Pro Football Network - Bills and Bucs rumored for DTs at end of round 1

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Dont worry, we won’t be drafting a 3T @30.  Nothing to see here

Im secretly praying Alijah Vera-Tucker falls to us at 30 personally.  But I honestly don’t think he makes it past the Jets at 23 as they look to build up the line to protect Wilson snd avoid the mistakes they made not protecting Darnold.
 

I think he is going to be a beast at the next level and his versatility will be something McBeane will love.  
 

If he is there at 30, I bet they run the pick in.  
 

Since I don’t expect him to be there, I’m hoping one of the big 4 at CB slide there, although I unfortunately also think they all more than likely come off the board ahead of our pick too.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah there is a perception that the 1T in the Bills defense is not supposed to make any tackles or plays...........but it isn't the NT position...........the 1T is positioned between the guard and the center which is still an opportunity to shoot gaps and make plays for the right player.     In Lotulelei's first two seasons he had 16 TFL's.........his play simply dropped off which is why he's had 16 in his last 5 seasons combined.   It doesn't have to be a net zero position statistically.    I don't see them using that pick on Barmore though.    They just need a big slug with a decent motor to keep the relative status quo of the past 3 seasons of Bills defense.   That's not worth a high pick or a lot of money.   

 

No, nor do I, but I was just making the point that I think Barmore is a guy who is a bit more flexible. His most natural fit probably is as a 3T but he can play as a 1T in the NFL too. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

I think we'd have to take him in the 3rd tbh. He can anchor though and does it well from what I've seen. I can't recall ever seeing him get blown up either. He's got really nimble feet for a guy who's 6'4" and 325lbs as well. Fingers crossed we turn a card in with his name on it next week. 

Yeah I think he’s the most athletic by a wide margin.  Impressive being for sure

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I am not enamored with the players projected to be on the board at 30 personally.  But then again, the board never falls close to as projected, so there still could be a great fit for us at 30.  
 

But assuming there isn’t an obvious pick there, I would say try and trade down with Phi to pick up Ertz.

 

Bills get:  Zack Ertz and the 37th pick in the draft.

 

Eagles get:  30th pick in the draft.

 

We move back 7 spots and land Ertz and rework his deal.  That’s more appealing to me than taking another 3T DT at 30.

 

Personally I also doubt that happens, and I think we will take BPA per usual and I expect that to likely be a CB or someone on the OL.  

 

 

Why does Ertz re-work his deal?   

 

I don't see where he has any motivation to do so.    It's not like he's chasing a ring.   I am sure he wants to hit UFA next offseason and that limits the re-structuring options.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is a bit too much for Zach Ertz. Values him at a 3rd round pick. I don't think a 1 year rental of a guy who was hurt last year and will turn 31 during the 2021 season is worth that and I am not particularly in favour of extending him. If they were throwing us a day 3 pick back the other way maybe to reduce the value applied to Ertz by the chart to a 4th.... so their 6th maybe.... that values him at an early 4th rounder... I'd be more up for it. 

Well as I said in my post, he would come with a reworked deal, meaning not a one year rental. 
 

I can see is taking back a day 3 pick, and I certainly would expect Beane to try and get that as well.  
 

However, I’d be comfortable still without it.  We are in a SB push this year, I think the reward here outweighs the risk of a simple 7 spot trade back.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well as I said in my post, he would come with a reworked deal, meaning not a one year rental. 
 

I can see is taking back a day 3 pick, and I certainly would expect Beane to try and get that as well.  
 

However, I’d be comfortable still without it.  We are in a SB push this year, I think the reward here outweighs the risk of a simple 7 spot trade back.  

 

Yea I don't want to extend him. I think he is close to being done. The one year rental thing I can get behind, but it needs to be at a cheaper price. And I think the Eagles will eventually be open to a lower offer, but might need to happen after the draft. 

[Jay_Fixit]

If it’s BPA, I don’t care what position.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Why does Ertz re-work his deal?   

 

I don't see where he has any motivation to do so.    It's not like he's chasing a ring.   I am sure he wants to hit UFA next offseason and that limits the re-structuring options.

I understand where you are coming from, but the market has proven really low for Ertz.  Right now, a reworked multi year deal with a great organization contending for division titles and Super Bowls with a MVP candidate at QB is going to look like a real nice place to be for him.

 

So I think he is going to be very interested to do that.  

[NewEra]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Im secretly praying Alijah Vera-Tucker falls to us at 30 personally.  But I honestly don’t think he makes it past the Jets at 23 as they look to build up the line to protect Wilson snd avoid the mistakes they made not protecting Darnold.
 

I think he is going to be a beast at the next level and his versatility will be something McBeane will love.  
 

If he is there at 30, I bet they run the pick in.  
 

Since I don’t expect him to be there, I’m hoping one of the big 4 at CB slide there, although I unfortunately also think they all more than likely come off the board ahead of our pick too.  

It’s looking like there’s a less than slim chance at Vera-Tucker or a top 4 CB fall to us.   Top 4 CB would be best case scenario imo, but I think the Jets will draft Newsome (or the hometown bears).  Whichever one doesn’t draft Newsome will probably draft Vera Tucker if he’s still there.  
 

looking at the OL/CB combos the Jets are looking at, would you rather have Vera Tucker and stokes/Campbell or Farley/Newsome and Jenkins/leatherwood/Humphrey/or any of the other 5 OL that have been mocked right around the 2nd pick of the 2nd rd. Seems to me like the best bang for the buck for the Jets would be top 4 cB then OL with the 2nd pick in rd 2

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't want to extend him. I think he is close to being done. The one year rental thing I can get behind, but it needs to be at a cheaper price. And I think the Eagles will eventually be open to a lower offer, but might need to happen after the draft. 

I think a team friendly 2 year deal is worth it personally.  

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I want to drink beer in your world.👍 I am thinking the exact same strategy.

30 BPA is unlikely to be DE or CB, maybe S?
 

30 BPA could be OT, IOL, RB, but only OT is a premium position.

 

With recognition that Bills will have their own grades that may differ considerably from other team’s grades and from what the pundits and we think, the question will be: how far down the board do you go for a player at a premium position vs. a “better” prospect at a less valued position?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think a team friendly 2 year deal is worth it personally.  

 

Then you get to Badol's point though - why would he take that? He is getting $8m this year on his current deal. To get him to forgo a shot at FA in 2022 and the chance to earn one last chunk of guaranteed money on a signing bonus you are probably going to have chuck around that much again on top. At that point he is too pricey for my tastes. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

It’s looking like there’s a less than slim chance at Vera-Tucker or a top 4 CB fall to us.   Top 4 CB would be best case scenario imo, but I think the Jets will draft Newsome (or the hometown bears).  Whichever one doesn’t draft Newsome will probably draft Vera Tucker if he’s still there.  
 

looking at the OL/CB combos the Jets are looking at, would you rather have Vera Tucker and stokes/Campbell or Farley/Newsome and Jenkins/leatherwood/Humphrey/or any of the other 5 OL that have been mocked right around the 2nd pick of the 2nd rd. Seems to me like the best bang for the buck for the Jets would be top 4 cB then OL with the 2nd pick in rd 2

I am personally quite high on Vera-Tucker and his versatility.  Nothing is more important in developing a you g QB than protecting him.  And you can’t fill every hole in one draft, so as a GM you should prioritize the development of that QB.  They are going to likely have a top 15 pick again next year, you can always draft a CB then if you didn’t find one this draft.  
 

So I think the Jets must invest in making sure they give Wilson the best chance to succeed.  And for me, I think Tucker is too good to pass up at 23, if he’s still on the board even.  Especially with his versatility.

 

That being said, I definitely fully agree that CB is probably the only other position they look at with the 23rd pick, or at least should be the only other position.  
 

So won’t surprise me to see them go your route and go DB there and look at OL after.  But, AVT is who I would target based on how the board is expected to fall right now if I was the Jets.  

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is a bit too much for Zach Ertz. Values him at a 3rd round pick. I don't think a 1 year rental of a guy who was hurt last year and will turn 31 during the 2021 season is worth that and I am not particularly in favour of extending him. If they were throwing us a day 3 pick back the other way maybe to reduce the value applied to Ertz by the chart to a 4th.... so their 6th maybe.... that values him at an early 4th rounder... I'd be more up for it. 

Agreed - if he was the younger version of himself- great, but he isn’t.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Then you get to Badol's point though - why would he take that? He is getting $8m this year on his current deal. To get him to forgo a shot at FA in 2022 and the chance to earn one last chunk of guaranteed money on a signing bonus you are probably going to have chuck around that much again on top. At that point he is too pricey for my tastes. 

His market is low now, it’s not going to be any higher next year at 32 after playing out his deal as the #2 TE on a bad team with a developing QB.  
 

He wants to win, this is a good deal for him.  And I do have some inside info that is exactly what his top priority is, playing for a contender.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

His market is low now, it’s not going to be any higher next year at 32 after playing out his deal as the #2 TE on a bad team with a developing QB.  
 

He wants to win, this is a good deal for him.  And I do have some inside info that is exactly what his top priority is, playing for a contender.  

 

If he wants a 2 year $10m deal then sure. I don't think he will play for that much. Even for a contender. 

[todd]

A strong 1 tech that commands double teams is key to a good pass rush. We don’t really have that other than Star. We have plenty of 3 tech, but we aren’t good enough at 1. We need to get one, somehow.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I understand where you are coming from, but the market has proven really low for Ertz.  Right now, a reworked multi year deal with a great organization contending for division titles and Super Bowls with a MVP candidate at QB is going to look like a real nice place to be for him.

 

So I think he is going to be very interested to do that.  

 

 

Gronk just got a 1 year $10M deal in a depressed market as a UFA.

 

Ertz is under contract for just $8.5M.

 

Once you trade for him any negotiating leverage or incentive to take a pay cut is gone.

 

I could see him on the Bills after he goes thru the process of being released and testing the market........... but he has no real trade value, IMO...........cap figure is too big..........he sees 2020 as an aberration rather than a steep decline.........a similar player has just been paid MORE in UFA etc..     It's not like he's chasing a ring.

 

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

I can't say I have a strong opinion one way or the other, but I want to keep in mind that it's Beane who has built this team and McD who has coached this team to a AFC Championship game. That means, they know what they're doing. The team has made sustainably progressive succession toward winning and remaining a true contender in the AFC through roster construction and great coaching. 

 

In the drought and torture years, it was easy to pick apart the Bills' strategy and see all of the folly in their ways. But in the current Bills climate and culture, this team has shown a real ability to Draft, develop and recruit FAs to the team that contribute to the overall success. In this way, I trust Beane no matter the selection. Does that mean he doesn't make mistakes? Of course not, every person and GM does make mistakes. But, to presume ANY of us have more knowledge or capability to Draft impactful players at the right spot than Beane and his personnel, is absolutely insane! Beane and his team will put a great Draft together in one respect or another - just think of how much flak he got for the Diggs trade and that seemed to work out pretty well. Beane and his FO are some of the best in the league. Let's relax, enjoy the ride and trust that in the end, the Bills will be improved once the Draft is over. 

 

The Beane-McDermott partnership is more nuanced than a lot of fans realize or can be enlightened to see.  The framework of this team is McD's.  He has a strategy to implement and it is Beane (and staff) who put together the personnel options that support that plan.  There's plenty of discussion leading up to their picks, but ultimately McD is going to get what he wants. 

 

After all, HC's and their in-game decisions are in the spotlight much more than GMs.  HC's are typically the one fired when things go south.  GM's know this and it's why HC's in many organizations get latitude to make personnel decisions.  

 

If they go defense in Round 1, it'll be 4 of 6 firsts used on that side of the ball.  And that's without taking a pass-rusher.  There's less value putting more resources into the defense when Josh is the way you win games.      

 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, todd said:

A strong 1 tech that commands double teams is key to a good pass rush. We don’t really have that other than Star. We have plenty of 3 tech, but we aren’t good enough at 1. We need to get one, somehow.

 

 

The only time the Bills had that kind of 1T player under McD was the brief period that Dareus was here.  Star isn't an automatic double team draw.........he got singled plenty, unfortunately.    The 1T position itself lends itself to double teaming schematically.......which is why whoever played it last year (Phillips, Butler, Zimmer, Oliver, Jefferson) all drew consistent double teams.   The 3T is positioned on the guard's outside shoulder........so with the OT occupied it's challenging to double team that player.    It would be nice to have a 1T like Damon Harrison was a couple years ago who could FORCE double teams with his physical presence and still put up a staggering 70+ tackles..........but instead they have Star who just does draws them because he's positioned there and then labors to average a tackle per game.