Excellent argument AGAINST drafting a 1st Round RB

[Nester]

I really like that RB1 and that RB2. 

I think that kind of threat will help Josh by making defenses hedge more. 

 

its a 30 pick, not a top 10. I am fine with it, (of course also fine with CB/DE/OL BPA)

 

 

 

 

[MrSarcasm]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It does read eerily like a number of posts I've made here...........right down to referencing the 2010 rules changes that really made it a no-doubt-about-it passing league.

 

Despite the OVERWHELMING evidence that drafting a RB in round 1 is a terrible use of a nice resource...........there will always be those who insist that THIS ONE TIME is the exception.

 

 

Well this time it is the exception because of multiple reasons, you know feelings and all.

[Billl]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Why would you ever take a RB knowing that it's foolish to pick up a fifth year option when you can grab a good CB/OT/DE whose fifth year option you'll be thrilled to get? Avoid RBs in the first round at all costs and focus on positions where -- if the player is good -- the fifth year option is something you'll want to pick up. 

The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option.

Fifth year options don’t hold much value anymore.  Stars demand extensions, and non-stars aren’t bargains at fifth year option prices. In the rare instance of needing another year to evaluate, franchise tags aren’t much higher and they come without the injury risk.

[Jay_Fixit]

10 hours ago, H2o said:

Yeah, but at that point Marshawn was using people as bowling pins in his Porsche and swiping tip money off of restaurant tables. 

While still being the best RB on the roster.

[Saxum]

47 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Exactly. I once sprained my ankle while hailing a cab for Mama Mia. I was out for about a month. It wasn't so bad though. I got a lot of crocheting done and was able to complete my ant farm.

 

Ankle sprains can be deceptively bad.  I did it on a work trip, put an ace bandage on it and continued my trip.

A couple of years later I had issues with motor control in ankle.

Visited 8 different doctors, each gave different cause and treatment except one who called it psychosomatic.

Last doctor put me in a boot and I was almost crippled. 

Doctor had an MRI on it and discovered a cyst size of golf ball causing bones, vessels, ligaments. etc put everything out of alignment.

The cyst was removed but my ankle never fully recovered.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

https://analyzethis/JPB/sportysport/rolltide

 

I don't know what I think about this.

 

Analyst J.P. Butterworth III 

 

'2020 was a strange season for all teams ,but most especially the Buffalo Bills. Few teams of recent memory struggled running the ball all the while being able to pass with ease...'

 

He goes on saying...

 

'the Bills are one piece of the puzzle from the Super Bowl and that one piece is RB. Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and were then rewarded for doing so. Will the Bills Mafia be breaking tables this Thursday or will they be rejoicing when pick 30 comes in for RB Najee Harris?'

 

 

Does he mean Pro Bowl caliber running backs like 2nd round pick Ronald Jones II?

Or is he trying to make the argument that former 1000+ yd back Leonard Fournette and former pro-Bowler LeSean McCoy were the difference for the Bucs?

 

Does he feel #32 pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire ought to have been a pro-bowler last year? Or is he arguing that former pro-bowler/all pro Le'Veon Bell (this season) and McCoy (last season) were the difference for the Bucs?

 

Overall, he keeps using that word "Pro Bowl caliber running backs"

I am not sure what it means to him

 

There are many teams of recent memory that have struggled to run the ball while being able to pass with ease.  Tampa Bay last year, the Falcons, even KC last year come to mind.

 

I would like an upgrade at RB, but I think the key to run improvement lies in the OL

 

[Rigotz]

10 hours ago, Bobby Hooks said:

I get it if we’re picking top ten, heck even top 25, but the 30th pick is basically a second rounder. I’d prefer going corner or edge but if Beane absolutely falls in love with one of the running backs I’m not going to lose any sleep over it. 

 

Sure, running backs have lost a little steam. But if you can get a truly good one it’s a serious game changer and would open up so many opportunities for Josh. 

 

No one is second guessing Clyde Edwards in Kansas City and I think we’re very similar to that Chiefs team in terms of its going to be very difficult for a rookie to crack the starting lineup. 

 

One of the things i like about this draft is that we’re not pigeon holed by “needing” any position in particular. It’s a refreshing change and I’m relishing the fact that we can actually afford to take the bpa. Do I think we’d like to fill some positions more than others? Sure, but we can actually trust our scouting and take a guy we feel great about as opposed to someone we feel lukewarm about. 

 

Ftr, I want Farley and Samuel jr more than either of the running backs. But again, I won’t lose any sleep if they go Harris or Etienne. And dare I say, I might be a little excited about it.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire sucked this year. I’m sure plenty of people are second guessing him.

[Rigotz]

8 hours ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

That is the "sunk cost fallacy"

 

We can't get those draft picks backs so it is irrelevant what we spent in the past

 

 

Or... we drafted these guys a year ago and two years ago, so maybe it’s simply not time to give up yet?

 

I’m familiar with “sunk cost fallacy” and you’ve misused it.

[Norcalbillsfan]

12 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB in the first round. Teams, now including the Bills, have moved to a RB by committee approach and the trend will not likely go away. As Bills fans we have been blessed with the presence of some very special RB’s over the years. I think this has made some of us nostalgic for the good old days. They’re gone.

 

This is not to say that the Bills did not suffer last year due to a lack of a running game threat. I believe the situation has more to do with scheme and o-line than RB. 

Agree, I think the lack of speed and pass catching at RB hurt but with addition of brieda that's been addressed, but I have no issues drafting a speedy pass catching back in the late rounds either.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Fifth year options don’t hold much value anymore.  Stars demand extensions, and non-stars aren’t bargains at fifth year option prices. In the rare instance of needing another year to evaluate, franchise tags aren’t much higher and they come without the injury risk.

 

 

While it's true that the value of the 5th year option has been diminished...........it's still important with key positions..........which is of course where you should be using your first round picks on anyway.

 

The most obvious example is Josh Allen.    That option definitely should be picked up.   Even if it were the same value as a franchise tag........it's not the franchise tag so you could in theory pay Josh his option and then pay almost the same money in 2023 on the first year you used the franchise tag on him instead of having that value escalate quickly the way it did for Dallas with Dak because they only had him under contract for 4 seasons because he wasn't a 1st round pick.

 

I get your point about THAT type of player being one you extend though............to which I would counter with a guy like Dion Dawkins.    Suppose he were a first round pick...........played as he has.......admirably at LT but wasn't a Pro Bowler or top of the league guy........having that fifth year option at LESS than the tag amount provides leverage to negotiate a more team friendly deal.   

 

 It's kind of the opposite of like what is happening with Tremaine Edmunds........he plays a lesser value position in the NFL.......collected a couple Pro Bowls despite not really being a top 8-10 MLB because all the stud MLB's are in the NFC........and now his option is worth more than he probably is to the team.  

 

 

[jlgarsh]

6 hours ago, Pokebball said:

Maybe the Broncos with Terrell Davis 

Marshawn?

[Nihilarian]

12 hours ago, WhoTom said:

I'm glad the Giants didn't know that a few years ago.

You n me both 😋

 

Still, the argument can be made for having a top RB.

 

Derrick Henry 2nd rd-Dalvin Cook 2nd rd- Jonathan Taylor 2nd rd-Aaron Jones 5th rd. Nick Chubb 2rd rd. Alvin Kamara 3rd rd. 

 

Its all about finding that diamond RB in the 2nd round...easier said than done.

 

 

[NewEra]

40 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Agree, I think the lack of speed and pass catching at RB hurt but with addition of brieda that's been addressed, but I have no issues drafting a speedy pass catching back in the late rounds either.

Gainwell if he’s still available in rd 3.  Sign me up.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

13 hours ago, Rigotz said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away

 

This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl."

Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article.

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read.

Umm without a deep dive into the issue -prior to reading the article i can think of at least 3 instances where a playoff team drafting a RB in round 1 went to the super bowl in his rookie season - Chiefs (with Edwards-Helaire), Pats (with Sony Michel) and the Steelers (with Rashard Mendenhall). SO "never" is pretty strong no?

 

now I have skimmed it and they discount Michel and Edwards-Helaire's role in getting their respective teams to the Super Bowl, which is pretty lame.

[John from Riverside]

If the bills consider him to be the best player available.....then so be it.

 

I personally think it will be a corner

[Putin]

I just can’t see us taking a RB in the first round , this is a great CB class and we need  an upgrade at CB2 

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, Putin said:

I just can’t see us taking a RB in the first round , this is a great CB class and we need  an upgrade at CB2 

Plus, I want my first rounder to see 90% or above of the snaps which is what we'd get with a true #2 CB.  It's kind of why I shy away from taking a chance on a DE in the first round who's only going to be in on 50 to 60% of the snaps or so in McD's defense.

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Still, the argument can be made for having a top RB.

 

Derrick Henry 2nd rd-Dalvin Cook 2nd rd- Jonathan Taylor 2nd rd-Aaron Jones 5th rd. Nick Chubb 2rd rd. Alvin Kamara 3rd rd. 

 

Its all about finding that diamond RB in the 2nd round...easier said than done.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Doc Brown

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

https://analyzethis/JPB/sportysport/rolltide

 

I don't know what I think about this.

 

Analyst J.P. Butterworth III 

 

'2020 was a strange season for all teams ,but most especially the Buffalo Bills. Few teams of recent memory struggled running the ball all the while being able to pass with ease...'

 

He goes on saying...

 

'the Bills are one piece of the puzzle from the Super Bowl and that one piece is RB. Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and were then rewarded for doing so. Will the Bills Mafia be breaking tables this Thursday or will they be rejoicing when pick 30 comes in for RB Najee Harris?'

 

 

 

"Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and then were rewarded for doing so," he says.

 

Is that how he sees the Clyde Edwards-Helaire situation? Fournette's never been a Pro Bowler. Does anyone think he's pro bowl caliber at this point? Ronald Jones was a second rounder. He had a good year but his first two years were far from great. I don't particularly see great RBs on SB champions till you go back at least to Seattle's championship.

 

EDIT: Ah, I see I'm far from the first to notice this was nonsense.

 

Since the link in the OP doesn't even work, this is likely a sophomoric attempt at humor of some sort.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[colin]

meh, based on what i've read right here i kinda fade a top pick on RB, but if all the CBs, DTs, OGs, and DEs who the FO like are gonezo, and they think one oft these guys is a total day 1 beast, then it's not a terrible idea.

 

the one consistent think IMO is our FO values premium positions (pass rush, cb, qb, OT) and freak athletes over all else, so it would be out of character for us to grab an RB that soon, but id expect them to have to be just an insane physical specimen 

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Least important position. Big difference. Let's be real here. Most teams do a running back by committee and wouldn't be doing this if it was such an important position.

 

Unless you are a top 5ish back in the NFL(Henry,Kamara etc) your value is about the same as your backup. No other postion is this the case.

 

I'll ask again, why do OC's run such a huge chunk of the Offense through the least important position on the roster?  Is a rushing 1st down less important than a passing 1st down?  What about TDs? Buffalo got 31% of it's 1st downs rushing last year.  KC got 29%. The SB champs got 25% of theirs rushing.   But the position RB is of minimal importance on the roster?  Why do they use it so much?  Simple question.

 

The Browns use a committee of Chubb (1067 yards) and Hunt (841 yards)---but to them RB is the least important position on the roster?  Go back in time:  late 80's Raiders--the RB committee of Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen.  Both not important because they shared the job?  Together they were not important ( "least important") for that Offense?  You like "1960"?  How about the committee of Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung?  Least important Packers HOFers ever? How about Czonka/Mercury Morris/Jim Kiick?  RB was the most  minimally important position to those "perfect" SB Dolphins, because they needed 3 of them?