maddenboy Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 (edited) Just wanna chime in on the OP's point. This thread has moved off the rails. Instead of "Hey, lets read and consider and discuss this article," It has instead become "Hey, lets just fire off on whether to draft a RB in Round 1 (because the other threads on the same subject arent sufficient)" https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away Agree or not, it really is a well written and thoughtful article. Edited April 21, 2021 by maddenboy
DrDawkinstein Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, maddenboy said: Just wanna chime in on the OP's point. This thread has moved off the rails. Instead of "Hey, lets read and consider and discuss this article," It has instead become "Hey, lets just fire off on whether to draft a RB in Round 1 (because the other threads on the same subject arent sufficient)" https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away Agree or not, it really is a well written and thoughtful article. Interesting points. But I do have an issue with him using Yards Per Carry as his main stat for determining value. He keeps saying "None of these backs lead their teams in YPC as the starter". Well duh. The starter, and especially a 1st round Feature Back, is going to get way more carries than the backups. More carries equals higher denominator equals lower average. It's another case of someone knowing just enough math to make a point, but not enough math to realize why it's not a great point either.
JESSEFEFFER Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 I read his report and would generally agree with most of his points but I thought he overly relied on ypc and team wins as some sort of definitive standards. Marshall Faulk and Thurman were huge assets to their elite passing offenses. Was Thurman's ypc much different than Kenneth Davis'? Imo, that sort of back is well worth the pick but H-o-F talents are not commonly had at #30 or anywhere else. Imo, Moss is closer to the all around receiving and pass blocking back they need than Singletary. Not having him for the playoff game vs. KC probably hurt more than we know given the pressure Josh faced. Maybe Harris fits this more than Etienne but I don't think he is that much better at it than Moss is and he would unlikely get enough snaps to show it.
ColoradoBills Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, dneveu said: Neal is a gunner. Kummerow was another. Dane Jackson or Wallace can probably do it. Depends how depth charts shake out at other positions WR: Diggs, Bease, Sanders, Davis, and several guys fighting for 2 spots. Those guys likely need to play special teams to dress on gamedays. CB: White, Jackson, Wallace, Johnson, Neal - I think they draft someone here too so the competition ramps up, and again ST can be a differentiator. S: With marlowe gone, the big nickel spot is a bit more open, and they could use to add some depth here that would also participate. NE would usually carry 4 on the active roster, and dress 3. But their teams ace from the group was burkhead, who also contributed on offense. Thanks for the names of potential gunners! My other hope is that Haack does a better job with his placement and fair catches thus lessening the amount of returns. Bojo had a horrible fair catch to return ratio (6:16). Hack punted a lot more but had a 22:24 ratio.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Thanks for the names of potential gunners! My other hope is that Haack does a better job with his placement and fair catches thus lessening the amount of returns. Bojo had a horrible fair catch to return ratio (6:16). Hack punted a lot more but had a 22:24 ratio. Basically if you aren't in the top couple spots on the depth chart, special teams is a way to get you on the field on a gameday. Otherwise you're on the 53 and inactive and if there's an injury the other guy gets to step in.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 2 hours ago, DCOrange said: Etienne is definitely a big play threat. For me personally, I'm just against the idea of drafting RBs early in general and especially in this case where we've done it the last two years (and IMO have at least one starting caliber RB in Moss). I also think with an offense that spreads the defense out and tries to get them to put smaller defenders on the field, you want a powerful runner like Moss or Harris to make them pay rather than trying to put more speed on the field in Etienne. Having said that, I'll think it's the wrong choice if we go with Etienne but I at least understand he's a different kind of RB from the ones we have (outside of maybe Breida but we don't really know how big a part of the offense we plan to make him anyways) and therefore would give us a different look. So from that sense, it's justifiable even if I just think it's the wrong way to build a team. I don't think Harris is really a justifiable pick. IMO real difference making speed for a modest sized player doesn't begin until you get below 4.4 now. Etienne is a 4.5 guy at the combine IMO. Not a Jonathan Taylor 4.39 type. Fast for the limited athletes that play RB now........but I think people envision this guy devastating NFL defenses with his speed and he's not actually that guy. I also think he has a relative ton of mileage on him. 800 touches is significant for the quality of athlete that plays the RB position anymore. I know he waited to come out because the RB position was deeper in the 2020 draft but he came back and his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.4 and just didn't look as explosive to me.
BarleyNY Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 On 4/20/2021 at 11:59 AM, Rigotz said: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl." Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article. This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently. If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read. I just skimmed a bit of the article, but one thing it does not seem to address is the relative impact of other positions drafted in the first round. So first round RBs do not turn teams around? That’s what I would have expected. But other than QB, what positions do? Its point that improving the OL is more effective in improving the run game than selecting a RB high in the draft is a well worn analytics take. Still, a RB who can have a positive impact in the passing game (receiving and pass pro) as well as in the run game is valuable. I can certainly see value in a RB who is a threat as a receiver - and so can the analytics folks. The Bills trotting out 11 personnel with such a RB and a complete TE can create a lot of mismatches. They can keep the TE in line and the RB in the backfield, flex to five wide or anything in between. If all five players are genuine receiving threats defenses will have to put lighter personnel in the field - or get burned. That would certainly help the running game. That along with some better IOL play.
DCOrange Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 56 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: IMO real difference making speed for a modest sized player doesn't begin until you get below 4.4 now. Etienne is a 4.5 guy at the combine IMO. Not a Jonathan Taylor 4.39 type. Fast for the limited athletes that play RB now........but I think people envision this guy devastating NFL defenses with his speed and he's not actually that guy. I also think he has a relative ton of mileage on him. 800 touches is significant for the quality of athlete that plays the RB position anymore. I know he waited to come out because the RB position was deeper in the 2020 draft but he came back and his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.4 and just didn't look as explosive to me. Not endorsing the pick by any means but I do think Etienne looks like a 4.4 guy when he gets space to run. The YPC kinda showed how much even a great college RB needs the OLine though. They took a significant step back this season and his production dropped off a lot because of it.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said: I read his report and would generally agree with most of his points but I thought he overly relied on ypc and team wins as some sort of definitive standards. Marshall Faulk and Thurman were huge assets to their elite passing offenses. Was Thurman's ypc much different than Kenneth Davis'? Imo, that sort of back is well worth the pick but H-o-F talents are not commonly had at #30 or anywhere else. Imo, Moss is closer to the all around receiving and pass blocking back they need than Singletary. Not having him for the playoff game vs. KC probably hurt more than we know given the pressure Josh faced. Maybe Harris fits this more than Etienne but I don't think he is that much better at it than Moss is and he would unlikely get enough snaps to show it. Travis Etienne is likely closer to Kenneth Davis than he is a superstar from an era when it was harder to run the ball like Faulk or Thomas. We need to accept the reality that the type of athletes that played the RB position 25 years ago aren't signing up to play RB anymore.........and it's not a new development............they followed the money to more lucrative positions in the passing game on offense or rushing the passer or at CB.
ColoradoBills Posted April 21, 2021 Posted April 21, 2021 I've talked myself in and out of this RB question multiple times already. I'm glad Beane is the one making the decisions because I can make an argument each way! Good Luck in the Draft Brandon!
Recommended Posts