Matt Miller's Team-by-Team Draft Rumors (what he's hearing about the Bills)

[Logic]

If you know Matt Miller, you know that he's one of the better voices in the scouting community. He's reasonably well connected, and he puts out good, sane, accurate content year after year.

He puts out an annual "what I'm hearing" article as the draft approaches, and it often contains good insight into which way teams are leaning. He has more info about some teams than others, but he shares at least a little something about all 32 teams.

The full version of this article is behind a paywall, but a kind soul shared a guest pass with me and I was able to read it. I may just end up subscribing to thedraftscout website anyway, because there's a lot of great content there.

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team

Here is what Miller says about the Bills:

Buffalo — A playmaker on either side of the ball is the rumor coming out of Buffalo. They’ll play the board and let talented athletes slip to them as always, but a speedy cornerback, yards-after-catch wide receiver or three-down running back would all get a lot of consideration here. That could easily be the first three picks for Buffalo.




...I don't know about the rest of you, but I find that pretty darn interesting. We all know they're looking for a more athletic and well-rounded cornerback, but the RAC receiver and three down running back tidbits -- and the lack of any mention of pass rushers or offensive linemen -- is eyebrow-raising.

p.s. Save me the "no one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out!" reply. Yes, the Bills run a tight ship. No, it's not impossible for certain well connected people to find out which ways they're leaning. Yes, it could all be a smokescreen -- but I doubt it. 

[YoloinOhio]

Etienne can’t pass block so must be Harris. No way they put him out there on 3rd down in this offense if he can’t pass block 

Lots of good YAC options - Elijah Moore In the 1st 

Speedy CB is a straight up NEED

[Conlan58]

No one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Etienne can’t pass block so must be Harris. No way they put him out there on 3rd down in this offense if he can’t pass block 

Lots of good YAC options - Elijah Moore In the 1st 

Speedy CB is a straight up NEED

The popular wisdom is that they're taking a corner or edge rusher in round 1.

I'm starting to wonder, though, if it's actually going to be an offensive playmaker in round 1, followed by a corner in round 2. The depth of the corner class leads me to think they can reasonably select a starting caliber corner in round 2 or even round 3. 

Beane always says that playoff losses show you where you're lacking. Our loss to the Chiefs showed us lacking in coverage and pass rush, sure....but don't tell me Beane didn't notice the elite speed and playmaking capability of the KC offense, too. Whereas the Bills have a great receiving corps as is, what they DON'T have -- either in the WR or RB room -- is an "instant offense" guy like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

If you know Matt Miller, you know that he's one of the better voices in the scouting community. He's reasonably well connected, and he puts out good, sane, accurate content year after year.

He puts out an annual "what I'm hearing" article as the draft approaches, and it often contains good insight into which way teams are leaning. He has more info about some teams than others, but he shares at least a little something about all 32 teams.

The full version of this article is behind a paywall, but a kind soul shared a guest pass with me and I was able to read it. I may just end up subscribing to thedraftscout website anyway, because there's a lot of great content there.

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team

Here is what Miller says about the Bills:

Buffalo — A playmaker on either side of the ball is the rumor coming out of Buffalo. They’ll play the board and let talented athletes slip to them as always, but a speedy cornerback, yards-after-catch wide receiver or three-down running back would all get a lot of consideration here. That could easily be the first three picks for Buffalo.




...I don't know about the rest of you, but I find that pretty darn interesting. We all know they're looking for a more athletic and well-rounded cornerback, but the RAC receiver and three down running back tidbits -- and the lack of any mention of pass rushers or offensive linemen -- is eyebrow-raising.

p.s. Save me the "no one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out!" reply. Yes, the Bills run a tight ship. No, it's not impossible for certain well connected people to find out which ways they're leaning. Yes, it could all be a smokescreen -- but I doubt it. 

 

I mean "a playmaker on either side of the ball" seems a pretty general assertion for a team that has its QB, its WR1, and its CB1 in place, and was successful last year. 

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

The popular wisdom is that they're taking a corner or edge rusher in round 1.

 

Well, we need to get more pressure/pass rush from somewhere, and unless you think Efe Obada is "it", FA didn't do it for us.

 

On OL we obviously added a lot of pieces to provide either depth or competition.  Ditto LB.  Not so much on DL, especially at Edge.

 

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm starting to wonder, though, if it's actually going to be an offensive playmaker in round 1, followed by a corner in round 2.

 

Daboll has on a couple of occasions made the point that there's only one 1st round pick on the offensive side of the ball.

 

I think Beane would disagree and point to Stefon Diggs, but the point remains that the Bills seem to have more high round picks invested in D than in O.

[YoloinOhio]

14 minutes ago, Logic said:

The popular wisdom is that they're taking a corner or edge rusher in round 1.

I'm starting to wonder, though, if it's actually going to be an offensive playmaker in round 1, followed by a corner in round 2. The depth of the corner class leads me to think they can reasonably select a starting caliber corner in round 2 or even round 3. 

Beane always says that playoff losses show you where you're lacking. Our loss to the Chiefs showed us lacking in coverage and pass rush, sure....but don't tell me Beane didn't notice the elite speed and playmaking capability of the KC offense, too. Whereas the Bills have a great receiving corps as is, what they DON'T have -- either in the WR or RB room -- is an "instant offense" guy like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman. 

I listened to the interview With Dan Morgan on Eric wood’s podcast and he said without giving away their draft plans, it was clear to them some of the reasons they lost their “big games” (ie out of the 4 going to assume he means the 2 vs KC). 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean "a playmaker on either side of the ball" seems a pretty general assertion for a team that has its QB, its WR1, and its CB1 in place, and was successful last year. 

I suppose, but I also think it rules out an offensive lineman and perhaps a developmental edge rusher, as well. 

He also suggests a yards-after-catch WR and a three-down RB as being likely possibilities at that spot, which not many in Bills fan land are forecasting at the moment

[H2o]

Terrace Marshall from LSU comes to mind in the back end of the 1st as well. 

[Reed83HOF]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

The popular wisdom is that they're taking a corner or edge rusher in round 1.

I'm starting to wonder, though, if it's actually going to be an offensive playmaker in round 1, followed by a corner in round 2. The depth of the corner class leads me to think they can reasonably select a starting caliber corner in round 2 or even round 3. 

Beane always says that playoff losses show you where you're lacking. Our loss to the Chiefs showed us lacking in coverage and pass rush, sure....but don't tell me Beane didn't notice the elite speed and playmaking capability of the KC offense, too. Whereas the Bills have a great receiving corps as is, what they DON'T have -- either in the WR or RB room -- is an "instant offense" guy like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman. 

 

 

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

I like it.....a lot.

[GunnerBill]

@Logic I have been a subscriber since he soft launched in January. Lots of good content, regular ask Matt video calls, some fun member mock drafts... I think it is well worth the money and honestly I am not on the payroll!

[BuffaloBill]

29 minutes ago, Logic said:

If you know Matt Miller, you know that he's one of the better voices in the scouting community. He's reasonably well connected, and he puts out good, sane, accurate content year after year.

He puts out an annual "what I'm hearing" article as the draft approaches, and it often contains good insight into which way teams are leaning. He has more info about some teams than others, but he shares at least a little something about all 32 teams.

The full version of this article is behind a paywall, but a kind soul shared a guest pass with me and I was able to read it. I may just end up subscribing to thedraftscout website anyway, because there's a lot of great content there.

https://www.thedraftscout.com/p/matt-millers-scouting-notebook-team

Here is what Miller says about the Bills:

Buffalo — A playmaker on either side of the ball is the rumor coming out of Buffalo. They’ll play the board and let talented athletes slip to them as always, but a speedy cornerback, yards-after-catch wide receiver or three-down running back would all get a lot of consideration here. That could easily be the first three picks for Buffalo.




...I don't know about the rest of you, but I find that pretty darn interesting. We all know they're looking for a more athletic and well-rounded cornerback, but the RAC receiver and three down running back tidbits -- and the lack of any mention of pass rushers or offensive linemen -- is eyebrow-raising.

p.s. Save me the "no one knows anything, it's all a smokescreen, Beane doesn't let his secrets out!" reply. Yes, the Bills run a tight ship. No, it's not impossible for certain well connected people to find out which ways they're leaning. Yes, it could all be a smokescreen -- but I doubt it. 

 

 

Please not a RB in the first round. 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

@Logic I have been a subscriber since he soft launched in January. Lots of good content, regular ask Matt video calls, some fun member mock drafts... I think it is well worth the money and honestly I am not on the payroll!

Thanks.

I've been spending the morning combing through the site, pondering whether or not to subscribe once my guest pass expires. I already pay for The Athletic, where Dane Brugler just released his annual "the Beast" draft guide, which is great. I'm willing to pay for good journalism and quality content, and Miller certainly provides that.

In reading past Bills nuggets from Miller, I saw him say that he believes the Bills would be "all over" Elijah Moore if he fell to them. Thought that was interesting, too.

Oh, and @Reed83HOF : That was an excellent addition to this thread. Thank you!

Edited April 14, 2021 by Logic

[Reed83HOF]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean "a playmaker on either side of the ball" seems a pretty general assertion for a team that has its QB, its WR1, and its CB1 in place, and was successful last year. 

 

Well, we need to get more pressure/pass rush from somewhere, and unless you think Efe Obada is "it", FA didn't do it for us.

 

On OL we obviously added a lot of pieces to provide either depth or competition.  Ditto LB.  Not so much on DL, especially at Edge.

 

 

Daboll has on a couple of occasions made the point that there's only one 1st round pick on the offensive side of the ball.

 

I think Beane would disagree and point to Stefon Diggs, but the point remains that the Bills seem to have more high round picks invested in D than in O.

Phillips is an FA next year,  star is our only 1T, we need to add there. 

 

The focus of offense vs defense, we didn't punt a whole lot last year and scored a ton of points, the defense was really not that great at getting stops. Our offense still needs work, there were too many 3rd and longs for my liking, but that could be a play calling type issue, inability to run and the d just making good plays. We couldn't switch between a run game and throwing to keep a defense honest. 

 

All that being said, the D couldn't consistently shut the door on an opponent, which allowed them to stay in the game. I place a bit more emphasis here...

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Thanks.

I've been spending the morning combing through the site, pondering whether or not to subscribe once my guest pass expires. I already pay for The Athletic, where Dane Brugler just released his annual "the Beast" draft guide, which is great. I'm willing to pay for good journalism and quality content, and Miller certainly provides that.

In reading past Bills nuggets from Miller, I saw him say that he believes the Bills would be "all over" Elijah Moore if he fell to them. Thought that was interesting, too.

Oh, and @Reed83HOF : That was an excellent addition to this thread. Thank you!

Big fan of the RAS personally and Beane loves athleticism and intangibles(own up to your mistakes, ability to learn and retain info, leadership, etc). This covers the athleticism part.

 

Edit: also need to look at age (no old guys), we love underclassman, conference isn't a large concern, production is interesting though and it needs to be taken into context with what the player was being asked to do and the talent level (coaching and team mates) on his team, so tape needs to be taken in context. 

Edited April 14, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

Beane always says that playoff losses show you where you're lacking. Our loss to the Chiefs showed us lacking in coverage and pass rush, sure....but don't tell me Beane didn't notice the elite speed and playmaking capability of the KC offense, too. 

I love this philosophy.  Playoffs are a direct test against the best.  When you fail, you see where they were better than you and you try to shore that up so that next year that won't be the reason.  Depending on situations (needs, availability, money) you can fix in-house, via trade, FA, or the draft.

2 years ago, we lost to Houston cause we lost our composure, and we settled for FGs instead of TDs.  So the fixes were leadership and experience along with improving the weapons on offense.
 

To me this year's loss to KC showed areas of concern on both sides of the ball.  Our D couldn't stop their playmakers and our O couldn't keep up (and again we lost composure in the process).  And the one thing this approach doesn't address, at least to the naked eye, is coaching.  How could the coaching be improved to alter the outcome?

[Pete]

I love it!  We have deepest team in NFL- give us play makers!  No matter a CB, Edge, RB, TE, S- get us some more play makers!

[Logic]

I'm still combing through old mocks and articles on Miller's website. 

As I was going through his "7 days, 7 rounds" series, I saw him make the following picks in the first three rounds for the Bills:

Round 1: RB Travis Etienne
Round 2: CB Eric Stokes
Round 3: WR Anthony Schwartz

I know that a running back in the first round upsets a lot of people around here, but for me? The idea of adding the speed and "instant offense" that Etienne and Schwartz would bring while ALSO still getting an athlete like Stokes at CB2? That would be a home run.

Also, the recent Cover 1 video showing the Bills moving to more of an outside zone running scheme has me wondering if they ARE, in fact, taking a long look at Etienne. Miller describes him as the ideal angle-busting, one-cut-and-go, outside zone runner, and compares him to Dalvin Cook. 

Anway....draft season is fun. 

[Reed83HOF]

 

 

 

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm still combing through old mocks and articles on Miller's website. 

As I was going through his "7 days, 7 rounds" series, I saw him make the following picks in the first three rounds for the Bills:

Round 1: RB Travis Etienne
Round 2: CB Eric Stokes
Round 3: WR Anthony Schwartz

I know that a running back in the first round upsets a lot of people around here, but for me? The idea of adding the speed and "instant offense" that Etienne and Schwartz would bring while ALSO still getting an athlete like Stokes at CB2? That would be a home run.

Also, the recent Cover 1 video showing the Bills moving to more of an outside zone running scheme has me wondering if they ARE, in fact, taking a long look at Etienne. Miller describes him as the ideal angle-busting, one-cut-and-go, outside zone runner, and compares him to Dalvin Cook. 

Anway....draft season is fun. 

Never heard of Schwartz until you mentioned him here. 6'1 and runs a 4.26? Sheesh. 

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

I love this philosophy.  Playoffs are a direct test against the best.  When you fail, you see where they were better than you and you try to shore that up so that next year that won't be the reason.  Depending on situations (needs, availability, money) you can fix in-house, via trade, FA, or the draft.

2 years ago, we lost to Houston cause we lost our composure, and we settled for FGs instead of TDs.  So the fixes were leadership and experience along with improving the weapons on offense.
 

To me this year's loss to KC showed areas of concern on both sides of the ball.  Our D couldn't stop their playmakers and our O couldn't keep up (and again we lost composure in the process).  And the one thing this approach doesn't address, at least to the naked eye, is coaching.  How could the coaching be improved to alter the outcome?

After being aggressive the entire season (and to start the AFCCG going for it on 4th down on our 1st possession) McD reverted back to his old tendencies, kicking FGs while the oppostion scores TD after TD.  Coaching not to lose as opposed to coaching to win the game.  
 

the afccg showed me that we need a better CB2.  McD was coaching scared on D.  Almost as if he had zero confidence in the players in coverage.  We didn’t have a defender in position to stop one pass the entire game. That was the worst defensive performance we had all year and it looked like (to me) that McD was worried about getting beat overtop on every play.