Matt Miller's Team-by-Team Draft Rumors (what he's hearing about the Bills)

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

The reason why some think top of the 2nd is okay but bottom of 1sr is not is for 1st round picks the team has a 5th year option on contract.  It is rare that a team will use a 5th year option on a RB so it is seen as a waste.

I understand that is the logic, but I think this is over-hyped.  
 

Force-fitting an OK prospect at a high value position over a better prospect at a lesser position does not make much sense, to me.  Sure, roll the dice on an OK DE prospect and *maybe*, just maybe he will turn out to be good enough to exercise the 5th year option, but there are many where the option isn’t exercised.  I can certainly imagine a scenario where a player at a “lesser” position does have 5th year option exercised.  
 

I am not advocating for this, but I it hard to imagine someone like Landon Dickerson getting healthy and being good enough at C or G to use that option?

[maddenboy]

On 4/14/2021 at 3:11 PM, Brennan Huff said:

Fred Jackson went to Coe college 

Incorrect.  Fred Jackson went to Tiny Coe College.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

50 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Toney and Moore are great players, but the Bills need a Eric Moulds type receiver to compliment Diggs. Marshall Jr. is my guy. Could be the next best duo since Peerless and Moulds

Yeah true, Marshall has great speed and gives you size as well. Honestly a good shout. 

[Solomon Grundy]

16 hours ago, just1hugheser said:

Right so when I say "let the draft come to them"  I'm saying wait and see what value falls, does a Paye or Parsons/Phillips fall in the 15-20 range or does a WR(Toney/Marshall/Bateman) fall or do they have a real high grade on Etienne or Harris if they are there, how do they feel about JOK, Zaven Collins, Jamin Davis?

 

Will they wait on edge like Perkins or Roche?

I can see Roche being a Shaq Barrett type player. He can flat out get after the QB!! 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

This makes all too much sense and I’m hear for it

[NoSaint]

On 4/14/2021 at 10:48 AM, Logic said:

If you know Matt Miller, you know that he's one of the better voices in the scouting community. He's reasonably well connected, and he puts out good, sane, accurate content year after year.

He puts out an annual "what I'm hearing" article as the draft approaches, and it often contains good insight into which way teams are leaning. He has more info about some teams than others, but he shares at least a little something about all 32 teams.

The full version of this article is behind a paywall, but a kind soul shared a guest pass with me and I was able to read it. I may just end up subscribing to thedraftscout website anyway, because there's a lot of great content there.

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team

Here is what Miller says about the Bills:

Buffalo — A playmaker on either side of the ball is the rumor coming out of Buffalo. They’ll play the board and let talented athletes slip to them as always, but a speedy cornerback, yards-after-catch wide receiver or three-down running back would all get a lot of consideration here. That could easily be the first three picks for Buffalo.




...I don't know about the rest of you, but I find that pretty darn interesting. We all know they're looking for a more athletic and well-rounded cornerback, but the RAC receiver and three down running back tidbits -- and the lack of any mention of pass rushers or offensive linemen -- is eyebrow-raising.

p.s. Save me the "no one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out!" reply. Yes, the Bills run a tight ship. No, it's not impossible for certain well connected people to find out which ways they're leaning. Yes, it could all be a smokescreen -- but I doubt it. 

DE - unlikely to get an immediate game changer there

OL - we are win now and not likely to move the needle there 

 

you can find elite backs, athletic secondary players and good receivers there and all 3 are immediate contributors and fill holes down the line. 
 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see OL and DE on day 2 though as a more developmental piece 

[gonzo1105]

Yea I’m starting to think Bills are going WR, CB first two rounds just based on value

[OrtonHearsaWho]

On 4/14/2021 at 4:45 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

injury and size concerns with him - not saying he couldn't be a consideration, but he does not fit all of the desired parameters.

 

I'm hoping both of those things bump him to the second round but wouldn't be upset if we took him at 30.  He reminds me of Steve Smith a bit but faster.  Either Moore at 30 would be a better move than a RB at 30.

[billsfan89]

It will likely be a case of the Bills just letting the draft come to them. I can see DE or CB being the pick on the defensive side or if they go offense it will be WR or RB. In terms of team need Edge is by far the teams biggest need but I don’t see McBeane reaching if there just isn’t one there that makes sense. 
 

NT And TE are also needs but I don’t see that lining up either. Overall it is just going to come down to who is available at pick 30 and that’s a good spot to be in.

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

It will likely be a case of the Bills just letting the draft come to them. I can see DE or CB being the pick on the defensive side or if they go offense it will be WR or RB. In terms of team need Edge is by far the teams biggest need but I don’t see McBeane reaching if there just isn’t one there that makes sense. 
 

NT And TE are also needs but I don’t see that lining up either. Overall it is just going to come down to who is available at pick 30 and that’s a good spot to be in.

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

[whorlnut]

23 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

I don’t want Basham at all. Imo he is much of the same player as Epenesa, who am still pissed that they took. We don’t need another lumbering DE that they ask to lose a bunch of weight. Either find that guy who is that player already or don’t draft a guy trying to change his playing style. 

[fergie's ire]

On 4/15/2021 at 6:49 PM, maddenboy said:

Incorrect.  Fred Jackson went to Tiny Coe College.

Really?!  Did you know that Marv Levy went there, too?

[JaCrispy]

27 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I don’t want Basham at all. Imo he is much of the same player as Epenesa, who am still pissed that they took. We don’t need another lumbering DE that they ask to lose a bunch of weight. Either find that guy who is that player already or don’t draft a guy trying to change his playing style. 

AJ got a lot faster once he lost the weight, and he started coming on in the last few games...curious to see his growth this season...I still think he has good potential...👍

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30.  Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there.  I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

I don’t think they are going to target interior Oline at pick 30, I think with the resigning of Mongo and the productive play of Ike and Ford being there for depth and competition I just don’t see McBeane passing on other more impactful players who will likely be there either at corner, edge or a offensive skill position. It isn’t impossible but it is rather unlikely.

 

I see Edge and Corner as the most likely possibilities with an offensive skill position player being possible if the value isn’t there.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

If BPA at 30 is an offensive lineman I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull the trigger....especially if he can play LT. 
 

If I had to guess, as of right now I’d bet they take a corner at 30. 

 

LT?  LOL!  No.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

If BPA at 30 is an offensive lineman I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull the trigger....especially if he can play LT. 
 

If I had to guess, as of right now I’d bet they take a corner at 30. 

I just don’t see a draft scenario where a LT or an Oline fits, it would be a depth pick at pick 30 when this team has legit needs (Edge, CB,NT or TE) and other areas where a “luxury” pick could be more useful (WR or RB.)

 

I just think it is far more likely a player falls that fits one of those many other catagories.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

LT?  LOL!  No.

 

A tackle is not out of the question. Williams is basically a 1 year deal if they want it to be. The point I think @ScottLaw was making about left tackle is if you are drafting a tackle in round 1 you should always be asking "can he play left tackle?" Even if your intention is to start him initially on the right or at guard because you have your left tackle already in situ.

I don't think it will be a tackle at #30 but I don't think it is unthinkable.

[MrSarcasm]

8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I don’t think they are going to target interior Oline at pick 30, I think with the resigning of Mongo and the productive play of Ike and Ford being there for depth and competition I just don’t see McBeane passing on other more impactful players who will likely be there either at corner, edge or a offensive skill position. It isn’t impossible but it is rather unlikely.

 

I see Edge and Corner as the most likely possibilities with an offensive skill position player being possible if the value isn’t there.

I'll disagree here. Center is a very high possibility here.

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

I'll disagree here. Center is a very high possibility here.

Creed Humphrey could be a darkhorse man.....he could realistically beat out Mongo or Ford and slide into center in 2022. 

[stinky finger]

On 4/17/2021 at 1:02 PM, OrtonHearsaWho said:

 

I'm hoping both of those things bump him to the second round but wouldn't be upset if we took him at 30.  He reminds me of Steve Smith a bit but faster.  Either Moore at 30 would be a better move than a RB at 30.