Warren Sharp analysis on Bills draft needs

[YoloinOhio]

For the nerds!

Edited April 16, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[RochesterLifer]

It's going to take me a while to figure out what all these pretty pictures mean, but thank you!

[BuffaloRebound]

We were below average running the ball and were really bad defending the run.  

[Paul Costa]

Agree 💯. Didn’t know that nickel stat interesting and explains a little bit of why our run D was very pedestrian. 

[Governor]

I would still go ahead and draft WR if it’s BPA. 
 

I doubt that happens. We’re moving up for someone. Could it be Barmore?

[BuffaloBill]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

We were below average running the ball and were really bad defending the run.  

 

I would say we were bad in both

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

For the nerds!

Thanks for scraping the twitterverse yolo! 

[DJB]

Where's all them fools that keep telling me we aren't in nickle that often and its not a need? 

[Reed83HOF]

14 minutes ago, DJB said:

Where's all them fools that keep telling me we aren't in nickle that often and its not a need? 

Can never have enough DBs or WRs in this league

[TroutDog]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Can never have enough DBs or WRs in this league

Agreed. I’m interested to see what the late round kid from last year can do (WR). If he can be a red zone threat it would be fantastic. 
 

That allows for DE or CB towards the top of the draft. Personally, I’m less worried about RB. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

We were below average running the ball and were really bad defending the run.  

 

 

Very true.

 

Equally true that we got quite a bit better running the ball as the season went along.

 

First six games we ran for 92 YPG. And 3.81 YPC.

 

Last ten games 117 YPG. And 4.40 YPA

 

That is major improvement.

 

 

 

Defending the run:

 

First six games we allowed 131 YPG. And 4.58 YPC.

 

Last ten games we allowed 112.6 YPG. And 4.65 YPC.

 

That's improvement on a per game basis. The YPC got worse, though the difference is probably statistically insignificant. Being in nickel a lot undoubtedly affects that. Getting Lotulelei back should also really help with run defense, but certainly they can't look at that and say, "Well, Star's coming back, so we don't need to do anything else." That needs attention, and they're giving it attention.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBillies]

Those charts/graphs look like that game you play at the carnival where you have to squirt water into the hole.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

We were below average running the ball and were really bad defending the run.  

True, but the more this is considered, the more it is run play scheming that is the actual culprit on offense, imo SM/LF get a bit stuck in their ways and lack creativity concerning the D side of this conundrum. 

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

True, but the more this is considered, the more it is run play scheming that is the actual culprit on offense, imo SM/LF get a bit stuck in their ways and lack creativity concerning the D side of this conundrum. 

I think on defense it’s mostly a case of size especially in the back 7.  We have 5 DB’s on the field 91% of the time and those 5 DB’s are all 200 lbs or less.  Milano is a good LB but he’s on the smaller side as well.  Edmunds has the size but his calling card is coverage.  
It would be great if we could get a bigger guy on the field in place of one of the 5 smaller DB’s and not sacrifice coverage.  

[BarleyNY]

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Very true.

 

Equally true that we got quite a bit better running the ball as the season went along.

 

First six games we ran for 92 YPG. And 3.81 YPC.

 

Last ten games 117 YPG. And 4.40 YPA

 

That is major improvement.

 

 

 

Defending the run:

 

First six games we allowed 131 YPG. And 4.58 YPC.

 

Last ten games we allowed 112.6 YPG. And 4.65 YPC.

 

That's improvement on a per game basis. The YPC got worse, though the difference is probably statistically insignificant. Being in nickel a lot undoubtedly affects that. Getting Lotulelei back should also really help with run defense, but certainly they can't look at that and say, "Well, Star's coming back, so we don't need to do anything else." That needs attention, and they're giving it attention.

Those defensive stats show YPC going up slightly (probably unchanged from a statistically meaningful standpoint).  YPG went down but that’s solely because teams weren’t running the ball as much - 4 or 5 fewer times per game.  Looking at the scores of our games it’s pretty obvious why.  4-2 record over the first six games with only one one two score win.  9-1 over the last 10 games with a bunch of blowout wins.  Teams had to pass more in those games.  That’s all it was. 

[Don Otreply]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think on defense it’s mostly a case of size especially in the back 7.  We have 5 DB’s on the field 91% of the time and those 5 DB’s are all 200 lbs or less.  Milano is a good LB but he’s on the smaller side as well.  Edmunds has the size but his calling card is coverage.  
It would be great if we could get a bigger guy on the field in place of one of the 5 smaller DB’s and not sacrifice coverage.  

Speed and size is a difficult get at LB for us it appears, that would certainly help, better scheming/personnel usage would also help. 

[BuffaloRebound]

8 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Speed and size is a difficult get at LB for us it appears, that would certainly help, better scheming/personnel usage would also help. 

Doesn’t have to be an LB.  Replacing 5’11”/190 lb’s with 6’1”/210lb’s can make a difference too.  JOK would be ideal, but there’s plenty of DB’s in this draft who’d probably get significant playing time immediately.  

[Bookie Man]

I thought it said Warren Sapp. I was like, this man has come a long way! 😆

[colin]

we need an improvement in our run game, duh, and a BIG improvement stopping big runs.  given we were the best in the nfl at stopping big passes, a pass rush would help obv, but we need some players in the gut more than anything.  1t and maybe a a DE who can bang (that guy we got w the african name could be that, i hope so anyhow).  beyond that some combo of rb/te/og might get our run game going a little bit.

 

after having rewatched the kc game (groan) one more weapon who was actually healthy on O (TE or RB woulda been ideal) and if we stop 2 of those break away runs, we absolutely have a shot in the game.  when i saw it live it felt like we were dead after 4 drives, but in reality, a couple small differences woulda put us over the top.

[Solomon Grundy]

47 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Speed and size is a difficult get at LB for us it appears, that would certainly help, better scheming/personnel usage would also help. 

Zaven Collins cures all ailments here