) I would've hoped to see a lot more highs from a guy who's an NFL starter.

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Belichick, McDermott, Flores. That is some pretty serious defensive coaching coming at a rookie used to playing against Boise State. 

He’s a high potential guy who isn’t nfl ready imo. He’s being compared to mahomes but there is a reason mahomes sat for a year. Mahomes needed to develop in certain areas, people forget that. Allen struggled early too and I’m not saying Wilson won’t be good eventually but wondering their thought process on starting him right away 

Edited April 27, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[mjt328]

NFL scouts usually value "projection" above "production."  Not to mention, this is a copycat league and two of the most successful QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) came out of college as extremely raw prospects with infinite physical upside. 

 

Yes, Justin Fields is a good athlete with a strong arm.  But when you look past his college stats, his ceiling is probably a notch below Zach Wilson and Tre Lance.  And despite the great results on the field, there are bad habits on film (such as staring down his initial reads) that may be tough to break.  Sometimes more experience is not a good thing when it comes to teaching.

 

Also, I'm not buying the Mac Jones hype at all.  The 49ers haven't given any hints who they really prefer, and I think the media has really blown this speculation out of control with no real facts to back it up.  Part of me thinks the NFL is encouraging the drama, because they want good ratings for the draft, and the first two picks are already set in stone.  According to those in the know, Kyle Shanahan preferred Kirk Cousins over RGIII all those years ago, but was smart enough to recognize value and waited until the 4th Round to take him.  I just can't see this team trading away their 2022-2023 drafts to pick the #5 ranked QB, who almost certainly would have been their at #12 anyway.

 

Either way, it's not like Fields is going to be dropping crazy down the boards.  I think he could still go #3 to the 49ers or #4 in a trade-up.  At worst, I can't see him dropping past #8.

 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

NFL scouts usually value "projection" above "production."  Not to mention, this is a copycat league and two of the most successful QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen) came out of college as extremely raw prospects with infinite physical upside. 

 

Yes, Justin Fields is a good athlete with a strong arm.  But when you look past his college stats, his ceiling is probably a notch below Zach Wilson and Tre Lance.  And despite the great results on the field, there are bad habits on film (such as staring down his initial reads) that may be tough to break.  Sometimes more experience is not a good thing when it comes to teaching.

 

Also, I'm not buying the Mac Jones hype at all.  The 49ers haven't given any hints who they really prefer, and I think the media has really blown this speculation out of control with no real facts to back it up.  Part of me thinks the NFL is encouraging the drama, because they want good ratings for the draft, and the first two picks are already set in stone.  According to those in the know, Kyle Shanahan preferred Kirk Cousins over RGIII all those years ago, but was smart enough to recognize value and waited until the 4th Round to take him.  I just can't see this team trading away their 2022-2023 drafts to pick the #5 ranked QB, who almost certainly would have been their at #12 anyway.

 

Either way, it's not like Fields is going to be dropping crazy down the boards.  I think he could still go #3 to the 49ers or #4 in a trade-up.  At worst, I can't see him dropping past #8.

 

 

Haha... I don't put it past the NFL, low-key, asking the Niners to play it coy with their pick - especially given the almost certainty of Jax/NYJ.

 

 

[glazeduck]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Sure. So what should happen when you face lesser competition? You should dominate them, and he did.

 

I'd say go watch some tape of him. He made great decisions and great throws most of the year. His pro day was pretty awesome.

 

But yeah, he had a really good oline and played lesser opponents. It's hard to know how that translates.

Lesser opponents who had almost zero chance to scout/prepare/scheme. That's what's being lost in all of this -- this wasn't JUST Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys, it was Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys who had almost no chance to do hardly any preparation for them. It was the perfect setup for Wilson to shine, and yes, he did just that. But he won't have that benefit in the NFL. 

 

Compare that to Fields, who had as much, if not more, success over multiple years, against more talented competition, in settings where the more talented defense had a chance to scheme and prep for those offenses, in bigger games; is a better athlete.....

 

The only "answer" I can come up with is that Wilson is the shiny new toy and Fields' performance has become boring and expected...

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I'm just sitting here this morning laughing about the fact that the Jets messed up the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence.

Now, instead of getting a prospect who is described in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning/John Elway category, they've got to decide who is the "best of the rest". Clearly, they've decided to take Zach Wilson. But is that smart? Is an undersized (and I don't just mean his height, he's also sleight of frame and has small hands) one-year wonder with a cupcake schedule from BYU really going to be the franchise savior in the bright lights of NY?

Moreover, are teams overthinking the Justin Fields thing? Did I just imagine that Fields had 51 total touchdowns and just three picks in 2019? Did I just fever dream that he threw 6 touchdowns against Clemson in a Bowl game?!

This Fields situation is reminding me of Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. By that I mean that both of those guys had proven production against big time college opponents. We didn't have to guess whether or not they could play well against the big boys, because we saw them do it. And yet, Mitchell Trubisky was taken over Deshaun Watson. Josh Rosen was taken over Lamar Jackson. Is history repeating here? I know, I know, you've got to look past the stats and look instead at the specific traits that each guy possesses, and then project them to the pros. But that's maybe kind of what I mean when I say "overthinking it". Fields was dynamic! Prior to this year, Wilson was a 6th-7th round prospect!

In any case, I love the fact that the Jets missed out on Lawrence and are hitching their wagon to a one-year wonder. I love the fact that they ran a prospect who was arguably just as good as the guy they're about to draft (if not better) out of town, and now have to start from scratch. And again, I can't help but wonder if Justin Fields really should be the obvious choice as QB2 based on his dynamic running ability, arm, and proven production against NFL level players. Are we gonna look back on this draft and wonder how the heck teams got it so wrong on Fields, just as they did with Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson?

 

Sadly, I'm not invited to any NFL scouting meetings.  I don't know if teams are overthinking the Justin Fields thing.  

[LeviF]

What is causing Fields to drop down draft charts and why is it racism?

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20210426170952if_/https://theundefeated.com/features/justin-fields-and-the-double-standard-of-black-quarterback-prospects-nfl-draft/

[Mr. WEO]

Is anyone really worried about the Jets either way?  I don’t think so.

 

Lawrence on par with Luck.  Not so sure.  Gonna find out real fast in that NFL wasteland where he’s headed.

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Lesser opponents who had almost zero chance to scout/prepare/scheme. That's what's being lost in all of this -- this wasn't JUST Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys, it was Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys who had almost no chance to do hardly any preparation for them. It was the perfect setup for Wilson to shine, and yes, he did just that. But he won't have that benefit in the NFL. 

 

Compare that to Fields, who had as much, if not more, success over multiple years, against more talented competition, in settings where the more talented defense had a chance to scheme and prep for those offenses, in bigger games; is a better athlete.....

 

The only "answer" I can come up with is that Wilson is the shiny new toy and Fields' performance has become boring and expected...

Fields is going to be drafted very high, I think. And I am not totally convinced that the Jets are taking Wilson. They very well could take Fields, or even Lance.

 

The media can say what the media wants. Doesn't mean that teams feel the same way.

[Logic]

1 minute ago, glazeduck said:

Lesser opponents who had almost zero chance to scout/prepare/scheme. That's what's being lost in all of this -- this wasn't JUST Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys, it was Wilson and a bunch of older players beating up on younger, lower-talent guys who had almost no chance to do hardly any preparation for them. It was the perfect setup for Wilson to shine, and yes, he did just that. But he won't have that benefit in the NFL. 

 

Compare that to Fields, who had as much, if not more, success over multiple years, against more talented competition, in settings where the more talented defense had a chance to scheme and prep for those offenses, in bigger games; is a better athlete.....

 

The only "answer" I can come up with is that Wilson is the shiny new toy and Fields' performance has become boring and expected...

This is such a great point, and is going largely overlooked/ignored in the national discussion of Zach Wilson.

I know one thing: I would be absolutely terrified to be selecting a QB based on one good season under the circumstances you just described. Everything about choosing a previously unimpressive and physically unimposing player because he suddenly dominated a bizarre, COVID-stained season against poorly prepared cupcake competition  -- and choosing said player over a more proven, consistently successful and athletically gifted QB like Fields -- screams "extremely high risk" to me. 

Which brings me back to my original feeling: joy and relief that the Jets are forced to have to make this decision rather than taking a guy in Lawrence who certainly looks like a pretty sure thing.

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

What is causing Fields to drop down draft charts and why is it racism?

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20210426170952if_/https://theundefeated.com/features/justin-fields-and-the-double-standard-of-black-quarterback-prospects-nfl-draft/

He’s consistent projected to go #2 or 3 QB, perhaps even pick, in the draft. Where’s the drop?

[glazeduck]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Fields is going to be drafted very high, I think. And I am not totally convinced that the Jets are taking Wilson. They very well could take Fields, or even Lance.

 

The media can say what the media wants. Doesn't mean that teams feel the same way.

Sometimes, I think this is right on. In this case, I think the media is talking about Wilson to the NYJ because they haven't really hid their intentions there. The whole world knows Lawrence is going #1 and JAX isn't moving out of that spot. Assuming NYJ and Wilson is accurate, there's no real reason to try to move around the draft board if they've decided he's their guy, so also no real reason to throw smoke or hide your intentions.

We'll find out soon, but I think Wilson at #2 is a lock at this point (and is a laughably bad choice)

[wppete]

I like all the top 5 QBs this year. I think they all can be successful in the NFL. Here is my ranking for the top 5. All I think will be drafted in the top 15 picks of the draft. 

 

1. Trevor Lawrence

2. Zach Willson

3. Mac Jones

4. Tre Lance

5. Justin Fields 

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Sometimes, I think this is right on. In this case, I think the media is talking about Wilson to the NYJ because they haven't really hid their intentions there. The whole world knows Lawrence is going #1 and JAX isn't moving out of that spot. Assuming NYJ and Wilson is accurate, there's no real reason to try to move around the draft board if they've decided he's their guy, so also no real reason to throw smoke or hide your intentions.

We'll find out soon, but I think Wilson at #2 is a lock at this point (and is a laughably bad choice)

I think WIlson is a good QB prospect. I also like Fields and Lance. I think they all have a chance to be good QB's. Much of it will come down to their individual situations and how well their respective teams do at developing them and building around them. The Jets have been horrible at that, so that does not bode well for whoever they take, but they have a new coaching staff so we'll see.

 

Lance is interesting to me, because he has the Josh Allen comparisons. I think people are foolish to compare ANY QB to Josh Allen. There is no such thing as finding your own version of Josh Allen. Josh Allen is an NFL enigma and you can't expect another QB to do anything similar to what he has done and how he has progressed.

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think WIlson is a good QB prospect. I also like Fields and Lance. I think they all have a chance to be good QB's. Much of it will come down to their individual situations and how well their respective teams do at developing them and building around them. The Jets have been horrible at that, so that does not bode well for whoever they take, but they have a new coaching staff so we'll see.

 

Lance is interesting to me, because he has the Josh Allen comparisons. I think people are foolish to compare ANY QB to Josh Allen. There is no such thing as finding your own version of Josh Allen. Josh Allen is an NFL enigma and you can't expect another QB to do anything similar to what he has done and how he has progressed.

I like lance, he seems smart and there are a lot of comparisons to Allen. One thing they sets Allen apart that isn’t easily replicated is his intrinsic motivation to improve and the eternal chip on his shoulder. He’s kind of obsessed with winning and developing where he’s fallen short in the past. He’s also a natural leader and his teammates want to play for him. It’s more than just the physical tools. He also struggled early but the team was very invested and didn’t give up. They took their lumps knowing he was developing. The situation is critical. I just compare it to Tua where his coach is yanking him out in the 4th qtr and didn’t even allow him to try and come back for a guy who wasn’t going to be on the team in a month. 

[BarleyNY]

I thought Fields was clearly a top 2 QB (that I watched) during the season.  I didn’t watch Lance or Wilson though - and I haven’t studied them.  I’m a lifelong (52 year) Buckeye fan and this isn’t homerism because I haven’t liked a single tOSU QB as a pro prospect before Fields.  And I love Fields as a prospect.  He is very accurate, his timing is excellent and he can beat you with his legs.  His biggest problem has been holding the ball too long at times.  Young QBs who are trying to make plays often do that and I think it’s something he will get sorted out.  I hope he’s not a Jet or Patriot.