TSW Poll Mock Draft 2.0 - Who should the Bills take at #30 (Based off Mock 2.0 Results.

[Reed83HOF]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Yeah, if these are the options, I hope they either trade back or up.  Not a big fan of the value here

I know the answer, but has Beane ever traded back?

2 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Still missing Asante Samuel or did he get picked?

We have met with him twice and his ol man played for Sean, everyone should become a bit more comfy with him as a possiblity (not implying at 30 though)

[Reed83HOF]

I also think this guy is high on our DB lost
 

 

 

I think this may be our pick at 30, Asante is the choice in RD2 if Melifonwu is gone

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I also think this guy is high on our DB lost
 

 

 

I think this may be our pick at 30, Asante is the choice in RD2 if Melifonwu is gone

I like the player, but at 30?...not so fast:
 

 

[Reed83HOF]

29 minutes ago, Logic said:

I like the player, but at 30?...not so fast:
 

 

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[Logic]

48 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

Im actually with you on all those points.

I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

[whatdrought]

50 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

 

Trade back and draft him in the second!

Just now, Logic said:

Im actually with you on all those points.

I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

 

Hard to put much stock in this kind of things these days. 

Edited April 14, 2021 by whatdrought

[Reed83HOF]

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

Im actually with you on all those points.

I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

@Astrobot has him on 2 of his latest mocks.

 

Every year there are players who mocks had low that go way higher and those mocked high that fall. Mocks aren't that accurate overall anyways. I could be totally wrong and I may be pigeon holing players to us, by what Beane has looked for in the past, but he fits parts of it and it is a need for us. I'm certainly not saying we will take him, but his profile checks a lot of boxes and who we take will be dependent on who falls and if we decide to stay put or move up. Late RD1 picks are just so much different than picks 5-18. I like the depth at CB after the top 3 much more than the Edge and would rate them higher. RB is a wildcard though. I honestly have no idea what we will do, but hell I would take Etienne and move up in RD2 for the CB

11 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Trade back and draft him in the second!

 

Hard to put much stock in this kind of things these days. 

Beane has never traded back and I don't see him doing it now. He is either going up or staying put. To go up it is going to have to be a top tier guy who slid into a palatable spot to trade up (only picks from this draft and I don't see us giving up a RD2 this year, the rest are fair game).

 

Not trying to be a turd...just some thoughts

 

I don't put much stock in what is being said about players right now...

Edited April 14, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[Virgil]

9 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

@Astrobot has him on 2 of his latest mocks.

 

Every year there are players who mocks had low that go way higher and those mocked high that fall. Mocks aren't that accurate overall anyways. I could be totally wrong and I may be pigeon holing players to us, by what Beane has looked for in the past, but he fits parts of it and it is a need for us. I'm certainly not saying we will take him, but his profile checks a lot of boxes and who we take will be dependent on who falls and if we decide to stay put or move up. Late RD1 picks are just so much different than picks 5-18. I like the depth at CB after the top 3 much more than the Edge and would rate them higher. RB is a wildcard though. I honestly have no idea what we will do, but hell I would take Etienne and move up in RD2 for the CB

Beane has never traded back and I don't see him doing it now. He is either going up or staying put. To go up it is going to have to be a top tier guy who slid into a palatable spot to trade up (only picks from this draft and I don't see us giving up a RD2 this year, the rest are fair game).

 

Not trying to be a turd...just some thoughts

 

I don't put much stock in what is being said about players right now...

 

I think one of the top tier guys will fall past 20 and Beane will gladly give up a 3rd to trade up to get him.  I just have no idea who that will be

 

 

I've narrowed the selection to the top 5

Edited April 14, 2021 by Virgil

[NewEra]

Just because Beane hasn’t trade down doesn’t mean that he never will..... he hasn’t been the GM very long. I don’t think his chess moves are set in stone after 3 drafts 

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I think one of the top tier guys will fall past 20 and Beane will gladly give up a 3rd to trade up to get him.  I just have no idea who that will be

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Just because Beane hasn’t trade down doesn’t mean that he never will..... he hasn’t been the GM very long. I don’t think his chess moves are set in stone after 3 drafts 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...

[NeverOutNick]

Let me know when I should give up on Collins and move to Ossai...no way do I believe we go RB 

[scuba guy]

48 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Trade back and draft him in the second!

 

Hard to put much stock in this kind of things these days. 

Do you know if there have been bills scout's at any of his games/bb?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...

We have plenty of long term holes. PLENTY.   Beyond 2021, who do we have at cb2, TE1, C, LG, RG, 1T, DE1, DE2, WR3

 

Is Morse a core player?

feliciano?

Ford?

Boettger?

Star?

Addison? 
Jerry?

Butler?

Phillips?

Bam?

Zimmer?

Levi?

Dane?

Knox?

Motor? 

 

Beane is thinking long term sustainability.  That’s obvious after watching this offseason.  He’s not going all in.  Josh hasn’t been paid and we’re up against the cap.  When you pay your QB 40M a year, a Gms best friends are is his draft picks that start and get paid 1M a year for 4 years.  That’s what we need going forward.  Maybe not in 2021 so much, but for the foundation of the teams future super bowl runs.  These picks are the most important.  I’d love to add an elite player..,.but which elite player are we going to trade up for and how many potential future starters are we going to trade for that player?  And is that “elite player” going to run into 17 or 49?  If we trade multiple picks for a guy that pans out like 49, we may very well screw this whole thing up

Edited April 14, 2021 by NewEra

[Doc Brown]

I get the thinking with drafting an explosive RB stud at 30 as long as you're convinced he'll be a significant upgrade.  You can then milk that player for all he's worth for five years with an average annual salary that makes him a bargain.  You have to then be willing to release him no matter what though.  I don't think Beane will do it but I wouldn't hate it if he did.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...

Maybe another pick in the top 100 and a chance to fill in the 93 to 161 gap that lacking a 4th round pick creates.  I can't see the Bills war room sitting on their collective butts and 67 players are taken while they watch without a chance to snag one of the guys they targeted.

[JESSEFEFFER]

One bias that tends to exist in the mock drafts done in the TBD bubble is our members tend to take players that we have collectively liked/hoped for the Bills to draft.  One or more of the edge defenders or CBs off the board in this mock is likely to still be there at 30 when the real thing goes down, imo.

[78thealltimegreat]

11 hours ago, Virgil said:

Please vote for you think the Bills should select at #30 overall.  If there is a player you think should be considered that's not in the poll, please post in the responses.  As we get more votes, I will remove players who were far behind.  You can re-vote at any time

 

Based off this current mock draft:

 

Mr Harris at Bama has been my guy for months but I doubt he’s there so Id go with the Texas DE insane athlete with major upside 

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Let me know when I should give up on Collins and move to Ossai...no way do I believe we go RB 

 

I already switched to Ossai - no way should we waste a 5th year option on RB.  Better Etienne than Harris, but only by a smidge.  Both would be wastes to me.

[JMF2006]

I voted for the RB as its the thinnest position.

 

I am pretty sure that the DE listed is the monster athlete who didn't record a sack last year in 7 starts.

 

A first round tackle that doesn't start? you draft depth later.

 

I Don't know much about the LB I need to do some research

[whatdrought]

@Reed83HOF- I think you’re falsely equating trading back with drafting more players. I don’t think that’s the case at all for where the bills are.

 

Trading back out of the first gives you flexibility in the 2-4 rounds to move up and around and get several players you like. If they don’t have anyone they love in round 1, you could flip that for a 2 and 4, or even 2 and 3 and then use your later picks to move around those rounds to get 4-6 top 150 picks that you see as solid depth and developmental pieces.

 

While I agree that you there isn’t much room on this roster for late round depth; I think the best idea is to leverage for mid-round talent to build depth and create competition while giving you options for the future.
 

I don’t know how likely that is, but I think it’s a viable route and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it. i also don’t think the “he’s never traded back” logic makes sense. We’re talking about 3 drafts that Beane has run. Hardly a huge sample size, and he’s never had a roster so stacked. The world is his oyster right now and he truly can let the draft come to him, so I’m not holding my breath about any option.