Zerovoltz 3rd and FINAL Mock Draft 2 rounds

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

2 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

I think you are a bit unfair, by focusing (apparently) on the Bills' picks only.

 

I like the work and I like the rationales. 

 

And we will NOT move UP to take a RB.  But he did preface with the fact that he is mocking based on the current rumors.  Even though draft rumors are usually smoke, at least give him credit for the disclaimer and putting in the work to make it realistic IF that actually happens.

 

And if it does, there will be far fewer of us still alive anyway, due to Oncoming Trains, unstable angina, Electrocution from punching a TV, etc.

Is a very late third round pick (#93) enough to move up to pick 19?  I don't think that is realistic, especially with the players that are available in the provided scenario and the supposed drop off in talent at the end of the first round.  I could certainly be wrong, I guess we will have to wait until Thursday to find out. 

[MJS]

Way too cheap to move up that far. It would cost more than that.

 

Trading up for a RB in the first round seems like a bad decision to me. Especially that far. I could see trading up a few spots, but jumping to 19 for a RB? That's pretty ridiculous.

2 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

Is a very late third round pick (#93) enough to move up to pick 19?  I don't think that is realistic, especially with the players that are available in the provided scenario and the supposed drop off in talent at the end of the first round.  I could certainly be wrong, I guess we will have to wait until Thursday to find out. 

No. Not even close.

[maddenboy]

Agree it would take more Ammo to move up.  Unfortunately (or, fortunately for Bills fans) that move would likely require that we kick in some 2022 assets, which should be a nice, hard PASS.  Those are gonna be super valuable, with JA (yay) and Edmunds (ugh) coming up, and with being able to actually have a combine and recent game tape.

Edited April 27, 2021 by maddenboy

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Do you think Farley will really fall that much? I'm not saying to 30, but to a point where the Bills could make a reasonable move up to get him? Aside from the back issue, isn't he regarded as the best CB in the draft by many?

 

Some had him as their #1 corner early. I feel like most ended up coming around to it being Surtain. I think his back will mean he slides a little. I think he had a shot at the top 10 before that. The question of how far he slides comes down to how bad the injury is. No individual doctor assessments this year so all teams have the same basic information. If it is a good longer term prognosis I think Tennessee at #22 is the furthest he falls. If it is bad then he slides out of round 1 altogether. My understanding is it is the former so I expect he still goes top 20.

[ExWNYer]

10 hours ago, The Governor said:

I’ll throw myself in front of a train if we take ETN with Phillips still on the board. 

 

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’ll throw myself in front of a train if we draft up and don’t take Quitty paye If he is still on the board Actually I’ll just throw myself in front of a train if we trade up at all when we have an opportunity to get a cornerback they could actually help us this year at 30 Asante Samuel Junior or Caleb Farley please

 

2 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

If we move up in the draft to take a RB then I’m so done with this team

 

54 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

TBD is going to be thrown in front of the train known as post draft Bill in NYC after we take another first round CB or RB.

 

[freddyjj]

@Zerovoltz

Thanks for the hard work but can't see OBD moving up to 19 for Etienne and taking a smallish DT in Rd 2

 

The Bills have to recreate history from last year.  Win their division, get home field playoff games (even the title game) and beat whoever is the last team in the Conference for the right to go to the Super Bowl.  That team may or may not be your beloved Chiefs.

 

The CB2, Pass rushing DE, Interior OLine  and Nickel CB were all exposed last year in the playoffs - first by the Colts and then the Chiefs.  I believe that is how OBD will rank priorities in the draft this year

Edited April 27, 2021 by freddyjj

[whatdrought]

Sweet. The chiefs fan and Todd McShay agree about the Bills doing something utterly stupid. My confidence in the Bills not doing that thing is at an all time high. 

[Thurman#1]

Double face-palm, and a headshake in sadness.

 

Trading up could easily happen. Picking Etienne isn't a high possibility, but it could happen.

 

But both? And up to #19?

 

Wacky.

 

More, the #30 and a 3rd rounder doesn't get them close to the #19. They'd probably have to give a 2nd and a 6th. Which they won't, but that's probably what they would have to do to make this trade.

 

And Zero, yes they flaunted the metrics when they picked Allen. But not the metrics on where to pick a QB or how much they would have to move up to get him. They played the metrics brilliantly there.

 

What they flaunted was the perception that a guy with a completion percentage like that could never become a franchise QB. And there's no equivalent perception on Etienne. It's generally felt he's going to be a good back, just nowhere near good enough to be traded up for in the 1st, and especially with such a high trade-up. The situations aren't even slightly comparable.

Edited April 28, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Double face-palm, and a headshake in sadness.

 

Trading up could easily happen. Picking Etienne isn't a high possibility, but it could happen.

 

But both? And up to #1?

 

Wacky.

 

I think Etienne at #30 is a real possibility. It isn't the only one but I think it is one of the 3 or4 directions the Bills could go. I'd be very surprised despite the McShay reports if the Bills traded up for Etienne.

[Thurman#1]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Etienne at #30 is a real possibility. It isn't the only one but I think it is one of the 3 or4 directions the Bills could go. I'd be very surprised despite the McShay reports if the Bills traded up for Etienne.

 

 

I really doubt they go Etienne even at #30, but it is certainly not impossible.

 

But yeah, the tradeup to pick Etienne appears nuts.

 

TBD runs a tight ship on draft rumors, so if these came from us they are a smokescreen. The more obvious and reasonable possibility is that the rumors come from other teams the Bills might have contacted. But the idea that we would call and ask about value for a tradeup and then throw in for free the info about who we're targeting is pretty nuts. Why would we do that? The part about it being Etienne they trade up for is almost certainly guesses from the other FO who gave up the info to McShay, if this is actually a real thing at all.

 

If they're desperate for Etienne, the odds are good he'll be there at #30.

Edited April 28, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I really doubt they go Etienne even at #30, but it is certainly not impossible.

 

But yeah, the tradeup to pick Etienne appears nuts.

 

TBD runs a tight ship on draft rumors, so if these came from us they are a smokescreen. The more obvious and reasonable possibility is that the rumors come from other teams the Bills might have contacted. But the idea that we would call and ask about value for a tradeup and then throw in for free the info about who we're targeting is pretty nuts. Why would we do that? The part about it being Etienne they trade up for is almost certainly guesses from the other FO who gave up the info to McShay, if this is actually a real thing at all.

 

I think Beane's comments from the presser suggested that Etienne would come into their considerations. Beane tells you things without telling you things and to me there are four possible directions after his draft presser:

 

i. a developmental edge guy to take over a starting role in 2022

ii. a corner who they think could compete to start right away

iii. a receiver who could learn behind Sanders and Beasley and take a starting role in 2022

iv. a running back who "has what our guys don't" and he later specified that what their guys lack is "homerun ability"

 

Anything other than someone who fits those four categories would surprise me at this stage. 

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Beane's comments from the presser suggested that Etienne would come into their considerations. Beane tells you things without telling you things and to me there are four possible directions after his draft presser:

 

i. a developmental edge guy to take over a starting role in 2022

ii. a corner who they think could compete to start right away

iii. a receiver who could learn behind Sanders and Beasley and take a starting role in 2022

iv. a running back who "has what our guys don't" and he later specified that what their guys lack is "homerun ability"

 

Anything other than someone who fits those four categories would surprise me at this stage. 

 

 

I agree that those four are things they're looking for. I think they're looking for RB quite a bit later. I didn't see anything in the presser indicating RB in the first was a strong consideration.

 

And I know you disagree with this, but I think an iOL would be a very reasonable possibility in the 1st, particularly if they don't like the leavings at edge or corner. Including a guy who can handle all three interior spots and also a guy who could play RT but also maybe slip inside to guard. You 've made it clear you don't want a tackle unless he can play at LT. I think that's on the table. Much further up than #25 or #30 and I wouldn't do it but IMO picking a guy who could potentially out-compete one of our guards and thus either have either Feliciano or Ford becoming a stronger backup, or possibly even Feliciano taking over at center would make us stronger at two or three positions rather than just one.

 

But we'll see.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I agree that those four are things they're looking for. I think they're looking for RB quite a bit later. I didn't see anything in the presser indicating RB in the first was a strong consideration.

 

And I know you disagree with this, but I think an iOL would be a very reasonable possibility in the 1st, particularly if they don't like the leavings at edge or corner. Including a guy who can handle all three interior spots and also a guy who could play RT but also maybe slip inside to guard. You 've made it clear you don't want a tackle unless he can play at LT. I think that's on the table. Much further up than #25 or #30 and I wouldn't do it but IMO picking a guy who could potentially out-compete one of our guards and thus either have either Feliciano or Ford becoming a stronger backup, or possibly even Feliciano taking over at center would make us stronger at two or three positions rather than just one.

 

But we'll see.

 

I didn't get the sense at any point from Beane that he was talking about our oline in the conversation surrounding #30. I do think a center somewhere in this draft is possible, but I'd be surprised in round 1. I think Etienne is much more likely than OL in the 1st. 

[ExWNYer]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Beane's comments from the presser suggested that Etienne would come into their considerations. Beane tells you things without telling you things and to me there are four possible directions after his draft presser:

 

i. a developmental edge guy to take over a starting role in 2022

ii. a corner who they think could compete to start right away

iii. a receiver who could learn behind Sanders and Beasley and take a starting role in 2022

iv. a running back who "has what our guys don't" and he later specified that what their guys lack is "homerun ability"

 

Anything other than someone who fits those four categories would surprise me at this stage. 

 

The closer we get to Thursday, the more this one makes me nervous. I have been firmly in the 'CB, Edge, WR' camp but, outside of Kwity Paye, I hope that it's not an Edge until Round 2. If you go back and look at the hit rate for Edge defenders in the bottom quarter of Round 1 for the last decade or so, it's atrocious. Barring a Josh Allen-type of bullseye at DE, it's statistically likely to be a swing and a miss. I'm hoping that they can land somebody like Turner in Round 2 or if they trade back into the 2nd, maybe somebody with the raw skills to be a homerun like Rousseau. I'm starting to feel more and more that if they stay at 30 and go Edge, it will be Oweh.

[JMF2006]

On 4/27/2021 at 1:10 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Lol. Why do people get this dramatic before the draft. Don't you think if the Bills thought they could get a JJ Watt type player in the draft that they would? 

 

I could understand trading up for a DE if they think he will be good to great but an RB?

 

I always go by the old rule no RB's in round one and then we are projected to trade up for one?

 

He better be Great like Barry Sanders Great.

[YoloinOhio]

On 4/27/2021 at 5:32 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I am told the Giants are down to three guys - Horn, Smith or Parsons. 

 

EDIT: and I believe Horn will be gone to the Cowboys. I understand they are locked in on him at #10. The only way he isn't their pick is if Pitts or Sewell fall that far I think. They were locked in on Chaisson as their pick last year too and then Lamb slid to them and they changed their minds.

I heard pats might trade them Gilmore to move from 15 up to 10 (Dallas would throw in another pick)

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I heard pats might trade them Gilmore to move from 15 up to 10 (Dallas would throw in another pick)

 

I heard Carolina was where the Pats were focussed but again so many rumours at this point. I keep reminding myself ignore most of what you hear in the last week right up until an hour or so before the draft. 

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I heard Carolina was where the Pats were focussed but again so many rumours at this point. I keep reminding myself ignore most of what you hear in the last week right up until an hour or so before the draft. 

I think there are a lot of trade scenarios on tap depending on what happens at 3 and 4

[dave mcbride]

On 4/27/2021 at 5:29 AM, Zerovoltz said:

Truly...I am in the camp that believe 1st round RB is too high, and trading up for anything that isn't a QB is problaby a bad idea.  Not, the whole Mock...wich is almost entirely my own analysis and thought....but in the Bills trade IS a product of the trade up rumors from today...I wanted to Mock it and see what it might look like.  I do realize that 1 and 3 to go from 30 to 19 is bit on the cheap side...but I don't think later round pick in ***This*** draft are worth quite as much since it's covid mania.  I could be totally wrong.  as you say...it's just a mock.  If I were running the Bills myself...I'd try and trade out of 30 and pick up a RB with the extra pick(s)  I am not sold that Ettienne is an elite/special type back...though I do like him....just not as much as this mock would indicate.  

 

I would only add that given the difficulty evaluating players this year....including getting good medical information on them...Etienne is more of sure thing than most.  You'd be paying for a bit of certainty by trading up for him...and you keep him off the Jets.  I'd not be entirely shocked if it happend....normallly, I'd be VERY shocked anyone would make such a trade.  It will be a wild year...I am sure this Mock will be blown to bits by pick 3.

One thing I disagree with you on is the idea that Pittsburgh doesn’t draft o-line early. They drafted o-line in the first round in 2010 and 2012, and both those guys lasted a long time (decastro and pouncey). More importantly, the same regime was in place. They haven’t drafted o-line first for a while because the need wasn’t there, but this year it is, and they are desperate. I fully expect them to go o-line first.

[Putin]

On 4/27/2021 at 12:06 AM, The Governor said:

I’ll throw myself in front of a train if we take ETN with Phillips still on the board. 
 

Didn’t we try to get JJ Watt? Isn’t Phillips a similar type player?

I’ll be on that ETN  🚂 choooo choooo