Give up draft picks and trade up in the 1st to get "your guy"... this is the year to do it

[Logic]

The premise of this thread is a good one.

 

Its not a great draft year. As the OP stated, the pool of available players is much smaller. Due to lack of combine, medical testing is sorely lacking. Opt-outs create additional uncertainty. I have read that some teams only have about 16-18 players with first round grades.

 

I wouldn’t fault a team for trading up and getting “their guy”, nor would I fault a team for trading down and collecting more “lottery tickets” in this wonky draft.

[Bigantall]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So I hadn't even realized this, but evidently there are only 657 eligible draft picks this year vs 1,932 last year because the NCAA allowed an extra year of eligibility for college players.  That combined with limited game tape on many of them combined with a lack of Combine and face-to-face might make for a true wheelin and dealin Brandon Beane.

 

Basically... this also likely means that there's going to be LOTS of depth in next year's draft and 7th round picks next year willl likely be better than 7th round picks in other years.

 

I attached a video below making the argument for essentially trading ALL of this year's draft picks (or our 1st this year and next year along with a couple 2nds, 3rds, or 4ths) in order to trade ALL THE WAY UP to #4 for Kyle Pitts.

 

Would that be wise or is it even close to what Beane is thinking?  Probably not.  But with the recent report about us wanting to leapfrog the Jags and Jets for Etienne, maybe Beane is legitimately eyeballing Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn in the teens. 

 

Or who knows.... why not swing for the fences to get Pitts?

 

 

You see he didn't mention the rb position where a rookie can come in and start

[mjt328]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So I hadn't even realized this, but evidently there are only 657 eligible draft picks this year vs 1,932 last year because the NCAA allowed an extra year of eligibility for college players.  That combined with limited game tape on many of them combined with a lack of Combine and face-to-face might make for a true wheelin and dealin Brandon Beane.

 

Basically... this also likely means that there's going to be LOTS of depth in next year's draft and 7th round picks next year willl likely be better than 7th round picks in other years.

 

I attached a video below making the argument for essentially trading ALL of this year's draft picks (or our 1st this year and next year along with a couple 2nds, 3rds, or 4ths) in order to trade ALL THE WAY UP to #4 for Kyle Pitts.

 

Would that be wise or is it even close to what Beane is thinking?  Probably not.  But with the recent report about us wanting to leapfrog the Jags and Jets for Etienne, maybe Beane is legitimately eyeballing Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn in the teens. 

 

Or who knows.... why not swing for the fences to get Pitts?

 

 

 

So wait a minute.  I'm confused.

 

You say the 2021 draft has less eligible players than normal (meaning less depth in later rounds).  Due to the COVID opt-outs, shortened season and incomplete medical checks, there is also a lot of uncertainty about how players should be properly ranked (meaning greater risk of busts in all rounds).  And due to the change in eligibility rules, the 2022 draft is going to have more incoming players than usual (meaning greater depth in later rounds).

 

And our logical response is to basically trade away all of our 2021 and 2022 picks, so we can move up for just one player?  

Wouldn't it be the complete opposite?  Wouldn't this be the draft to move back, and stockpile extra picks in next year's draft?

 

 

[TPS]

If next year is going to be a very good draft year, wouldn’t a better strategy be trading back and stockpiling picks for that draft? 

I did a little trading back on the simulator and picked up an extra R2, 2 R3s, an R4, and an R5. I also picked up depth at cb, wr, S, and ol. 

 

So, they could trade all picks this year for one player, or focus on next year and stock the team for a 10-year run?

[skibum]

I could see the Bills trading up a few spots as the picks get into the 20's and maybe their guy/s is/are still within reach. But I don't see a blockbuster move given the overall quality of the current roster. 

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So I hadn't even realized this, but evidently there are only 657 eligible draft picks this year vs 1,932 last year because the NCAA allowed an extra year of eligibility for college players.  That combined with limited game tape on many of them combined with a lack of Combine and face-to-face might make for a true wheelin and dealin Brandon Beane.

 

Basically... this also likely means that there's going to be LOTS of depth in next year's draft and 7th round picks next year willl likely be better than 7th round picks in other years.

 

I attached a video below making the argument for essentially trading ALL of this year's draft picks (or our 1st this year and next year along with a couple 2nds, 3rds, or 4ths) in order to trade ALL THE WAY UP to #4 for Kyle Pitts.

 

Would that be wise or is it even close to what Beane is thinking?  Probably not.  But with the recent report about us wanting to leapfrog the Jags and Jets for Etienne, maybe Beane is legitimately eyeballing Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn in the teens. 

 

Or who knows.... why not swing for the fences to get Pitts?

 

 

This is like giving up one years salary for one night with Scarlatte Johannson.  Sounds hot, sometimes the little guy tells the big guy what to do, and sounds like a GREAT idea lol but really its a bad idea even if we could.  Our DEs already are limiting us, and Jerry Hughes turns 54 (or is it 64?) next year, and the cupboards  are going to be very bare.  If we did, id be beyond excited, but I dont think its the smartest move. 

 

Rookie TEs havent exactly come in and lit up the league either, which makes the justification that much harder.  Listen, if it happens we can go out and party together, stay up past our bedtimes if youd like even!  But I dont think this kind of move is in Beanes DNA

[Rocky Landing]

Pitts is a pipe dream. Trading that giant amount of draft capital is the sort of malarkey that fans ponder-- not professional GMs.

 

I wouldn't mind trading up for the right guy. But, consider that in the first 29 picks, there will likely be five QBs taken, probably five WRs, Pitts will go as well as Sewell, and Slater. Depending on the breadth of Beane's board, there's going to be a broad range of talent to be had with either a more modest trade-up into the early twenties, or just standing pat at 30. 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, Bill Murray said:

...wouldn't this mean we should be trading DOWN to stockpile as many mid round picks next year as possible given the depth of talent in 2022?  

 

If you don't think you're a player or two short this year, then sure.

 

The reality is that Buffalo could really benefit from a top end player or two this year.  Despite what I said in the OP, I don't think we'll trade up for Pitts and kinda hope it won't matter because I still have hopes our TE corps comes into full swing this year with Sweeney, Hollister and Knox.

 

I'm genuinely curious if Beane is serious about trading up for Etienne or if that's just a massive smokescreen.  Every indication in the offseason was he still has all the faith in the world in Moss and Singletary and we went out and got our theoretical HR hitter at RB in Breida.  So my gut says it's a smokescreen.

 

I could genuinely see us trading up for either an EDGE rusher or CB, though.  Both of those (particularly CB) are pretty close to glaring needs this year and I think this year's team would really benefit from top end talent at either position.

 

I also still kinda think Davonta Smith is a wildcard if he falls.

 

 

Basically... I think Beane would/should trade up into the early 20s or mid teens if "his guy" is there.

[colin]

pitts could end up being a HOF greatest TE to ever play the game, and getting more than 1000 yards and 8 TDs in his first year would still be beyond expectations, especially with all the wr weapons the bills have.

 

obv he'd make the team better, but i just don't think it's likely a TE has as big of an impact as a top flight WR when you compare rookie year to rookie year, and even top flight WRs take time to really take the game over.

[ColoradoBills]

19 hours ago, Bill Murray said:

...wouldn't this mean we should be trading DOWN to stockpile as many mid round picks next year as possible given the depth of talent in 2022?  

 

I totally agree with you and others that have stated the obvious!

 

18 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

No, it's a better year to trade down if your guy isn't there.

 

If Beane has a target or 2 and can trade down this year and come away with a 3rd or 4th next year along with a 5-7 I would be so happy.

These type of threads are all about risking the future because "we are 1 player away".  I think that's wrong.

 

@transplantbillsfan, it's true about ATL going all in on Julio but look where it's left them a few years later.  In the basement trying to unload him.

Edited April 27, 2021 by ColoradoBills

[JMF2006]

Wouldn't it just make more sense to trade a pick for Vet TE thats already in the league?

 

Thats a lot of draft capitol for a TE......Beane didn't give that much away for Allen or Diggs.

 

The probability of this happening is Zero...voltz  at least he only had the Bills trading a 3rd to move up for an RB  

Edited April 27, 2021 by JMF2006

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 it's true about ATL going all in on Julio but look where it's left them a few years later.  In the basement trying to unload him.

They were also 30m away from winning the Super Bowl and it took a historic collapse to keep that from happening. Given our history, I think most Bills fans would take a SB win and then falling to the point ATL is now, if given the option...

[JMF2006]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I totally agree with you and others that have stated the obvious!

 

 

If Beane has a target or 2 and can trade down this year and come away with a 3rd or 4th next year along with a 5-7 I would be so happy.

These type of threads are all about risking the future because "we are 1 player away".  I think that's wrong.

 

@transplantbillsfan, it's true about ATL going all in on Julio but look where it's left them a few years later.  In the basement trying to unload him.

 

Our previous FO made that Julio pitch about Watkins  

 

That worked out well

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, glazeduck said:

They were also 30m away from winning the Super Bowl and it took a historic collapse to keep that from happening. Given our history, I think most Bills fans would take a SB win and then falling to the point ATL is now, if given the option...

 

Brandon Beane disagrees (and so do I).  

[transplantbillsfan]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

@transplantbillsfan, it's true about ATL going all in on Julio but look where it's left them a few years later.  In the basement trying to unload him.

 

A few years?

 

Jones was drafted 10 years ago.  He's an aging vet at this point.

 

And I saw somewhere else in here someone mention the Falcons falling off a couple years after Jones was drafted, which is true.  What's also true is that he only played 4 full games in his 3rd season before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.  That year they went 4-12.  The next year they had another losing season (and Jones seemed to have some lingering injury issues).  Then their coach was fired and they had season 1 with Dan Quinn where they were 8-8 and then had their Super Bowl year.

 

It's completely reasonable to not make the move because of what could happen 3 or 4 years from now, but if he's the player you believe gets you over the hump and Buffalo wins a Super Bowl this year and/or next year, then hindsight becomes 20/20 and it becomes the right choice.

[glazeduck]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Brandon Beane disagrees (and so do I).  

You're entitled to your opinion, and as I've already stated in this thread, while the premise is solid, it's simply untenable. That said, the history of professional sports is littered with small market teams that had dynastic aspirations and fell short. We played in 4 straight super bowls, meaning we were one of the 2 best teams for four consecutive years, and yet the only talking points from those years are our losses in the SB or the winners.

 

It's great to want to be a dynasty, it's another thing to achieve it (as my favorite saying goes: "wish in one hand, 💩 in the other, see which fills up first".) All I'm really saying is that AT SOME POINT, history shows that teams on the brink (especially without the benefit of a larger market/glitz & glam/opportunistic tax benefits) who take a big swing are rewarded more often than teams who just consistently try to remain competitive for an extended period of time.

 

This seems especially true in this era of massive QB contracts -- people talk about how our window is huge because Josh is only 24, but that's not the whole picture. Our window closes some when he signs a massive extension, because of the limitations that puts on the rest of the roster. We'll likely remain relevant and competitive, but our BEST window is these next 2 years while Josh is on his rookie deal. 

 

Nobody remembers teams for just being good, they remember them for winning a championship. Hoping when the time and opportunity is right, Beane's not afraid to take that big swing...

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

They were also 30m away from winning the Super Bowl and it took a historic collapse to keep that from happening. Given our history, I think most Bills fans would take a SB win and then falling to the point ATL is now, if given the option...

 

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Brandon Beane disagrees (and so do I).  

 

The thing is that Atlanta analogy is unrelated.  There really weren't any lingering effects from the Julio Jones trade by the time Atlanta was 28 points up in the Super Bowl. 

 

The year Julio was drafted the Falcons made the playoffs and lost in the Wildcard and then the next year they made the Conference Championship and went 13-3.

 

And then the floor fell out and the Falcons had 2 losing seasons and one 8-8 season before the Super Bowl season.

 

It might also be relevant that the year the floor fell out for the Falcons is also the year Jones only played 4 full games before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.

[BigdaddyinOrlando]

This year's draft I think is the one to play cautious with no medicals on the players and no face to face. I say staticky to your board and if given a chance get some picks for next year when the draft pool will be deeper the the 660 players now and back to the 1800+ available next year. JMO 

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

It's great to want to be a dynasty

 

Dynasty is a bit strong of a term for what Beane and McDermott are in the process of building.

 

Lets all remember if it wasn't for the vision of those 2 men we would not be in the position to have this discussion in the first place.

They are here for another 5 years and have what seems to be a good plan that I personally am happy to watch unfold.

 

It's draft week and there is a lot of armchair GM talk about what the Bills NEED to do.  I'll wait till Thursday and Friday to see what happens.

For my money I will be SHOCKED if there is this huge move up in the 1st round by the Bills.

[glazeduck]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Dynasty is a bit strong of a term for what Beane and McDermott are in the process of building.

 

Lets all remember if it wasn't for the vision of those 2 men we would not be in the position to have this discussion in the first place.

They are here for another 5 years and have what seems to be a good plan that I personally am happy to watch unfold.

 

It's draft week and there is a lot of armchair GM talk about what the Bills NEED to do.  I'll wait till Thursday and Friday to see what happens.

For my money I will be SHOCKED if there is this huge move up in the 1st round by the Bills.

I'm all for trusting the FO and the process. I guess I'm not clear on what your point is... You said you didn't want to win a SB if it meant falling to obscurity shortly thereafter, so I assumed you'd rather they just try to remain competitive for the foreseeable future? The reality is that no team is every going to nail 100% of their picks and develop each of them perfectly, this isn't Madden. 31 teams "fail" every year. 

 

All I'm saying is that at some point, if we want to win a championship, we're probably going to have to make a big swing.

This isn't it, but it's the right thinking.