TSW Poll Mock Draft 2.0 - Who should the Bills take at #30 (Based off Mock 2.0 Results.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

He wasn’t going to win in the last 30 min 

fair enough. I had him selected but before I hit submit I went to check I wasn’t crazy. He’s in the top 15 most mocks since the end of the season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

Absolutely.  A 6’3 burner with great catch radius.  Was the #1 wr coming out of HS. Tremendous talent

 

and he’s the late great Joe Delaneys Nephew 

 

 

There are a lot of counterfeit football players in this draft............you can tell a mediocre draft by the amount of bad tape/low producing guys with big track times and measurements that are getting mocked in the first two rounds.  Marshall isn't one of those guys.   He may end up between good and great.........but he's a high floor and high ceiling player who would give the Bills another dimension in the pass game.   X, Y, Z........he can play them all........he has the size and real, legit speed.......and he's a physical blocker.   @DCOrange mentioned Toney perhaps replacing Beasley.........as Allen matures they may decide they want to go big slot.......call it 11.5 personnel.

[NeverOutNick]

Didn’t want to do it but had to change my vote from Collins to Ossai just so we didn’t go RB

[Virgil]

Joseph Ossai Edge, Texas Is the Bills pick

[ExWNYer]

7 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Didn’t want to do it but had to change my vote from Collins to Ossai just so we didn’t go RB

 

That's what I did, as well. I had originally selected Terrace Marshall but he wasn't going to sniff the finish line and then was removed. I selected Ossai as the 'anti-Etienne' but I threw up a little in my mouth afterwards.

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Didn’t want to do it but had to change my vote from Collins to Ossai just so we didn’t go RB

I ultimately did the same. I'd be happy with Ossai anyways so wasn't really a problem for me but he wasn't my top choice.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There are a lot of counterfeit football players in this draft............you can tell a mediocre draft by the amount of bad tape/low producing guys with big track times and measurements that are getting mocked in the first two rounds.  Marshall isn't one of those guys.   He may end up between good and great.........but he's a high floor and high ceiling player who would give the Bills another dimension in the pass game.   X, Y, Z........he can play them all........he has the size and real, legit speed.......and he's a physical blocker.   @DCOrange mentioned Toney perhaps replacing Beasley.........as Allen matures they may decide they want to go big slot.......call it 11.5 personnel.

 

Mediocre draft is exactly how I'd describe this draft. The top 4 QBs are decent prospects IMO, and the OT class is really good. After that... I'm struggling a bit more. Don't love corner after the top 4 guys. Receiver is deep but isn't as top end heavy as last year. Edge has lots of guys but that is kinda what they are.... guys. If the QBs hit the draft will be considered a good one, if they don't think this will be considered a weaker group. 

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Mediocre draft is exactly how I'd describe this draft. The top 4 QBs are decent prospects IMO, and the OT class is really good. After that... I'm struggling a bit more. Don't love corner after the top 4 guys. Receiver is deep but isn't as top end heavy as last year. Edge has lots of guys but that is kinda what they are.... guys. If the QBs hit the draft will be considered a good one, if they don't think this will be considered a weaker group. 

Honestly think the QBs are a little overrated for the most part too. Lawrence is an incredible prospect but Fields is my #2 and I have him a hair behind Josh Allen's pre-draft grade (who was my #3 that year behind Lamar and Darnold).

[GunnerBill]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Honestly think the QBs are a little overrated for the most part too. Lawrence is an incredible prospect but Fields is my #2 and I have him a hair behind Josh Allen's pre-draft grade (who was my #3 that year behind Lamar and Darnold).

 

I'd rather not revisit my 2018 QB grades but that was a good class as well even if I had them in almost entirely the wrong order (I had Baker QB3 and I think so far he probably is QB3 but beyond that...) I think this is also a good group. If I was a team in the top 10 needing a Quarterback I'd take one of these guys. Especially looking ahead at who might come out next year. 

[Einstein's Dog]

17 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I really can't imagine them going WR, can you?  Diggs and Davis aren't going anywhere, even if Beasley leaves after next season, I can't imagine a #3/4 receiver with our 1st round pick

I could.  If bpa in their minds.  The WR position is expensive.  Even if the player moves into a secondary starting role - either Beas or Sanders.  Thats a $6 million plus worry free piece for multiple years - and a possible 5th year value extension.  Also secures some continuity for Josh.

 

Economically, it makes a lot of sense to go WR.  The WR only needs to become top three on your team and you won't have struck out (unlike RB, where you can pick up a vet like Breida/Bell/Fourtaine for 2-3 mill).

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd rather not revisit my 2018 QB grades but that was a good class as well even if I had them in almost entirely the wrong order (I had Baker QB3 and I think so far he probably is QB3 but beyond that...) I think this is also a good group. If I was a team in the top 10 needing a Quarterback I'd take one of these guys. Especially looking ahead at who might come out next year. 

I think it's a good group too, but I don't think Wilson and Fields are anywhere near Lawrence like some people say. For me, it's more on par with most of the recent draft classes. I haven't finished grading the Day 2-3 targets yet, but looking back at my grades since the Mahomes draft, I have the following with 1st round grades (2021 class bolded):

 

96 – Trevor Lawrence

94 – Patrick Mahomes

93 – Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow

92 – Tua Tagovailoa

91 – Sam Darnold

88 – Josh Allen/Drew Lock

87 – Baker Mayfield/Deshaun Watson/Justin Fields

86 – Daniel Jones/Jordan Love/Trey Lance

85 – Mitch Trubisky

84 – Josh Rosen/Zach Wilson

81 – Dwayne Haskins/Jacob Eason

80 – Justin Herbert

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

I think it's a good group too, but I don't think Wilson and Fields are anywhere near Lawrence like some people say. For me, it's more on par with most of the recent draft classes. I haven't finished grading the Day 2-3 targets yet, but looking back at my grades since the Mahomes draft, I have the following with 1st round grades (2021 class bolded):

 

96 – Trevor Lawrence

94 – Patrick Mahomes

93 – Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow

92 – Tua Tagovailoa

91 – Sam Darnold

88 – Josh Allen/Drew Lock

87 – Baker Mayfield/Deshaun Watson/Justin Fields

86 – Daniel Jones/Jordan Love/Trey Lance

85 – Mitch Trubisky

84 – Josh Rosen/Zach Wilson

81 – Dwayne Haskins/Jacob Eason

80 – Justin Herbert

 

So I have all 4 of these guys above where I had Tua (who was my 2nd and last first round grade at QB last year) though only Lawrence above where I had Burrow. There is a clear cut #1 for me too in Lawrence. 

 

The previous year I only had Kyler Murray with a 1st (and he was a very late first). Wasn't sold on Haskins and didn't like Lock or Jones. Then we get to '18 where my three firsts were Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order. Rosen was in Joe Burrow territory. I actually have Fields graded very close to Watson (we are similar there) and I had Darnold in that same range. 

[DrDawkinstein]

30 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Honestly think the QBs are a little overrated for the most part too. Lawrence is an incredible prospect but Fields is my #2 and I have him a hair behind Josh Allen's pre-draft grade (who was my #3 that year behind Lamar and Darnold).

 

They always are.

 

We're expecting at least 4-5 QBs to be picked in the 1st round. Even in 2018 with "The Greatest QB Class of a Generation" they didnt all hit. Only 2-3 have turned into Franchise QBs. I expect at least 3 busts from this class.

[mannc]

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think it's a good group too, but I don't think Wilson and Fields are anywhere near Lawrence like some people say. For me, it's more on par with most of the recent draft classes. I haven't finished grading the Day 2-3 targets yet, but looking back at my grades since the Mahomes draft, I have the following with 1st round grades (2021 class bolded):

 

96 – Trevor Lawrence

94 – Patrick Mahomes

93 – Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow

92 – Tua Tagovailoa

91 – Sam Darnold

88 – Josh Allen/Drew Lock

87 – Baker Mayfield/Deshaun Watson/Justin Fields

86 – Daniel Jones/Jordan Love/Trey Lance

85 – Mitch Trubisky

84 – Josh Rosen/Zach Wilson

81 – Dwayne Haskins/Jacob Eason

80 – Justin Herbert

Don't get me wrong, but these draft grades don't exactly inspire confidence in your rankings of the 2021 prospects.  I'm not picking on you; this list seems to be consistent with most experts' lists over the same time period.  It just shows that not many "experts" are actually very good at projecting which college QBs are going to be good in the pros.  It's also why I disregard people who say that guys like Zach Wilson and Mac Jones don't deserve to go in the top three.  I actually just heard Greg Cosell call Mac Jones a "bad athlete" 😄.   

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, mannc said:

Don't get me wrong, but these draft grades don't exactly inspire confidence in your rankings of the 2021 prospects.  I'm not picking on you; this list seems to be consistent with most experts' lists over the same time period.  It just shows that not many "experts" are actually very good at projecting which college QBs are going to be good in the pros.  It's also why I disregard people who say that guys like Zach Wilson and Mac Jones don't deserve to go in the top three.  I actually just heard Greg Cosell call Mac Jones a "bad athlete" 😄.   

No offense taken. At the end of the day, it's just something I do for fun and there's so much that goes into whether or not a prospect pans out that you can never know when grading guys, especially if you're just a random person like me that doesn't have connections to all the coaches and whatnot. I'm pretty happy with my track record so far. I was a lot higher on Mahomes and Lamar than most people and lower on Rosen and Haskins than most. The Herbert and Darnold grades are definitely trending in the wrong direction for me though haha.

 

Some grades will always look bad though; high potential guys that never reached their potential or high floor guys that are technically high floor but also replaceable players. So for example, the 85-89 range means I think they'll be a starter but either have a relatively low ceiling (like Daniel Jones, who I thought would likely be a low-end starter which is precisely what he's been) or a low chance of reaching their ceiling (like Drew Lock, who I said would likely be a Nick Foles caliber player, which is basically what he's been outside of the one fluke year Foles had with Philly, but that Lock had the potential to develop into a very good starter, which he has failed to do).

 

Re: Mac, he's a fine athlete. People have made a way bigger deal out of that locker room picture than they should have; he can move, he just chooses not to. I think he's overrated as a passer though. There's times where he moves the defense with his eyes and throws a WR open that really stand out for a college player, but people have a tendency to see productive passers that don't have great arms and assume they have elite accuracy and that just isn't the case with Mac. He's certainly a lot more accurate than Trey Lance by comparison, but his accuracy is just pretty good. I have a 3rd round grade on Mac personally. I don't doubt Kyle Shanahan's ability to build a productive offense around him if that's ultimately their pick but I think he has a pretty low ceiling and I don't really view him as a high floor guy either.

Edited April 14, 2021 by DCOrange

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Mediocre draft is exactly how I'd describe this draft. The top 4 QBs are decent prospects IMO, and the OT class is really good. After that... I'm struggling a bit more. Don't love corner after the top 4 guys. Receiver is deep but isn't as top end heavy as last year. Edge has lots of guys but that is kinda what they are.... guys. If the QBs hit the draft will be considered a good one, if they don't think this will be considered a weaker group. 

I think the corners are okay after the top 4, I'm just looking at zone as a base since that is what we play. Good Man to Man guys are scooped up way to fast. I find a bit better value here than at Edge, which I just don't like much at all (besides Phillips who is medically off my board), I do kinda like Paye, but he won't fall down low enough for us .

 

I agree it's a nice OT class and there is some real good value where we pick, it's almost a shame we don't have that as a need, but I would not be surprised if Beane goes there RD1, can never have enough. The talent and value there may be too good to pass up.

[DJB]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

I should’ve said something earlier, but Terrace Marshall really should be on this list. I think he’s be a likely target looking at the WRs available 

 

Loved Marshall for months. Have had him in my top 5 for a long time. 

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

Loved Marshall for months. Have had him in my top 5 for a long time. 

I really think he or Elijah Moore will be the pick

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

Absolutely.  A 6’3 burner with great catch radius.  Was the #1 wr coming out of HS. Tremendous talent

 

and he’s the late great Joe Delaneys Nephew 

With the physicality to win off the line. Something Smoke was deficient at. If not Zaven, I'm all in for Marshall

[hjnick]

Well, at least the pick wasn't a RB.

 

Ossai... ugh... Texas players are SOOO overrated.