Ty Dunne: Motor can lift Bills to super bowl

[Billl]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The key point is the Chiefs offense didn't get better.   They gave CEH the ball quite a bit and their yards per play as an offense and scoring rank both dropped.   Then they get behind in the SB and there is no point for him to be on the field anymore.   It's a downfield passing league.   Perceived stud RB's rarely actually make offenses better despite people that think they are going to "take them to another level".    Bills fans think Etienne or Harris are going to make the Bills offense much better despite the evidence being OVERWHELMING that this will not be the case.  

I agree for the most part.  Having someone like CEH works when the rest of your offense is clicking.  When the Bills played the Chiefs in the regular season, he was unstoppable even though Buffalo’s game plan was very similar to Tampa’s in the Super Bowl.  That’s because KC’s O-line could handle Buffalo’s front 4 when they dropped 7 in coverage.  Tampa was a different story altogether.  The Chiefs line was decimated by injuries, and Tampa’s front 4 was eating them alive even when dropping 7.  Kansas City would have been much better off with another lineman (which they drafted but who sat out due to COVID) or another weapon at WR like Claypool.

 

Teams need a RB who has a certain level of ability, but the price difference between a good one and a great one isn’t worth spending a ton of assets on.  Veach/Reid probably got greedy taking a 1st round RB.  I think McBeane went for RBs in the right spot in the draft.  I just think they made bad picks.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

I don't think that's what he's saying.

 

You've got several positions - on both offense and defense - which disproportionately affect the game and which, consequently, cost more and are harder to find.  Those positions (in today's passing-based NFL) are QB, LT, WR on offense, and DE (EDGE) and CB on defense.  The Bills could definitely import a Diggs-like factor on defense in the form of a pass rush specialist.  If they added Von Miller to this defense he'd have a similar impact that adding Diggs had to the offense last year, for example.  

Then I may have misinterpreted what they were saying, and I hear you, but I think what I said is correct.   I think a lot more of the players who disproportionately affect the game are on offense, especially year after year.  Especially the way the Bills play defense - the Bills want guys to do their jobs, and the relatively few game changers there are in the league on defense are best when you let set them free.   I don't think, for example, that the best shut-down corner in the league would be nearly as important in the Bills defense as Diggs is in the offense, and even if he were, there are very few true shut-down corners.   The Bills got Hughes to play his position as designed into the defense, and that takes away some of his ability to be a flashy edge rusher.  Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but there were a few insider comments about JJ Watt that said spectacular as he has been, be wasn't so great at executing his assignments.  

 

Put another way, I think that there's more room in the modern NFL offense for creative individual play than there is in the defense.  You don't need standout stars in the 

[Rockinon]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Right. Singletary himself says he will be a different back, and not because he's motivated.  It's because he is learning to run differently and training to have strength specific the changes in style. 

 

We will see if the change is real. 

Apparently, he is much faster than the time he ran coming out of college too. I know that isn't that important when you are running between the tackles, but it sure does make a difference when you bust out past them. Singletary has some god given ability. Now, he has a top notch training program that is teaching him things he never knew before. Really looking forward to seeing how he does and whether the coach has let him out of the dog house yet...lol.

[BigAl2526]

A very encouraging article, why doesn't Buffalo hire a guy like that to coach the running backs?

[Locomark]

On 4/27/2021 at 8:14 AM, The Jokeman said:

Devin has his moments, he just doesn't have the breakaway speed to be elite. I compare him to a James White in that respect but maybe not as good as catching the ball. 

Fully agree. Devin seems like a slightly above average back at best. I highly doubt we will be jumping at a chance to give him a second contract at anything but a bargain deal. He doesn’t make many miss in a phone booth like the great ones do. 

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Your analysis is inherently flawed because no one is talking about the volume of defensive players drafted   Who cares that KC or TB spent late round flyers on Dlinemen? And it completely ignores that some defensive positions are more valued than others (CB, DE) versus others (S, DT, LB). 

 

Your analysis is inherently flawed because it's filled with straw men and nonsense.

 

Cracks me up that you are going on about, "Who cares that KC or TB spent late round fliers on Dlinemen?" Honest to God, that's laughable! TB's 2019 defensive draft, as I spelled out completely, didn't "throw in a late round pick on the DL." I get that for some people it's not worth checking their facts before talking but all you had to do was read the post you were replying to. Their first five picks were on defense. That was their 1st, their 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th. The late round guy came on offense, not defense, one offensive pick, their 6th, before they went back to DL in the 7th. 

 

Same with the Chiefs 2018 draft, the first four picks all on defense, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, all on D. The first and only pick on offense a lonely 6th rounder, though they did use another 6th on D.

 

As for the four year totals, you throw out that nonsense as if the defensive picks were all "late round fliers," and that's just simply not true. 

 

For KC, looking only at the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders the last four years they go five guys on offense (again, in four years) and seven on defense. 

 

For Tampa the same analysis of day one and two players for the last four years shows that they drafted six players on offense and ten on defense.

 

 

 

The best teams in the modern NFL are absolutely in no way slanting offense in the draft.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

21 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Nor is anyone saying you shouldn't draft or sign UFA defenders.  The issue is resource allocation in light of how you win in the NFL.  My point remains that

they are not getting the return on defense investment.  Case in point: Buffalo spent the most money on defense in 2020 and in nearly every statistical category was ranked in the middle of the league. 

 

I have to admit you make an excellent point here.

 

You're exactly right that Buffalo's being a top four team in the league does indeed make a compelling argument that spending money on defense can be an excellent idea in many cases.

 

But again, you miss out on the point about how good this defense is, which is that they took six games with all the new people to get together and gel, but after that they were very good, a top ten unit. During the last ten games they were tough and did their share.

 

An awful lot of the reason the Bucs won the Super Bowl is that they had an excellent defense.

 

 

 

But realistically, we spent a bit less than $7M on defense than offense last year. 52.32% vs 48.78% on offense. That is not a major difference.

 

 

21 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

It's about matching your strategy in personnel to your scheme and determining if the scheme works to win against great teams.  Because..the NFL is a passing league now.  Drafting another defender with the possible exception of a true pass rusher at 30 is not value added given the era and how teams win now.

 

You get more value in theory now with Josh being a top QB by supporting him.  Better skill types and blocking give Buffalo a better chance to win than McD getting all the pieces he wants on defense.   

 

Fair enough that it's about matching strategy to scheme. Again, the Bills are one of the absolute best teams in the league, proving that they're doing that.

 

It is indeed a passing league. That's why you need to spend a larger part of your resources on pass offense and pass defense.

 

 

 

Of course, you tend to be right that the best teams spend more cap bucks on offense. But that's not necessarily some kind of conscious prioritization, as much as it is simply that most teams that have a top ten QB on a second contract are going to be tilted towards offense. The QB is 20 - 25% of the cap these days for a lot of these teams. Those teams tend to be among the best most years and of course they spend more on offense. 

 

But look at KC in 2018, the year of the first conference championship appearance. They spent $75M on defense and $73M on offense.

 

Look at NE in 2018 when they beat the Chiefs. They spent $10M more on offense and that was when they were paying Brady.

 

When Allen's second contract hits the cap, the Bills will probably also tilt more towards the offense.

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Locomark said:

Fully agree. Devin seems like a slightly above average back at best. I highly doubt we will be jumping at a chance to give him a second contract at anything but a bargain deal. He doesn’t make many miss in a phone booth like the great ones do. 

 

 

5th in the league in broken tackles per rushing attempt in 2019.

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2020/06/09/buffalo-bills-devin-singletary-ranked-top-10-elusiveness-pff/

 

Nobody's saying he's great. He does lack great speed. But he's elusive as heck.

[Da webster guy]

What killed us vs KC wasnt lack of running game.  Motor has a career 4.8ypc.

 

Our D absolutely could not get off the field on 3rd down.  Mahomes 5 seconds to throw and targets wide open.  Both games pretty much a joke in that regard.

 

A rookie RB isnt going to be that much better than Moss, Devin and Brieda compared to getting a solid rook cb or edge.

 

When Bills pick D tonite, if you want to feel better go rewatch either Chiefs game and remember their Oline actually got better this offseason while we have done nothing to beef up our defense. 

We will get rolled again and again unless we do what Tampa did and get after that QB.

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

What killed us vs KC wasnt lack of running game.  Motor has a career 4.8ypc.

 

Our D absolutely could not get off the field on 3rd down.  Mahomes 5 seconds to throw and targets wide open.  Both games pretty much a joke in that regard.

 

A rookie RB isnt going to be that much better than Moss, Devin and Brieda compared to getting a solid rook cb or edge.

 

When Bills pick D tonite, if you want to feel better go rewatch either Chiefs game and remember their Oline actually got better this offseason while we have done nothing to beef up our defense. 

We will get rolled again and again unless we do what Tampa did and get after that QB.

I don’t know if there’s an impact pass rusher in this draft, but if Beane is convinced there is, there’s no price too high IMO.  You will not beat the Chiefs if you can’t get to Mahomes without blitzing.  Right now, the Bills simply cannot do that.

 

I’ve read countless “what if” posts about the AFCCG saying Frazier called a bad game and that McD should have been more aggressive on 4th downs, etc. etc. etc.  None of that made a difference.  The Chiefs game out of the gate tripping on their *****.  They dropped passes, fumbled a punt, and spotted Buffalo a 9-0 lead before getting their act together and going on a 38-6 run.  
 

Mahomes couldn’t have looked more calm in the pocket, and no amount of coaching adjustments was changing the fact that the Bills simply don’t have a Bosa or a Donald who can single handedly disrupt an offense.  Reid could have named his score, and the Kansas City line appears to be significantly better now than it was then.  Buffalo needs that game wrecker to compete.  Otherwise, they have to hope someone else knocks off KC for them.  Cleveland is the AFC team best built to do that due to their ability to get to the QB, IMO.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm late to the party here but obviously Beane and McDermott have faith in Singletary and Moss. I could see Singletary seriously improving this offseason especially as Defenses turn the focus on our passing game.

 

Daboll might get to finally call some more balanced games offensively.

[folz]

Good article. I also missed seeing this before the draft.

 

One of the best things about this current team (FO, coaches, players) is that they actually learn from their mistakes and work hard to fix them.

 

I think Sean and Daboll, without clipping the passing game, will be more focused on the run game this year based on how our playoff run went last season. I mean, if we can see there are issues with the run game, there is no way that Sean and Brandon don't. So, I think they will be more balanced this year. And the more reps the RBs and O-line get, the better the run game will be. I, obviously, have been one of the "It's not the backs or the O-line, it's the lack of focus on, and play calling that held the run game back last year" posters. So, I was happy that we didn't draft a RB. I believe in the guys we got, I really do.

 

But, reading the article, I see that it was probably a bit of both last year (partly on the backs themselves too). Reading the quotes from Hicks, obviously Singletary had aspects of his game that he needed to improve on (all players do, I'm sure). And Moss was a rookie, so still has a lot to learn. So, I absolutely love that Devin is attacking this offseason like he is. Hard not to root for this kid. Growth mindset---that's what coach preaches. And Josh is the perfect example of not writing off or giving up on a young player. Sometimes it's not the skills they lack, it's the knowledge/coaching. What makes us think that a RB won't improve or take a leap up in their game from year 1 to year 2 (Moss) or year 2 to year 3 (Devin)? 

 

Also, I love Devin's mindset and demeanor. He's a very mature young man. And I found it interesting that twice he mentioned Stefon Diggs' mindset, etc. I think the impact that Stefon has made in the locker room and practice field has been every bit as important as the passes and TDs he catches on Sundays.

 

Can't wait to see Motor, Moss, and Breida tear it up this year. Go get 'em Devin!

 

 

[HOUSE]

I remember reading about this in April

[folz]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

More balanced? Why? 
 

The Bills offense was scoring at will last season.... more balance= less opportunities for Josh Allen. No thanks. I say keep going with the pass centric offense. 

 

I don’t think balance is the issue. It’s being able to run the ball when they need to or when the opposing defense is begging them to. 

 

Believe me, I want to see Josh fling it around as much as last season too. And I don't think that we should hamper or pull back on the passing game just for the cliche idea of "balance." (I think grabbing Sanders in FA shows they will still be committed to the pass.) But the problem is, they might not be able to "run the ball when they need to" if they haven't had enough practice at it, so your execution is poor. The balance isn't to appease some old football adage, it is about being sharp enough in both areas of the game that you can turn to either when you need to. And in my opinion, that takes live reps. 

[BigAl2526]

I don't believe that Brandon Beane is opposed to picking a running back fairly high if that running back has some transcendent qualities.  It's going to depend on how the draft falls. in the case the the draft that just passed, I think the Bills felt their need to upgrade their edge rushers was more important.   I don't think there is any question that the arm of Josh Allen is going to drive the offense going forward.  However, I think the Bills would dearly like the running game to be more of a weapon when they do use it.  If Devin Singletary can give them some of that, it's all good.  If he can't, the Bills will know after this season that they need to keep looking.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Hopefully this works not that i was displeased with Singletary 's overall performance.

 

however the real reason we lost was because we went for FGs instead touchdowns, we may still not have won but we had a pretty good chance if we did.