Weak Draft Class?

[Brennan Huff]

Probably better than the 2013 draft class. EJ Manuel was the only QB taken in the first round because of his big hands...

[BADOLBILZ]

35 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Beyond the 4th there doesn't appear to be a lot of value. This is due to the fact that less people declared for the draft. Read an article stating people will be drafted in the 6th and 7th that would normally be priority udfas.

 

I would say that "in a good year" this years 4th rounders would be 6th or 7th rounders.     I wouldn't characterize "normal" drafts as being good.     It's hit and miss.   Like 2016 was a BAD draft.   Look at the back half of that first round.     But still there were studs like Michael Thomas and Dak Prescott and Tyreek Hill and good players like Austin Hooper and Matt Judos and DJ Reader as you progressed past the first round.

 

Perhaps the takeaway from that 2016 draft was that taking "off the bus starters" wasn't a great idea in a hit and miss draft.     The Bills approach was lose-lose........they drafted guys with low ceilings and found out that they also had low floors.

 

 

[ghostwriter]

Yep, definitely seems to be a weak draft, at least to me.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

 

 

Polite, non-aggressive disagreement.

 

IMO we've got a class that is less developed than any in history, a class that missed many games and activities of their senior season.

 

We just don't know as well as usual what we've got. And they're not as far along the road as most have historically  been. They'll require more work.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Putin]

47 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Beyond the 4th there doesn't appear to be a lot of value. This is due to the fact that less people declared for the draft. Read an article stating people will be drafted in the 6th and 7th that would normally be priority udfas.

So maybe moving up is the way to go ?

[OldTimer1960]

4 minutes ago, Putin said:

So maybe moving up is the way to go ?

Problem is move up with what?  Value of the Bills’ picks is pretty low 1st and 2nd might get you to pick 19 if you can find a willing partner.

[artmalibu]

Maybe a good year to trade away later picks to move up early.  

 

No need to draft 5th and 6th rounders that wont make the team...

[Augie]

18 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

Maybe a good year to trade away later picks to move up early.  

 

No need to draft 5th and 6th rounders that wont make the team...

 

I’ll suggest we have faith in our front office. The best teams have an advantage in the face of adversity. That’s how they become the best teams. They can spot the gems.  

 

 

.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Augie

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

Maybe a good year to trade away later picks to move up early.  

 

No need to draft 5th and 6th rounders that wont make the team...

Agreed, but those picks don’t have much trade value.

[gonzo1105]

The problem I see is it isn’t exactly weak, but it’s weak at the Bills biggest needs. The Bills need a 1T, explosive edge, TE, CB, Big Nickel. There isn’t a lot there this year. I think that’s what has fans worried is they aren’t going to have guys contribute to those big areas. Outside of CB(which I think is also weak but everyone will have a different opinion on that) we don’t really have a guy 1st round quality to hang out hat on. 
 

Even the CBs that have been mentioned are reaches at 30. I expect Farley, Newsome, Horn, and Surtain to be gone. So that leaves us Samuel, Stokes, Campbell, Melifonwu guys who IMO would all be reaches at 30. 
 

Im starting to think that we are def going WR, RB, or OL with our first pick just because that’s where the value will reside. I’m leaning towards Elijah Moore at 30 right now

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I agree unless Paye or the Georgia kid are there i can’t see Beane going DE at 30.  Corner probably best value at that spot 

This is where I am as well. I think we can snare a good CB, then some speed at receiver and maybe some DT help to develop in rds 2&3.  Looks like depth draft to me.

 

Edit/note: I can't help but wonder what round Gabriel Davis would be mocked in this year's draft.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Green Lightning

[Putin]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Problem is move up with what?  Value of the Bills’ picks is pretty low 1st and 2nd might get you to pick 19 if you can find a willing partner.

Well if this is not a good draft class and there’s not much value especially in the lower rounds , then I don’t see a point of trading down like so many are suggesting, maybe it’s better to move up and try to grab a quality player/starter ( CB2 please) 

[Utah John]

I think Beane is asking himself, what are my needs going to be in 2023?  Which players are getting old or too expensive, who will need to be replaced after a year or two?  I think those are the "future holes" that Beane is going to try to fill.  Just like Epenesa, who didn't do badly but also didn't impress much in his rookie year, while we still had a list of decent D linemen, so we didn't need Epenesa to be great last year.  By 2022, he should be a very good, important player on the D.  

 

I think, if there's a good safety available, that will be the pick.  Hyde and Poyer are till playing well but are starting to get up there.  Letting Dean Marlowe walk was the clue for me.  Marlowe was a good substitute, but I think that slot is going to go to a high draft pick rookie, who can spend a year or so learning from Hyde and Poyer, and eventually take over for one of them.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

53 minutes ago, Utah John said:

I think Beane is asking himself, what are my needs going to be in 2023?  Which players are getting old or too expensive, who will need to be replaced after a year or two?  I think those are the "future holes" that Beane is going to try to fill.  Just like Epenesa, who didn't do badly but also didn't impress much in his rookie year, while we still had a list of decent D linemen, so we didn't need Epenesa to be great last year.  By 2022, he should be a very good, important player on the D.  

 

I think, if there's a good safety available, that will be the pick.  Hyde and Poyer are till playing well but are starting to get up there.  Letting Dean Marlowe walk was the clue for me.  Marlowe was a good substitute, but I think that slot is going to go to a high draft pick rookie, who can spend a year or so learning from Hyde and Poyer, and eventually take over for one of them.  

His only thought should be how do I win the SuperBowl in 2021 or 2022. 

[GunnerBill]

I think in terms of true first round talent it isn't that much weaker than recent drafts. I have 18 firsts which is more than say 2019 when I only had 16. 

 

But I definitely think it thins out fast. I won't go into the minutiae of my grading system but my 100th player last year had a 5.3 grade (which made him a lowish 3rd round grade). My 100th player this year is 4.7 which puts him slightly better than a mid 4th. 

 

The Bills are in a tricky spot at #30 because the true firsts will all likely be gone and could end up in a similar spot at #61 where all the true seconds are gone. 

 

There will be difference makers that come out of the late rounds of this draft. The challenge is finding them.

4 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

This is where I am as well. I think we can snare a good CB, then some speed at receiver and maybe some DT help to develop in rds 2&3.  Looks like depth draft to me.

 

Edit/note: I can't help but wonder what round Gabriel Davis would be mocked in this year's draft.

 

So I had a 3rd on Davis last year, he went in the 4th. I suspect he'd go at least a round earlier in 2021. 

[Utah John]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

His only thought should be how do I win the SuperBowl in 2021 or 2022. 

That's not how he's been approaching things.  He wants to establish a long-term winning situation, not a quick win followed by a collapse.

 

[Bill from NYC]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I consider this group of available players as mediocre..........but I will accept bad as a correct answer also because IMO the difference between mediocre and bad is the fact that I think some of the opt outs are going to be good.......and it's hard to tell without having 2020 tape on them.

 

Anytime you have so many unproductive, underachieving or disappointing players projected as first or second round picks....... based heavily on track #'s.......you are probably looking at a poor class.

 

Does this draft appear to you to be exceptionally strong at Offensive Tackle?

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

He said that is true for certain positions...DT CB...

[Bill from NYC]

11 hours ago, Captain Caveman said:

  I do wonder if the Bills don't see anyone they love at 30 if they would trade it away for a 1st next year.

This type of trade would cost more than that.  We would probably have to toss in the #2 this year, perhaps MUCH more depending on how far up you are trying to get.

11 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Probably better than the 2013 draft class. EJ Manuel was the only QB taken in the first round because of his big hands...

Yes and we got him after trading down 8 spots. This alone was a very strong indication that he would suck, ya know?

[Sundancer]

13 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

 

Tougher class to evaluate because of Covid season. I predict there will be more later round future gems than normal.