TBBills Posted April 16, 2021 Posted April 16, 2021 I said in another thread they will probably be moving up. Beane has said in the past that it will be hard to make the roster which is why moving up for a sure starter is the ideal thing for this team.
just1hugheser Posted April 17, 2021 Posted April 17, 2021 I've been thinking about this and to me it looks like the best option for this would be the vikings at 14, gets us ahead of the Pats who have similar needs and its just nice to be in front them in anything, also at 14 you are guaranteed to get one of the 15-20 who legit have 1st round grades, whether its a Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn or if they like Paye or Phillips. I just don't know if I'm ready to give up what it'll take to get there. 1
ColoradoBills Posted April 17, 2021 Posted April 17, 2021 14 hours ago, just1hugheser said: I've been thinking about this and to me it looks like the best option for this would be the vikings at 14, gets us ahead of the Pats who have similar needs and its just nice to be in front them in anything, also at 14 you are guaranteed to get one of the 15-20 who legit have 1st round grades, whether its a Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn or if they like Paye or Phillips. I just don't know if I'm ready to give up what it'll take to get there. Beane would have to trade #30, #61 and #93 at a minimum to move up to #14. That's from both Draft Value charts. I for one would hate that gamble. As for a trade with the Vikings, they got 2-3rds, 4-4ths and 2-5ths right now. If anything I could see them using some of that to move up to get an impact player of their own.
just1hugheser Posted April 17, 2021 Posted April 17, 2021 I agree Colorado its a long shot for sure, to me it just looked like the best spot to be guaranteed one of the top 'cant miss' players and sadly enough I really like the idea of getting ahead of the Pats lol. If I were the Vikings I'd be moving up for a QB if I had all that ammo, I'm just not a fan of Cousins at least not the way they use him. 1
Thurman#1 Posted April 18, 2021 Posted April 18, 2021 On 4/16/2021 at 8:21 AM, HardyBoy said: So I hear what you're saying, and especially in this draft there is a very good chance players are misscouted and legit talent drops a lot more than usual. That said, and let's say ceilings are all equal...say something like 50% of first round draft picks bust. Then let's say 5% of 5th or lower draft picks become starters, that's a 95% bust rate (let's exclude kickers and punters and such). Even if my numbers are off a bit, the point is, it takes a lot more late round picks to equal the value of a first round pick in terms of odds. Low in the first round, the cost in salary in my mind, where that player is real close to not being in the top 51 anyway would take a ton of later round picks to make me want to take the gamble. Also, you gotta think a lot of those players will need to develop, so even if you say something crazy like 50% of people taken in late rounds develop into a starter year 4 if you let them sit on your bench. You simply don't have enough roster spots to make it work. All that said, the answer really lies in between there, and includes factors such as specific position, upcoming years positional draft depths, free agent classes, salary value ranges by position, scheme both immediate and where you see the league evolvong, etc. It's not like you only have two choices, and those two are keep them on the roster or never see them again. Fans worry so much about how your 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders if you cut them, other teams will put them on the roster and while it happens, it's rare. If you can't fit them on the roster you can still generally put them on your practice squad and still develop them, particularly with the new rules. There are plenty of spots to make drafting and keeping seven guys work. More even. Practice squad spots are a legit option.
HardyBoy Posted April 19, 2021 Posted April 19, 2021 23 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: It's not like you only have two choices, and those two are keep them on the roster or never see them again. Fans worry so much about how your 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders if you cut them, other teams will put them on the roster and while it happens, it's rare. If you can't fit them on the roster you can still generally put them on your practice squad and still develop them, particularly with the new rules. There are plenty of spots to make drafting and keeping seven guys work. More even. Practice squad spots are a legit option. Absolutely, and likely the best approach is the vary the strategy based on the maturity of your development pipeline. In my example I said it takes a player 3 years to be fully developed. If you draft three developmental players a year, you will have 9 at any given time. Actually, theoretically that would work with the practice squad and bottom of the roster (with my constraint that you have to keep a developmental player for at least three years), but that prevents you from signing any developmental players as FA. My thought it likely goes in waves. One year you largely restock developmental players, then the next year focus on trading up and getting top 100 picks...and you do that all within the same draft as things unfold, it's just you need to be mindful and have a plan for both buckets, and have full faith the Bills FO most certainly does.
Thurman#1 Posted April 22, 2021 Posted April 22, 2021 On 4/19/2021 at 10:44 PM, HardyBoy said: Absolutely, and likely the best approach is the vary the strategy based on the maturity of your development pipeline. In my example I said it takes a player 3 years to be fully developed. If you draft three developmental players a year, you will have 9 at any given time. Actually, theoretically that would work with the practice squad and bottom of the roster (with my constraint that you have to keep a developmental player for at least three years), but that prevents you from signing any developmental players as FA. My thought it likely goes in waves. One year you largely restock developmental players, then the next year focus on trading up and getting top 100 picks...and you do that all within the same draft as things unfold, it's just you need to be mindful and have a plan for both buckets, and have full faith the Bills FO most certainly does. I don't think any teams do it that way, switching their emphasis that way year by year, and for good reason. First, the idea that everyone takes three years doesn't make any sense. Some do. Some don't. Some can be seen early as not what you want and dropped. The way this works it that you need to keep the pipeline filled all the time. Matt Milano was a 5th; did he take three years? Did it take us three years to decide on Vosean Joseph or Austin Proehl? More, while we're mostly set on starters and backups, there are a bunch of other guys needed for STs who need to be refreshed nearly every year. But the way to maximize your roster overall is to maximize the number of draft picks. The more chances you have the higher the chances of getting someone who overperforms. I do have a great deal of faith in the FO. They're extremely capable. But I think that the way they make the trade up or trade down or stay decision is based far more on what is available at the time each pick comes up than on any yearly strategy.
machine gun kelly Posted April 22, 2021 Posted April 22, 2021 On 4/16/2021 at 10:16 PM, just1hugheser said: I've been thinking about this and to me it looks like the best option for this would be the vikings at 14, gets us ahead of the Pats who have similar needs and its just nice to be in front them in anything, also at 14 you are guaranteed to get one of the 15-20 who legit have 1st round grades, whether its a Micah Parsons or Jaycee Horn or if they like Paye or Phillips. I just don't know if I'm ready to give up what it'll take to get there. As long as you want to give all 7 picks up as the draft value is 1091.2 pts for the entire draft for the Bills and pick 14 is 1100 pts so that means you probably want to also give up you’re 6th round pick next year. That’s 8 picks for one pick at 14. Do you really think Beane is going to consider that as an option?
just1hugheser Posted April 22, 2021 Posted April 22, 2021 (edited) 38 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said: As long as you want to give all 7 picks up as the draft value is 1091.2 pts for the entire draft for the Bills and pick 14 is 1100 pts so that means you probably want to also give up you’re 6th round pick next year. That’s 8 picks for one pick at 14. Do you really think Beane is going to consider that as an option? lol no I don't I also doubt that's how they would do the trade since our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are worth 1040, no point in throwing the 2 5ths, 6th, and 7th. But it doesn't matter since I wasn't really serious about the trade or that it was even possible in the first place. Of course that all goes back to the point of the thread, if your roster/team is solid you theoretically don't need so many draft picks, so do you want to combine a bunch from this year and next year to make sure you get that player you know is gonna be a stud? Edited April 22, 2021 by just1hugheser
machine gun kelly Posted April 22, 2021 Posted April 22, 2021 Correct, but that doesn’t mean you trade up in the first which is the most costly. If Beane ends up with targeting 4-5 guys, then it’s more likely if he trades up at all it will be in the mid rounds. Those are more likely scenarios like when he traded up for Knox.
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