DrDawkinstein Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons De-licious. 11 3 8 5
K-9 Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 Lies, damned lies, and statistics. The only question mark about Allen that mattered was his sheer inexperience at the game of football in general and at quarterback in particular. Luckily, he possesses the intelligence and aptitude to compensate. And he’s gonna be that much better when he finally figures it out. 7
MJS Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 Statistics require interpretation. The numbers do not lie, but they can't capture all aspects of everything. You still have to interpret and project based on that data, which means it all comes down to guesswork in the end. 1 1
BuffaloRebound Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 I think the biggest X factor for Josh was his ability to run. Nobody seemed to see that and it kept him on the field until his passing came around. 6 1
Wagon Circler Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 Stats don't measure heart. Josh has a lot of that. 6 3 2 2
K-9 Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJS said: Statistics require interpretation. The numbers do not lie, but they can't capture all aspects of everything. You still have to interpret and project based on that data, which means it all comes down to guesswork in the end. Allen’s statistics were interpreted seven ways to Sunday by everyone and their mothers. Turns out, those numbers lied. A lot. I agree entirely about guesswork. But there’s guesswork and then there’s educated guesswork. The pundits simply weren’t educated enough about Allen when they made their guesses. 3 1
78thealltimegreat Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons De-licious. When Shady McCoy originally practiced with Josh he basically said he you could tell he’s special...that whole the tape doesn’t lie and plugging numbers in a spreadsheet never takes into consideration other factors and that’s why analytics guys should stick to baseball and if you should leave your starter in to pitch to a lineup a third time 3
Albany,n.y. Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 This sums up their problem: Josh Allen was hyped for a full year before the 2018 NFL Draft as a potential No. 1 pick, and he went No. 7 to the Bills, all to the bafflement of pretty much everyone not employed by the league. The reason they were so baffled is because the people employed by the league know that you can't interpret what a player is doing by looking at a bunch of stats. You have to look at the player on tape & in person. You have to interview the man to know how he thinks. The Bills looked at the video of every down Josh Allen played. The Bills went to watch him play live & watched him both on the field & on the sidelines. The Bills interviewed him 3 or more times face to face. The Bills understood that in a game played in horrible weather Josh carried his team, while the guys looking at stats saw a poor performance & probably compared those game stats with one of the So-Cal QBs playing in the sun. When guys sitting in some office peruse stats instead of viewing hours of tapes, watching games live & talking to the players, they will never understand why the NFL professionals have a different opinion than them. Now not all franchises are as diligent as the Bills were in scouting Josh. That's why head cases like JaMarcus Russell, who Matt Millen personally warned Al Davis not to draft after a terrible interview with him, and Ryan Leaf, who was rude to Indy's management and came in out of shape at the combine, get drafted 1 or 2 in spite of flaws that would get them completely written off the Bills draft board. 5 1 5
DrDawkinstein Posted April 26, 2021 Author Posted April 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJS said: Statistics require interpretation. The numbers do not lie, but they can't capture all aspects of everything. You still have to interpret and project based on that data, which means it all comes down to guesswork in the end. I like the old saying "anyone with half a brain can make any statistic say whatever they want".
sven233 Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) I never really understood the complete hatred of Allen and basically everyone saying he had no chance to be good. I'll be the first to admit I did not want to draft him, but it wasn't because I thought he would never be good. I didn't want him because after watching all of his games, I thought he was so raw that it would take many years for him to get to a solid level. I just had other guys that I preferred because I believed they would be more pro-ready faster. But, even though I didn't want to take him, I said all along that, given time and the right coaching, he could be the best QB out of that draft class by far for the simple reason that he was so physically gifted and superior to everyone else. It was always going to be up to him to fix his numerous flaws, many of which were related to some of the worst footwork I had ever seen. But for him to be able to fix the issues he had so quickly was truly remarkable and impressive. So yeah.....the utter hatred that Allen got and had to go through was always a mystery to me. Why is it that every other prospect is given the benefit of the doubt that if they are put into the right situation and given the best coaching that they have a chance to be a good or great NFL player? Why was it so set in stone that Josh, for whatever reason, was never going to be good no matter what and that he was even called at one point a "parody of an NFL prospect"? Never understood that. If you are good enough to be drafted into the NFL, you are an elite athlete.....one of the best on the planet. Who's to say anyone doesn't have even a remote chance of making it......especially a guy that is so gifted physically. Good on Allen for proving them all wrong. Edited April 26, 2021 by sven233 5
MJS Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, K-9 said: Allen’s statistics were interpreted seven ways to Sunday by everyone and their mothers. Turns out, those numbers lied. A lot. I agree entirely about guesswork. But there’s guesswork and then there’s educated guesswork. The pundits simply weren’t educated enough about Allen when they made their guesses. The statistics did not lie. The interpretations were just inaccurate. Beane and McDermott also interpreted his statistics, and any other data they could get on him, and interpreted it differently than others, guessing that he could succeed based on the evidence they saw. 1
The Wiz Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) This article and the panel discussion of these qbs with kiper saying he's going to be the best of them in 5 years and mcshay laughing at his are two things I read/ watch every 3-4 months. Correction, was afc east qbs. Edited April 26, 2021 by The Wiz 6 1 1 2
Warcodered Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJS said: The statistics did not lie. The interpretations were just inaccurate. Beane and McDermott also interpreted his statistics, and any other data they could get on him, and interpreted it differently than others, guessing that he could succeed based on the evidence they saw. It's been a while but I think it was mentioned when they were watching him that when his mechanics were right the ball went were he wanted it, that plus him being seemingly very coachable would make it seem like his accuracy could definitely improve. 2 minutes ago, The Wiz said: This article and the panel discussion of these qbs with kiper saying he's going to be the best of them in 5 years and mcshay laughing at his are two things I read/ watch every 3-4 months. That and Mina Kimes' screech in reaction to his pick. 1
Malazan Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 This had nothing to do with outsmarting "Math". This was a data problem. Garbage data in then garbage data out. The "Math" didn't have all the information which is really hard to do. Many people understood that Allen's situation was not going to 'look good' by the the standard data used for evaluation. The data collection method was flawed (and is impossible to get 'right). 1
folz Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 This was my favorite part: "A more advanced system by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly found that a QB’s ceiling in the pros is lower than his college stats, with dozens of previous examples. Well, based on that, Allen’s ceiling is the tall, strong Ryan Mallett. Not Allen’s projection. Allen’s ceiling." "More advanced system" 😂 3 7
Motorin' Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, K-9 said: Allen’s statistics were interpreted seven ways to Sunday by everyone and their mothers. Turns out, those numbers lied. A lot. I agree entirely about guesswork. But there’s guesswork and then there’s educated guesswork. The pundits simply weren’t educated enough about Allen when they made their guesses. The stats didn't tell the story. Not only was Josh never and inaccurate QB, he was making pin point accurate throws of the highest difficulty at Wyoming that most NFL qb's can't make. His issue was missing way too many throws due to inconsistent and lackadaisical mechanics on the easiest throws. Still marveling at this: 1 2
Warcodered Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, Motorin' said: The stats didn't tell the story. Not only was Josh never and inaccurate QB, he was making pin point accurate throws of the highest difficulty at Wyoming that most NFL qb's can't make. His issue was missing way too many throws due to inconsistent and lackadaisical mechanics on the easiest throws. Still marveling at this: We've got both ends of that pass now. 1
K-9 Posted April 26, 2021 Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, MJS said: The statistics did not lie. The interpretations were just inaccurate. Beane and McDermott also interpreted his statistics, and any other data they could get on him, and interpreted it differently than others, guessing that he could succeed based on the evidence they saw. Per the bold text, that’s exactly my point about educated guesswork. The punditry lacked that insight and so in that sense, the stats lied to them in a huge way. We can agree to disagree on lying stats, but imo, they lie a lot if people make wrong decisions based simply upon them, which was the case with Allen, obviously. Edited April 26, 2021 by K-9
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