My NFL Draft Big Board (Excel Doc)/ Targets for the Bills at Pick #30

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

How’s it going? Less than a week until the draft now so I just wanted to post this for anyone who is interested. The attached Excel doc is a draft cheat sheet of sorts that I’ve put together the past few years ahead of the draft for a few family and friends.

 

As a disclaimer, I do this just for fun and to prep prior to the draft/keep track of how the draft is going once it's started. I have gathered stats, pro day results (https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-pro-day-schedule-pro-day-results-tracker), Relative Athletic Scores (https://relativeathleticscores.com/2021/01/23/2021-draft-class-ras/), and some facts/bits of analysis along with some of my own notes/observations. Also note that I've taken an optimistic view of many players and often graded them based on their ceilings/potential if they were put in the right situation or scheme (we know this isn't always the case). Hopefully everyone is able to view the attached doc, but let me know if there are any issues. 

 

Outside of the targets who are guaranteed to go in the top 10 IMO, here are my ideal targets for the Bills to draft at pick #30 (most will likely be gone by the time we pick):

 

1)     Caleb Farley- might be the best defensive player in the entire draft, but could fall due to his history of back injuries. Very special player/athlete who is still learning the position and has upside. Some of the best CB tape I’ve ever seen and would allow the Bills to be more scheme-versatile.

2)     Kwity Paye- a big, physical edge who has the speed and bend of a smaller player. A converted RB with tons of upside/room to grow. Excellent vs the run as well.

3)     Alijah Vera-Tucker- very refined and versatile lineman who can play at tackle or guard. Very mobile and balanced with good footwork and hand usage. Very high floor without the huge ceiling of the previous two targets.

4)     Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah- prototype of the modern day NFL hybrid defender. Body and range of a safety combined with the physicality and block-shedding of a LB. Flies around the field with reckless abandon and has great ball skills. Someone who could help us match up against KC more effectively with his speed.

5)     Azeez Ojulari- has been miscast as a 3-4 OLB by many due to his weight, but watch his tape and you’ll see a plus run defender who has the strength and power to hold up and get into the backfield. Elite speed, flex, and bend around the edge to get to the QB. Georgia coaches loved this player, named a captain as a freshman.

6)     Greg Newsome- elite athlete with top end speed and length to play in any scheme. Would allow the Bills to mix in some man and match up with the faster WRs in the league. A very feisty defender who competes for every ball.

7)     Teven Jenkins- baddest dude in the draft, wants to embarrass defenders on every play. Mauler in the run game, should kick inside to guard and be above average to elite on the interior.  Intimidating size and fantastic athleticism.

😎 Elijah Moore- 4.35 speed and world-class short area quickness. Proven ability to beat man coverage and is electric after the catch.

9)     Jayson Oweh- arguably the top athlete in the draft. Some questions about why he didn’t have a single sack in 2020, but he generated a ton of pressures. A raw prospect who has all the physical gifts you can’t teach, but can be coached up. Insane ceiling, could wind up being the best pass rusher in the class.

10)  Terrace Marshall Jr.- overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, but was very productive when targeted and is an intriguing size/speed combo (6’3” with 4.40 speed). Big catch radius and wins above the rim.

 

Cheers and Go Bills! Can't wait to see who will be wearing a Bills cap by next weekend!

2021 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings.xlsx

[NewEra]

Awesome. Great work!!  I’ve only started to skim through so far and I’m impressed.  Can’t wait to dig in once I get some time later on today. Thanks for posting 👍🏻

[TheBeaneBandit]

Love your list! Oweh would make me nervous but I'd be thrilled with pretty much anyone else.👍

[No_Matter_What]

Amazing, thanks for posting.

[mjt328]

No Jaelen Phillips?  Or do you not think he has a chance of lasting until 30?

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Tevin Jenkins is one guy who is consistently underrated in mock drafts. Teams are desperate for young cheap tackles, and he will likely go in the top 20.

[GVINCENT]

Travis Ettiene... They are not going to stop the Chiefs or the Bucs anyway, so just keep the ball out of their hands. Run, baby run...

 

[GunnerBill]

Disagree on Ojulari. He is 3-4 only to my eye. Decent all rounder, inconsistent hands, stonewalled by pro ready tackles. .

 

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

 

Elijah Moore at #61 I'd love. Not at #30.

 

The rest I can pretty much be on board with.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

He's played some left tackle in college looked pretty good. The whole "his arms are 3/8 of an inch too short to handle pass rushers" analysis I've seen reminds me of when the Bills front office put out the opinion that Cordy Glenn could only play guard only to draft him and start him at LT.

[CommonCents]

Newsome/Marshall. Those are the two I want most. 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

He's played some left tackle in college looked pretty good. The whole "his arms are 3/8 of an inch too short to handle pass rushers" analysis I've seen reminds me of when the Bills front office put out the opinion that Cordy Glenn could only play guard only to draft him and start him at LT.

 

I heard him on Matt Miller's podcast and he himself said he much prefers playing RT and feels more comfortable there which is what his tape looked like to me too. 

 

Shame for his agent though who had spent the previous week ringing teams trying to talk up his ability at LT.

[Big Gun]

2 hours ago, GVINCENT said:

Travis Ettiene... They are not going to stop the Chiefs or the Bucs anyway, so just keep the ball out of their hands. Run, baby run...

 

Yup, if he is there, take him!

[OldTimer1960]

Nice read, seems maybe too generous with number of players with “Pro Bowl talent”.

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Disagree on Ojulari. He is 3-4 only to my eye. Decent all rounder, inconsistent hands, stonewalled by pro ready tackles. .

 

And Teven Jenkins is RT only. That is not first round value to me. Hard, hard pass.

 

Elijah Moore at #61 I'd love. Not at #30.

 

The rest I can pretty much be on board with.

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

 

I have a mid third on Basham. Just don't know how he wins in the NFL. Solid player, he will play in the league, and he will be a steady base end. But just not gonna beat NFL tackles enough for me to be higher on him.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I have a mid third on Basham. Just don't know how he wins in the NFL. Solid player, he will play in the league, and he will be a steady base end. But just not gonna beat NFL tackles enough for me to be higher on him.

Interesting.  Do you think he kind of compares with Epenesa in that regard?

[glazeduck]

Lot of good work put in here, unfortunately only 1, maybe 2 of these guys will still be on the board at 30. 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Just now, glazeduck said:

Lot of good work put in here, unfortunately only 1, maybe 2 of these guys will still be on the board at 30. 

You never know. Players you didn't expect to be first round picks (Damon Arnette last year) are taken because teams draft for need and not BPA. I never expected AJ Epenesa to available in round 2, but sometimes a guy falls to your pick and you get lucky.

[stinky finger]

57 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Gunner:  what do you think of Carlos Basham?  He isn’t the twitchy/explosive pass rusher that we would love to find, but he looks fairly fluid, has very good size and was productive, albeit at Wake Forest.  I would think he could go early to mid 2nd.

I would be surprised to see Bills’ pull the trigger on Farley with back surgery and no ability for their own Docs to examine him.  Great talent for sure, but a big risk this year.

 

I'm no doctor, but I got to believe this young buck heals.

 

 We'd be fortunate to him fall to us at #30.

 

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Love your list! Oweh would make me nervous but I'd be thrilled with pretty much anyone else.👍

Thanks! Yeah Oweh likely comes with the highest risk of the ten prospects I listed, but could also have the highest ceiling (he didn't start playing football until his junior year of high school and only played two seasons at Penn State). It's rare to be able to draft someone at #30 overall with his measurables and freak athleticism.

 

In some ways, you could think of Oweh as the edge rusher version of Josh Allen. Crazy physical traits with relatively little experience/snaps and underwhelming production. If he was the top-rated guy left when it's our turn, I'd trust that our coaching staff could develop him and the production would follow.