1ManRaid Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Brennan Huff said: Remember when we drafted CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? I still vividly remember putting my shoes on and going straight to the bar immediately after the pick was made. I'm not even much of a drinker and I needed immediate liquid consolation that badly. Didn't even watch the rest of the picks. 7 minutes ago, FFadpecr said: Yeah, Warren Sharp is wrong here. Every individual situation is different. The 2021 Bills are a Travis ETN away from becoming Super Bowl champions. I don't care about other past situations with different context. I care about this 1 situation. You add Travis ETN to the 2021 Bills - they are winning the Super Bowl. Period. Even GM Brandon Beane basically admitted today that if ETN is there at 30, he's the pick. If Travis ETN is on the board at 30, the Bills are selecting Travis ETN. And that equals Super Bowl win. Do you get paid every time you say ETN? Is this some grassroots slogan marketing thing to hype up his impending arrival?
MrSarcasm Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Good luck with that. Thank you kind sir or madam. 1 hour ago, Limeaid said: Absolutely less valuable than long snapper. Congrats you proved me wrong. Now allow me to restructure my previous thought. The RB nowadays is less valuable then... QB, WR, TE, C, LG, RG, RT, LT, K, P, DE, DT, FS, SS, LB and CB, but yeah you are right they are more valuable then the long snapper....
Mr. WEO Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said: Thank you kind sir or madam. Congrats you proved me wrong. Now allow me to restructure my previous thought. The RB nowadays is less valuable then... QB, WR, TE, C, LG, RG, RT, LT, K, P, DE, DT, FS, SS, LB and CB, but yeah you are right they are more valuable then the long snapper.... Last season, 18 teams' Offenses had at least 40% runs. Over the past 3 seasons, 10 teams have averaged at least 50% of their TDs being rushing TDs, the majority by RBs. 11 teams have had at least 45% of their Offense as run plays.
hondo in seattle Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 When a QB accounts for 4000 yards while a good RB contributes 1000, it’s easy to understand why RBs have been devalued. But if the next Jim Brown or Walter Payton is available in the first, you still take him. How much more effective would our passing game be if our RBs were a legit threat?
DCOrange Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 An article like this shouldn't really be needed in this day and age, but it's a good article nonetheless. For those thinking it's different because the finances are different at #30 than it is in the top 10, from that list, these are the RBs taken 24th or later (was going to cut it off at 25, but wanted to include Josh Jacobs since he's been good): Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 21 touches per game through his first 6 and a 5-1 record, 12 touches per game over his last 9 and an 11-2 record (including 3-1 when he didn't play); wasn't much of an upgrade over Bell and Darrel Williams for the most part. Josh Jacobs - Undoubtedly their best RB these past two years; he's played legitimately well both years so far. Raiders have gone 13-15 when he plays and 2-2 when he doesn't. Rashaad Penny - 981 yards from scrimmage over 3 years, he's never been more than a mediocre backup. Sony Michel - Burst on the scene as a rookie, struggled as a sophomore, replaced in his 3rd year. Doug Martin - Two outstanding seasons in which Tampa went 13-19 along with 4 terrible seasons as a Buc and one mediocre season with the Raiders. David Wilson - 546 yards from scrimmage in 3 years and out of the NFL. Mark Ingram - A long career as a pretty good committee RB demonstrating the replaceability of RBs. Jahvid Best - 1700 yards from scrimmage in 22 games before he was forced to retire from concussions. Donald Brown - A long career as a below average backup RB Beanie Wells - 2800 yards from scrimmage in 4 years as a below average starter/solid backup and then never played another down. Yes, the RB you get at 30 will be cheaper and therefore the opportunity cost is only bad instead of atrocious, but you're likely punting on what should be a valuable asset instead of trying to find an impactful player. 1
MrSarcasm Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Last season, 18 teams' Offenses had at least 40% runs. Over the past 3 seasons, 10 teams have averaged at least 50% of their TDs being rushing TDs, the majority by RBs. 11 teams have had at least 45% of their Offense as run plays. And.... Most teams utilize multiple RBs whether by design or because of injuries. Based on past SB winners it appears as if RB can be more of a plug position. I mean the Pats are a good example of this. This isn't 1960 anymore.
DrDawkinstein Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Sony Michel - Burst on the scene as a rookie, struggled as a sophomore, replaced in his 3rd year. Good list/breakdown. But I think you are underselling Michel here. His sophomore season, he still put up 912 yds and 7 TDs. Which would be by far the best season Singletary (or Moss) ever had. And not sure I'd say he was replaced last year considering he was on IR twice with a quad injury.
HappyDays Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 3 hours ago, dave mcbride said: The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option. Over the last 2 years only 38% of players drafted after pick 20 had their 5th year option picked up. I wouldn't weigh the 5th year option at all in my decision. We brought back the same offensive line, which I am fine with. But if we also bring back the same RB room there is no chance of our run game improving, and somehow it has to improve. We don't need a top tier run game but it has to be better than bottom of the league. If they feel Breida is enough I'm okay with that, but I'm hoping we don't roll into 2021 with Singletary and Moss active on gameday with Breida inactive. Either add a RB with speed somewhere in the draft or see what Breida can do.
DCOrange Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Good list/breakdown. But I think you are underselling Michel here. His sophomore season, he still put up 912 yds and 7 TDs. Which would be by far the best season Singletary (or Moss) ever had. And not sure I'd say he was replaced last year considering he was on IR twice with a quad injury. Is it better if I say he was merely a below average starter? He was fed a ton of carries but he was 17th out of 20 in terms of DVOA among RBs that had at least 200 carries and 29th out of 45 if you include everyone with at least 100 carries. And his lack of abilities catching the ball or blocking made the Patriots offense uncharacteristically predictable, which is part of why it was their first time having a below average offense in terms of scoring efficiency since 2003. And he was replaced in his 3rd year. He technically started the first 3 games before he got hurt but that was because Damien Harris was hurt and even then, he was outsnapped by Rex Burkhead during those games. When he returned, he was outsnapped by both Damien Harris and James White until both Harris and Burkhead were hurt again and Harris is expected to be the starter next season. 2
MrSarcasm Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 https://analyzethis/JPB/sportysport/rolltide I don't know what I think about this. Analyst J.P. Butterworth III '2020 was a strange season for all teams ,but most especially the Buffalo Bills. Few teams of recent memory struggled running the ball all the while being able to pass with ease...' He goes on saying... 'the Bills are one piece of the puzzle from the Super Bowl and that one piece is RB. Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and were then rewarded for doing so. Will the Bills Mafia be breaking tables this Thursday or will they be rejoicing when pick 30 comes in for RB Najee Harris?' 1
dave mcbride Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Is it better if I say he was merely a below average starter? He was fed a ton of carries but he was 17th out of 20 in terms of DVOA among RBs that had at least 200 carries and 29th out of 45 if you include everyone with at least 100 carries. And his lack of abilities catching the ball or blocking made the Patriots offense uncharacteristically predictable, which is part of why it was their first time having a below average offense in terms of scoring efficiency since 2003. And he was replaced in his 3rd year. He technically started the first 3 games before he got hurt but that was because Damien Harris was hurt and even then, he was outsnapped by Rex Burkhead during those games. When he returned, he was outsnapped by both Damien Harris and James White until both Harris and Burkhead were hurt again and Harris is expected to be the starter next season. Good post, but ... he had a whale of postseason on 2018. That always counts in my book.
DCOrange Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dave mcbride said: Good post, but ... he had a whale of postseason on 2018. That always counts in my book. That was his rookie season, in which I said he was good.
MrSarcasm Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Rigotz said: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl." Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article. This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently. If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read. I disagree. A stud RB is how teams get to and with the Super Bowl. To prove my genius-here is a list of the excellent RBs from the past 10 championship teams. Ahmad Bradshaw Ray Rice Marshawn Lynch Shane Vereen C.J. Anderson Dion Lewis LeGarette Blount Sony Michel Damien Williams Leonard Fournette 5 hours ago, Rigotz said: https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl." Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article. This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently. If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read. I disagree. A stud RB is how teams get to and with the Super Bowl. To prove my genius-here is a list of the excellent RBs from the past 10 championship teams. Ahmad Bradshaw Ray Rice Marshawn Lynch Shane Vereen C.J. Anderson Dion Lewis LeGarette Blount Sony Michel Damien Williams Leonard Fournette
1ManRaid Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 Dude doesn't even know us well enough to know us breaking tables IS rejoicing. It's kinda what we're known for. Oh and the issues running was mainly on the O-line and playcalling but who cares about that. 7
dave mcbride Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, DCOrange said: That was his rookie season, in which I said he was good. My point is that in any measure of a player, if we're not including postseason performance, we're doing it wrong. He wasn't just good in the 2018 postseason; he was a legit difference maker who was a key player in all three wins. 71 carries for 336 yards and 6 TDs in three games vs. top competition is pretty great. I forgive a lot of year 3 decline if a player can offer me that in the games that matter most. 3 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said: To prove my genius-here is a list of the excellent RBs from the past 10 championship teams. Ahmad Bradshaw (7TH ROUND PICK) Ray Rice (LATE 2ND ROUND PICK) Marshawn Lynch (SEAHAWKS USED A 4TH ROUND PICK TO GET HIM) Shane Vereen (LATE SECOND ROUND PICK) C.J. Anderson (UNDRAFTED) Dion Lewis (5TH ROUND PICK) LeGarette Blount (UNDRAFTED) Sony Michel (LATE FIRST) Damien Williams (UNDRAFTED) Leonard Fournette (FREE AGENT CAST OFF CUT BY HIS INITIAL TEAM) See above. You should probably add in James White (4th round pick), who had the best SB of all these guys. 1
Doc Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 Who was the last team to win a SB with a Pro Bowl RB? 2
Malazan Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 I see the OP is salty that people don't recognize his genius in the thread about taking a RB in the 1st being a bad idea so apparently had to make his own thread
MrSarcasm Posted April 20, 2021 Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, Doc said: Who was the last team to win a SB with a Pro Bowl RB? Leonard Fournettw made the Pro Bowl 3 years ago. Past 8 Super Bowl RBs Shane Vereen C.J. Anderson Dion Lewis LeGarette Blount Sony Michel Damien Williams Leonard Fournette 1 1
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