3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

[foreboding]

Josh was the QB I wanted that night for three primary reasons.

 

1. At the various NFL talent functions, it was obvious that this kid was wayyyyy above average in his physical skillset. Also, after our array of QBs I wanted a BIG, (yes, with the coveted large hands), cannon-armed QB to play in Buffalo weather.

2. Watched some interviews and immediately liked him and thought, "Buffalo Guy"

3. Dislike Mayfield, Lamar (pre-draft) was acting as his own agent and his Mom was involved, seemed odd and made me a bit wary, also thought he was more of a runner coming out.

 

Glad we got our guy. You can win and be good very year with a 4k passer who is good for 40+ total TDs. Bills defense does not have to be near to elite, just good and opportunistic.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

This had nothing to do with outsmarting "Math". This was a data problem. Garbage data in then garbage data out. 

 

The "Math" didn't have all the information which is really hard to do. Many people understood that Allen's situation was not going to 'look good' by the the standard data used for evaluation. 

 

The data collection method was flawed (and is impossible to get 'right).

 

5 hours ago, folz said:

This was my favorite part:

 

"A more advanced system by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly found that a QB’s ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats, with dozens of previous examples. Well, based on that, Allen’s ceiling is the tall, strong Ryan Mallett. Not Allen’s projection. Allen’s ceiling."

 

"More advanced system" 😂

 

The problem I see with most football related advanced metrics - say QBR, QBASE, SB nations, the various metrics in the original article, etc. - is that they model the analytics on the results to try and make things fit and then when things fit they assume it is correct.  They have not created a valid model and then plugged numbers in because every player is different and unique.

 

Stating that a QBs ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats is just about the dumbest thing someone can say.  Yes for many QBs (especially on good college teams) they never develop, but for every Ryan Mallet - there is a Tom Brady, a Brett Farve, an Aaron Rodgers, a Patrick Mahomes, and yes a Josh Allen.

 

You can tell how bad some of their info is when a guy like college Matt Ryan is on par and they skip him to focus on Josh McCown.  The NFL scouts knew he had talent and the analytics dweebs used every computation to say how bad he was - especially compared to Baker, Darnold, Rosen, and even Rudolph.  They still have no idea what to make of him because each year he takes their well laid “Math” and destroys it and when things don’t fit the analytics guys just skip him and go on to the next guy.

[Green Lightning]

Makes you appreciate Beane's judgment and stones to grab a guy so universally panned - and I was chief among the naysayers. So Beane did outsmart them all and I am happy to eat crow. 

[Logic]

I confess: I bought into all of the anti Josh Allen hype. I was team "anyone but Josh".

Moreover, aside from all the stuff from national pundits and draftniks, it was the Bills' previous two 1st round quarterback selections that scared me off of Allen: both were guys with great physical talent and big arms, but questionable accuracy and decision making. I saw Allen as just another JP Losman, just another EJ Manuel.

I had no idea he was a running threat. I had no idea that he had the heart and will of a lion and the unbridled hatred of losing necessary to become great. Instead, I coveted the throwing accuracy of Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen. I also did not foresee the rapid shift the NFL would take toward mobile QBs who can improvise and make their best plays out of structure, and away from immobile, pure pocket passers. I was looking for a QB like the ones I had seen succeed from 1998 to 2018, rather than anticipating which way the league was heading. 

When Goodell announced the pick, the split second between when he said "Josh..." and "....Allen" seemed to last an eternity. I was immediately depressed.

It didn't take me long to come around. As soon as we drafted him, I said "welp, he's a Bill now, so I'm gonna root like hell for him no matter what". I turned on "every throw" cut-ups from every college game of his I could find. Watching the footage and asking myself "what did Beane and McDermott see in this guy? What did they see that I (and so many others) did not?", I began to see his throws through new eyes. Maybe (probably) it was just a case of talking myself into liking him rather than being down in the dumps, but by the end of all those clips, I thought "This kid could be something". By the end of the Vikings game in his rookie season, I was all in.

I've never, ever been so glad to be so wrong.

 

[K-9]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

I confess: I bought into all of the anti Josh Allen hype. I was team "anyone but Josh".

Moreover, aside from all the stuff from national pundits and draftniks, it was the Bills' previous two 1st round quarterback selections that scared me off of Allen: both were guys with great physical talent and big arms, but questionable accuracy and decision making. I saw Allen as just another JP Losman, just another EJ Manuel.

I had no idea he was a running threat. I had no idea that he had the heart and will of a lion and the unbridled hatred of losing necessary to become great. Instead, I coveted the throwing accuracy of Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen. I also did not foresee the rapid shift the NFL would take toward mobile QBs who can improvise and make their best plays out of structure, and away from immobile, pure pocket passers. I was looking for a QB like the ones I had seen succeed from 1998 to 2018, rather than anticipating which way the league was heading. 

When Goodell announced the pick, the split second between when he said "Josh..." and "....Allen" seemed to last an eternity. I was immediately depressed.

It didn't take me long to come around. As soon as we drafted him, I said "welp, he's a Bill now, so I'm gonna root like hell for him no matter what". I turned on "every throw" cut-ups from every college game of his I could find. Watching the footage and asking myself "what did Beane and McDermott see in this guy? What did they see that I (and so many others) did not?", I began to see his throws through new eyes. Maybe (probably) it was just a case of talking myself into liking him rather than being down in the dumps, but by the end of all those clips, I thought "This kid could be something". By the end of the Vikings game in his rookie season, I was all in.

I've never, ever been so glad to be so wrong.

 

Per the bold, that’s perhaps is best attribute. I mean he actually hates losing more than he loves winning. Heart of a lion, indeed. 

[RyanC883]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

 

 

De-licious.

 

sports analytics that try to predict future outcomes rely upon way too many variables.  

[mbs]

I had watched every "all the throws/runs" for Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson plus most of them for Baker and some for Rudolph. I didn't bother watching Allen because the numbers nerds convinced me he was terrible. I might have yelled a bad word at high volume when he was drafted.

 

Then I watched his video and I could at least see what the team was seeing (some truly great stuff with too much sloppy). But it wasn't until YardsPerPass on twitter suggested watching Allen's film and then (re)watching any of the others to compare what Allen had to deal with. It was the best football fan depression cure I ever got. I slept just fine after that. (Of course, it was maybe four in the morning at that point.)

 

I'm a homer so I quickly came around and expected him to work out, though I never expected the loft and touch pass to happen. As it has, I could not be happier.

[Saxum]

I thought Ravens were going to trade up to get Allen.  He is type of QB they usually signed - tall, strong, big armed and perfect replacement QB who sits a year.

 

Never figured Ravens were going to take a RB as QB, generally not their style.  Too Tebow-ish.

 

Darnold seemed to type teams liked and not want. Another CA QB.

 

Could not figure out Baker Mayfield.  Texas QB did not seem to fit AFC East.

 

I was worried we would get Rosen as leftover and generally hate California QBs and completely unsuitable for AFC East.

 

 

 

 

[folz]

5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

The problem I see with most football related advanced metrics - say QBR, QBASE, SB nations, the various metrics in the original article, etc. - is that they model the analytics on the results to try and make things fit and then when things fit they assume it is correct.  They have not created a valid model and then plugged numbers in because every player is different and unique.

 

Stating that a QBs ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats is just about the dumbest thing someone can say.  Yes for many QBs (especially on good college teams) they never develop, but for every Ryan Mallet - there is a Tom Brady, a Brett Farve, an Aaron Rodgers, a Patrick Mahomes, and yes a Josh Allen.

 

You can tell how bad some of their info is when a guy like college Matt Ryan is on par and they skip him to focus on Josh McCown.  The NFL scouts knew he had talent and the analytics dweebs used every computation to say how bad he was - especially compared to Baker, Darnold, Rosen, and even Rudolph.  They still have no idea what to make of him because each year he takes their well laid “Math” and destroys it and when things don’t fit the analytics guys just skip him and go on to the next guy.

 

Yeah, I caught that too. I had to reread it a couple of times...nope, no mention of Matt Ryan (who on the chart was "below average" like Josh). Not even a sidenote of, "well, Ryan is an outlier." The writer just pretends like he isn't even on the list. (Or maybe he doesn't consider Ryan a successful NFL QB, which is also crazy.)

 

Just goes to show the lengths some people will go to promote a certain opinion or agenda. They feel so strongly about it that they demand everyone else agree. The writer of the article threw in a lot of "but who knows how it will play out" sentiment to try and come across as unbiased---like he's just presenting the facts. But boy did he dig to find every crappy statistic, or like-minded "analyst" to paint the picture that Josh will not succeed. (Basically, it would take a miracle according to the article title.)

 

I don't know, I will never understand what happened with Josh pre- and post-draft. The negative opinions seemed so personal. A lot of these people didn't just think he wouldn't succeed. They were rooting for him to fail. Like they were angry at him. And Josh is like the nicest guy---I don't know if I have ever seen a rookie win over a veteran locker room as quickly as he did---even with the so-called "Twitter scandal." And maybe for some, those leaked tweets at draft time did it, but that's not the whole story, because (1) it started long before the Tweets were released, and (2) if anyone took the time to look into that story they would quickly see that Josh wasn't some racist, it was just a young kid repeating a joke he heard on a sitcom, and some rap lyrics. It's just hard to fathom the animosity that has been directed at him. Thank goodness Josh has a tough skin and just let's it all all fuel his play (as if he wasn't already competitive enough).

Edited April 27, 2021 by folz

[machine gun kelly]

For all the pundits who now are claiming revisionist history on Josh, one guy who had him pegged right for once was Kiper. He vehemently argued fir him on tape pre draft Allen would surprise people.  I still remember the argument he made back then that Josh lost three starters to the NFL his senior year at Wyoming.

 

I know he was picked 7th, but in five years he’ll go down as a steal and the best QB of the 18 draft.  Some badwagoners are still claiming Lamar, but he won’t remain that fast forever.  Allen will keep improving and McBean will keep building a solid team around him for years to come.  Josh will have the same coach and GM for the forseeable future.  He even has the same OC for at least his first four years.  Someday Daboll will probably get a HC somewhere, but Allen’s foundation will still be there, and can handle other OC’s.

 

I don’t know if we can beat the Chiefs yet, but they are our real competition.  I’m not sold on Wentz although Reich has built a very nice sound team in the Colts.  The Steelers are in decline, the Pats will only rebound of BB finds a way to pull off a draft day trade with SF for JG, and Miami may improve, but not enough with Tua to really push us.  It’s a tipsy tour you world to think Cleveland could be some real competition for us in the AFC.

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

Yeah, I caught that too. I had to reread it a couple of times...nope, no mention of Matt Ryan (who on the chart was "below average" like Josh). Not even a sidenote of, "well, Ryan is an outlier." The writer just pretends like he isn't even on the list. (Or maybe he doesn't consider Ryan a successful NFL QB, which is also crazy.)

 

Just goes to show the lengths some people will go to promote a certain opinion or agenda. They feel so strongly about it that they demand everyone else agree. The writer of the article threw in a lot of "but who knows how it will play out" sentiment to try and come across as unbiased---like he's just presenting the facts. But boy did he dig to find every crappy statistic, or like-minded "analyst" to paint the picture that Josh will not succeed. (Basically, it would take a miracle according to the article title.)

 

I don't know, I will never understand what happened with Josh pre- and post-draft. The negative opinions seemed so personal. A lot of these people didn't just think he wouldn't succeed. They were rooting for him to fail. Like they were angry at him. And Josh is like the nicest guy---I don't know if I have ever seen a rookie win over a veteran locker room as quickly as he did---even with the so-called "Twitter scandal." And maybe for some, those leaked tweets at draft time did it, but that's not the whole story, because (1) it started long before the Tweets were released, and (2) if anyone took the time to look into that story they would quickly see that Josh wasn't some racist, it was just a young kid repeating a joke he heard on a sitcom, and some rap lyrics. It's just hard to fathom the animosity that has been directed at him. Thank goodness Josh has a tough skin and just let's it all all fuel his play (as if he wasn't already competitive enough).

 

Totally Agree - my feelings on the JA opinion deal is that he was the perfect example of Analytics versus Scouting.  
 

The traditional scouting side loved his arm, legs, mind, and the offense he came from.  They looked at him as unmolded clay that could be shaped into a franchise QB with a little patience.

 

The analytics guys put him in their made up formulas and everything points to a draft bust.  The analytics guys over the last few years had been making major inroads into the sport and Josh became that flash point.  
 

If he succeeds it shows there are major analytics flaws in their data models that traditional scouting can overcome and if he fails it was another dagger in the heart of traditional scouts.  Since the majority of opinion writers are not traditional scouts and do not have traditional access to the players - they rely on the analytics and therefore mostly fall on that side and therefore Josh must fail.

 

The old school scouts and guys like Mel Kiper were much more positive because they they have seen these players succeed and he fits the perfect success model that scouts drool over.

 

Josh Allen just became the analytics guys worst nightmare because not only is he an outlier, but he is a huge outlier suggesting their data and models need correction.  This came on the huge analytics failure in the Cleveland front office and I think was just to much for guys like Sam Monsoon and others at PFF and other analytics firms - Rather than accepting that models needed further enhancements- it was easier to push the bust narrative and continue to hope for failure and to downplay every positive thing he does.

[North Buffalo]

14 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

When Shady McCoy originally practiced with Josh he basically said he you could tell he’s special...that whole the tape doesn’t lie and plugging numbers in a spreadsheet never takes into consideration other factors and that’s why analytics guys should stick to baseball and if you should leave your starter in to pitch to a lineup a third time 

That is why I have always criticized multi regression stats... and I minored in them in college.... basically they try and find the most common things that move in a direction and try and predict the likelihood that something will move in a certain direction.  Problem is stats dont predict causality only that there is a likely relationship, Eliminating other less likely relationships.  Also they are less predictive when not enough data is available and in this case Josh is/was a case study in both less data and elimination of other potential factors including the ability to improve... something exceedingly hard to quantify.  Which is why eye test and interviews on personality were so important to the Bills decision to draft him so high. 

Edited April 27, 2021 by North Buffalo

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

This had nothing to do with outsmarting "Math". This was a data problem. Garbage data in then garbage data out. 

 

The "Math" didn't have all the information which is really hard to do. Many people understood that Allen's situation was not going to 'look good' by the the standard data used for evaluation. 

 

The data collection method was flawed (and is impossible to get 'right).

 

Nope.  It wasn't "garbage".  His rookie year mirrored the concerns noted in his predraft evals (and data).

 

He got a lot better over 2 years. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The analytics world in general has become as biased as the "old" scouting world. It's human nature for most, have a little success, and you've got it all figured out, the formula is...... The really smart folks, the people at a level above your normal decision maker will look at everything and know that they don't know everything. 

Edited April 27, 2021 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[colin]

this baseball stat nerd trash has no place in football (ok, it has some place, but not like in baseball).

 

for data to be applied meaningfully for statistics, you either need a huge amount of it, or you need "quality" data where everything is as close to IID (independent and identically distributed) as possible.  for pitching in baseball, the height of the mound, distance to the batter, and pitch conditions are as close as makes no difference to identical, and there is no time pressure on the pitcher.  there is enough data for stat nerds to get a bunch of it for all different situations (number of runners on bases, vs different handed batters, after a certain number of pitches, whatever).

 

in football, the formation of the O vs the formation of the D changes a lot, you can get a chunk of data vs say a blitz, or a specific coverage type, but the players on the field for both teams, down and distance, time left in the game, time left on the play clock, score of the game, and weather and field conditions are all over the place.  you also have different play calls for both the O and the D, and sadly you have various levels of injury to the different players on the field.

 

given these conditions and variables upon variables, you have to actually scrub all your data, which means watching film and breaking things down.  even then, you don't see all of the factors (injury data, which play was called or changed pre snap, etc).  if you watched film of josh allen in college, you noticed (as was pointed out succinctly in this thread) when he had his feet right, he was magic w the ball.  you also saw him buy time and run around like a man possessed.

 

when he got goofy w his feet, the ball came out wrong.  he did that too often, and too often in his first two seasons (still does it sometimes, but look at mahomes in the super bowl and you know pressure and conditions in the game will break anyone's mechanics).  the "excuse" for that was clear, he was raw and IMO not coached well enough in college.

 

when all those former NFL qb's did their tests on accuracy in very controlled conditions, he blew everyone else out of the water.

 

now, people have opinions, and that's fine.  aikman figured allen couldn't be accurate as recently as the past season (he's a goofy boozer trying to relive his glory days while simultaneously drinking away the memories of his shameful past), but at least aikman has throw a couple footballs.  these noodle armed needle peened dorks who vomit neck bearded snark all over the internet take dirty data, shove it into their toy models as if it were IID and clean, and fart out intelligence lowering drivel and then double down on it like they double up on their estrogen filled hop sludge meme beers and novelty food into their chubby unsculpted maws.  they are not to be taken seriously, and they suck.

[aristocrat]

nerds

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think the biggest X factor for Josh was his ability to run. Nobody seemed to see that and it kept him on the field until his passing came around.  

 

I definitely missed on his legs. Now it is fair to say that I missed on how likely he was to reach his ceiling too but the thing that really made me leery on Allen was his floor which I thought was really low. Imagine Josh's rookie year if he wasn't able to run... it would have been ugly and who knows then what direction things would have gone in. I am not claiming I'd have nailed Josh Allen if I'd spotted his legs. I still would have said the chances he reaches his ceiling would be reasonably slim because he needed work as a passer and I'd have still been too low on him but it would have raised his floor for me for exactly the reason you say. It allows you to remain competitive on the field while the game slows down and you develop as a passer. 

[eball]

It's a fun read.  Nobody but the Bills (and perhaps a few other teams) bothered to dig beneath the surface, as I've said many times, to understand his relative newness to the QB position and overall lack of reps, combined with his heart, leadership, intelligence, and desire.

[Gordio]

17 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

This sums up their problem: Josh Allen was hyped for a full year before the 2018 NFL Draft as a potential No. 1 pick, and he went No. 7 to the Bills, all to the bafflement of pretty much everyone not employed by the league.  

 

The reason they were so baffled is because the people employed by the league know that you can't interpret what a player is doing by looking at a bunch of stats.  You have to look at the player on tape & in person.  You have to interview the man to know how he thinks.  The Bills looked at the video of every down Josh Allen played.  The Bills went to watch him play live & watched him both on the field & on the sidelines.  The Bills interviewed him 3 or more times face to face.  The Bills understood that in a game played in horrible weather Josh carried his team, while the guys looking at stats saw a poor performance & probably compared those game stats with one of the So-Cal QBs playing in the sun.  

 

When guys sitting in some office peruse stats instead of viewing hours of tapes, watching games live & talking to the players, they will never understand why the NFL professionals have a different opinion than them.  Now not all franchises are as diligent as the Bills were in scouting Josh.  That's why head cases like JaMarcus Russell, who Matt Millen personally warned Al Davis not to draft after a terrible interview with him, and Ryan Leaf, who was rude to Indy's management and came in out of shape at the combine, get drafted 1 or 2 in spite of flaws that would get them completely written off the Bills draft board. 

 

 

 

This is an excellent post, well done sir.  I had some serious doubts about Allen.  My doubts came from the fact that in his two biggest games against the stiffest competition he would play in College(Oregon & Iowa) he was absolutely horrible.  Look up his stats they ere awful.  I started to change my tune on him when I went out for drinks for happy hour around Christmas time his last year at Wyoming with my boss, his son and his one friend.  They were back for winter break and his son's friend went to Wyoming.  This kid went on & on about Allen, saying he is a born leader, saying he just has a presence around campus, how everybody likes him that is around him, he also said they were literally pulling kids out of class to fill out the WR position that last year he played at Wyoming.  Said he had no one to throw to.  Looking back the reports on Rosen was he was a jerk and wasn't liked by his teammates.  I took Rosen off my board when I saw him opening day against A&M.  They were down big and came back, Rosen was terrific in that game in the second half.  Gus Johnson could stop raving about him.  Rosen threw the go ahead score with under a minute left.  The whole UCLA bench was going nuts.  Something caught my eye though, Rosen was jumping up and down around the field by himself, no one was there to congratulate him.  I said right there his teammates can't stand him and really wanted nothing to do with him being the face of the Bills.    

[Captain Hindsight]

I wasnt sure until Allen's first start against the chargers. He made one sideline throw that moved so fast and was so on target I was in shock. I'd never seen such velocity on a football. I knew then Allen had a great shot to be the QB we now see