Excellent argument AGAINST drafting a 1st Round RB

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

As for the argument that late 1st round RBs recently haven't been very good players, that is again true of every other position. Look at pass rushers drafted in the range of #30. The only hit is TJ Watt. It's hard to find good players at that spot. If Henry and Chubb had been taken at the bottom of the 1st instead of in the 2nd they would have been good picks. You can't discount them just because teams misvalued them.

 

In 2016 (Derrick Henry's draft year) teams at the bottom of the 1st round picked superstars like Artie Burns, Paxton Lynch, Joshua Garnett, Robert Nkemdiche, and Vernon Butler. Any one of those teams would be better off with Henry right now.

 

The article uses Michel and Penney as examples of late 1st round RBs that didn't work out. Well Chubb was drafted that same year at pick 35. The problem wasn't taking a RB at the end of the 1st, it was taking the wrong one.

 

So overall I feel like you could replace the RB portion of the article with any other non-QB position and come away with the same conclusions.

 

Agree.

 

Possibly a bit more of an argument for RB because in general, RBs have a short shelf life in the NFL, but overall, article needs context

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The number of RBs who are above replacement level in the passing game is pretty small -- Kamara and McCaffrey come immediately to mind. Kamara in my opinion IS a guy worth keeping (he does so much more than most RBs, like Marshall Faulk), but of course he was a third rounder. LeVeon Bell was another terrific receiver, but his career went completely sideways early on, mostly because of bad decision making on his part.  

 

Agreed, Kamara and McCaffrey are not just running backs, they are offensive weapons. Kamara caught 83 balls last year. The only other one I might put in that category (though like McCaffrey he was hurt for past of last season) is Austin Eckler. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It got posted elsewhere but there was an article in some fitness magazine about Feliciano coming back from injury

https://www.muscleandfitness.com/athletes-celebrities/winning-strategy-jon-feliciano-kept-pounding-after-tearing-pec/

 

 

 

 

From what I saw, Feliciano was getting beat at times with footwork especially on stunts.  Judging by the look in his eyes in a couple of post-game pressers, I would say he was getting pretty doped up to be able to play.  That can affect reaction times all around.

 

Narcotics?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Narcotics?

 

That would be my guess.   He just had that look in his eyes - I can't describe it exactly but I know it when I see it.  IKYKWIM.

 

I think there's a reason his teammates voted him the "Ed Block Courage" award, over a guy who played 3 playoff games on a freakin' broken leg fergoshsakes.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is true with any position other than QB. I remember reading once that if JJ Watt in his prime missed a game, Vegas would only knock half a point off of Houston's spread. Does that mean elite pass rushers aren't important? Football is still a team game so one player missing a game is never going to make a huge difference.

 

Same goes for the argument that elite RBs haven't gotten their teams to a championship. Again, this is already true of most elite non-QBs in the league. The simple counterargument is that if the Bills had a Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey last year we would have been a better team with a better chance of beating the Chiefs. If you try to argue otherwise you aren't being realistic.

 

As for the argument that late 1st round RBs recently haven't been very good players, that is again true of every other position. Look at pass rushers drafted in the range of #30. The only hit is TJ Watt. It's hard to find good players at that spot. If Henry and Chubb had been taken at the bottom of the 1st instead of in the 2nd they would have been good picks. You can't discount them just because teams misvalued them.

 

In 2016 (Derrick Henry's draft year) teams at the bottom of the 1st round picked superstars like Artie Burns, Paxton Lynch, Joshua Garnett, Robert Nkemdiche, and Vernon Butler. Any one of those teams would be better off with Henry right now.

 

The article uses Michel and Penney as examples of late 1st round RBs that didn't work out. Well Chubb was drafted that same year at pick 35. The problem wasn't taking a RB at the end of the 1st, it was taking the wrong one.

 

So overall I feel like you could replace the RB portion of the article with any other non-QB position and come away with the same conclusions.

 

 

 

1) What you don't seem to understand about the "running backs don't move the line" point is why years ago it became important to note in the first place.

 

A top RB handles the ball 30%-40% of his teams offensive snaps in a game...........in theory he has FAR, FAR greater opportunity to individually alter the score/outcome of the game than any other non-QB.      

 

And yet......despite seemingly overwhelming odds that they WOULD be a key deciding factor in the outcome of game.........they have proven NOT to be..........which should be an eye opener.    Instead your take is........"well the guys who don't touch the ball don't move the line either".

 

2) Assuming a better chance to beat the Chiefs because of any individual RB is laughably "on paper" thinking.  Do people learn nothing about what happens to RB's when their team gets behind?    They get taken out of the gameplan entirely.   Derrick Henry is by far the most productive back in the league.    The Titans have made the playoffs the last 3 seasons.....fell behind in the 3 losses........in which he ultimately carried the ball 49 times for a dismal average of 2.8 ypc.     How does that change in KC when the Chiefs are on a 36-0 scoring streak passing the ball for huge yardage plays?   

 

3) It's pretty well known that you aren't likely to get a great pass rusher after the top half of round one...........but the position is definitely A LOT more difficult to fill competently than RB and subsequently far more valuable and expensive to stock.   The difference between a top pass rusher and a JAG is a lot greater than a top producing RB and a JAG RB........which is only a fraction of a yard per carry and is even more dependent on other players than the performance of a pass rusher.   They say edge players and corners are "on an island" because they actually face one-on-one matchups that they can affect with less need for assistance.     

 

4) So if the question is would Vernon Butler drafters Carolina be better off with Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?   The answer is........who cares?  I mean outside of "fantasy" football owners.   Those other teams aren't handicapped because they passed on a RB in round one......they have other issues.

 

5) Nick Chubb is a nice player.........but still his amazing 5.2 ypc career average is not nearly enough to take the ball out of the hands of a QB that throws for nearly 8 yards per attempt like Josh Allen.    Ultimately this is why the running game is devalued.    The value of a pass play dwarfs that of a run play.   Use those early draft assets on key positions that actually advance your passing game........there are other ways to be successful running the ball than drafting a RB early.    It's almost impossible to pass the ball at a high level without elite talent though.  

Edited April 21, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Eastport bills]

Why can't we have a feature back that defenses have to devote personnel to and can break long runs and take pressure off our pass heavy offense. If a prospect in the later rounds provides that fine, but Etienne and Harris seem like transcendent talents. Would a Kamara, Nick Chubb, or a McCaffrey be worth a 1st rd pick. I'm only saying if the elite edge rusher or Zaven Collins or one of the top 3 dbs are gone, an Etienne or Harris would be fine.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed, Kamara and McCaffrey are not just running backs, they are offensive weapons. Kamara caught 83 balls last year. The only other one I might put in that category (though like McCaffrey he was hurt for past of last season) is Austin Eckler. 

 

Ehh......is 3.8 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per reception really an offensive weapon or still just a RB?    Those are Kamara's averages in 7 career playoff games.   His regular season #'s are better but giving the ball to even the greatest RB is probably a less productive proposition than just chucking it at Gabe Davis..........which should say enough about the relative value of the RB position.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/20/2021 at 9:02 AM, Success said:

RB's have been steadily losing 1st round value for a reason.

 

I think most teams are starting to realize that - unless it's a generational type of talent - it's better to just improve the run blocking.  

 

I'd be shocked if the Bills went RB after picking up Breida. I think their plan is to use the backs we have & just try to improve the line & blocking schemes.

 

It's doubtful they go RB at 30. It will be a pass rusher or cb. I think we can buy time with Breida and Moss while evaluating Singletary's future. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

1) What you don't seem to understand about the "running backs don't move the line" point is why years ago it became important to note in the first place.

 

A top RB handles the ball 30%-40% of his teams offensive snaps in a game...........in theory he has FAR, FAR greater opportunity to individually alter the score/outcome of the game than any other non-QB.      

 

And yet......despite seemingly overwhelming odds that they WOULD be a key deciding factor in the outcome of game.........they have proven NOT to be..........which should be an eye opener.    Instead your take is........"well the guys who don't touch the ball don't move the line either".

 

2) Assuming a better chance to beat the Chiefs because of any individual RB is laughably "on paper" thinking.  Do people learn nothing about what happens to RB's when their team gets behind?    They get taken out of the gameplan entirely.   Derrick Henry is by far the most productive back in the league.    The Titans have made the playoffs the last 3 seasons.....fell behind in the 3 losses........in which he ultimately carried the ball 49 times for a dismal average of 2.8 ypc.     How does that change in KC when the Chiefs are on a 36-0 scoring streak passing the ball for huge yardage plays?   

 

3) It's pretty well known that you aren't likely to get a great pass rusher after the top half of round one...........but the position is definitely A LOT more difficult to fill competently than RB and subsequently far more valuable and expensive to stock.   The difference between a top pass rusher and a JAG is a lot greater than a top producing RB and a JAG RB........which is only a fraction of a yard per carry and is even more dependent on other players than the performance of a pass rusher.   They say edge players and corners are "on an island" because they actually face one-on-one matchups that they can affect with less need for assistance.     

 

4) So if the question is would Vernon Butler drafters Carolina be better off with Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?   The answer is........who cares?  I mean outside of "fantasy" football owners.   Those other teams aren't handicapped because they passed on a RB in round one......they have other issues.

 

5) Nick Chubb is a nice player.........but still his amazing 5.2 ypc career average is not nearly enough to take the ball out of the hands of a QB that throws for nearly 8 yards per attempt like Josh Allen.    Ultimately this is why the running game is devalued.    The value of a pass play dwarfs that of a run play.   Use those early draft assets on key positions that actually advance your passing game........there are other ways to be successful running the ball than drafting a RB early.    It's almost impossible to pass the ball at a high level without elite talent though.  

 

I think the impact of 4.9 YPC and 4.3 YPC is tougher to quantify than a WR who can have a higher YPC (by yards), or who catches a higher % of targets (gets open,makes plays in traffic etc, creates a higher yard per route run).  

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ehh......is 3.8 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per reception really an offensive weapon or still just a RB?    Those are Kamara's averages in 7 career playoff games.   His regular season #'s are better but giving the ball to even the greatest RB is probably a less productive proposition than just chucking it at Gabe Davis..........which should say enough about the relative value of the RB position.

 

In order to succeed in the playoffs you need to make the playoffs. I don't think an indifferent playoff record invalidates Kamara's impact as a difference maker. 

 

Not I was not arguing that Kamara is worth a 1st round pick, I wasn't, but I think running backs who can be receiving weapons as well do have more value than guys who are just runners. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think the impact of 4.9 YPC and 4.3 YPC is tougher to quantify than a WR who can have a higher YPC (by yards), or who catches a higher % of targets (gets open,makes plays in traffic etc, creates a higher yard per route run).  

 

 

Yeah what isn't hard to quantify at all though is a QB averaging 8 yards per pass attempt.     That encompasses all of the targets.........good and bad.

 

[DCOrange]

26 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Why can't we have a feature back that defenses have to devote personnel to and can break long runs and take pressure off our pass heavy offense. If a prospect in the later rounds provides that fine, but Etienne and Harris seem like transcendent talents. Would a Kamara, Nick Chubb, or a McCaffrey be worth a 1st rd pick. I'm only saying if the elite edge rusher or Zaven Collins or one of the top 3 dbs are gone, an Etienne or Harris would be fine.

I will grant that Etienne would be a different type of back for us (though maybe Breida can do some of the same stuff), but regarding Harris (who I view as the better prospect between the two both in general and specifically for our offense), I'm not sure there's much of a difference between him and Moss.

 

Piecing together their scouting reports from Dane Brugler, who had Moss as his #6 RB last year with a 3rd round grade while he has Harris #1 with a 1st-2nd round grade:

 

Moss:

Strengths:

• Elite contact balance, keeps feet moving through contact
• Punishing finisher, bounces off hits like they're nothing
• Agile runner with lateral cut-and-go skills
• Patient, but decisive once the opening appears
• Competitive pass blocker, squares up and slows pass-rushers
• Productive pass catcher
• Creates explosive plays

Weaknesses:

• Average start/stop acceleration
• Not great speed, can be caught from behind
• Durability concerns, suffered a bunch of leg injuries

 

Harris:

Strengths:

• Impressive contact balance
• Aggressive finisher
• Keeps his momentum moving forwards through contact
• Patience at the line of scrimmage but makes strong cuts when the opening appears
• Complete skills as a pass catcher
• Squares up blitzers as a pass blocker
• Only 3 fumbles at Alabama

Weaknesses:

• More quick than sudden as an athlete
• Not great speed, can't run away from defenders
• Doesn't create explosive plays
• Sometimes late to decipher running lanes/runs into his own blockers
• Inconsistent pass blocker
• Some injury concerns with various leg injuries

Their scouting reports read like pretty much identical players with the differences being that Harris fumbled it 3 times compared to Moss' 6, Harris is a better receiver (though it was a strength of Moss's as well), and Moss was the more explosive runner and better pass protector. I don't really see any reason to think Harris is a transcendent talent unless you're similarly high on Moss who we already have.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In order to succeed in the playoffs you need to make the playoffs. I don't think an indifferent playoff record invalidates Kamara's impact as a difference maker. 

 

Not I was not arguing that Kamara is worth a 1st round pick, I wasn't, but I think running backs who can be receiving weapons as well do have more value than guys who are just runners. 

 

 

I think people tend to overuse or misuse hyperbolic terms like "force multiplier" and "weapon" and it exaggerates what the actual value is.

 

                       

[Eastport bills]

51 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I will grant that Etienne would be a different type of back for us (though maybe Breida can do some of the same stuff), but regarding Harris (who I view as the better prospect between the two both in general and specifically for our offense), I'm not sure there's much of a difference between him and Moss.

 

Piecing together their scouting reports from Dane Brugler, who had Moss as his #6 RB last year with a 3rd round grade while he has Harris #1 with a 1st-2nd round grade:

 

Moss:

Strengths:

• Elite contact balance, keeps feet moving through contact
• Punishing finisher, bounces off hits like they're nothing
• Agile runner with lateral cut-and-go skills
• Patient, but decisive once the opening appears
• Competitive pass blocker, squares up and slows pass-rushers
• Productive pass catcher
• Creates explosive plays

Weaknesses:

• Average start/stop acceleration
• Not great speed, can be caught from behind
• Durability concerns, suffered a bunch of leg injuries

 

Harris:

Strengths:

• Impressive contact balance
• Aggressive finisher
• Keeps his momentum moving forwards through contact
• Patience at the line of scrimmage but makes strong cuts when the opening appears
• Complete skills as a pass catcher
• Squares up blitzers as a pass blocker
• Only 3 fumbles at Alabama

Weaknesses:

• More quick than sudden as an athlete
• Not great speed, can't run away from defenders
• Doesn't create explosive plays
• Sometimes late to decipher running lanes/runs into his own blockers
• Inconsistent pass blocker
• Some injury concerns with various leg injuries

Their scouting reports read like pretty much identical players with the differences being that Harris fumbled it 3 times compared to Moss' 6, Harris is a better receiver (though it was a strength of Moss's as well), and Moss was the more explosive runner and better pass protector. I don't really see any reason to think Harris is a transcendent talent unless you're similarly high on Moss who we already have.

What an impressive post. I must admit, you gave a lot of good information, with the Moss comparison. What's your trepidation with Etienne?. He, to me represents more of a big play threat.

[BigBuff423]

I trust Beane...whatever he decides. However, I would agree that investing in a 1st Round RB is rarely a good decision and would be happy to Draft a big man in the trenches or CB. 

 

That said, do any of us really believe that a health Christian McCaffrey wouldn't absolutely EAT in this Offense? Because IMHO, that's Etienne. Etienne is a RB, but he's also the Slot WR, Swiss Army knife of an Offense that can do so much which adds a "homerun threat" to this good unit for the Bills. Also, remember when the analytics guys said Josh Allen was a bust before he ever put on a uniform? I'm not saying Etienne is a RB version of Josh Allen, but I do refer back to my original statement: I trust Beane.

 

I think the article is insightful, well documented as it outlined their argument and adds to logical discourse for us as fans. However, we also must put into context each decision made for those RB teams as it happened in its historical view. Cardinals were referenced yet Warner was on his way out. Giants were two Eli Manning throws away from being 0-2, and the Pats had Tom Brady which trumped everything else. As for the Chiefs this year, well they went to the Super Bowl after winning it, and we all know repeating as Champs is nearly impossible to do in the contemporary NFL. Moreover, Fournette - a former 4th overall pick - was on the Bucs winning Super Bowl team and played a role. Did he lead the team in YPC? No, but he was a factor. The point is, while I can agree with the general intent of the article that run blocking has more to do with running success than a RB as a single unit or that due to the devaluation of RBs in the NFL using a 1st Round pick on a RB doesn't make logistical sense. That is NOT to say there aren't times in the context of the team it couldn't be impactful for the success of the team over the course of the Rookie contract. 

[DCOrange]

4 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

What an impressive post. I must admit, you gave a lot of good information, with the Moss comparison. What's your trepidation with Etienne?. He, to me represents more of a big play threat.

Etienne is definitely a big play threat. For me personally, I'm just against the idea of drafting RBs early in general and especially in this case where we've done it the last two years (and IMO have at least one starting caliber RB in Moss). I also think with an offense that spreads the defense out and tries to get them to put smaller defenders on the field, you want a powerful runner like Moss or Harris to make them pay rather than trying to put more speed on the field in Etienne.

 

Having said that, I'll think it's the wrong choice if we go with Etienne but I at least understand he's a different kind of RB from the ones we have (outside of maybe Breida but we don't really know how big a part of the offense we plan to make him anyways) and therefore would give us a different look. So from that sense, it's justifiable even if I just think it's the wrong way to build a team. I don't think Harris is really a justifiable pick.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would be my guess.   He just had that look in his eyes - I can't describe it exactly but I know it when I see it.  IKYKWIM.

 

I think there's a reason his teammates voted him the "Ed Block Courage" award, over a guy who played 3 playoff games on a freakin' broken leg fergoshsakes.

 

I wonder how much of that still goes on....narcotics before kickoff.

[Eastport bills]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Etienne is definitely a big play threat. For me personally, I'm just against the idea of drafting RBs early in general and especially in this case where we've done it the last two years (and IMO have at least one starting caliber RB in Moss). I also think with an offense that spreads the defense out and tries to get them to put smaller defenders on the field, you want a powerful runner like Moss or Harris to make them pay rather than trying to put more speed on the field in Etienne.

 

Having said that, I'll think it's the wrong choice if we go with Etienne but I at least understand he's a different kind of RB from the ones we have (outside of maybe Breida but we don't really know how big a part of the offense we plan to make him anyways) and therefore would give us a different look. So from that sense, it's justifiable even if I just think it's the wrong way to build a team. I don't think Harris is really a justifiable pick.

I agree, if we had to redesign the offense ,getting away from our strengths,(Josh and quality receivers in 5 wide,empty formation s)in order to maximize an elusive back, who knows if it improves us. Maybe just getting more out of Moss and Breida with Hollister as H back in passing looks.

[ColoradoBills]

The thing about the Bills RBs last year was that only Moss and Singletary were dressing for games.

IF Moss, Breida and Singletary could dress this year I think it brings some better diversity.

 

The main reason for dressing only 2 is the Taiwan Jones ST's issue.  I would love to see a replacement for him this year.

I refuse to believe that a 33 year old gunner can't be replaced.  He had 6 tackles and a dropped touchdown in stats last year.

Heck Breida played some special teams and had 2 tackles last year.

 

I hope Beane can find a ST Gunner at another depth position and free the Bills running backs to dress 3 on game day.

If that doesn't happen there is a good chance that Devin doesn't dress every game and that is a shame.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

The thing about the Bills RBs last year was that only Moss and Singletary were dressing for games.

IF Moss, Breida and Singletary could dress this year I think it brings some better diversity.

 

The main reason for dressing only 2 is the Taiwan Jones ST's issue.  I would love to see a replacement for him this year.

I refuse to believe that a 33 year old gunner can't be replaced.  He had 6 tackles and a dropped touchdown in stats last year.

Heck Breida played some special teams and had 2 tackles last year.

 

I hope Beane can find a ST Gunner at another depth position and free the Bills running backs to dress 3 on game day.

If that doesn't happen there is a good chance that Devin doesn't dress every game and that is a shame.

 

Neal is a gunner.  Kummerow was another.  Dane Jackson or Wallace can probably do it.  

Depends how depth charts shake out at other positions

WR: Diggs, Bease, Sanders, Davis, and several guys fighting for 2 spots.  Those guys likely need to play special teams to dress on gamedays. 

CB: White, Jackson, Wallace, Johnson, Neal - I think they draft someone here too so the competition ramps up, and again ST can be a differentiator.

S: With marlowe gone, the big nickel spot is a bit more open, and they could use to add some depth here that would also participate.

 

NE would usually carry 4 on the active roster, and dress 3.  But their teams ace from the group was burkhead, who also contributed on offense.