3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

[MJS]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold text, that’s exactly my point about educated guesswork. The punditry lacked that insight and so in that sense, the stats lied to them in a huge way. We can agree to disagree on lying stats, but imo, they lie a lot if people make wrong decisions based simply upon them, which was the case with Allen, obviously. 

They just didn't do their due diligence. But most had Allen projected very high. Almost everyone agreed he would be a 1st round pick. Some just thought he was too risky.

 

A guy like McShay admitted how lazy he was when he didn't believe that someone would watch all of Josh Allen's rookie games, showing that he was willing to trash Allen without even doing the homework to watch him play.

 

Lots of people in the media don't do enough digging. They see a number and make a conclusion, but don't do any digging to see why the number was what it was and how other numbers compare. It's just lazy and bad guesswork. But the number is solid and still tells a good story if you do the digging.

[Big C]

Not on the forums much between the Super Bowl and the draft but I love stopping in to read threads like this that make

me feel all giddy inside about Josh Allen and how far this team has come in the past few years. 

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

They just didn't do their due diligence. But most had Allen projected very high. Almost everyone agreed he would be a 1st round pick. Some just thought he was too risky.

 

A guy like McShay admitted how lazy he was when he didn't believe that someone would watch all of Josh Allen's rookie games, showing that he was willing to trash Allen without even doing the homework to watch him play.

 

Lots of people in the media don't do enough digging. They see a number and make a conclusion, but don't do any digging to see why the number was what it was and how other numbers compare. It's just lazy and bad guesswork. But the number is solid and still tells a good story if you do the digging.

What good story did Allen’s college numbers tell about him and to whom? From all appearances they told a bad story to the pundits who believed what those numbers said and their opinions were based entirely on that bad story. The story was obviously wrong; a lie if you will.

 

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Twain was right. 

[Warcodered]

Not for nothing but "outsmart math" is such a stupid thing for someone who believes in analytics to say.

Edited April 26, 2021 by Warcodered

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

This sums up their problem: Josh Allen was hyped for a full year before the 2018 NFL Draft as a potential No. 1 pick, and he went No. 7 to the Bills, all to the bafflement of pretty much everyone not employed by the league.  

 

The reason they were so baffled is because the people employed by the league know that you can't interpret what a player is doing by looking at a bunch of stats.  You have to look at the player on tape & in person.  You have to interview the man to know how he thinks.  The Bills looked at the video of every down Josh Allen played.  The Bills went to watch him play live & watched him both on the field & on the sidelines.  The Bills interviewed him 3 or more times face to face.  The Bills understood that in a game played in horrible weather Josh carried his team, while the guys looking at stats saw a poor performance & probably compared those game stats with one of the So-Cal QBs playing in the sun.  

 

When guys sitting in some office peruse stats instead of viewing hours of tapes, watching games live & talking to the players, they will never understand why the NFL professionals have a different opinion than them.  Now not all franchises are as diligent as the Bills were in scouting Josh.  That's why head cases like JaMarcus Russell, who Matt Millen personally warned Al Davis not to draft after a terrible interview with him, and Ryan Leaf, who was rude to Indy's management and came in out of shape at the combine, get drafted 1 or 2 in spite of flaws that would get them completely written off the Bills draft board. 

 

Excellent. We don't know what the insiders know.  We think we do, but we don't. 

[Albany,n.y.]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Excellent. We don't know what the insiders know.  We think we do, but we don't. 

Sometimes the insiders don't know what they're supposed to know.  When I read what the Bills did in scouting the QB class of 2018, it became pretty obvious that they were zeroed in on doing everything necessary to find the right QB and many other organizations, including some of our previous ones, don't take the leave no stone unturned approach that Beane & the rest did.  You usually don't hear the horror stories until after the guy busts, but when you hear them you realize that the team that drafted a bust who was a take the money & run guy didn't do their homework.  Then there are the players with high character who aren't good enough.  Do you think Nix & Whaley watched every down that EJ played in college?  There were fans of Florida State who watched him throughout his college career who couldn't believe that the Bills took him in the 1st round.  Odds are they saw him play a lot more than Nix & Whaley did.  I think the Bills fell in love with EJ because he came off so well in interviews with them they never bothered to analyze the tape the same way Beane & the Bills scouts did with the class of 2018.  I once described EJ as a guy you would want your daughter to marry, but you wouldn't want him playing QB for your football team.   

[Inigo Montoya]

Draft Night Confessions

 by Inigo Montoya

 

1.   I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

2.  I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

3.  I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB.

 

4.  I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him.

 

5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

[dezertbill]

3 hours ago, Wagon Circler said:

Stats don't measure heart.

Josh has a lot of that.

So does Tom Brady.  Same thing

Edited April 26, 2021 by dezertbill

[KingBoots8]

Full disclosure on my reaction to the draft... but first, some background.

 

My house had flooded 2 weeks prior and I was in the midst of tearing the walls apart whenever I was not at my job. I was literally moving my then wife and 3 children into a hotel for the next 2 months and the draft was starting. Came downstairs and watched with a bunch of businessmen in the dining room/sitting area while my wife put the kids down. 

 

I get down there by pick 4. Hang out with these guys for a few pics and just shoot the breeze. Then it happened: trade up.

 

The guys there know I’m a Bills fan. I was sitting with a Jets fan, Broncos fan, Pittsburg fan, and Giants fan. Very mixed bag. 
 

Josh gets called and my jaw hits the floor. We took a guy who I was terrified of- not because I doubted his skill but every regime before McDermott would have ruined him. Wasn’t used to a competent coaching staff yet.

 

I look over at these guys: Bronco fan and Giant fan are legit jealous. Jet fan was laughing because everyone thought Darnold was going to take over the AFCE, and the Pitt fan was indifferent.

 

nearly exact quotes I heard:

 

Bronco fan: “I’d literally kill to have that kid on my team.”

 

Giant Fan: “He might be the best QB in the draft in my opinion.”

 

Steelers fan: “I mean he isn’t any worse than any of your last few QB picks (true)”

 

Jets fan: “YOU PASSED ON ROSEN OMG WHAT ARE THEY DOING?!”

 

 

I went through every emotion (except anger- I wasn’t mad at the pick), but by the end I was like “highest ceiling, coach seems like he knows what he’s doing, he’s gonna be a project so he has time to sit and learn, and he seems like a good kid with a good story. He can do this”

 

^^^he sure can.

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by KingBoots8

[chris heff]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I like the old saying "anyone with half a brain can make any statistic say whatever they want".

How about this one, “78% of all statistics are made up”.

[PromoTheRobot]

The author Jason Kirk has no Twitter account where people can shame him for this comic essay.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Sometimes the insiders don't know what they're supposed to know.  When I read what the Bills did in scouting the QB class of 2018, it became pretty obvious that they were zeroed in on doing everything necessary to find the right QB and many other organizations, including some of our previous ones, don't take the leave no stone unturned approach that Beane & the rest did.  You usually don't hear the horror stories until after the guy busts, but when you hear them you realize that the team that drafted a bust who was a take the money & run guy didn't do their homework.  Then there are the players with high character who aren't good enough.  Do you think Nix & Whaley watched every down that EJ played in college?  There were fans of Florida State who watched him throughout his college career who couldn't believe that the Bills took him in the 1st round.  Odds are they saw him play a lot more than Nix & Whaley did.  I think the Bills fell in love with EJ because he came off so well in interviews with them they never bothered to analyze the tape the same way Beane & the Bills scouts did with the class of 2018.  I once described EJ as a guy you would want your daughter to marry, but you wouldn't want him playing QB for your football team.   

When they're being frank, the Pegulas admit they didn't do their homework when Rex was hired. 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Draft Night Confessions

 by Inigo Montoya

 

1.   I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

2.  I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

3.  I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB.

 

4.  I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him.

 

5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

I second that entire list, 👍

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Draft Night Confessions

 by Inigo Montoya

 

1.   I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

2.  I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

3.  I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB.

 

4.  I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him.

 

5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

 

Inconceivable!

[Boxcar]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

 

 

De-licious.

Ah, that's why PFF took so long to apologize to Josh Allen. Damn, it's like they wanted him to fail.

[BigAl2526]

Stats have value, but there are other factors as well.  It's not just "heart" whatever that is.  It's also opportunity.  For whatever reason, Josh Allen did not have the opportunity to participate in a big time high school program.  That led to him not getting a real opportunity to go to a 4 year college with a chance to start.  Instead, he went to a small time community college.  Even that did not get him a scholarship offer from a division 1 school.  He always had to settle for leftovers.  A kid can react to the lack of opportunity by giving up, or he can decide he's going to outwork everybody else and prove them wrong.  Fortunately, Allen had the raw talent to succeed and personality wise, he turned out to be the latter, a guy who is going to outwork and out compete everybody else, and prove them wrong.  

 

I'm sure the Bills scouting staff crunched all the numbers, including pro day performance, but fortunately they dug deeper and talked to Josh Allen's coaches along the way.  Of course, they interviewed Allen as well.  So I'm going to give some credit to Brandon Beane.  It's about analytics, but not just about analytics.  He made a decision based on his belief that the intangibles he and the scouting staff sensed in Allen from all the extra work they did, that he was better than his stats.

 

It should be noted that the Bills were not the only team impressed with Allen.  You may recall that the Arizona Cardinals were heavily rumored to be planning to take Josh Allen when Buffalo traded up to ***** him out from under their noses.  Nobody can prove that, but it's reasonably plausible.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

Your haircut.

[TailgateChef]

1 hour ago, KingBoots8 said:

 

Josh gets called and my jaw hits the floor. We took a guy who I was terrified of- not because I doubted his skill but every regime before McDermott would have ruined him. Wasn’t used to a competent coaching staff yet.

 

These were my exact feelings as well.  "No way we can get the best out of that guy.  We're the Bills.  We ruin 'project' guys."  So happy to be wrong.

[Don Otreply]

24 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Your haircut.

But as an owner..., see Raiders.. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Draft Night Confessions

 by Inigo Montoya

 

1.   I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

2.  I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

 

3.  I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB.

 

4.  I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him.

 

5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

He he he.  Good stuff.   

 

I didn't like Rosen, either, but being strictly analytical about it, I had Rosen ahead of Allen.  I sat there watching the draft, looking for Rosen.   Then, just as the Bills traded up and I knew that the Bills could have either, it came to me - take the guy with the size and the arm.  I just flipped from Rosen to Allen in the 15 seconds before the Bills' pick was announced.  

 

Not only did I have no earthly idea Allen could run, I had no earthly he could do anything except throw the ball a mile.  But I wanted the athlete.  

 

McBeane knew a LOT that we didn't know.  They knew what characteristics they were looking for, and they were sure they saw those things in Allen.  No way I saw what was coming.