Are teams overthinking the quarterback class this year? Is Justin Fields QB2?

[Logic]

I'm just sitting here this morning laughing about the fact that the Jets messed up the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence.

Now, instead of getting a prospect who is described in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning/John Elway category, they've got to decide who is the "best of the rest". Clearly, they've decided to take Zach Wilson. But is that smart? Is an undersized (and I don't just mean his height, he's also sleight of frame and has small hands) one-year wonder with a cupcake schedule from BYU really going to be the franchise savior in the bright lights of NY?

Moreover, are teams overthinking the Justin Fields thing? Did I just imagine that Fields had 51 total touchdowns and just three picks in 2019? Did I just fever dream that he threw 6 touchdowns against Clemson in a Bowl game?!

This Fields situation is reminding me of Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. By that I mean that both of those guys had proven production against big time college opponents. We didn't have to guess whether or not they could play well against the big boys, because we saw them do it. And yet, Mitchell Trubisky was taken over Deshaun Watson. Josh Rosen was taken over Lamar Jackson. Is history repeating here? I know, I know, you've got to look past the stats and look instead at the specific traits that each guy possesses, and then project them to the pros. But that's maybe kind of what I mean when I say "overthinking it". Fields was dynamic! Prior to this year, Wilson was a 6th-7th round prospect!

In any case, I love the fact that the Jets missed out on Lawrence and are hitching their wagon to a one-year wonder. I love the fact that they ran a prospect who was arguably just as good as the guy they're about to draft (if not better) out of town, and now have to start from scratch. And again, I can't help but wonder if Justin Fields really should be the obvious choice as QB2 based on his dynamic running ability, arm, and proven production against NFL level players. Are we gonna look back on this draft and wonder how the heck teams got it so wrong on Fields, just as they did with Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson?

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Maybe

[LeviF]

Betteridge's law of headlines: any headline that ends with a question mark can be answered by the word "no."

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

Betteridge's law of headlines: any headline that ends with a question mark can be answered by the word "no."

Key word there being "can". In this case, the answers are "yes". Fields is going to end up being the steal of this draft, even if he goes 4 overall (where I happen to think he'll go). That he's being passed over by Mac Jones and Wilson is absolutely absurd to me...

[GunnerBill]

I think Fields is being slightly over thought - yes. Though obviously the medical concern about his epilepsy is a factor too.

 

But frankly I think QBs #2, #3 & #4 in this class are all really close. It comes down to scheme fit and style preference for me. And then obviously it will come down to how each team supports and develops their guy.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

36 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm just sitting here this morning laughing about the fact that the Jets messed up the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence.

Now, instead of getting a prospect who is described in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning/John Elway category, they've got to decide who is the "best of the rest". Clearly, they've decided to take Zach Wilson. But is that smart? Is an undersized (and I don't just mean his height, he's also sleight of frame and has small hands) one-year wonder with a cupcake schedule from BYU really going to be the franchise savior in the bright lights of NY?

Moreover, are teams overthinking the Justin Fields thing? Did I just imagine that Fields had 51 total touchdowns and just three picks in 2019? Did I just fever dream that he threw 6 touchdowns against Clemson in a Bowl game?!

This Fields situation is reminding me of Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. By that I mean that both of those guys had proven production against big time college opponents. We didn't have to guess whether or not they could play well against the big boys, because we saw them do it. And yet, Mitchell Trubisky was taken over Deshaun Watson. Josh Rosen was taken over Lamar Jackson. Is history repeating here? I know, I know, you've got to look past the stats and look instead at the specific traits that each guy possesses, and then project them to the pros. But that's maybe kind of what I mean when I say "overthinking it". Fields was dynamic! Prior to this year, Wilson was a 6th-7th round prospect!

In any case, I love the fact that the Jets missed out on Lawrence and are hitching their wagon to a one-year wonder. I love the fact that they ran a prospect who was arguably just as good as the guy they're about to draft (if not better) out of town, and now have to start from scratch. And again, I can't help but wonder if Justin Fields really should be the obvious choice as QB2 based on his dynamic running ability, arm, and proven production against NFL level players. Are we gonna look back on this draft and wonder how the heck teams got it so wrong on Fields, just as they did with Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson?

Great post! I think down the road you will be correct that Fields and also Lance imo are being incorrectly placed behind Wilson and Jones. There are still alot of NFL oldliners, who either think they are looking for the next Tom Brady; or something they think looks closely like him. FWIW the only game I ever saw Wilson play was against Coastal Carolina (loss) and if he is the second best player in this draft I'm SMDH.

Edited April 27, 2021 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[DrDawkinstein]

I think Lance can/will end up being the 2nd best QB from this draft.

 

Not high on Fields at all. Maybe if he lands in the perfect situation with the perfect coaching staff and players around him. Maybe.

 

IMO, with no real expertise, I think Lawrence and Lance will be the success stories from 2021, and Wilson, Fields, and Jones will all be duds.

[DCOrange]

I'm kinda bewildered by Fields seemingly sliding. I do think his knack for missing open guys is concerning, but I think he's a high floor, high ceiling player. He's an elite passer with elite athleticism; teams should be fawning over him. Instead, there's been a lot of reports that the media/draft twitter community is higher on Fields than the NFL is and that he could end up sliding. We now even have Allbright speculating he could slide into the teens and Chris Simms projecting that he's taken with the last pick in the first round.

 

I feel very confident that in the very least, you get a bigger and more accurate Tyrod Taylor out of him and he has top 10 QB potential. That's a great range of outcomes. I'm not even sure Mac's ceiling is above that baseline.

Edited April 27, 2021 by DCOrange

[glazeduck]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Fields is being slightly over thought - yes. Though obviously the medical concern about his epilepsy is a factor too.

 

But frankly I think QBs #2, #3 & #4 in this class are all really close. It comes down to scheme fit and style preference for me. And then obviously it will come down to how each team supports and develops their guy.

The Epilepsy thing is certainly weird, but it didn't stop him from becoming the #1b prospect in high school and an elite athlete and QB at the highest highs of CFB. I think you could even argue (and why his agent isn't, is beyond me) that the fact that he was managing something like Epilepsy WHILE excelling means he has the maturity to be the face of your franchise, but I digress...

 

Wilson made some great throws, and Lance has just drool-inducing potential. I get both of those. But Fields has literally done everything asked of him since high school. He happened to be born in the same year as one of the highest rated prospects ever, and he's kept on his heels the whole way. Why a guy who hasn't done it yet, and another who did it in incredibly bizarre circumstances has jumped him is both beyond me and also makes me think that he's very much being taken for granted at this point. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

FWIW my QB rankings

1. Lawrence (no-brainer)

2. Lance 

3. Fields

 

All in Top 5

 

Then much later in late Rd. 1, early 2 these guys

 

Wilson

M.Jones

Davis Mills

 

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Fields is being slightly over thought - yes. Though obviously the medical concern about his epilepsy is a factor too.

 

But frankly I think QBs #2, #3 & #4 in this class are all really close. It comes down to scheme fit and style preference for me. And then obviously it will come down to how each team supports and develops their guy.

 

I agree - I myself think Fields is the best QB after Lawerence, but there are warts.  I don’t get Wilson love in NY - I just think that is a bad fit.  A young Mormon kid from Utah trying to play in that spot light with the entire franchise dying for a QB - I think he would fit better with a team with more talent and less venom. 
 

I think that was a great spot for Fields - Ohio State the pressure and the talent - I think that could of been a nice match.

 

I Love Lance, but he needs to go to a team with some quality QB depth and some stability to give him a chance to grow and develop.  I think a team like ATL with a new staff and Ryan in place would be ideal.

 

Mac Jones throws me - as I see a guy that won, but was on the best and most talented team by far.  I see leadership, but when you have multiple top 10 WRs - I am not sure how exactly to process his play.  I would be hesitant to draft him as a savior, but could see a talented team like SF going for it.

 

So yes I think teams are overthinking it on Fields, but as Gunner said - scheme fit and style will make a difference for these guys.

[YoloinOhio]

Chris Simms had Fields falling to 32 to the Bucs In his mock! 
 

I have to say ... that would be an absolutely amazing situation for him. But not happening Chris. That’s very unrealistic. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I agree - I myself think Fields is the best QB after Lawerence, but there are warts.  I don’t get Wilson love in NY - I just think that is a bad fit.  A young Mormon kid from Utah trying to play in that spot light with the entire franchise dying for a QB - I think he would fit better with a team with more talent and less venom. 
 

I think that was a great spot for Fields - Ohio State the pressure and the talent - I think that could of been a nice match.

 

I Love Lance, but he needs to go to a team with some quality QB depth and some stability to give him a chance to grow and develop.  I think a team like ATL with a new staff and Ryan in place would be ideal.

 

Mac Jones throws me - as I see a guy that won, but was on the best and most talented team by far.  I see leadership, but when you have multiple top 10 WRs - I am not sure how exactly to process his play.  I would be hesitant to draft him as a savior, but could see a talented team like SF going for it.

 

So yes I think teams are overthinking it on Fields, but as Gunner said - scheme fit and style will make a difference for these guys.

 

I think Wilson is the most likely to bust. It is hard picking holes in his 2020 tape.... but he hasn't faced top competition and I just don't trust the Jets. Their failure to build around Sam Darnold is borderline criminal. For that to be the offensive personnel that you give to a guy you traded up to make the face of the franchise by his third year.... to let his best receiver (Robby Anderson) walk, to fail to significantly improve his oline, to give him 87 year old Frank Gore in the backfield..... incompetence in the extreme. 

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Wilson is the most likely to bust. It is hard picking holes in his 2020 tape.... but he hasn't faced top competition and I just don't trust the Jets. Their failure to build around Sam Darnold is borderline criminal. For that to be the offensive personnel that you give to a guy you traded up to make the face of the franchise by his third year.... to let his best receiver (Robby Anderson) walk, to fail to significantly improve his oline, to give him 87 year old Frank Gore in the backfield..... incompetence in the extreme. 

The Jets are better prepared for a rookie QB this time around but I still think he’s going to get a rude awakening starting day 1. The AFC East defenses do not mess around. 

[MJS]

I think Wilson looks really good, personally. He is athletic, has a good arm, and is very accurate. He is smart. The only problem he will face is injuries, which very well could cut his career short. He isn't big and he likes to pick up yards with his legs. His college injuries tell me he could face nagging injuries throughout his career just because of his play style and lack of size.

 

But who knows?

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

FWIW my QB rankings

1. Lawrence (no-brainer)

2. Lance 

3. Fields

 

All in Top 5

 

Then much later in late Rd. 1, early 2 these guys

 

Wilson

M.Jones

Davis Mills

 

 

 

I'm still hoping to get through Kellen Mond and maybe Jamie Newman, but my grades on the QBs that I've scouted this year:

 

1. Trevor Lawrence - 96 - lock to be a franchise QB
2. Justin Fields - 87 - Top 15 pick, skeptical he ever reaches his ceiling (being a top 10 QB) but think he's a high floor, high ceiling guy.
3. Trey Lance - 86 - Top 15 pick, lower floor and slightly lower ceiling than Fields, but should still be at worst a below average starter and has a pretty high ceiling
4. Zach Wilson - 81 - Late 1st round pick, just don't think he has the potential to be an elite QB; I have his ceiling as a less mobile Kyler Murray.
5. Mac Jones - 76 - 3rd round pick, I think he most likely settles in as a backup. Ceiling to me is Brad Johnson.
6. Davis Mills - 75 - 3rd round pick, higher ceiling than Mac Jones but I'm skeptical he'll get there. If I had to bet, I'd say he's fighting for a roster spot in a few years; he just doesn't look healthy to me but he does do some special stuff.
7. Kyle Trask - 67 - 6th-7th round pick, I just don't see it at all. I think his ceiling is Kyle Orton and his floor is a practice-squad guy.

[YoloinOhio]

Do the Jets have a vet backup yet? Like one that has taken a regular season snap? They really need one if they haven’t signed one. 

[DCOrange]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Do the Jets have a vet backup yet? Like one that has taken a regular season snap? They really need one if they haven’t signed one. 

No. Their backups are James Morgan and Mike White. They were rumored to be a landing spot for Alex Smith but obviously he retired.

[glazeduck]

Just now, DCOrange said:

I'm still hoping to get through Kellen Mond and maybe Jamie Newman, but my grades on the QBs that I've scouted this year:

 

1. Trevor Lawrence - 96 - lock to be a franchise QB
2. Justin Fields - 87 - Top 15 pick, skeptical he ever reaches his ceiling (being a top 10 QB) but think he's a high floor, high ceiling guy.
3. Trey Lance - 86 - Top 15 pick, lower floor and slightly lower ceiling than Fields, but should still be at worst a below average starter and has a pretty high ceiling
4. Zach Wilson - 81 - Late 1st round pick, just don't think he has the potential to be an elite QB; I have his ceiling as a less mobile Kyler Murray.
5. Mac Jones - 76 - 3rd round pick, I think he most likely settles in as a backup. Ceiling to me is Brad Johnson.
6. Davis Mills - 75 - 3rd round pick, higher ceiling than Mac Jones but I'm skeptical he'll get there. If I had to bet, I'd say he's fighting for a roster spot in a few years; he just doesn't look healthy to me but he does do some special stuff.
7. Kyle Trask - 67 - 6th-7th round pick, I just don't see it at all. I think his ceiling is Kyle Orton and his floor is a practice-squad guy.

This is my list too. I'd have Fields and Lance a touch higher (pts. wise) and Wilson a touch lower. 

 

I have Mond at 6. And I think he and Jones are back-of-league starters/Mills is a backup, but maybe a higher end backup...

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think Wilson looks really good, personally. He is athletic, has a good arm, and is very accurate. He is smart. The only problem he will face is injuries, which very well could cut his career short. He isn't big and he likes to pick up yards with his legs. His college injuries tell me he could face nagging injuries throughout his career just because of his play style and lack of size.

 

But who knows?

 

I haven't watched much of him, outside the bowl game, where he was throwing to wide open guys every play - but I did read that this past year he faced hardly any tight pockets at BYU, and his supporting cast was just flat out way better than anyone they played.