McShay- Bills trying to move up above 23 for Etienne

[ROCBillsBeliever]

23 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

The devaluing of RBs is in regards to the 2nd contract. "Do not sign RBs to a long-term deal beyond their rookie deal"

 

That is irrevelant to ETN helping Josh and the Bills get over the top within the next 5 years on his rookie deal.

 

Some of those teams simply drafted the wrong RB in the 1st round. Example - The Pats picked Sony Michel over Nick Chubb. If the Pats pick Nick Chubb - that's a phenomenal pick. If the Chiefs pick Jonathan Taylor over CEH - that's another phenomenal pick. If the Bills pick Najee Harris, that's bad; if the Bills pick Travis ETN, that's phenomenal.

 

Yeah... You didn't listen to the pod. That's fine. If you want to do so, and come back with a reasoned argument, be my guest. If you want to just assert that you're right no matter what, I'll take that into account, and react accordingly.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

In terms of value - of course running back isn’t a smart team building decision in the 1st Round.  I think most of us can agree on that.  
 

Two things:

 

1) Can Etienne be more than a RB?  Can he be a Kamara/McCaffrey type?

 

2) Are we “team building”?  I’d argue that being slotted at 30 means you are no longer team building.  Are the Chiefs team building?  No, they are simply adjusting... adjusting to fit cap constraints and re-tooling to stay on top of the AFC and win another Super Bowl. 
 

CB/EDGE certainly have more positional value in the 1st Round, but do they help us get to, and win, the Super Bowl more than Etienne?

1. I don't want a Kamara/McCaffrey type, because those kind of guys take over your offense and you become checkdown dependent. Yes, they're great players, but your offense becomes easy to defend. Let McCaffrey catch 12 balls for 8 yards apiece, let Kamara catch 10 passes. It's a running back centric offense designed around one player. 

 

2. The Bills have obvious needs on the Offensive Line, Defensive Line and Cornerback. That's where this pick should be targeted. 

26 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

The devaluing of RBs is in regards to the 2nd contract. "Do not sign RBs to a long-term deal beyond their rookie deal"

 

That is irrevelant to ETN helping Josh and the Bills get over the top within the next 5 years on his rookie deal.

 

Some of those teams simply drafted the wrong RB in the 1st round. Example - The Pats picked Sony Michel over Nick Chubb. If the Pats pick Nick Chubb - that's a phenomenal pick. If the Chiefs pick Jonathan Taylor over CEH - that's another phenomenal pick. If the Bills pick Najee Harris, that's bad; if the Bills pick Travis ETN, that's phenomenal.

 

 

1) If Alvin Kamara was there at 30, would you draft him?

 

2) If Alvin Kamara was there at 22 and you could trade up to get him, would you do it?

 

Yes and Yes.

It's an added bonus. We should take ETN because it would lead to a Bills Super Bowl win. An added bonus is that you jump the Jets from getting their guy.

Absolutely NOT. 

[Reed83HOF]

12 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Jets are rebuilding and not in a position to use a 1st rd pick on a RB. They have huge needs everywhere especially at LB, OL, TE and CB. The Bills are in a position to do it, if they choose to. 

So they will take the rb then? 🤣

[Reed83HOF]

10 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

I had watched some of Singletary's college film, prior to the draft, but didn't think we would land him in the 3rd. Thought it was a bit early, but I do really like what he is, when at his best. 

 

And yeah, ETN's a Swiss army knife, for sure; there's no discounting that. I just cringe at the cost-benefit of taking an RB in the 1st, unless they are so supremely talented (i.e. Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Jim Brown, et al) that you cannot pass them up.

 

Well, good old Smokescreen Beane has definitely primed the engines for Thursday night; that's for sure!

 

My personal take: I would be cool with a trade up into the 20's for JC Horn, 25 or later for JOK or Greg Newsome. Other than that, unless someone incredible somehow drops like a rock, you hope there is a 1st round talent at 30, and if not, trade back for more picks in the 2nd - 4th.

30th pick is basically a second rounder. The caliber of player you get here is a boom or bust guy (expected edge players at this pick) or you are into the 2nd tier guys (CBs) with some warts. 

 

I'm ok with an RB here in relation to our draft position and in relation to our roster. A small trade up wouldn't hurt that much either. Now if we didn't have a deep roster, I would be a bit more hesitant.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Jets are rebuilding and not in a position to use a 1st rd pick on a RB. They have huge needs everywhere especially at LB, OL, TE and CB. The Bills are in a position to do it, if they choose to. 

 

The Jets will think they have their QB/PassRush/LT/WR1 covered........basically they may just see themselves short a CB1 and the Bills are short a #1 pass rusher in terms of the "big money" positions...........if they pass on a CB everything else is product you hope to acquire on day 2 or 3 either way so wouldn't discount them taking a RB just because they need a guard, LB or TE.    Those are all bad positions to be selecting in round 1.

Edited April 28, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The Jets will think they have their QB/PassRush/LT/WR1 covered........basically they may just see themselves short a CB1 and the Bills are short a #1 pass rusher in terms of the "big money" positions...........if they pass on a CB everything else is product you hope to acquire on day 2 or 3 either way so wouldn't discount them taking a RB just because they need a guard, LB or TE.    Those are all bad positions to be selecting in round 1.

The thing to bear in mind about the Jets is that not only do they have that 23rd pick; they have the 34th pick, the 66th pick, the 86th pick, the 107th pick, the 146th pick, and the 154th pick. They are loaded. If they really want someone in the back half of the second or even the tail end of the first, they easily have the ammo to move up.

 

I do think a good RT is worthy of a day one pick, especially late in the first round. I actually don't think Vera-Tucker is a bad pick for them given his talent and versatility. Yeah, he may be a dominant guard, but injuries happen and he has the talent to slide out to tackle and perform capably. Guys like that are valuable, and the Jets absolutely need a better o-line.  They finished 31st in ypa AND ypc last season, and when that happens, you gotta look at the o-line because it's the only constant. Their line was absolutely dreadful last year outside of Becton, and the depth was pathetic. They're also likely to focus on protecting their qb. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't want a Kamara/McCaffrey type, because those kind of guys take over your offense and you become checkdown dependent. Yes, they're great players, but your offense becomes easy to defend.

 

This is the weirdest argument yet, and it isn't the first time I've seen it. You're saying you don't want an elite RB because they're too good to ignore? That's crazy. Some of the conversation around RBs has gotten really out there. I get that their value is less compared to some other positions but now we're trying to argue that having a good RB is a bad thing. I don't foresee the Bills offense and Josh Allen becoming checkdown dependent or run-heavy just because we have a good RB. It would just give us another option to distribute the ball to. That would make the offense a lot more difficult to defend.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

If there ever was a draft where you want immediate production and contributions. A draft where you draft more for the now rather than 3 years from now.

 

Its this one, less in person scouting coupled with limited cap space. A team that has super bowl aspirations and little cap space could very well be looking at the draft as an extension of free agency

 

To put it in perspective if a running back with etienne's abilities was a free agent what would his salary and cap hit be vs what it will be as a late first rounder?

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the weirdest argument yet, and it isn't the first time I've seen it. You're saying you don't want an elite RB because they're too good to ignore? That's crazy. Some of the conversation around RBs has gotten really out there. I get that their value is less compared to some other positions but now we're trying to argue that having a good RB is a bad thing. I don't foresee the Bills offense and Josh Allen becoming checkdown dependent or run-heavy just because we have a good RB. It would just give us another option to distribute the ball to. That would make the offense a lot more difficult to defend.

 

Also, the Saints Offense became dependent upon Kamara because Michael Thomas was injured and their QB was a converted RB/TE or dead arm Drew Brees.

 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

30th pick is basically a second rounder. The caliber of player you get here is a boom or bust guy (expected edge players at this pick) or you are into the 2nd tier guys (CBs) with some warts. 

 

I'm ok with an RB here in relation to our draft position and in relation to our roster. A small trade up wouldn't hurt that much either. Now if we didn't have a deep roster, I would be a bit more hesitant.

 

 

 

I mostly agree, but one thing I think about is when you compare your honest ratings of ETN or Harris to the RBs in last year's draft, where do this year's RB's fit with... let's say 2020's top five RBs taken. For reference, here's the top five RBs from 2020, and where they were picked:

 

32 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire

35 - D'Andre Swift

41 - Jonathan Taylor

52 - Cam Akers

55 - J.K. Dobbins

 

Now, obviously, everyone will have their own takes on grading, but where do you see ETN and Harris fitting among those RBs?

 

Personally, I would put ETN right around Akers and Dobbins, in terms of talent and value. I'd definitely have Harris a notch or two lower (maybe in the mid-60's). You may rank him differently, but would you have ETN ranked ahead of Swift? CEH? That would be hard for me to justify, but again, ranking players is tough, and everyone's going to have a different opinion.

 

I just wouldn't have ETN up there with CEH, Swift, or even Taylor (I loved Taylor, last year; I would have given our 2nd for him, but I get that Beane saw Epenesa's value as being higher, and he probably stuck out like a sore thumb on the Bills' board, so I get it), so it's hard for me to justify trading up for ETN, and I wouldn't be the happiest if he were our pick at 30. I just see better value at CB or DE.

 

I know the counter-argument: last year's draft was stacked at RB (and probably a more stacked draft, in general), so RBs were probably pushed down the board. I get that point, and it is valid, but it still doesn't make me feel good taking an RB just because they weren't pushed down the board in a strong draft. I kind of liken it to the 2013 E.J. Manuel pick. We dropped back (good thing! Gained draft capital, and still got a QB), but it was to draft a QB in what has become--historically--the worst QB draft in the past two decades, or so. It's that kind of a feeling, for me, so I just don't like it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing to bear in mind about the Jets is that not only do they have that 23rd pick; they have the 34th pick, the 66th pick, the 86th pick, the 107th pick, the 146th pick, and the 154th pick. They are loaded. If they really want someone in the back half of the second or even the tail end of the first, they easily have the ammo to move up.

 

I do think a good RT is worthy of a day one pick, especially late in the first round. I actually don't think Vera-Tucker is a bad pick for them given his talent and versatility. Yeah, he may be a dominant guard, but injuries happen and he has the talent to slide out to tackle and perform capably. Guys like that are valuable, and the Jets absolutely need a better o-line.  They finished 31st in ypa AND ypc last season, and when that happens, you gotta look at the o-line because it's the only constant. Their line was absolutely dreadful last year outside of Becton, and the depth was pathetic. They're also likely to focus on protecting their qb. 

 

 

Agree.......I was just pointing out that Yolo was using a lazy observation to not mock a RB to the Jets while mocking one to the Bills.     The Jets probably see themselves as pretty decently stocked at the premier positions outside of CB.   They need bodies at a lot of easier to fill positions but when the Bills were desperate for OL help Beane didn't expend any first rounders on the O line and I'm sure it's perceived that it's worked out well by other teams.    The one that Beane did draft early is approaching bust status at this point.  

 

Personally,  I think the Bills best long-term use of their first round pick IS to get a LT who can excel at guard for the time being.    It's a strong position in this draft.   You are right,  it all starts there.   O Line play IS an actual force multiplier.   The thing is, you gotta' also be able to win at the edge and island positions........and those are VERY expensive.......and the Bills are sound at most of them but not great.   Diggs is a true elite WR#1,   White is great in zone but an average man coverage guy without top speed,  Dawkins is a solid middle of the league LT.    They got nothin' at pass rusher.   So they have plenty of room to improve their juice content at the edges even in the short term.    

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Agree.......I was just pointing out that Yolo was using a lazy observation to not mock a RB to the Jets while mocking one to the Bills.     The Jets probably see themselves as pretty decently stocked at the premier positions outside of CB.   They need bodies at a lot of easier to fill positions but when the Bills were desperate for OL help Beane didn't expend any first rounders on the O line and I'm sure it's perceived that it's worked out well by other teams.    The one that Beane did draft early is approaching bust status at this point.  

 

Personally,  I think the Bills best long-term use of their first round pick IS to get a LT who can excel at guard for the time being.    It's a strong position in this draft.   You are right,  it all starts there.   O Line play IS an actual force multiplier.   The thing is, you gotta' also be able to win at the edge and island positions........and those are VERY expensive.......and the Bills are sound at most of them but not great.   Diggs is a true elite WR#1,   White is great in zone but an average man coverage guy without top speed,  Dawkins is a solid middle of the league LT.    They got nothin' at pass rusher.   So they have plenty of room to improve their juice content at the edges even in the short term.    

Agreed on all fronts. How would you feel about drafting Vera-Tucker if he were to somehow fall to 30 (which I don't think will happen)? 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

26 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

 

"Don't draft a really good dual-threat RB because having a really good dual-threat RB is actually a bad thing"

 

Holy smokes. You are another level of special.

 

The level of delusion on this board has reached an all-time high.

 

 

Remind me again how many Playoff games the Panthers have won with McCaffery?

 

Remind me again how many Super Bowls the Saints have won riding Kamara (even with an All-Time QB)?

3-4 in the Playoffs since Kamara joined in 2017. 

 

My point isn't that they aren't individually great. My point is they dumb down your offense because you're constantly checking down to them. Against the Panthers, you know its going to be McCaffery on 15 rushes and another 10 dumpoffs. Your offense becomes easy to predict. You become so reliant on the easy dump off. 

 

Go ahead and draft Etienne. He should be better than Moss, Singletary and Breida. But he should only get the same number of touches that they got combined in a game, because if he becomes a focal point in your offense, you won't win more games. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Richard Noggin]

1 minute ago, FFadpecr said:

 

 

I am the only person on this entire message board who had Josh Allen as my #1 overall player on the 2018 Big Board before the draft. 

 

I am arguing with a bunch of posters on here who wanted Josh Rosen instead of Josh Allen in 2018.

 

What's hilarious is that I actually know what I'm talking about...most people on here do not. If this message board was in charge of the Bills, Josh Rosen would have been the selection in 2018.

 

I am 3 years ahead of the curve on Josh Allen. I was on the Josh Allen bandwagon before 1 poster on here ever was.

You're really something.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Richard Noggin said:

You're really something.

Enjoy it while it lasts!

[TheFunPolice]

If they are trying to move up maybe they are telling everyone it's for ETN so that some other team doesn't jump ahead of them in response 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

No way in heck should the Bills be trading up for running backs when they have three of them already on the roster. 

 

We aren't the 2020 Jets with 37 year old Frank Gore leading the backfield. 

 

Etienne is really going to put the Bills over the top?

[HeHateMe]

Initially I wanted ETN but I think that would be a bad pick... We recently spent 2 high-ish picks on RBs... We are not a running team... and ETN just doesn't seem that special to me.  He's got better speed than Moss and Singletary but I don't think that alone justifies his value at 30.

 

The biggest thing that will help the RBs is better blocking and run scheme.  No RB is good with crap run blocking... ETN would be average with the blocking our RBs got last year..  It wouldn't move the needle at all.

 

I think it's Edge or CB at 30.  Outside shot at a sleeper WR pick.  I wouldn't mind O line if a stud T drops there.

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

No way in heck should the Bills be trading up for running backs when they have three of them already on the roster. 

 

We aren't the 2020 Jets with 37 year old Frank Gore leading the backfield. 

 

Etienne is really going to put the Bills over the top?

 

Considering we were pretty close to the top last year? Maybe.

 

Especially when our biggest issue when we got close to the top was not being able to sustain drives, score points, control the clock, and keep the other team off the field.

 

We arent rebuilding. We arent even really building anymore. We are tweaking and bolstering. Now would be the time to make this kind of move.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Initially I wanted ETN but I think that would be a bad pick... We recently spent 2 high-ish picks on RBs... We are not a running team... and ETN just doesn't seem that special to me.  He's got better speed than Moss and Singletary but I don't think that alone justifies his value at 30.

 

The biggest thing that will help the RBs is better blocking and run scheme.  No RB is good with crap run blocking... ETN would be average with the blocking our RBs got last year..  It wouldn't move the needle at all.

 

I think it's Edge or CB at 30.  Outside shot at a sleeper WR pick.  I wouldn't mind O line if a stud T drops there.

He's 5'10" 200 pounds. 

 

So the dumb thing to do would be to pivot and make him a focal point of the offense. 

 

Yes, he should be better than Moss and Singletary, played at a bigger school, had more production, is 0.2 faster. 

 

If the Bills could manage his touches to 15 a game to where he doesn't become the focal point of the offense, that should make them more explosive. But if they start to feel like they have to justify the pick by feeding him 20 touches a game? That's not going to help. 

 

Also, like you said, he was billed as an elite athlete. Like Sammy Watkins though, he timed at 4.41 and 4.43. Fast, but not world class speed. And that was a college Pro Day, not the NFL combine timing.