Peter King Mock- Bills take Etienne

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, Maynard said:

I know most aren’t on board with taking a rb in the 1st (including myself), but King does make some solid points. I could quickly warm up to us taking Etienne. 

 

The difference with the Bills adding Etienne and the other Bills teams taking Spiller, McGahee and Lynch is the current Bills offense isn't relying on a RB to carry them.

[BillsShredder83]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If they go against all of the overwhelming data that tells them why to not select a RB in round 1...........not sure how then not giving him at least 200-250 touches doesn't just make it an even bigger L.    To answer your question though........I don't think you can necessarily hit the refresh button on RB's by resting them either.   Good example is LeVeon Bell.......he got 330 touches at age 24 and then his per play production dropped off 20% at age 25.   Sitting out age 26 altogether didn't even refresh his legs. 

the whole scenario seems like a no go on several levels. i really cant see them going in this direction. thanks for the input Badol!

Edited April 26, 2021 by BillsShredder83

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

The difference with the Bills adding Etienne and the other Bills teams taking Spiller, McGahee and Lynch is the current Bills offense isn't relying on a RB to carry them.

 

 

Making it even less justifiable now.

 

That was a big part of the grossly flawed rationale for the Bills selecting them when they did.

 

This first round pick shouldn't be treated as a luxury.........Beane paid a TON of cap dollars to build the roster depth the past few seasons.........it was a good decision, slow builds like you used to promote usually fail and GM's and coaches get fired..............but the reality is that they need these drafts to replenish one of the oldest rosters in the league.........the edge and island players.......the lines...........RB is probably the last place they should be looking.

[DrDawkinstein]

27 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

There is NO WAY they’re giving a rookie RB on the smaller side 18-22 touches per game in Daboll’s offense.  It just isn’t going to happen, not in 2021 and even afterwards, not unless they tweak the offense and trade Motor or Moss.  I just don’t get this thinking at all.  Where would those touches be coming from?  He’s not a “bell cow” back and he doesn’t pass block.  Are you taking the ball out of Allen’s hands to feed Etiene?  If so you’re committing coaching malpractice.

 

Realistically, if they take Etiene at 30 and don’t trade/release Motor or Moss, we’re talking 5-10 touches per game MAX in 2021 and that’s probably including KR duties.  Again, not a good ROI for a first round pick.

 

I dont see many options to get what we would normally consider a "good ROI" at our first round pick.

 

That is why I lean toward it being a CB. If someone can step in and unseat Wallace as our #2CB then that will be the biggest impact across all positions. Even a DE will be on our regular rotation, and no way does McD start a rookie over Hughes and Addison.

 

I think our expectations on ROI need to be adjusted given where we are drafting and the talent level in this draft class.

[Coach Tuesday]

19 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

The difference with the Bills adding Etienne and the other Bills teams taking Spiller, McGahee and Lynch is the current Bills offense isn't relying on a RB to carry them.

You just explained why they should NOT take a running back in round 1!  Their offense doesn’t require an elite rusher.  So either they’re wasting a high pick on a guy they don’t need, or they’re going to re-jigger the offense to feature a running back.  Either one of those paths would be laughably stupid!

 

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont see many options to get what we would normally consider a "good ROI" at our first round pick.

 

That is why I lean toward it being a CB. If someone can step in and unseat Wallace as our #2CB then that will be the biggest impact across all positions. Even a DE will be on our regular rotation, and no way does McD start a rookie over Hughes and Addison.

 

I think our expectations on ROI need to be adjusted given where we are drafting and the talent level in this draft class.

CB is a perfectly sensible pick.  Elijah Moore I could get talked into. Eichenberg if he lasts (tho I suspect Indy takes him first).  Rousseau, Paye, Tryon if they think they can mold the clay there.

Edited April 26, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

You just explained why they should NOT take a running back in round 1.  Their offense doesn’t require an elite rusher.  So either they’re wasting a high pick on a guy they don’t need, or they’re going to re-jigger the offense to feature a running back.  Either one of those paths would be laughably stupid!

 

 

Just the opposite. Because the Bills passing game is so good, adding a home run threat at RB makes the Bills that much more dangerous. Don't forget Etienne can also catch the ball. Are you going to tell me is the Chiefs doesn't need Clyde Edwards-Helaire or the Saints Alvin Kamara?

[Paup 1995MVP]

4 hours ago, billspro said:

I don’t like our edge room at all right now. We have two older players that could get worse at any moment and two rotational DEs that haven’t shown the ability to get to the QB yet. Please draft edge in round 1🙏

If we are going DE, we need to trade up a bit if Kwity Paye starts falling and get him.  The other guys aren't likely to do much for us this year.  Guys like Oweh do nothing in the NFL.  Heck he did nothing in the Big 10 at Penn State.  Everyone wants these long lanky guys to play DE and rush the passer.  As big as most Olineman are, you need some strength and  bulk to get to the QB.  Dwight Freeney was one of the best DE's of all time rushing the passer, and he wasn't even 6 feet.  Get Paye or a good CB in the 1st round if we don't have to give up too much to move up.  Otherwise all day on Etienne or Najee!!  

[Coach Tuesday]

17 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Just the opposite. Because the Bills passing game is so good, adding a home run threat at RB makes the Bills that much more dangerous. Don't forget Etienne can also catch the ball. Are you going to tell me is the Chiefs doesn't need Clyde Edwards-Helaire or the Saints Alvin Kamara?

 

Promo, I am indeed here to tell you the Chiefs don't need Edwards-Helaire.  Want proof?  They barely used him last year and almost won the Super Bowl.

 

As For Kamara, (i) he was not a first round pick; and (ii) he's far better than Etiene.

Edited April 26, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[whorlnut]

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well it is a need though, that's not an opinion. The Colts Playoff game showed a team that got zero pressure.  

 

Jerry Hughes has been a fixture here, but regardless of PFF's rating (75.3), he's not a sack master. 

 

Did anyone notice Addison last year? 

 

And after those two, the Bills have "guys".

 

Is anyone betting their paycheck on Epenesa after last season? 

In the game against Ohio State, he looked like he was on the Doughnut Diet. 

My point is, what if there isn’t a defensive end there that they like?  Do you take one just because you “need” one?  Of course not...

[Coach Tuesday]

2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

My point is, what if there isn’t a defensive end there that they like?  Do you take one just because you “need” one?  Of course not...

Tie goes to the premium position.  EDGE, LT, CB, WR.

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

There is NO WAY they’re giving a rookie RB on the smaller side 18-22 touches per game in Daboll’s offense.  It just isn’t going to happen, not in 2021 and even afterwards, not unless they tweak the offense and trade Motor or Moss.  I just don’t get this thinking at all.  Where would those touches be coming from?  He’s not a “bell cow” back and he doesn’t pass block.  Are you taking the ball out of Allen’s hands to feed Etiene?  If so you’re committing coaching malpractice.

 

Realistically, if they take Etiene at 30 and don’t trade/release Motor or Moss, we’re talking 5-10 touches per game MAX in 2021 and that’s probably including KR duties.  Again, not a good ROI for a first round pick.

WHOLE lot of agree to disagree here. 

• "There is NO WAY they’re giving a rookie RB on the smaller side 18-22 touches per game in Daboll’s offense" -- why? Devin Singletary, a significantly SMALLER player with worse draft capital than Etienne averaged 15 touches in his rookie year and it's worth pointing out that he only started 2/3 of those games. A 1st round round RB isn't going to be worth 3 more touches a game? Agree to disagree.
• "in Daboll's offense" -- a lot of people on this board talk about this like we've been the greatest show on turf for the last decade. In Brian Daboll's career as an OC, last year was the ONLY year his offenses threw the ball more than 52% of the time. Daboll's shown an ability to adjust and adapt based on his weapons, so adding a talented RB to bring more balance to the offense doesn't exactly seem like a deathknell to that player's statistics. 
• "It just isn’t going to happen, not in 2021 and even afterwards, not unless they tweak the offense and trade Motor or Moss." Aside from your opinion, what is this based on? Motor and Moss have been meh at best, and the entire point of drafting a RB in the later rounds is that they're expendable if they don't perform or if you find a better alternative. That would be this situation to a tee. Again, I'm not pushing Etienne, I'm saying IF they front office took him in the first, they wouldn't be letting a couple of very middling backs affect his path to success.
• "He’s not a “bell cow” back" Define "bell cow back" He's as big or bigger than Kamara, Ekeler, Motor (lol), Kenyon Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins.... 
• "and he doesn’t pass block." Fine, let him run routes and catch passes, because he's VERY good at doing that. There are bell cow backs who don't pass block every passing play.
• "Are you taking the ball out of Allen’s hands to feed Etiene?" In the running game? ABSOLUTELY. You want our franchise QB taking hits in the open field? I don't.

Your entire argument seems to be built around this imagined size issue and the notion that 2 underperforming 3rd round picks stand in the way of unleashing a unique weapon like Etienne. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by glazeduck

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Promo, I am indeed here to tell you the Chiefs don't need Edwards-Helaire.  Want proof?  They barely used him last year and almost won the Super Bowl.

 

As For Kamara, (i) he was not a first round pick; and (ii) he's far better than Etiene.

 

 

In fairness to who you are responding too.......nobody loved picking RB's early more than Promo.........he and Ralph were on the same page about most things and that was one of them.

 

He was literally talking up a potential 2,000 yard season and HOF for Spiller after his lone 1,000 yard season..............my infamous "CJ Spiller and the march to 2000 yards" thread was greatly inspired by his exuberance for the RB.   

[HappyDays]

58 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

The difference with the Bills adding Etienne and the other Bills teams taking Spiller, McGahee and Lynch is the current Bills offense isn't relying on a RB to carry them.

 

Yeah people talk about draft strategy in a vacuum. But it's an entirely different conversation for teams that have their franchise QB in place versus the ones that don't. If you dont have a franchise QB you should never draft a 1st round RB no matter what, because the time you have to maximize their talent won't align with your Super Bowl window. Whereas for a team already in their Super Bowl window with a franchise QB, it makes sense. As much as I'd love to upgrade the CB2, the difference between Levi Wallace and his replacement isn't going to suddenly help us stop KC. But an elite talent at RB could help us score enough to keep up with them. That to me makes it a worthwhile choice.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah people talk about draft strategy in a vacuum. But it's an entirely different conversation for teams that have their franchise QB in place versus the ones that don't. If you dont have a franchise QB you should never draft a 1st round RB no matter what, because the time you have to maximize their talent won't align with your Super Bowl window. Whereas for a team already in their Super Bowl window with a franchise QB, it makes sense. As much as I'd love to upgrade the CB2, the difference between Levi Wallace and his replacement isn't going to suddenly help us stop KC. But an elite talent at RB could help us score enough to keep up with them. That to me makes it a worthwhile choice.

The Bills did and do “score enough” to keep up with KC.  What you’re really talking about is being able to score faster - and a running back doesn’t help there.  To the contrary, most teams feature running backs to help them score more slowly!  The goal is to keep the other team’s offense off the field.  Which is a fine strategy at times - but it doesn’t require an elite talent at RB, just a good overall running scheme and blocking.

 

Frankly I cannot believe some of the arguments I’m reading here in favor of taking a running back at 30 with Moss and Motor on the roster already, in a passing offense, for a team with other needs at premium positions.  I’m flabbergasted.

[whorlnut]

18 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

WHOLE lot of agree to disagree here. 

• "There is NO WAY they’re giving a rookie RB on the smaller side 18-22 touches per game in Daboll’s offense" -- why? Devin Singletary, a significantly SMALLER player with worse draft capital than Etienne averaged 15 touches in his rookie year and it's worth pointing out that he only started 2/3 of those games. A 1st round round RB isn't going to be worth 3 more touches a game? Agree to disagree.
• "in Daboll's offense" -- a lot of people on this board talk about this like we've been the greatest show on turf for the last decade. In Brian Daboll's career as an OC, last year was the ONLY year his offenses threw the ball more than 52% of the time. Daboll's shown an ability to adjust and adapt based on his weapons, so adding a talented RB to bring more balance to the offense doesn't exactly seem like a deathknell to that player's statistics. 
• "It just isn’t going to happen, not in 2021 and even afterwards, not unless they tweak the offense and trade Motor or Moss." Aside from your opinion, what is this based on? Motor and Moss have been meh at best, and the entire point of drafting a RB in the later rounds is that they're expendable if they don't perform or if you find a better alternative. That would be this situation to a tee. Again, I'm not pushing Etienne, I'm saying IF they front office took him in the first, they wouldn't be letting a couple of very middling backs affect his path to success.
• "He’s not a “bell cow” back" Define "bell cow back" He's as big or bigger than Kamara, Ekeler, Motor (lol), Kenyon Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins.... 
• "and he doesn’t pass block." Fine, let him run routes and catch passes, because he's VERY good at doing that. There are bell cow backs who don't pass block every passing play.
• "Are you taking the ball out of Allen’s hands to feed Etiene?" In the running game? ABSOLUTELY. You want our franchise QB taking hits in the open field? I don't.

Your entire argument seems to be built around this imagined size issue and the notion that 2 underperforming 3rd round picks stand in the way of unleashing a unique weapon like Etienne. 

Cool

[TBBills Fan]

2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

What is that percentage based off of? If you're drafting a RB in the first round, he's starting over your 2 failed former-3rd-round picks. If you're drafting Etienne at 30, he's getting 18-22 touches a game, and a guy with his skillset, in this offense is going to be putting up solid, if not very good numbers with that many touches. 

 

I'm not saying Etienne has to be the pick, but you're using faulty logic to reach your conclusion.

 

 

yeah there are what 70 avg plays per offense per game?

 

05% is 3.5 touches per game......
 

 

If we take him in the first, 10-15 to start the season (or more) and then bring it to 15-20....consider the games we were ahead and teams came back against us...a threat in the running game gives us an added ability to take over and close out games

 

if hes BPA Im not gonna argue, McBeane got us this far.

Edited April 26, 2021 by TBBills Fan

[glazeduck]

4 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Cool

Terrific add to the conversation, thanks for chiming in.

 

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Terrific add to the conversation, thanks for chiming in.

 

Not much can be said when you totally disagree with someone. It’s simply not worth it...

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

WHOLE lot of agree to disagree here. 

• "There is NO WAY they’re giving a rookie RB on the smaller side 18-22 touches per game in Daboll’s offense" -- why? Devin Singletary, a significantly SMALLER player with worse draft capital than Etienne averaged 15 touches in his rookie year and it's worth pointing out that he only started 2/3 of those games. A 1st round round RB isn't going to be worth 3 more touches a game? Agree to disagree.
• "in Daboll's offense" -- a lot of people on this board talk about this like we've been the greatest show on turf for the last decade. In Brian Daboll's career as an OC, last year was the ONLY year his offenses threw the ball more than 52% of the time. Daboll's shown an ability to adjust and adapt based on his weapons, so adding a talented RB to bring more balance to the offense doesn't exactly seem like a deathknell to that player's statistics. 
• "It just isn’t going to happen, not in 2021 and even afterwards, not unless they tweak the offense and trade Motor or Moss." Aside from your opinion, what is this based on? Motor and Moss have been meh at best, and the entire point of drafting a RB in the later rounds is that they're expendable if they don't perform or if you find a better alternative. That would be this situation to a tee. Again, I'm not pushing Etienne, I'm saying IF they front office took him in the first, they wouldn't be letting a couple of very middling backs affect his path to success.
• "He’s not a “bell cow” back" Define "bell cow back" He's as big or bigger than Kamara, Ekeler, Motor (lol), Kenyon Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins.... 
• "and he doesn’t pass block." Fine, let him run routes and catch passes, because he's VERY good at doing that. There are bell cow backs who don't pass block every passing play.
• "Are you taking the ball out of Allen’s hands to feed Etiene?" In the running game? ABSOLUTELY. You want our franchise QB taking hits in the open field? I don't.

Your entire argument seems to be built around this imagined size issue and the notion that 2 underperforming 3rd round picks stand in the way of unleashing a unique weapon like Etienne. 

 

 

- Taking the ball out of Allen's hands more often is ill advised.   For perspective........Allen averages about 8 yards per pass attempt.    If Etienne were to become the league's premier RB he'd average 20-25% less production than that in those extra touches.    It's a recipe for less points and more punts.

 

- More balance does not equal better.........they were second in the league in scoring playing a very tough schedule.   They could regress but the area where they should be focused on improving is big passing plays.   Their short-intermediate passing dominant game actually aids defenses in defending their run game. 

 

-Singletary has 4.8 ypc on over 300 career carries........that's A LOT.........Moss was perhaps the best pass blocking RB in the league as just a rookie and averaged more ypc than Leonard Fournette last season...........sure they could use a water bug option but the guys they have have been very good at what they do well.   Etienne has flaws too.  Contrary to popular belief, the bar to cross to be more useful than Moss and Singletary is not actually "meh".

 

-Nick Chubb would probably be a good example of a bell cow back......big and runs the ball for 5 yards per carry.   Etienne is not that.   He does come with big mileage though........over 800 career touches at Clemson though.   

 

-Protecting Josh Allen is job #1 for the organization.......and you aren't a great weapon in the pass game if you can't pass block and everyone knows it.

 

-Not sure how adding Etienne means that Josh Allen doesn't get tackled in the open field.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

After having a few mos to digest the KC loss, I've come off the rb train that I was on. However if it falls into BPA I'm on board and it could. My order on backs is Etienne (because he can catch and run routes), then Javonte Williams, then Harris.  Harris can catch too but his running traits just seem to really overlap Moss' and I think he's going to settle in nicely this year!

Good take. I love Harris out of the backfield but since I posted a couple months back that he would be my first round pick, I have switched to Etienne.  He may be the closest thing to Faulk or Tomlinson that the league has seen in a while.  I am admittedly biased as I think Thurman was the most important player in the K-gun offense.  I love RB's that can kill you in the pass game.  In many respects the league has moved on to TE/WR hybrids, but there is still a role for the pass catching RB.