BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Billl said: Who is trading a mid round pick for him, and how can their stupidity be further exploited? If someone is willing to give up valuable draft capital in exchange for 2 years of a RB who’s likely out of the league after his rookie contract, I want to wheel and deal with that GM. Yeah but regardless of production.......and Singletary has produced 4.8 ypc on over 300 carries.........they all depreciate immensely once you draft them. The Chiefs would be lucky to get a 4th rounder for CEH this year........he's lost most of his value. And next year, even if he plays better, it would be less value still. RB's are terrible investments. The Panthers would probably have to trade their next 3 first round picks along with McCaffrey to move back up into a draft to the spot they picked McCaffrey.
Billl Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah but regardless of production.......and Singletary has produced 4.8 ypc on over 300 carries.........they all depreciate immensely once you draft them. The Chiefs would be lucky to get a 4th rounder for CEH this year........he's lost most of his value. And next year, even if he plays better, it would be less value still. RB's are terrible investments. The Panthers would probably have to trade their next 3 first round picks along with McCaffrey to move back up into a draft to the spot they picked McCaffrey. CEH was a luxury pick for sure. He was drafted to take the offense to another level. He was productive with 1100 yards from scrimmage in 12 games before the injury, but nobody was confusing him for CMC to be sure. In retrospect, that was a really soft area of the draft, as no players taken shortly thereafter have shown much to this point. Chase Claypool who was taken 17 picks later at 49 is really the next player taken who I would swap him for today straight up. Picks 1-25 were wildly productive. It really fell off after that.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Billl said: CEH was a luxury pick for sure. He was drafted to take the offense to another level. He was productive with 1100 yards from scrimmage in 12 games before the injury, but nobody was confusing him for CMC to be sure. In retrospect, that was a really soft area of the draft, as no players taken shortly thereafter have shown much to this point. Chase Claypool who was taken 17 picks later at 49 is really the next player taken who I would swap him for today straight up. Picks 1-25 were wildly productive. It really fell off after that. I was a big fan of CEH, I thought he was the best RB in the draft but I wouldn't have touched him before round 3. And as it worked out, I think EVERY player except Swift that was taken between that CEH pick and Claypool has as much or more trade value than Clyde now. Even the other RB Taylor. And like I said, CEH wasn't horrible he produced like Singletary but with more touches in a backfield without another early round pick like the Bills had with Moss. Good production isn't worth much in trade at RB........pedestrian production like Motor and CEH is worth very little at all.
TheFunPolice Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 It seemed like Singletary went from "makes you miss in a phone booth" to just another guy really quickly. He was exciting and dynamic his first season here. Hopefully he can get back to that. 1
machine gun kelly Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: You say that "drafting more defense does not work in the NFL of the 21st century. The faster people accept that, the better." And sorry, but that just does not make any sense. Both the Chiefs and the Bucs have put up overwhelmingly defensive draft classes in very recent years. And yet they both seem to have found a small measure of success. Chiefs 2018 draft: 2) Breeland Speaks DE 3) Derrick Nnadi DT 3) Dorian O'Daniel OLB 4) Armani Watts S 6) Tremon Smith WR 6) Kahlil McKenzie DT Bucs 2019 draft: 1) Devin White LB 2) Sean Murphy-Bunting CB 3) Jamel Dean CB 3) Mike Edwards S 4) Anthony Nelson DE 5) Matt Gay K 6) Scott Miller WR 7) Terry Beckner Jr. DT And neither team in the past few years has countered that with an overwhelmingly offensive draft in any given year. Over the past four years the Chiefs have drafted 15 defenders and 9 on the offense, and the Bucs 17 defenders and 11 on offense and 1 kicker. excellent points and agreed as I especially follow the Bucs living here now. I just don’t know can we get to one of the 1st graded CB’s or 2 1st graded DE’s. I don’t think so. ive come around so my opinion has changed we maybe use #1 on Ettiene, but then load up on defense. I can see 3-4 picks East on defense this year.
Billl Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I was a big fan of CEH, I thought he was the best RB in the draft but I wouldn't have touched him before round 3. And as it worked out, I think EVERY player except Swift that was taken between that CEH pick and Claypool has as much or more trade value than Clyde now. Even the other RB Taylor. And like I said, CEH wasn't horrible he produced like Singletary but with more touches in a backfield without another early round pick like the Bills had with Moss. Good production isn't worth much in trade at RB........pedestrian production like Motor and CEH is worth very little at all. Tough to say. FWIW, his accumulated value was higher than 30 of the 32 players taken in the second round (per Pro Football Reference). I take that with a huge grain of salt, but it’s something. I’d trade him for Claypool and Chinn right now. Other than that, I just don’t see much value there. I can totally understand how other teams would see it differently, as Clyde is a guy who uniquely fits what the Chiefs want to do on offense and may not have similar value to many other teams. That said, it’s a moot point as there is a 0% chance he would get shopped. He’s a huge part the team’s plans for 2021, so a theoretical 3rd or 4th round pick wouldn’t even be a consideration.
BillsVet Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: You say that "drafting more defense does not work in the NFL of the 21st century. The faster people accept that, the better." And sorry, but that just does not make any sense. Both the Chiefs and the Bucs have put up overwhelmingly defensive draft classes in very recent years. And yet they both seem to have found a small measure of success. Over the past four years the Chiefs have drafted 15 defenders and 9 on the offense, and the Bucs 17 defenders and 11 on offense and 1 kicker. Your analysis is inherently flawed because no one is talking about the volume of defensive players drafted Who cares that KC or TB spent late round flyers on Dlinemen? And it completely ignores that some defensive positions are more valued than others (CB, DE) versus others (S, DT, LB). Nor is anyone saying you shouldn't draft or sign UFA defenders. The issue is resource allocation in light of how you win in the NFL. My point remains that they are not getting the return on defense investment. Case in point: Buffalo spent the most money on defense in 2020 and in nearly every statistical category was ranked in the middle of the league. It's about matching your strategy in personnel to your scheme and determining if the scheme works to win against great teams. Because..the NFL is a passing league now. Drafting another defender with the possible exception of a true pass rusher at 30 is not value added given the era and how teams win now. You get more value in theory now with Josh being a top QB by supporting him. Better skill types and blocking give Buffalo a better chance to win than McD getting all the pieces he wants on defense. 1
ColoradoBills Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, BillsVet said: You get more value in theory now with Josh being a top QB by supporting him. Better skill types and blocking give Buffalo a better chance to win than McD getting all the pieces he wants on defense. If it's a passing league wouldn't a team wanting to get into shootouts want at least a competent backfield? A CB in the 1st couple of rounds seems like a need. Like I've said 3 times in the last few day the Bills only have Tre and Dane Jackson signed for next year.
Not at the table Karlos Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 On 4/27/2021 at 9:42 AM, Coach Tuesday said: That article is nice and all but it just assumes its conclusion. He's going to get the Bills to the Super Bowl because he doesn't shy away from the drop that might've cost the Bills a chance at the Super Bowl? (Never mind Mahomes' 75% completion percentage rout?!) I mean great, but what is he doing to improve his game besides watching videos of his screwup? And by the way he has done that before - Motor has a knack for fumbling or dropping the ball at critical moments in critical games. Is he speed training? Working with the JUGS machine? Diving into the X's and O's of the Bills' blocking schemes? Simply owning a mistake doesn't guarantee you'll get better. Did you read the article or just the headline? You say the article is nice and all then ask questions that were answered in the article 3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah but regardless of production.......and Singletary has produced 4.8 ypc on over 300 carries.........they all depreciate immensely once you draft them. The Chiefs would be lucky to get a 4th rounder for CEH this year........he's lost most of his value. And next year, even if he plays better, it would be less value still. RB's are terrible investments. The Panthers would probably have to trade their next 3 first round picks along with McCaffrey to move back up into a draft to the spot they picked McCaffrey. McCaffery was drafted 8th. The Panthers pick 8th Lol
BillsVet Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: If it's a passing league wouldn't a team wanting to get into shootouts want at least a competent backfield? A CB in the 1st couple of rounds seems like a need. Like I've said 3 times in the last few day the Bills only have Tre and Dane Jackson signed for next year. No, they have more signed at CB than those 2 - Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace are also under contract. As to secondary competency, last year they were second in secondary spending, yet ranked 13th in passing yards allowed. Obviously, pass defense is the byproduct of coverage and pass rush, but my point in analyzing spending versus results is all about the scheme. Is McD's scheme and his vision for building a SB winner suitable for how the league is in 2021? I don't think so. Talking about defensive resource allocation reminds me how Rex was never gonna have time to implement his defense. It took too many pieces to do so and the same thing is playing out now. You've got a problem when the HC needs so many 1st round picks and high dollar UFAs to run his defense, which as @BADOLBILZ has noted is inflexible and teams are catching on to. It'll come to a head eventually, but probably not this season when Josh gets his contract. Beane even admitted to them needing to adjust after that contract is finalized. You won't have guys like Milano or Feliciano getting extensions. They'll be under the gun to start guys on rookie contracts to save money. Edited April 28, 2021 by BillsVet
ColoradoBills Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, BillsVet said: No, they have more signed at CB than those 2. Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace are also under contract. I'm not saying don't draft defense high, merely pointing out As to secondary competency, last year they were second in secondary spending, yet ranked 13th in passing yards allowed. Obviously, pass defense is the byproduct of coverage and pass rush, but my point in analyzing spending versus results is all about the scheme. Talking about defensive resource allocation reminds me how Rex was never gonna have time to implement his defense. It took too many pieces to do so and the same thing is playing out now. You've got a problem when the HC needs so many 1st round picks and high dollar UFAs to run his defense, which as @BADOLBILZ has noted is inflexible and teams are catching on to. It'll come to a head eventually, but probably not this season. Johnson and Wallace are FAs next year. As to last years $, drafting a starting quality CB will lower that number. As for this year the cap for CB is low even with Tre.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: McCaffery was drafted 8th. The Panthers pick 8th Lol I am talking about starting from scratch. So for this example, let's say 2022, 2023 and 2024's #1's plus McCaffery just to get a second pick in the 7-9 range in this draft. Even THAT might be light because a QB may still be bobbing around. Compounding the problem is that first round RB's have bigger salaries to start with and once you extend them, like McCaffrey, they are even colder trade bait. But yes, Carolina picked a RB at #8 and are not surprisingly picking at #8 again soon after. No needles moved. 2
dave mcbride Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I am talking about starting from scratch. So for this example, let's say 2022, 2023 and 2024's #1's plus McCaffery just to get a second pick in the 7-9 range in this draft. Even THAT might be light because a QB may still be bobbing around. Compounding the problem is that first round RB's have bigger salaries to start with and once you extend them, like McCaffrey, they are even colder trade bait. But yes, Carolina picked a RB at #8 and are not surprisingly picking at #8 again soon after. No needles moved. I love McCaffrey's game, but they also went 5-11 in his superstar season. Of course, they had a terrible defense and no quarterback, so there were genuine mitigating circumstances. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Billl said: Tough to say. FWIW, his accumulated value was higher than 30 of the 32 players taken in the second round (per Pro Football Reference). I take that with a huge grain of salt, but it’s something. I’d trade him for Claypool and Chinn right now. Other than that, I just don’t see much value there. I can totally understand how other teams would see it differently, as Clyde is a guy who uniquely fits what the Chiefs want to do on offense and may not have similar value to many other teams. That said, it’s a moot point as there is a 0% chance he would get shopped. He’s a huge part the team’s plans for 2021, so a theoretical 3rd or 4th round pick wouldn’t even be a consideration. The key point is the Chiefs offense didn't get better. They gave CEH the ball quite a bit and their yards per play as an offense and scoring rank both dropped. Then they get behind in the SB and there is no point for him to be on the field anymore. It's a downfield passing league. Perceived stud RB's rarely actually make offenses better despite people that think they are going to "take them to another level". Bills fans think Etienne or Harris are going to make the Bills offense much better despite the evidence being OVERWHELMING that this will not be the case. 34 minutes ago, BillsVet said: No, they have more signed at CB than those 2 - Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace are also under contract. As to secondary competency, last year they were second in secondary spending, yet ranked 13th in passing yards allowed. Obviously, pass defense is the byproduct of coverage and pass rush, but my point in analyzing spending versus results is all about the scheme. Is McD's scheme and his vision for building a SB winner suitable for how the league is in 2021? I don't think so. Talking about defensive resource allocation reminds me how Rex was never gonna have time to implement his defense. It took too many pieces to do so and the same thing is playing out now. You've got a problem when the HC needs so many 1st round picks and high dollar UFAs to run his defense, which as @BADOLBILZ has noted is inflexible and teams are catching on to. It'll come to a head eventually, but probably not this season when Josh gets his contract. Beane even admitted to them needing to adjust after that contract is finalized. You won't have guys like Milano or Feliciano getting extensions. They'll be under the gun to start guys on rookie contracts to save money. I'm with you on the investment they've put into the defense. At a point it's diminishing returns. They can still gain from an edge rusher or a stud CB but they probably have to accept that they gotta' get by with less on D and make it work because you can't let the offense take a step back. 1
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 13 hours ago, HappyDays said: I don't mean his catch/drop percentage, which is probably about average for a RB. I mean his ability to turn a reception in space into meaningful yards. For an offense that sends their receivers deep a lot, having a viable check down option that can punish defenses for dropping into deep zones is very valuable. Moss doesn't really give us that ability either. Add a legitimate speed back that can catch the ball and it will be a nightmare to defend us. Maybe Breida can be that guy but there's a reason he's bounced around the league for the past couple years and ended up on the bench in Miami. I just got back into some of the ideas being kicked around here, and I like this. And yes, I think Breida might be the answer. Your fundamental point is great. Sure, any back can get some yards when the defense is dropping deep and leaving some big gaps in the flat, but Singletary and Moss aren't great open field runners. They will turn up field and get the yards that are there, but there styles don't lead to turning 12 yards into 35. McKenzie is somewhat better at that, but unless he begins to line up as a running back, he doesn't solve the problem. For me, every time I think about the Bills are running back, I want to see some breakaway speed and some genuine ankle-breaking ability. Sproles was one of those. Doesn't have to be a Hall of Famer, but has to be a great who's actually a threat.
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: The key point is the Chiefs offense didn't get better. They gave CEH the ball quite a bit and their yards per play as an offense and scoring rank both dropped. Then they get behind in the SB and there is no point for him to be on the field anymore. It's a downfield passing league. Perceived stud RB's rarely actually make offenses better despite people that think they are going to "take them to another level". Bills fans think Etienne or Harris are going to make the Bills offense much better despite the evidence being OVERWHELMING that this will not be the case. I'm with you on the investment they've put into the defense. At a point it's diminishing returns. They can still gain from an edge rusher or a stud CB but they probably have to accept that they gotta' get by with less on D and make it work because you can't let the offense take a step back. It's an interesting theory that you guys are kicking around. You're essentially saying that the individual talents of some offensive players can raise an offense more than the individual talents of some defensive players. Or, to give an example, just for something to talk about and not necessarily something I'm sure is true, it's saying that there isn't a player you can add to the defense who will have the impact that Diggs had on the offense. Or, to put it another way, losing certain of your offensive players to injury will hurt your offense more than losing certain players from the defense. Or, to put a third way, defense is more of a team game. I think put any way, what you're saying is probably true. However, that doesn't mean that the right team building strategy is to spend more on offense in free agency, or to draft more on offense. You still need talent on both sides of the ball. What it may mean is that you should spend the same amount of resources on offense and on defense, but allocate differently. It may mean you should use your first pick, year after year, on offense, to keep trying to get difference makers. It may also mean writing your biggest contracts on offense. But it would also mean you might use more later round picks on defense than offense, and it also means you'd buy more defensive players, at a lower price, in free agency. In fact, this latter point is what Beane seems to do on defense. Pick up those free agent defensive players coming off their first contract, even their second contract, and see which ones fit the system.
Coach Tuesday Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: It's an interesting theory that you guys are kicking around. You're essentially saying that the individual talents of some offensive players can raise an offense more than the individual talents of some defensive players. I don't think that's what he's saying. You've got several positions - on both offense and defense - which disproportionately affect the game and which, consequently, cost more and are harder to find. Those positions (in today's passing-based NFL) are QB, LT, WR on offense, and DE (EDGE) and CB on defense. The Bills could definitely import a Diggs-like factor on defense in the form of a pass rush specialist. If they added Von Miller to this defense he'd have a similar impact that adding Diggs had to the offense last year, for example.
Buffalo716 Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: By that measure so does Singletary. He had a 51 yard run against Denver for a TD. Coleman and Freeman ran above 4.5’s, that’s what I was referring too. That isn’t elite speed. 40 time isn't always the measure of somebody's actual speed. Tevin Coleman when he gets downhill is absolutely really fast , much faster than singletary Like 20 miles an hour fast. Some runners excel in the 100 meter dash some Excel in the 55 m dash Tevin Coleman is the perfect example of that. His hundred yard dash time would look a lot better than his 40 yard dash time https://www.stack.com/a/tevin-coleman-recorded-one-of-the-fastest-speeds-in-nfl-history-during-his-breakout-week-5-performance Coleman records one of the fastest speeds in NFL history Edited April 28, 2021 by Buffalo716
atlbillsfan1975 Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: 40 time isn't always the measure of somebody's actual speed. Tevin Coleman when he gets downhill is absolutely really fast , much faster than singletary Like 20 miles an hour fast. Some runners excel in the 100 meter dash some Excel in the 55 m dash Tevin Coleman is the perfect example of that. His hundred yard dash time would look a lot better than his 40 yard dash time https://www.stack.com/a/tevin-coleman-recorded-one-of-the-fastest-speeds-in-nfl-history-during-his-breakout-week-5-performance Coleman records one of the fastest speeds in NFL history Cool run. I watch a ton of Falcons games. Neat that a guy with a slow 40 time can be fast with pads on. Good for Singletary who ran a similar 40 to Coleman. That run you posted came in the year I referenced to begin with and drew comparisons. Before the 2016 season a lot of Falcon fans were ready to write Coleman off. I do think most running backs in the NFL are capable of breaking long runs.
Buffalo716 Posted April 28, 2021 Posted April 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Cool run. I watch a ton of Falcons games. Neat that a guy with a slow 40 time can be fast with pads on. Good for Singletary who ran a similar 40 to Coleman. That run you posted came in the year I referenced to begin with and drew comparisons. Before the 2016 season a lot of Falcon fans were ready to write Coleman off. I do think most running backs in the NFL are capable of breaking long runs. Absolutely if they have the blocking But having top notch explosiveness helps obviously
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