Weak Draft Class?

[Bill from NYC]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Polite, non-aggressive disagreement.

 

IMO we've got a class that is less developed than any in history, a class that missed many games and activities of their senior season.

 

We just don't know as well as usual what we've got. And they're not as far along the road as most have historically  been. They'll require more work.

Great post! 

 

The above makes the situation harder for GMs imo. The college coaches probably have the best handle on players but it does seem to me that they don't always tell the truth to NFL GMs unless they have an established relationship. In fact, Saban said on the HBO Special (Belichick/Saban) that most teams don't even call him before drafting Alabama players. This seems odd, and i am thinking that there must be a reason.

 

My point is that it is great that we have a good management team in place. It was SO bad for SO long that I am still adjusting to it.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’m glad Beane > us as a collective unit. I think he’ll do the right thing, whatever that may br

Is he though?

[Back2Buff]

The more I watch and read about this draft class, the more it becomes evident, that this draft class stinks outside of QB.  This draft class is entirely top heavy.  The top 10 picks are good, other than that, good luck.

 

I'm at the point where I'm just taking Rondale Moore and going for the gusto.  IMO, he has the most potential to be a game changing player.  The kid is a cheat code, much like Hill is.  Will he stay healthy, who knows?

[Governor]

4 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

The more I watch and read about this draft class, the more it becomes evident, that this draft class stinks outside of QB.  This draft class is entirely top heavy.  The top 10 picks are good, other than that, good luck.

 

I'm at the point where I'm just taking Rondale Moore and going for the gusto.  IMO, he has the most potential to be a game changing player.  The kid is a cheat code, much like Hill is.  Will he stay healthy, who knows?

I like the idea of WR. I just think we should take a bigger one. I guess it depends on how much they think Beas has left.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Is he though?

I think so

[BarleyNY]

15 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

It’s a shallow draft this year.  Read an article on that.  It broke down the number of prospects who signed with agents, players returning to college including those taking an extra year of eligibility. etc.  This is really the year to come out if you’re an UDFA level prospect.  I’ll post if I can find.  Also there’s an extra bit of uncertainty with many players because of less (or no) film from this season. 
 

Edit: found it.  It also points out that next year will have a surplus of depth.  Trading day 3 picks this year for next is an excellent strategy 

https://defector.com/this-could-be-the-thinnest-nfl-draft-in-living-memory/

Edited April 19, 2021 by BarleyNY

[Green Lightning]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think in terms of true first round talent it isn't that much weaker than recent drafts. I have 18 firsts which is more than say 2019 when I only had 16. 

 

But I definitely think it thins out fast. I won't go into the minutiae of my grading system but my 100th player last year had a 5.3 grade (which made him a lowish 3rd round grade). My 100th player this year is 4.7 which puts him slightly better than a mid 4th. 

 

The Bills are in a tricky spot at #30 because the true firsts will all likely be gone and could end up in a similar spot at #61 where all the true seconds are gone. 

 

There will be difference makers that come out of the late rounds of this draft. The challenge is finding them.

 

So I had a 3rd on Davis last year, he went in the 4th. I suspect he'd go at least a round earlier in 2021. 

He'd be a steal in the 3rd round as well.

[mjt328]

Like any other draft, it depends on the position.

 

Quarterback is incredibly strong at the top.  But not very deep after the initial five guys.

Wide Receiver and Offensive Tackle are both very strong at the top, and very deep into the mid-rounds.

 

Then you have a historically great Tight End prospect, but very little after him.

 

Unfortunately, the Bills need to upgrade the defense.  And this draft is pretty pathetic on the defensive side.

It's quite possible that nobody on the defensive side gets drafted into the Top 10.  The best bets are Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain, and neither of those guys are locks.  And by the time you reach Pick #30, the first-round caliber guys could be gone already.

 

Personally, I am hoping that Brandon Beane either:

a)  Trades up for someone like Kwity Paye or Jaycee Horn, if they manage to slip into the 20s

b)  Stays put and gets someone like Caleb Farley or Greggory Rousseau, who were ranked high two months ago and then dropped due to red flags

c)  Trades back 5-10 spots and gains an extra 2nd Round pick.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Personally, I am hoping that Brandon Beane either:

a)  Trades up for someone like Kwity Paye or Jaycee Horn, if they manage to slip into the 20s

b)  Stays put and gets someone like Caleb Farley or Greggory Rousseau, who were ranked high two months ago and then dropped due to red flags

c)  Trades back 5-10 spots and gains an extra 2nd Round pick.

 

 

This would already push us into round 2. Do you mean an extra 2nd in 2022?

[OldTimer1960]

36 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Like any other draft, it depends on the position.

 

Quarterback is incredibly strong at the top.  But not very deep after the initial five guys.

Wide Receiver and Offensive Tackle are both very strong at the top, and very deep into the mid-rounds.

 

Then you have a historically great Tight End prospect, but very little after him.

 

Unfortunately, the Bills need to upgrade the defense.  And this draft is pretty pathetic on the defensive side.

It's quite possible that nobody on the defensive side gets drafted into the Top 10.  The best bets are Micah Parsons and Patrick Surtain, and neither of those guys are locks.  And by the time you reach Pick #30, the first-round caliber guys could be gone already.

 

Personally, I am hoping that Brandon Beane either:

a)  Trades up for someone like Kwity Paye or Jaycee Horn, if they manage to slip into the 20s

b)  Stays put and gets someone like Caleb Farley or Greggory Rousseau, who were ranked high two months ago and then dropped due to red flags

c)  Trades back 5-10 spots and gains an extra 2nd Round pick.

 

 

I don’t think they would get and extra 2nd in return for moving down 10 spots.

[DCofNC]

To me this is the year you package your lower round picks to move up as high as possible and don’t pick anything beyond the 3rd round.  
 

My reasoning? At what position will a 4th round or later guy, in a weak class, have any real chance to make the roster?  The ONLY possible ones are LB and TE and I don’t really even see that.  You are going to be getting special teams guys at best. 

 

This roster, though far from perfect is going to be tough to crack.  Even positions I don’t feel great about, there’s a ton of talent that’s hard to displace.  DE, you have Addison, Hughes, Epenessa, Obada, Johnson that are all talented and hard to get rid of, then there are guys like Cox Jr and Love that are decent players in their own right.  I’m not saying you can’t upgrade, but you’re probably not getting a guy in the 4th who’s going to win a job and at best he’s looking at inactive on game day.

 

So where do you go? Who is going to get on the field?  Not happening at any premium position.  Depth is there in the secondary, there’s actually decent depth, albeit lack luster starters (my opinion) at LB, you have holes at 1Tech, DE can be upgraded as could TE, but you aren’t getting anybody better than what’s there after the 3rd. 
 

Sell the farm, go get 3 players and go to camp with more talent, less non sense. 

[mannc]

I kinda think the talk of it being a weak class is overblown. It’s weak in some areas (DE and DT) but strong in others (WR and CB seem pretty good) and QB class looks at least as good as last year.

[Back2Buff]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I kinda think the talk of it being a weak class is overblown. It’s weak in some areas (DE and DT) but strong in others (WR and CB seem pretty good) and QB class looks at least as good as last year.

 

The more you watch these CBs, the less you like them.  Honestly, most of them are trash to put it lightly.  They all have so many flaws.

[glazeduck]

There's too many ways to slice it to have a "one take fits all" approach to this draft class (or any draft class, really) and the uncertainty with Covid really just accentuates the nuances to that, but here's my best "broad swath" perspective on the class holistically. It's okay; strong in some areas, deep in others, weak across the board in a few...

• QB class is super top-heavy, but even after the big 5 there are 2 or 3 that may make some noise in the pros.
• RB class is doo doo after the first 2, I'm not even sold on Williams as being anything resembling a "stud" too far out, guy reminds me of Natrone Means in a lot of ways and -- shockingly -- means always had a tough time with durability. Adding another game to the schedule will do him no favors.
• WR class is VERY good, bordering on great. You've got 2 practically sure-fire studs and a 3rd who could also be elite if he can cut it at his diminutive size in the pros. Then a LONG list of guys who will either be solid #2 or #3s or who have intriguing potential that's going underappreciated due to covid.
• TE is like the RB class. 1 GOAT-level stud, a couple other guys who should be somewhat effective and a lot of back-end-of-the-roster guys, at best.
• OL class is very good. Gunner's talked about the OT class which is talented and deep, but I think the OG and C class is pretty solid too. Not as deep, but when a class looks like it's going to turn out 3-5 (or more) startable players, I tend to think that's at least a solid class.
• EDGE class is weird. There's a grouping of about 10 guys who realistically, when all's said and done, could all slot just about anywhere in their 1-10 rankings and I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not sure I see a true star among the group, with Phillips being the closest, but having legit questions himself, but because there are quite a few high-ceiling types in this class, I wouldn't be at all surprised to have one or two emerge as a true diamond.
• DT class is weird too. The big boys/NT/1T types aren't great, but there's also not a lot of separation from top to bottom so I could see quite a few being serviceable. I think the leaner 3T/gap-shooter/1gap type guys are solid, if unspectacular. Barmore's the closest thing to a standout star and has potential to get there, but there's another 8 or 9 guys that I think will have solid NFL careers.
• LB is solid and deep, but again, unspectacular (though Parsons will be a star if he has his head on right). 
• CB class is a lot like the WRs, 2 or 3 difference makers, another 8-10 guys who should be solid starters and a handful of intriguing upside guys.
• S class is fairly meh, looks like 4 or 5 guys will make it, but also won't be shocked if there's a CB convert or two who hang in there too, so it's certainly not bad.

 

Looking at this as a Bills fan, I would call drafting 2 or 3 solid players and 1 intriguing upside guy an extremely successful draft, and I think that's certainly achievable. Is it the greatest draft of all time? Certainly not, is it completely devoid of talent? Absolutely not. I think we'll see a good deal more "sleepers" coming out of the 5th and 6th and 7th rounds and probably more early round busts, just due to the limited film and ability to really get into guys' heads that teams have had in the past, but I feel *fine* about it overall.

Edited April 19, 2021 by glazeduck

[Captain Caveman]

8 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

This type of trade would cost more than that.  We would probably have to toss in the #2 this year, perhaps MUCH more depending on how far up you are trying to get.

 

How do you figure?  Typically this year's first is worth 2 future first rounders (or a 2nd this year and next year's 1st.)  Obviously depends on specifics and circumstances (and could be very different this year) but I don't think it's out of sorts to think that if there is a player a team really wants at 30 that they would trade us next year's first outright.

[billsfan89]

Not sure how a full Covid year in college football is going to play out in terms of the draft. But at pick 30 the Bills are primed to take the best talent available at CB, Edge, RB, TE or WR (they could also go NT but I don’t think there is any NT worth taking in that range.)

 

Ideally I would like to see an Edge player that is a good value taken, but that’s not always going to shake out. I think CB is likely to be the pick with an offensive skill position player being the dark horse. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

The more you watch these CBs, the less you like them.  Honestly, most of them are trash to put it lightly.  They all have so many flaws.

 

I am high on the top 4 corners but they will be long gone before #30. Other than that I don't like this corner class much and have been pretty consistent on that. 

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

There's too many ways to slice it to have a "one take fits all" approach to this draft class (or any draft class, really) and the uncertainty with Covid really just accentuates the nuances to that, but here's my best "broad swath" perspective on the class holistically. It's okay; strong in some areas, deep in others, weak across the board in a few...

• QB class is super top-heavy, but even after the big 5 there are 2 or 3 that may make some noise in the pros.
• RB class is doo doo after the first 2, I'm not even sold on Williams as being anything resembling a "stud" too far out, guy reminds me of Natrone Means in a lot of ways and -- shockingly -- means always had a tough time with durability. Adding another game to the schedule will do him no favors.
• WR class is VERY good, bordering on great. You've got 2 practically sure-fire studs and a 3rd who could also be elite if he can cut it at his diminutive size in the pros. Then a LONG list of guys who will either be solid #2 or #3s or who have intriguing potential that's going underappreciated due to covid.
• TE is like the RB class. 1 GOAT-level stud, a couple other guys who should be somewhat effective and a lot of back-end-of-the-roster guys, at best.
• OL class is very good. Gunner's talked about the OT class which is talented and deep, but I think the OG and C class is pretty solid too. Not as deep, but when a class looks like it's going to turn out 3-5 (or more) startable players, I tend to think that's at least a solid class.
• EDGE class is weird. There's a grouping of about 10 guys who realistically, when all's said and done, could all slot just about anywhere in their 1-10 rankings and I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not sure I see a true star among the group, with Phillips being the closest, but having legit questions himself, but because there are quite a few high-ceiling types in this class, I wouldn't be at all surprised to have one or two emerge as a true diamond.
• DT class is weird too. The big boys/NT/1T types aren't great, but there's also not a lot of separation from top to bottom so I could see quite a few being serviceable. I think the leaner 3T/gap-shooter/1gap type guys are solid, if unspectacular. Barmore's the closest thing to a standout star and has potential to get there, but there's another 8 or 9 guys that I think will have solid NFL careers.
• LB is solid and deep, but again, unspectacular (though Parsons will be a star if he has his head on right). 
• CB class is a lot like the WRs, 2 or 3 difference makers, another 8-10 guys who should be solid starters and a handful of intriguing upside guys.
• S class is fairly meh, looks like 4 or 5 guys will make it, but also won't be shocked if there's a CB convert or two who hang in there too, so it's certainly not bad.

 

Looking at this as a Bills fan, I would call drafting 2 or 3 solid players and 1 intriguing upside guy an extremely successful draft, and I think that's certainly achievable. Is it the greatest draft of all time? Certainly not, is it completely devoid of talent? Absolutely not. I think we'll see a good deal more "sleepers" coming out of the 5th and 6th and 7th rounds and probably more early round busts, just due to the limited film and ability to really get into guys' heads that teams have had in the past, but I feel *fine* about it overall.

 

Largely agree with this. I am bit lower on the WR class. I think it is very deep. I don't think it has as many top end talents as last year. What were Jefferson and Higgins? The 5th and 7th guys off the board last year? Studs as rookies. Think that is unlikely with this class. I think there are guys right throughout the draft thought who can play in the league. Just not as many who are going to be true #1 types. 

 

Corner I am a fair bit lower. I like the top 4. I then have two guys in round 2 and then a gaggle of scheme specific guys in rounds 3 and 4 who I think could be placeholder starters who bounce around the league for a bit but are not going to be second contract guys. 

[Pete]

Trade picks for next year 

[Bill from NYC]

3 hours ago, Captain Caveman said:

How do you figure?  Typically this year's first is worth 2 future first rounders (or a 2nd this year and next year's 1st.)  Obviously depends on specifics and circumstances (and could be very different this year) but I don't think it's out of sorts to think that if there is a player a team really wants at 30 that they would trade us next year's first outright.

You are correct. I got my responses confused. 😕

Sorry.

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, glazeduck said:

There's too many ways to slice it to have a "one take fits all" approach to this draft class (or any draft class, really) and the uncertainty with Covid really just accentuates the nuances to that, but here's my best "broad swath" perspective on the class holistically. It's okay; strong in some areas, deep in others, weak across the board in a few...

• QB class is super top-heavy, but even after the big 5 there are 2 or 3 that may make some noise in the pros.
• RB class is doo doo after the first 2, I'm not even sold on Williams as being anything resembling a "stud" too far out, guy reminds me of Natrone Means in a lot of ways and -- shockingly -- means always had a tough time with durability. Adding another game to the schedule will do him no favors.
• WR class is VERY good, bordering on great. You've got 2 practically sure-fire studs and a 3rd who could also be elite if he can cut it at his diminutive size in the pros. Then a LONG list of guys who will either be solid #2 or #3s or who have intriguing potential that's going underappreciated due to covid.
• TE is like the RB class. 1 GOAT-level stud, a couple other guys who should be somewhat effective and a lot of back-end-of-the-roster guys, at best.
• OL class is very good. Gunner's talked about the OT class which is talented and deep, but I think the OG and C class is pretty solid too. Not as deep, but when a class looks like it's going to turn out 3-5 (or more) startable players, I tend to think that's at least a solid class.
• EDGE class is weird. There's a grouping of about 10 guys who realistically, when all's said and done, could all slot just about anywhere in their 1-10 rankings and I wouldn't be shocked. I'm not sure I see a true star among the group, with Phillips being the closest, but having legit questions himself, but because there are quite a few high-ceiling types in this class, I wouldn't be at all surprised to have one or two emerge as a true diamond.
• DT class is weird too. The big boys/NT/1T types aren't great, but there's also not a lot of separation from top to bottom so I could see quite a few being serviceable. I think the leaner 3T/gap-shooter/1gap type guys are solid, if unspectacular. Barmore's the closest thing to a standout star and has potential to get there, but there's another 8 or 9 guys that I think will have solid NFL careers.
• LB is solid and deep, but again, unspectacular (though Parsons will be a star if he has his head on right). 
• CB class is a lot like the WRs, 2 or 3 difference makers, another 8-10 guys who should be solid starters and a handful of intriguing upside guys.
• S class is fairly meh, looks like 4 or 5 guys will make it, but also won't be shocked if there's a CB convert or two who hang in there too, so it's certainly not bad.

 

Looking at this as a Bills fan, I would call drafting 2 or 3 solid players and 1 intriguing upside guy an extremely successful draft, and I think that's certainly achievable. Is it the greatest draft of all time? Certainly not, is it completely devoid of talent? Absolutely not. I think we'll see a good deal more "sleepers" coming out of the 5th and 6th and 7th rounds and probably more early round busts, just due to the limited film and ability to really get into guys' heads that teams have had in the past, but I feel *fine* about it overall.

I think finding one future good starter and another good backup would be a win with the class and picking late in each round with no 4th round pick.