Excellent argument AGAINST drafting a 1st Round RB

[maddenboy]

I suspect that all of the above posters who STILL would be okay with a RB in round 1 did NOT read the article.  (not saying that one article changes the world, but it seems you'd need to address the arguments before stridently saying "yep, but I still want a RB in round 1.")

 

I read the article.  It has ruined me of any urge to take a RB in round 1, and maybe not in round 2, of any draft.

 

Thanks to OP for finding some well-reasoned arguments. 

A snippet:

 

"

So what do you do if you have a 1st round pick and need an improved run game?

 

If you’re a team like the Bills, and we take you at your word, you improve your offensive line which will offer dividends to both the passing and running game.

 

The Bills have said they need to improve their run game, but plan to focus on the run blocking not necessarily the running back himself.

 

This is smart.

 

Why?

 

Well if the above analysis on the statistical inability to deliver by first round RBs isn’t enough… and if the above analysis on team success getting worse in the years after drafting a first round RB isn’t enough, lean into some of the things we’ve learned from studying NFL statistics over the last several years. . . ."

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/offseason-research/teams-are-never-first-round-rb-away

 

This is a fantastic write-up on why Playoff teams are "never a first round RB away from Super Bowl."

Obviously, very relevant to the Bills and they are specifically mentioned in this article.

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

If you're one of the folks clamoring for Najee or Etienne, give this a read.

 

 

This makes sense, and I've been a "No RBs in the 1st Round" guy for a while myself.

 

HOWEVER...

 

I think this year is a bit different.

1. We are no longer drafting in the Top 12. We're drafting at #30 overall, practically a 2nd round pick.

2. The draft is weak in the trenches, and where we need help. Taking a DE will likely be a reach, and get us a player on par with Epenesa at best, or more likely Erik Flowers.

3. We are IN THE HUNT for a Super Bowl RIGHT NOW. And that window may only have a few years left. I dont care what happens to this RB after his rookie deal.

 

So with all that said, I am fine if Beane decides to snag someone he feels is a playmaker and can make a difference on this team right away. I dont think we get that with any of these mediocre DEs.

[QCity]

Been saying this for over a decade and yes, a great argument for not drafting a RB high is history.

 

That article doesn't touch enough on the finances either. Any RB drafted in the 1st round now gets the standard boilerplate contract, which basically forces them to hold out after year 3 for a long term deal on their 2nd contract, which rarely pan out even for the best RB's in the league.

 

I think the desire to draft a RB high comes from fantasy football, where that seems to be the key to success. But it doesn't work in real life.

 

You want to improve your running game? Draft some road grading lineman. Your QB will thank you too.

Edited April 20, 2021 by QCity

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB in the first round. Teams, now including the Bills, have moved to a RB by committee approach and the trend will not likely go away. As Bills fans we have been blessed with the presence of some very special RB’s over the years. I think this has made some of us nostalgic for the good old days. They’re gone.

 

This is not to say that the Bills did not suffer last year due to a lack of a running game threat. I believe the situation has more to do with scheme and o-line than RB. 

 

^^This^^  No matter what you think - remember the bolded this upcoming weekend.  That article hit it on the head invest in the O-Line.....best use of a 1st round pick for the improvement of the running game.  The gold old days of Thurman are just that - good old days.  Besides he was just as good out the backfield catching passes and was a WICKED blocker for Kelly.

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

Been saying this for over a decade and yes, a great argument for not drafting a RB high is history.

 

That article doesn't even touch on the finances either. Any RB drafted in the 1st round now gets the standard boilerplate contract, which basically forces them to hold out after year 3 for a long term deal on their 2nd contract, which rarely pan out even for the best RB's in the league.

 

I think the desire to draft a RB high comes from fantasy football, where that seems to be the key to success. But it doesn't work in real life.

 

You want to improve your running game? Draft some road grading lineman. Your QB will thank you too.

 

Not if they cant pass block, and we are passing 80% of the time.

 

We are a passing team with a passing offense, and the personnel to pass.

 

If we want to improve this run game, we have to improve the RB. We can tweak the scheme a bit to help them, but it will come down to getting a RB who can make his own success.

3 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

^^This^^  No matter what you think - remember the bolded this upcoming weekend.  That article hit it on the head invest in the O-Line.....best use of a 1st round pick for the improvement of the running game.  The gold old days of Thurman are just that - good old days.  Besides he was just as good out the backfield catching passes and was a WICKED blocker for Kelly.

 

I dont disagree in theory. But when talking about this specific team...

 

Which OL are we going to draft at #30 that will unseat any of our current OL and be better than them this year? Otherwise it is a wasted pick as well.

 

I can say with some decent confidence that Harris is an immediate improvement over Singeltary and Moss. Isnt that last bolded statement an endorsement to draft Harris?

Edited April 20, 2021 by DrDawkinstein

[Kwai San]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont disagree in theory. But when talking about this specific team...

 

Which OL are we going to draft at #30 that will unseat any of our current OL and be better than them this year? Otherwise it is a wasted pick as well.

 

I can say with some decent confidence that Harris is an immediate improvement over Singeltary and Moss.

 

At this point in time in the universe your statement has definite merit BUT, you sensed that but coming, I would argue IF and it is a HUGE IF there is a BPA available in the form of an O-Line guy....I say git er done Beane!  That O-Line guy will be here far and away longer and provide better value than Harris will.  If I am wrong - won't be the first nor the last time.  I still value the O-Line and I am still HUGE pissed about Teller getting away.....dunno why but I just knew he was gonna be a good one.  DANG!

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Brennan Huff said:

Remember when we drafted CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? 

Youz guys keep bringing up stuff like this and my nervous twitch is gonna come back....

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Brennan Huff said:

Remember when we drafted CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? 

 

Except NONE of the RBs currently on our roster are as good as any of those 3.

 

I'm fine with moving on from Singeltary.

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

This day and age I would argue that the RB postion is the least valuable postion in the NFL.

 

Absolutely less valuable than long snapper.

[Don Otreply]

Those that still insist on a 1st round RB to fix our run game problem, appear to have purposefully ignored the history of this teams O line personnel turnover and injury’s, plus scheming  and the timing of those things over the last three seasons.  Those things have directly impacted what was a run game that was what this style of offense wants.   Someone up thread stated that this line of thinking is related to fantasy GM group think, and it appears to be the case..., separating fantasy from actual football appears to be a problem for some fans...,

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Don Otreply said:

Those that still insist on a 1st round RB to fix our run game problem, appear to have purposefully ignored the history of this teams O line personnel turnover and injury’s, plus scheming  and the timing of those things over the last three seasons.  Those things have directly impacted what was a run game that was what this style of offense wants.   Someone up thread stated that this line of thinking is related to fantasy GM group think, and it appears to be the case..., separating fantasy from actual football appears to be a problem for some fans...,

 

 

What about ALL of those things?

 

All OL starters back healthy

Scheme tweaks

Improvement in RB talent

 

What's wrong with that?

 

Fantasy thinking is taking a RB #2 overall like the Giants. Or even top-10. We're at #30.

[Don Otreply]

18 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

What about ALL of those things?

 

All OL starters back healthy

Scheme tweaks

Improvement in RB talent

 

What's wrong with that?

 

Fantasy thinking is taking a RB #2 overall like the Giants. Or even top-10. We're at #30.

We went from a sh-t O line in JAs first season, to successful run blocking schemes the 2nd season that our RBs did very well with,  and then on to the start of the 3rd season,  to having Spain getting his head stuck in his azs and quitting on the team, then we had and continued series of starter O line injuries that went on for pretty much the whole season, and the blocking schemes changed during that same period of time, we pretty much never had all our starters playing together at all last season, on top of losing Spain, who was very good the year before, that’s what I’m getting at when I said some folk are ignoring what the root cause of our run game woes actually are..., without good run blocking RBs don’t do well, ya gotta fix what the problem is before you get the results you’re after..., some folk just don’t get this ..., 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Don Otreply

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

What about ALL of those things?

 

All OL starters back healthy

Scheme tweaks

Improvement in RB talent

 

What's wrong with that?

 

Fantasy thinking is taking a RB #2 overall like the Giants. Or even top-10. We're at #30.

I think Moss is pretty good and I expect he'll have a surprisingly productive season. He came on late in the season and played wel , averaging 4.85 ypc over the final 6 games (257 yards on 53 carries). A first-round RB isn't likely to average 4.8 ypc. Plus Breida has averaged 4.9 ypc on 440 carries over his career. I think the Bills RB stable is actually pretty solid. 

Edited April 20, 2021 by dave mcbride

[ticketssince61]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

This also doesn't consider the draft capital we've already spent on Running Backs recently.

 

 

That is the "sunk cost fallacy"

 

We can't get those draft picks backs so it is irrelevant what we spent in the past

 

 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

That is the "sunk cost fallacy"

 

We can't get those draft picks backs so it is irrelevant what we spent in the past

 

 

True, but Moss looks like a pretty good player who measurably improved over the course of the season. Closing the final 6 games at 4.85 ypc is first-round production. And Singletary is hardly terrible. My questions about him have nothing to do with the running game, but rather the passing game. 

Edited April 20, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Malazan]

Sharp's Next article: Why scoring more points than the other team is good

[Bobby Hooks]

1 hour ago, maddenboy said:

I suspect that all of the above posters who STILL would be okay with a RB in round 1 did NOT read the article.  (not saying that one article changes the world, but it seems you'd need to address the arguments before stridently saying "yep, but I still want a RB in round 1.")

 

I read the article.  It has ruined me of any urge to take a RB in round 1, and maybe not in round 2, of any draft.

 

Thanks to OP for finding some well-reasoned arguments. 

A snippet:

 

"

So what do you do if you have a 1st round pick and need an improved run game?

 

If you’re a team like the Bills, and we take you at your word, you improve your offensive line which will offer dividends to both the passing and running game.

 

The Bills have said they need to improve their run game, but plan to focus on the run blocking not necessarily the running back himself.

 

This is smart.

 

Why?

 

Well if the above analysis on the statistical inability to deliver by first round RBs isn’t enough… and if the above analysis on team success getting worse in the years after drafting a first round RB isn’t enough, lean into some of the things we’ve learned from studying NFL statistics over the last several years. . . ."

I didn’t read the article but then again I didn’t have to. I know the arguments from both sides. I can cherry pick some articles too, I don’t magically believe people will change their opinions based on one point of view. 

 

Football is the ultimate team game, but there are outliers. There are players that can take a good team and make them great. I’m not saying these running backs are those players, but I trust Beane to know that. And if he wants one of those guys I’m on board. 

 

Though im on board with pretty much any pick outside of kickers and qb so I dont know how much weight that carries. 

 

What I do know is that every year there are first round picks that bust and there’s no getting around that. But I like that we’re in a position to take a guy we feel excellent about regardless of position instead of reaching for a guy with question marks hoping to fill a position of immediate need. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Bobby Hooks

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

This day and age I would argue that the RB postion is the least valuable postion in the NFL.

 

Good luck with that.

 

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

It no longer makes any sense to draft a RB in the first round. Teams, now including the Bills, have moved to a RB by committee approach and the trend will not likely go away. As Bills fans we have been blessed with the presence of some very special RB’s over the years. I think this has made some of us nostalgic for the good old days. They’re gone.

 

This is not to say that the Bills did not suffer last year due to a lack of a running game threat. I believe the situation has more to do with scheme and o-line than RB. 

 

The RB Committee produces little from their meetings.  Probably not the scheme that did them in...

[PolishDave]

I thought Christian Wade was already expected to upgrade the RB position this year?     He's already on the team.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I might be in the minority but I like our RBs. 

I think they are fine. I was excited for a big 2nd year from Singletary and it was a let down for sure. But I think he has the tools to be good. But neither of them will ever be great running backs.

 

I think it is up to the line to block better and Daboll to improve the run scheme.