Who are the 49er's going to take at 3

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

No need to twist words.  That team needs playmakers.  Kittle and Pitts would be unstoppable.  

 

Why do you think it's wiser to spend 3 1st rounders and a 3rd for kid who played one season of small school college ball (2 years ago!) instead of an NFL ready stud ball catcher/playmaker?  Just curious.

 

 

 

Just go back and read everything you wrote last year.  It is exactly the opposite of what you are saying now.  You repeatedly said that Kittles sn’t worth the contract to the niners because they have so many playmakers and are a run first team. He’s not worth the money because his production won’t equal him he price paid.  Yet Pitts is worth 3 1st rd pick + a 3rd?  Cmon man.  
 

Twisting words is the only way to defend your take.  This has nothing to do with taking a qb with one year of experience (they can also take mac jones or fields) and everything to do with the price they paid to move up for the pick.  You said Kittle wasn’t worth a big contract to this team because they got to the SB with a good run game and had added playmakers, making Kittle even less valuable.......but somehow drafting Pitts is worth 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd.  What is more valuable?  One 15M contract or 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd?  
 

I have more to say on the drafting of the QB, but if I’ll wait to post it so you don’t highlight that one part of my post and ignore the rest

[frostbitmic]

I still think the 49ers trade for Watson and at #3 the Texans draft Fields.

[Pokebball]

16 hours ago, wagne591 said:

People are saying the draft starts at pick 3 with the 49er's, but who will they pick? When Shanahan took over in 2017, the roster was in good shape except for a QB in which he traded for his guy in Jimmy Garoppolo and 2 years later they were in the Superbowl (2019 Season).  So why would the 49er's give up on Garoppolo so fast or are they. Maybe they are making smoke screens and have someone else in mind to get them over the hump once again. And at 12 they wouldn't be in line to get their guy. By essentially trading up to the #3 spot that is like the pick to pick anyone in the draft other then T. Lawrence, or the kid our of BYU (you go Jets waste another pick). They have set themselves up to get Jimmy G. a major weapon on the outside in any of the three WR's they like, or pick K. Pitts TE out of Florida which would be a major weapon in their offense and it would give the 49ers two major TE threats to push the ball down the field in Pitts and Kittle (that would be a scary duo). So why is everyone saying the 49er's are going to pick a QB when they already have a proven one at the helm if he can stay healthy. This reminds me of the movie the Draft Day where the Browns had their guy and he was worried about getting traded or let go....(Pitts No Matter What). If that happened that would make the whole first round much more entertaining and stress free because I don't want Pitts going to an AFC East team. Thoughts.....

I'm down for Fields

[DrDawkinstein]

55 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I really hope they take Wilson as he seems like he could be the most flash in the pan of the bunch. But he could also be really good. He will have a better surrounding cast than Darnold, that is for sure. 

He’s just so punchable 😄

 

 

 

46 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

 

I feel like Zach Wilson was every bit of this "Young Teen in 2016" starter pack...

 

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Just go back and read everything you wrote last year.  It is exactly the opposite of what you are saying now.  You repeatedly said that Kittles sn’t worth the contract to the niners because they have so many playmakers and are a run first team. He’s not worth the money because his production won’t equal him he price paid.  Yet Pitts is worth 3 1st rd pick + a 3rd?  Cmon man.  
 

Twisting words is the only way to defend your take.  This has nothing to do with taking a qb with one year of experience (they can also take mac jones or fields) and everything to do with the price they paid to move up for the pick.  You said Kittle wasn’t worth a big contract to this team because they got to the SB with a good run game and had added playmakers, making Kittle even less valuable.......but somehow drafting Pitts is worth 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd.  What is more valuable?  One 15M contract or 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd?  
 

I have more to say on the drafting of the QB, but if I’ll wait to post it so you don’t highlight that one part of my post and ignore the rest

 

I didn't think he would get 15 million, that TE wasn't worth top WR money.  They can add Pitts for pennies (3 rookie contracts cost 3 pennies over 4 years each, not $75 million over 5 years)--and the bust rate for marginal QB prospects is high, so the economics clearly say he's worth it of he is as good as Kittles.  That's easy.

 

So go ahead, why is it foolish for them to trade up for Pitts instead of the one hit wonder from NDS or another future Bama bust at QB?  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I didn't think he would get 15 million, that TE wasn't worth top WR money.  They can add Pitts for pennies (3 rookie contracts cost 3 pennies over 4 years each, not $75 million over 5 years)--and the bust rate for marginal QB prospects is high, so the economics clearly say he's worth it of he is as good as Kittles.  That's easy.

 

So go ahead, why is it foolish for them to trade up for Pitts instead of the one hit wonder from NDS or another future Bama bust at QB?  

So you’re saying that one 15M contract is worth more to a team than 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd. Got it.

 

so you’re saying that the niners should rest their future on a QB has been injured and knocked out for the year in 2 of his last 3 seasons rather than draft a Qb that they have evaluated and deemed worthy of being their franchise qb, over their injury prone and unreliable AB.  Got it.  
 

Personally, I think Fields is the best fit.  I eliminated fields from my original post purely based on Mike Lombardi saying that the niners won’t be taking fields.  My next choice would be Lance, because has everything that you look for in a QB minus years of experience vs major colleges.  I’m not a fan of trading up for Mac, but if he’s as cerebral as they say, he might be worth the pick.  Shanahan has shown that he can win without a great passing offense.  He just needs a starting QB that can stay out of the hospital, unlike the qb that you think they should go with.  Availability is the best ability.  Slimmy G may be the least available QB in the league.  That’s not just a thought.....that, is a fact.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

So you’re saying that one 15M contract is worth more to a team than 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd. Got it.

 

so you’re saying that the niners should rest their future on a QB has been injured and knocked out for the year in 2 of his last 3 seasons rather than draft a Qb that they have evaluated and deemed worthy of being their franchise qb, over their injury prone and unreliable AB.  Got it.  
 

Personally, I think Fields is the best fit.  I eliminated fields from my original post purely based on Mike Lombardi saying that the niners won’t be taking fields.  My next choice would be Lance, because has everything that you look for in a QB minus years of experience vs major colleges.  I’m not a fan of trading up for Mac, but if he’s as cerebral as they say, he might be worth the pick.  Shanahan has shown that he can win without a great passing offense.  He just needs a starting QB that can stay out of the hospital, unlike the qb that you think they should go with.  Availability is the best ability.  Slimmy G may be the least available QB in the league.  That’s not just a thought.....that, is a fact.

 

It costs more, yes.  Rookie contracts are free.  If a 1st rounder busts out (sign odds), few dollars lost.  Better luck next time.  If Pitts is a superstar, they can trade Kittles and get those other 2 1st rounders back, easily.

 

Which QB is it I think they should go with?  Oh, you mean JG?  He's the only starter they have--and he's a 28 million dead cap hit this year, so he's not going anywhere. 

 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It costs more, yes.  Rookie contracts are free.  If a 1st rounder busts out (sign odds), few dollars lost.  Better luck next time.  If Pitts is a superstar, they can trade Kittles and get those other 2 1st rounders back, easily.

 

Which QB is it I think they should go with?  Oh, you mean JG?  He's the only starter they have--and he's a 28 million dead cap hit this year, so he's not going anywhere. 

 

 

 

 

Costing more and being more valuable are two completely different things.  You said that the niners wouldn’t pay Kittle because he wasn’t worth it to their offense.....yet it’s worthwhile to spend 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd on another TE after paying a TE 15M a year.  Truly makes no sense

 

You moved the decimal point a bit too far.  jimmy G had a 28M dead cap hit last season. 2.8M this season.  
 

You think they should take Pitts, after trading their 1st rd picks for the next 2 seasons.....meanwhile Jimmy G is their QB. The same QB that hasn’t been able to finish 2 of the last 3 years and we saw what happened to them without their starting QB.  Now.....they have 2 great TEs, Deebo and Aiyuk + a QB that will most likely get hurt and miss the playoffs.  Makes a lot of sense.....for a GM that is hoping to get fired. At this point the new GM will have no ammo to acquire a qb that has the ability every GM is looking for in a QB.  Availability.  Or they can draft a qb now, when they’re in position to draft one that they likely have already identified and traded up for. 
 

I don’t know if any of these QBs will pan out, no one does.  I do know that a QB is WAY more valuable than a TE when building a championship team.  Shanahan has wasted 2 full season because jimmy g couldn’t stay on the field.  He’d be a fool to trade 3 1st and a 3rd and put all of his eggs in the jimmy g basket.  
 

you haven’t yet commented on Jimmy Gs lack of availability.  Do you have an opinion on it?  Do you think his injuries are just dumb luck and that he’ll be healthy going forward?

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I think Fields is pretty comfortably the most accurate QB in this draft. Fields had a good support cast no doubt, but nobody has anything close to what Alabama has. I know others like Benjamin Solak and PFF do more in-depth charting that came to the same conclusion (Fields being #1 in terms of accuracy), but in my personal charting of the QBs, Fields threw a perfectly placed or nearly perfectly placed ball on 53% of his passes and was accurate on 80%. Mac was at 46% and 69% respectively, which is currently 4th or 5th in the class out of the 6 that I've charted so far.

Lance is a guy that those that liked Josh Allen as a prospect should love. Those that didn't like Allen probably won't like Lance either. He's a better decision maker and runner than Allen was in college but very similar otherwise, accuracy questions and all.

I truly appreciate the work you've put in, but how can a 77.4 percent completion-rate passer be only 69 percent accurate? Are you saying that 8.4 percent of the receptions were basically circus catches?

 

Btw, this is a pretty interesting piece, especially the QBR data later in the piece w/regard to pressure: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/how-justin-fields-mac-jones-pro-days-compared-49ers-qb-choice-looms. The piece has good things to say about Fields too.

Edited April 19, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Gordio]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

From Albert Breer’s MMQB column today:

 

‘Here are 20 other things you need to know …

1) When I had Dilfer on my podcast, he said that Jones has a “twitchy mind,” a reference to how fast he processes and plays. This, so you know, checks out with NFL people. One team told me that it asked him in April to recall the first thing they’d installed with him over predraft meetings, and Jones immediately spit out everything about the play. And remember, at this point of the process, these kids have a lot floating around in their heads, given the number of teams (and other people) they’re talking to. “He’s as smart as advertised,” said one exec. “I’d say borderline genius when it comes to football.”

2) Obviously, the possibility that Jones would be in play has led to a lot of intrigue with the Niners at No. 3. The team’s brass is still swearing to other teams that they haven’t made a final decision on what they plan to do. Seem impossible? Sure it does, until you really think about it. Of course, Kyle Shanahan had a leaning when the trade was made. He’d done two months of work on those guys. It’d be hard not to have one at that point. But what if, for argument’s sake, Shanahan came to a comfort level with one of the three quarterbacks (beyond Lawrence and Wilson) that the Niners saw as first-rounders? And what if he said, I can see Mac Jones being my quarterback for the next 15 years? And what if he was also intrigued by Lance and Fields, but used Jones as the baseline, the I know I’m going to like what I get at No. 3 regardless guy? And what if that was just the starting point for a month of work to get to know all three and make the best call? That, it seems to me, would be a smart approach for a smart organization. And honestly, I think it is their approach.‘

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/19/mmqb-nfl-draft-primer-20-things-to-know-offseason-workout-squabble

 

From Peter King’s column:

 

”3. SAN FRANCISCO. Today’s the last day of substance in fact-finding for the Niners, with GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan expected in Fargo at North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s second workout. The leader in the clubhouse is still Alabama’s Mac Jones, but that’s all Jones is. Credit to Lynch and Shanahan for keeping a tight lid on their preference. I keep coming back to Jones’ accuracy (his 77.4-percent season in 2020 is the most accurate in major-college history) and his touch downfield, with the best accuracy of the top five quarterbacks on passes thrown 20 yards or more downfield.

I think Shanahan will value accuracy and presence over athleticism and prefer Jones, but that’s not inside info—just my gut feeling.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

 

 

 

The other thing I like about Jones is he didn't bail out and find an easy place to start.  He stuck it out at bama, I think he was the 4th string qb at one point.  That tells me he is a fierce competitor and doesnt mind being in a tough situation.  Why don't you like Fields?  

[YoloinOhio]

 

[dave mcbride]

15 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

The other thing I like about Jones is he didn't bail out and find an easy place to start.  He stuck it out at bama, I think he was the 4th string qb at one point.  That tells me he is a fierce competitor and doesnt mind being in a tough situation.  Why don't you like Fields?  

I don't hate Fields or anything like that; it's just that in the games I've watched, he doesn't seem to handle pressure well and the ball doesn't come out quickly because of his uneconomical throwing motion. More broadly, I question his accuracy when under any pressure. He may turn out to be a great player in time, but I feel like SF needs someone who can play well NOW, and I think Fields in 2021 is going to struggle mightily with NFL defenses.  Mac Jones seems like that player who can come in and get you to 5-3 if the starter goes down, and he does in fact have some boom potential.

 

To be sure, Jones could be the next Matt Barkley (a great college QB on a loaded squad who was highly touted as a top five pick the year before he came out), but I doubt it. He appears to have a measurably better arm than Barkley. I guess I'd say the floor for him is Barkley and the ceiling Payton Manning (not in terms of projected career productivity; rather in terms of the productivity that results from his style of play if he's as accurate and as quick a processor as advertised).  With Fields, I'd say the ceiling is Josh Allen (plus maybe Cam?) and the floor RG III. It is worth noting that Shanahan coached RG III in his great rookie season ... 

 

As I said elsewhere, I think NE is the best fit for Fields, but they'll have to trade up to get him assuming the Niners don't take him.

Edited April 19, 2021 by dave mcbride

[chongli]

This post would have made a good poll.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't hate Fields or anything like that; it's just that in the games I've watched, he doesn't seem to handle pressure well and the ball doesn't come out quickly because of his uneconomical throwing motion. More broadly, I question his accuracy when under any pressure. He may turn out to be a great player in time, but I feel like SF needs someone who can play well NOW, and I think Fields in 2021 is going to struggle mightily with NFL defenses.  Mac Jones seems like that player who can come in and get you to 5-3 if the starter goes down, and he does in fact have some boom potential.

 

To be sure, Jones could be the next Matt Barkley (a great college QB on a loaded squad who was highly touted as a top five pick the year before he came out), but I doubt it. He appears to have a measurably better arm than Barkley. I guess I'd say the floor for him is Barkley and the ceiling Payton Manning (not in terms of projected career productivity; rather in terms of the productivity that results from his style of play if he's as accurate and as quick a processor as advertised).  With Fields, I'd say the ceiling is Josh Allen (plus maybe Cam?) and the floor RG III. It is worth noting that Shanahan coached RG III in his great rookie season ... 

 

As I said elsewhere, I think NE is the best fit for Fields, but they'll have to trade up to get him assuming the Niners don't take him.

 

Mac's ceiling is Kirk Cousins to me. Now Kyle likes Kirk Cousins.... I just don't think he "trade up to #3 in the draft" likes him. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Mac's ceiling is Kirk Cousins to me. Now Kyle likes Kirk Cousins.... I just don't think he "trade up to #3 in the draft" likes him. 

Hard to say. My wife went to MSU, and I saw a lot of Cousins in college. Jones is a lot better than Cousins was as a college player (not that Cousins was bad at MSU).  Also, not to belabor the point, but Shanahan's won/loss record is what will determine whether he's retained or fired in the next 1-2 years, and terrible backup QB play is why he's 29-35 so far. The rest of the team has been at least pretty good the last four seasons. I don't think people factor that in enough. Job preservation mode is an actual thing, and the one area that I think Jones excels in vis-a-vis the other prospects is his ability to come in right away and be competent. You simply cannot count on JG to stay healthy. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Hard to say. My wife went to MSU, and I saw a lot of Cousins in college. Jones is a lot better than Cousins was as a college player (not that Cousins was bad at MSU).  Also, not to belabor the point, but Shanahan's won/loss record is what will determine whether he's retained or fired in the next 1-2 years, and terrible backup QB play is why he's 29-35 so far. The rest of the team has been at least pretty good the last four seasons. I don't think people factor that in enough. Job preservation mode is an actual thing, and the one area that I think Jones excels in vis-a-vis the other prospects is his ability to come in right away and be competent. You simply cannot count on JG to stay healthy. 

 

I agree San Fran need to win now to keep Lynch and Kyle in jobs. But I dispute the assertion that that leads them to Mac Jones. I don't think Mac is any more sure to win now than any of the others and his ceiling is definitely lower to my eyes. Now I could be wrong about that, sure. But I really struggle with watching the tape of Mac (who I don't hate at all by the way) after watching any of the other four guys and then saying "he is in that class." I just don't think he is. 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree San Fran need to win now to keep Lynch and Kyle in jobs. But I dispute the assertion that that leads them to Mac Jones. I don't think Mac is any more sure to win now than any of the others and his ceiling is definitely lower to my eyes. Now I could be wrong about that, sure. But I really struggle with watching the tape of Mac (who I don't hate at all by the way) after watching any of the other four guys and then saying "he is in that class." I just don't think he is. 

So much of this comes down to who teams think has the best ability to guide a complex offense (relative to college offenses) against far more complex defenses than their college counterparts. Recall that RG III was an elite talent who in a Shanahan offense put up a great rookie season before immediately crashing and burning. I'm not saying Fields is that guy at all, but Jones is far more in the vein of the guys Shanahan has coached afterward: Cousins, Ryan, JG. None of them have cannon arms and none of them are mobile, but they have good-enough arms and are all good at running NFL offenses. Shanahan should have won a SB in Atlanta (his coaching cost them an easy win, not Ryan, who had a great game), and he had the Niners in position to beat KC but they lost it late on that overthrow by JG. Neither of those games showed that you can't win with those players given their coin-flip outcomes. I guess my bottom line is that I don't think Shanahan is totally safe (and nor should he be), and people in danger seek security. Jones may represent the most secure option to him given the nature of his game. I don't give a rat's ass if he's not deemed worthy of going #3. If you believe that a particular QB is the guy you need, then damn the torpedoes and go get him. And if you turn out to be correct about him, all the draftniks can go pound sand.   

Edited April 19, 2021 by dave mcbride

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I truly appreciate the work you've put in, but how can a 77.4 percent completion-rate passer be only 69 percent accurate? Are you saying that 8.4 percent of the receptions were basically circus catches?

 

Btw, this is a pretty interesting piece, especially the QBR data later in the piece w/regard to pressure: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/how-justin-fields-mac-jones-pro-days-compared-49ers-qb-choice-looms. The piece has good things to say about Fields too.

Not necessarily circus catches, but throws that are behind his targets, deeps balls where the WR has to stop and come back to the ball, etc. The 69% isn't all completions either; it includes well thrown balls that were dropped or just weren't converted (like contested catches that aren't technically drops). I also didn't chart all of the games, but I'm fairly certain he completed well over 70% of his passes in the games I charted anyways so basically the same point of it.

[ehfeuh57]

• Fields

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree San Fran need to win now to keep Lynch and Kyle in jobs. But I dispute the assertion that that leads them to Mac Jones. I don't think Mac is any more sure to win now than any of the others and his ceiling is definitely lower to my eyes. Now I could be wrong about that, sure. But I really struggle with watching the tape of Mac (who I don't hate at all by the way) after watching any of the other four guys and then saying "he is in that class." I just don't think he is. 

Yeah, I tend to think you're probably more likely to win now with Lance or Fields than Mac personally. Mac will probably get the ball out on time more often than Lance and definitely more often than Fields IMO, but I think Lance is close enough in terms of reading defenses that his legs will make him more impactful right away than Mac would be. A little tougher for Fields, but he's probably the best pure passer in the class while also being a great athlete so that naturally will give him a good chance for early success if he has the right coach.