Weak Draft Class?

[OldTimer1960]

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

[whorlnut]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

Imo, this is a weak draft at edge rusher and too many on here think we need to go that direction at 30. I truly feel Kwity Paye is the only one worth it at 30. There is way too many question marks on the other rushers. 

[Bills2294]

I would argue that it is weak at certain positions, but a pretty average class overall. The opt-outs may have influenced the perception of some of the top prospects. It is a very weak class in terms of pass rushers (Oweh is seen as a 1st rounder despite having 0 sacks this past season) but there are a lot of quality wide receivers and cornerbacks. It's a pretty top-heavy draft which is why so many trades have been made to get into the top 10 and I suspect more deals will be made on draft day to snag an elite player like Pitts or Chase.

[LEBills]

Even weak draft classes have players from all rounds and all positions that become great players in the league. I think especially with how weird last year was for all sports we are undervaluing some of the guys coming out.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

I’m glad Beane > us as a collective unit. I think he’ll do the right thing, whatever that may br

[78thealltimegreat]

12 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

Really can’t argue there’s no cornerstone can’t miss guys after Lawrence and even Trevor has some things about him that are questionable... I saw Pitts in a bunch of games at Florida and he’s really good but there are long stretches you don’t even realize he’s playing not a once in 10 year kinda prospect ESPN keeps treating him as...and at other positions like CB and OT there seems to be solid depth but not any once in five years kinda guys 

[Playoff Win]

If it’s a weak draft then it’s a weak draft for all teams, not just the Bills. The question is: what should the Bills do with that information? Several options:

 

1) Look for strong positions in this draft, such as WR. 
 

2) Trade picks in this draft for picks next year.

 

3) Identify promising players who may have been overlooked.

 

I’m sure others could add to that list. Bottom line is that if this draft is weak, that’s all the more reason to focus on BPA over need. You need to come out of a draft like this with something of value, regardless of what that something might be. 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

 

 

I consider this group of available players as mediocre..........but I will accept bad as a correct answer also because IMO the difference between mediocre and bad is the fact that I think some of the opt outs are going to be good.......and it's hard to tell without having 2020 tape on them.

 

Anytime you have so many unproductive, underachieving or disappointing players projected as first or second round picks....... based heavily on track #'s.......you are probably looking at a poor class.

 

[OldTimer1960]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I consider this group of available players as mediocre..........but I will accept bad as a correct answer also because IMO the difference between mediocre and bad is the fact that I think some of the opt outs are going to be good.......and it's hard to tell without having 2020 tape on them.

 

Anytime you have so many unproductive, underachieving or disappointing players projected as first or second round picks....... based heavily on track #'s.......you are probably looking at a poor class.

 

I especially agree with this.

 

in a strong draft class, opt-outs would be down-graded some for uncertainty.  In this class it seems not only are they not down-graded, but they seem to be elevated because those that played this year were quite uninspiring.

 

Now, some of those opt-outs will be studs and some of hose opt-outs will be over-drafted duds.

 

My inclination is to go with whomever they think are High-floor guys to hopefully at least find some contributors.  
 

Many players in this draft have only one year of production and/or tape to go off of.

 

I could understand swinging for the fences on athletic traits this year, but I think I would lean towards those who have shown real production over athletic traits.

 

I think this might be a year to take productive players even if they aren’t at a “premium” position.  
 

This is such an odd year, that (I think) it would be wise to lean into positions where players are lesser valued like interior OL and RB.  I know the arguments against that, but what premium position players do you really like at 30 and 61?  
 

Bills have really very little draft ammo, but it might be wise to try to move up in round 1 or particularly 2.  At the end of round 2 in this draft, you will have to be sharp to even find good backups who might eventually start.

Edited April 18, 2021 by OldTimer1960

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I especially agree with this.

 

in a strong draft class, opt-outs would be down-graded some for uncertainty.  In this class it seems not only are they not down-graded, but they seem to be elevated because those that played this year were quite uninspiring.

 

Now, some of those opt-outs will be studs and some of hose opt-outs will be over-drafted duds.

 

My inclination is to go with whomever they think are High-floor guys to hopefully at least find some contributors.  
 

Many players in this draft have only one year of production and/or tape to go off of.

 

I could understand swinging for the fences on athletic traits this year, but I think I would lean towards those who have shown real production over athletic traits.

 

I think this might be a year to take productive players even if they aren’t at a “premium” position.  
 

This is such an odd year, that (I think) it would be wise to lean into positions where players are lesser valued like interior OL and RB.  I know the arguments against that, but what premium position players do you really like at 30 and 61?  
 

Bills have really very little draft ammo, but it might be wise to try to move up in round 1 or particularly 2.  At the end of round 2 in this draft, you will have to be sharp to even find good backups who might eventually start.

 

We are half in agreement:

 

I am on the Liam Eichenberg, Gregory Rousseau and Terrace Marshall bandwagons for this reason..........they have both produced when on the field and have upside and play premium positions.   To me, they are all off the board by #30........but as we get closer the big draftniks start getting fed more realistic info and it seems that generally it's believed at least one of them will make it to #30 so not giving up hope.

 

Regarding high floor players at lesser positions.......you can still add players who can just give you good floor production in those spots in free agency..........look at recent signing of Forrest Lamp.........very good upside but also started all 16 games last year.   I wouldn't abandon ship on high floor, premium positions just yet.

 

It's not a good draft but it really doesn't change my approach much.    The only real change would be that I'd be more amenable to trade a pick for a good player.   Having a "Diggs trade" type option come available this year would be an opportunity for a potential Win-Lose trade scenario where the bird in hand could be worth a lot more than the draft pick in the bush.   I don't mind win-wins like the Diggs trade but it's definitely more fun when you pants the other team.

[CaptnCoke11]

56 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Imo, this is a weak draft at edge rusher and too many on here think we need to go that direction at 30. I truly feel Kwity Paye is the only one worth it at 30. There is way too many question marks on the other rushers. 

I agree unless Paye or the Georgia kid are there i can’t see Beane going DE at 30.  Corner probably best value at that spot 

[IgotBILLStopay]

36 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think we’ve been depressed by our own mock drafts with who might be available at the Bills’ picks.  Just heard Gil Brandt claim that players picked in this year’s 4th round would have been roughly 6th round picks in the 2020 draft.  That certainly fits my perception.

 

Thoughts and counter arguments?

Caveat: I am not able to comment on lower round depth in the draft knowledgeably - I dont have the bandwidth to do that deep of a dive - though I am enamored by individual prospects like Cameron Sample. So my arguments and counter arguments relate to  first round type talent only.

 

Counter arguments: Not clear to me how Najee Harris and Travis Etienne are a significant drop off from draft time Leonard Fournettes, Saquan Barkleys or Ezekiel Elliotts. Similarly, Penei Sewell and Rashawn slater could be the top tackles taken any draft year. Lawrence is arguably better than even Luck, who was a once in 10 years type QB. Fields / Lance / Wilson would  be comparable to Winston / Mariota or Wentz / Goff, no? Surtain / Horn / Fairley are likely better than Okudah / Henderson. And Kyle Pitts is better at this time than Hockenson / Fant and Waddle / Chase / Smith compare favorably to last year's "great" WR class.

 

That being said, every draft has different strengths and weaknesses. One can make the argument that Edge Rushers and Defensive Tackles will not be well represented at the top of the draft. There is no Myles Garrett / Bosa / Chubb / Young type rusher but I submit that it is partially due to the top guys opting out of the college football season. I think Twyman, Rousseau, Parsons etc. have all suffered due to the opt outs. So I submit that the jury is still out on these guys. FWIW, I want us to get Gregory Rousseau, by trading up, if necessary.

 

As Bills fans, we will be biased. We have been picking in the top 15 forever - I submit that picks lower then 15 will appear underwhelming to us relative to prior years. And I freakin "Digg" it! I hope we have this problem every year.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, CaptnCoke11 said:

I agree unless Paye or the Georgia kid are there i can’t see Beane going DE at 30.  Corner probably best value at that spot 

Even Ojulari is a risky pick.  He is under-sized for 4-3 DE, but at least produced in the SEC.

[ProcessTruster]

Good year to not need a great draft.  That's my view.  Go Bills.   McBeanes are killing it.   In a bad draft year, they went and parlayed their culture into signing all their FAs!   Trust the process

[ndirish1978]

Beyond the 4th there doesn't appear to be a lot of value. This is due to the fact that less people declared for the draft. Read an article stating people will be drafted in the 6th and 7th that would normally be priority udfas.

Edited April 18, 2021 by ndirish1978

[John from Riverside]

I absolutely would not be shocked to see the bills go in an entirely different direction at 30 than most of us are thinking I still feel that it’s corner but it wouldn’t shock me to see them go wide receiver

[whorlnut]

42 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I agree unless Paye or the Georgia kid are there i can’t see Beane going DE at 30.  Corner probably best value at that spot 

I agree but unless it’s Farley I’m not interested. We already have an elite corner in Tre. Not every team has one elite corner, what makes you think McD would require two?  He has had a history of rolling with one elite guy and one guy that is another tier below. We already have that in Wallace and Jackson. Besides, if we do take a corner, it would make more sense to get one in round two or three where a really good one can be had. 
 

We need to start planning ahead for the days when Beasley and sanders are both gone. Beane said in his presser that you don’t wanna lose your fastball. Our fastball is our high octane passing game. If we can inject another top level talent in the offense we can keep rolling for years to come.

Edited April 18, 2021 by whorlnut

[Captain Caveman]

I saw something this past week (maybe in the Athletic or Defector?) about how just by numbers, there are a lot fewer players who have declared for the draft this year, and so many players are taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility due to Covid, so there is some math / data that backs that this will be the weakest draft class in a while.  Still, if 3 QBs end up being Pro Bowl type players, especially if Kyle Pitts and a RB or 2 become perennial all stars, I'm not sure it will be perceived as a weak draft in the future.  But I think depth wise, it's widely regarded as not a deep draft (and not a great year to be picking 30th probably.)  I do wonder if the Bills don't see anyone they love at 30 if they would trade it away for a 1st next year.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I’d rather move up to take 2 or 3 really good players then fill a draft with a bunch of depth guys that we don’t even need

[Just Joshin']

Gil Brandt on NFL radio today said a 4th round pick this year would have been a 6th round last year.  So yes, a weak class.

 

That said, there are always diamonds to be found.  Beane earns his pay in a weak year, not as much in a strong year.