machine gun kelly Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said: Lol I think it rolls off the tongue nicely when you say it 😂 Yeah if you’re C3PO, R2D2, or Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory. Just join my friend. I do love you’re chart and have referenced to others. 1
NewEra Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 15 hours ago, Rigotz said: Hey man, I really appreciate the time and effort you put into this ... but Football Outsiders did the same analysis and improved it by adjusting for total # of draft picks and draft position, which was sorely needed: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019 In 2019 the Bills were #7 in total draft return. After adjusting for draft position (they shouldn't be credited for losing), they were #10. In 2018 the Bills were #4 in total draft return. After adjusting for draft position, they were #11. In 2017 the Bills were #2 in total draft return. After adjusting for draft position, they were #2. So you're right that they were VERY GOOD. I agree that they were very good, per my first post. The drafts also don't pass the eyeball test for me... regardless of what numbers stat geeks are putting on them. Name one player we drafted in 2019 who has looked elite. Outside of Josh Allen, name one player drafted in 2018 who is considered elite... Tremaine Edmunds (#16 overall)? Yes, VERY GOOD Front Office staff overall, but I'm not ready to say the best in the entire league. You need “elite” players to have a good draft? That’s nonsense 1
JGMcD2 Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: He was mocked in the 1st round because he was felt to be a 1st round pick. The Bills were one of at least 4 teams clearly looking for a QB in the 1st. Allen was clearly considered one of the top 4 QBs. "Polarizing" would mean that lots of people felt he was not a top 4 QB or should not go in the 1st round. Mayfield and Darnold were gone. B/R at the time: (Matt Miller, sending him to Miami) "The Pick: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming Disclaimer: I do not expect Josh Allen to last this long on Thursday night. In fact, he could be the first pick in the entire draft. But right now, with no trades, this is what could happen. I would expect Buffalo to move heaven and Earth to try and get him should a slide like this happen." With Darnold and Mayfield gone, it was down to the 2 Joshes. Rosen was considered a great passer, but not a great athlete and his behavioral issues (including not being liked by coaches) were a red flag. Compared to Rosen, Allen was an easy choice for the BIlls, despite the "boom or bust" narrative. You’re behaving as if I said he was a surprise first round pick. That’s not what I’m saying... but that’s what you’re describing. I said he was a polarizing prospect. Polarizing and surprise pick are two different things. I don’t think we’re in disagreement with the fact that he was talented and going to go high in the draft. Although some felt he shouldn’t be a first round pick or that he was only a projected 1st round pick because teams were desperate for QBs. He can still be polarizing despite that. There were a variety of outcomes that people predicted for Josh Allen... when I say polarizing I don’t mean the pick was out of left field... I mean he was a polarizing prospect that many pegged to be a bust. Plenty of anonymous scouts discussed how polarizing he was because the performance didn’t match the tools. That’s what all of those articles were... I didn’t write them myself lol Edited April 13, 2021 by JGMcD2 2
Boxcar Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: He was mocked in the 1st round because he was felt to be a 1st round pick. The Bills were one of at least 4 teams clearly looking for a QB in the 1st. Allen was clearly considered one of the top 4 QBs. "Polarizing" would mean that lots of people felt he was not a top 4 QB or should not go in the 1st round. Mayfield and Darnold were gone. B/R at the time: (Matt Miller, sending him to Miami) "The Pick: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming Disclaimer: I do not expect Josh Allen to last this long on Thursday night. In fact, he could be the first pick in the entire draft. But right now, with no trades, this is what could happen. I would expect Buffalo to move heaven and Earth to try and get him should a slide like this happen." With Darnold and Mayfield gone, it was down to the 2 Joshes. Rosen was considered a great passer, but not a great athlete and his behavioral issues (including not being liked by coaches) were a red flag. Compared to Rosen, Allen was an easy choice for the BIlls, despite the "boom or bust" narrative. Daniel Jones is a way better example of a polarizing pick. Or maybe not, since there weren't too many on the "this makes sense" side. 1
JGMcD2 Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Boxcar said: Daniel Jones is a way better example of a polarizing pick. Or maybe not, since there weren't too many on the "this makes sense" side. I didn’t say polarizing pick. I said polarizing prospect. Two totally different things. 1
Boxcar Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: I didn’t say polarizing pick. I said polarizing prospect. Two totally different things. True, my bad.
OrtonHearsaWho Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 21 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: C’mon, Man! Ya gotta put more quotes in when creating a topic of The Athletic. It’s a pay service! Not everybody is willing to fork out cash monthly for a couple worthy articles. The way this reads, doesn’t rate the space it takes up. jmo 🤦♂️ I might be in the minority, but I think the Athletic is actually one of the better pay sites around and it's pretty cheap. Lots of the TBD crew don't seem to like their Bills writers but they put out very well researched & written articles pretty regularly. WAY better than what ESPN puts out for less $$$.. 1 2 1
Mr. WEO Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said: You’re behaving as if I said he was a surprise first round pick. That’s not what I’m saying... but that’s what you’re describing. I said he was a polarizing prospect. Polarizing and surprise pick are two different things. I don’t think we’re in disagreement with the fact that he was talented and going to go high in the draft. Although some felt he shouldn’t be a first round pick or that he was only a projected 1st round pick because teams were desperate for QBs. He can still be polarizing despite that. There were a variety of outcomes that people predicted for Josh Allen... when I say polarizing I don’t mean the pick was out of left field... I mean he was a polarizing prospect that many pegged to be a bust. Plenty of anonymous scouts discussed how polarizing he was because the performance didn’t match the tools. That’s what all of those articles were... I didn’t write them myself lol You said this: "They took a risk on one of the most polarizing prospects in the history of the sport... and got it right" None of that is accurate. He picked the guy who was the best QB available---a guy who many (and tons of posters right here on TSW) felt was the obvious choice. It wasn't a huge risk to pick a guy who Multiple mocks had going to the Bills (and at least one said he could go 1st overall in the draft). Sure, there were some, based on his college and low volume of product to evaluate, felt he had "bust" potential, but that hardly makes him a "polarizing prospect" as most concluded he was going in the first. And the "in the history of the sport" claim is completely off the wall... 1
Kwai San Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 21 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: I mean it’s not made up... talked about pretty often. Gaine, Boyd, Schoen, Morgan and Lake Dawson were the ones I was referring to. Gray is another one. I wasn't saying it was made up - I just wondered who they were - thanks for the info!!!
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted April 13, 2021 Author Posted April 13, 2021 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If only the drought ended at 14..... it was 17! EDIT: As for the rest of your post I suppose it depends what you define as "front office." I like this front office, there are some very talented people in it and Brandon Beane has done a very good job. And yet, I still contend that the person who is the biggest single reason for the transformation in culture and expectations for the Bills is Sean McDermott. Maybe you were meaning to include him in your reference to front office some people see the HC as part of that definition, others don't. FO should include the HC imo. Win a SB (this season) and keep competing for it and this story would 1. close that chapter (BILLS) 2. prove the article correct 2
Mango Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If only the drought ended at 14..... it was 17! EDIT: As for the rest of your post I suppose it depends what you define as "front office." I like this front office, there are some very talented people in it and Brandon Beane has done a very good job. And yet, I still contend that the person who is the biggest single reason for the transformation in culture and expectations for the Bills is Sean McDermott. Maybe you were meaning to include him in your reference to front office some people see the HC as part of that definition, others don't. I agree fully with your edited comment. I like the FO. McD seems to be the big player in all of this. 2 hours ago, NewEra said: You need “elite” players to have a good draft? That’s nonsense I addressed some concern over "misses" earlier as a negative and a positive (their ability and willingness to go back and fix). But yes, they have to hit the draft a bit better to get more value out of cheaper contracts. Again, I like our FO. I think they are one of the better FO's in the league. I think they belong in the conversation of best, but I am not ready to crown them King just yet. Looking at the pay roll and their spending based on position groups in 2020/2021 2020/2021 No. 1/No. 3 in Defensive spending- Not good return for a team that has spent both a ton of money and a first round/first selection in every draft for 3 years now. No. 5/No. 14 in Offensive spending- I am fine with this. Surely it will go up once Allen signs on the dotted line. No 2./No. 7 in WR spending- Worth it at the moment. It is a great group. No 3./No. 10 in OL spending- I am OK with this because I think RB is a bigger problem with the run game rather than OL. But if you think it is a blocking problem, this is very much an over spend. No. 1/No. 5 in DL spending- Woof. No 15/No. 10 in LB spending- About right for production in 2020. But the 2021 spending seems high. It will go up a ton with an Edmunds extension. No. 2/No. 16 in DB spending- I like our core 3 here in Tre, Poyer, and Hyde. Our scouts and GM also inherited a quality top tier but have struggled to fill CB2 reliably. 16th is now on the cheap end for the return on production. We have over allocated to some position groups, especially on defense, without great return. You could call this a bit of a FA bungle. But if you drafted more high impact players, we would be allocating resources much more efficiently. I think it boils down to lack of impact from our top 100 defensive picks and whiffing on some FA signings. They go hand in hand. Sources: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/offense/ 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 1 hour ago, OrtonHearsaWho said: I might be in the minority, but I think the Athletic is actually one of the better pay sites around and it's pretty cheap. Lots of the TBD crew don't seem to like their Bills writers but they put out very well researched & written articles pretty regularly. WAY better than what ESPN puts out for less $$$.. Until recently they were running a special I think $1 and they still have 7 day free trial. During the season, I read 2-3 articles there every week. Maybe once a month I also find value in TBN Blitz coverage If I 100% agreed with everything all the time, it would be a pretty strong sign there was not diversity of opinion 2
JGMcD2 Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: You said this: "They took a risk on one of the most polarizing prospects in the history of the sport... and got it right" None of that is accurate. He picked the guy who was the best QB available---a guy who many (and tons of posters right here on TSW) felt was the obvious choice. It wasn't a huge risk to pick a guy who Multiple mocks had going to the Bills (and at least one said he could go 1st overall in the draft). Sure, there were some, based on his college and low volume of product to evaluate, felt he had "bust" potential, but that hardly makes him a "polarizing prospect" as most concluded he was going in the first. And the "in the history of the sport" claim is completely off the wall... Dude... what are you talking about? Just because people said he was a first round pick doesn’t mean that the prospect is not polarizing... The pick can be expected and the prospect can still be polarizing... I am not talking about if the pick was expected or not... I’m talking about the decision to pick a prospect that had a wide variance of outcomes and assessing everything properly. If my claim is off the way... cite some actual evidence to support the contrary. I’ve already cited enough supporting my claim. Edited April 13, 2021 by JGMcD2
Milanos Milano Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: I wouldn’t pay a buck a month for the Buffalo Snooze, so I’m not paying anything for other sports print. btw, yer mudder wears Army boots. Which is fine, if you don’t think it’s worthy then don’t pay for the subscription. At the same time don’t ask for said articles without paying for them. People just want everything for free without paying for it. That’s not how the world works, people need to get paid for the services/products they make.
Mr. WEO Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Dude... what are you talking about? Just because people said he was a first round pick doesn’t mean that the prospect is not polarizing... The pick can be expected and the prospect can still be polarizing... I am not talking about if the pick was expected or not... I’m talking about the decision to pick a prospect that had a wide variance of outcomes and assessing everything properly. If my claim is off the way... cite some actual evidence to support the contrary. I’ve already cited enough supporting my claim. Polarizing suggests that many thought he was not worthy of a 1st round pick or would be overdrafted. That wasn't the case. People weren't only at the opposite side of boom or bust. The consensus was that he would be well drafted in the 1st. Outlying opinions do not make him "the most polarizing prostect in the history of the sport", unless you are re-defining the word "polarizing".
JGMcD2 Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Polarizing suggests that many thought he was not worthy of a 1st round pick or would be overdrafted. That wasn't the case. People weren't only at the opposite side of boom or bust. The consensus was that he would be well drafted in the 1st. Outlying opinions do not make him "the most polarizing prostect in the history of the sport", unless you are re-defining the word "polarizing". If I had said it was the most polarizing pick, then yes, it would suggest he was not worthy of a first round pick. I did not say that... I don’t know why you keep implying that’s what I said. I didn’t say anything about him being a polarizing pick. I said he was the most polarizing prospect. He can be a polarizing prospect and not a polarizing pick. Here’s the definition I’m using: to break up into opposing factions or grouping. Did evaluations of Josh Allen not cause that to occur and very often? I literally threw you 4 different articles where I googled Josh Allen and polarizing and they came up from 4 different authors... there were plenty more... I guess those were all outlying opinions too... Since you likely didn’t even open those links... Allen has emerged as the most polarizing prospect in the 2018 draft class. On the same day that ESPN’s Mel Kiper slotted Allen as his top overall pick in a mock draft, Pro Football Focus’s Steve Palazzolo didn’t even project Allen being taken in the first round. Allen is either a strong-armed, mobile gunslinger with all the potential in the world, or a mediocre, inaccurate passer who won’t be able to overcome his drawbacks. It just depends on which draftnik you ask and this... Allen’s ability to play quarterback has been a point of contention in football circles for years. Heading into that draft, analysts were divided into two camps. The first was obsessed with his tools and salivated over the prospect with the prototype build and the cannon arm. The second was horrified by his statistics and couldn’t look past Allen’s underwhelming college numbers. The tools camp saw an athletic marvel unlike any other; the stats camp saw a QB who barely managed competency against subpar Mountain West competition. Then Allen reached the pros, and the divide somehow got starker. The Bills went 10-6 and made the playoffs in Allen’s second season thanks largely to one of the league’s best defenses, but statistically Allen appeared to be one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks. The pro-Allen camp credited Allen for the Bills’ successes; the anti-Allen camp argued he was holding the team back, and that Buffalo would be a Super Bowl contender if it merely had an average quarterback. or this... Prospects are too often depicted as "polarizing," yet that label seems apt for Allen given the gulf between his backers and skeptics. maybe this...? Against Iowa and Oregon in 2017, Allen tried to do way too much too often to compensate for the large discrepancy in talent between both clubs. He looked undraftable in those contests. The rest of his film -- in games other clubs from the Mountain West and other small-school opponents -- isn't downright brutal does this make sense? No matter Allen’s John Elway-like arm, they said, his poor accuracy would doom him to a path more like that of Ravens draft misfire Kyle Boller. People didn’t say this...? That makes for a polarizing situation, as Allen is projected by some as the potential No. 1 overall draft pick and by others as a player who doesn’t deserve a Round 1 grade. Why you’re arguing this... I don’t know... Edited April 13, 2021 by JGMcD2 1
Mr. WEO Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 Just now, JGMcD2 said: If I had said it was the most polarizing pick, then yes, it would suggest he was not worthy of a first round pick. I did not say that... I don’t know why you keep implying that’s what I said. I didn’t say anything about him being a polarizing pick. I said he was the most polarizing prospect. He can be a polarizing prospect and not a polarizing pick. Here’s the definition I’m using: to break up into opposing factions or grouping. Did evaluations of Josh Allen not cause that to occur and very often? I literally threw you 4 different articles where I googled Josh Allen and polarizing and they came up from 4 different authors... there were plenty more... I guess those were all outlying opinions too... So he can be the most polarizing pick in the history of the sport....AND also be a consensus top 10 pick who might even go #1 ahead of 3 other surefire 1st round QBs? Look, as a prospect, he was 1st round USDA quality as judged--even if there were some who felt he could bust (how many QB prospects "in the history of the sport" has that NOT been said about in the 1st round??). And by your definition, Josh wasn't even the "most polarizing QB prospect"...... in the 2018 draft! That title clearly went to Mayfield. The love/hate for that guy was significant. Also, on draft day, every pick is still an NFL prospect, obviously, so no need to make that distinction.
JGMcD2 Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: So he can be the most polarizing pick in the history of the sport....AND also be a consensus top 10 pick who might even go #1 ahead of 3 other surefire 1st round QBs? Look, as a prospect, he was 1st round USDA quality as judged--even if there were some who felt he could bust (how many QB prospects "in the history of the sport" has that NOT been said about in the 1st round??). And by your definition, Josh wasn't even the "most polarizing QB prospect"...... in the 2018 draft! That title clearly went to Mayfield. The love/hate for that guy was significant. Also, on draft day, every pick is still an NFL prospect, obviously, so no need to make that distinction. Quote the rest of my post with all of the excerpts from the Ringer, CBS, The Baltimore Sun, USA Today... Edited April 13, 2021 by JGMcD2
Mr. WEO Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Quote the rest of my post with all of the excerpts from the Ringer, CBS, The Baltimore Sun, USA Today... The Baltimore Sun is a pay page. And it comments on the "polarizing" label years after the draft. I don't see one from predraft from the Sun in your list. The Ringer was before the Senior Bowl. A week after the article you cited, the Ringer published another, which included: "Stats Are for Losers: Josh Allen Hype Season Has Officially Arrived NFL evaluators are apparently in love with the extremely tall, rocket-armed, small-school QB prospect." Then the author dogs him again. The Ringer has spilled a lot of virtual ink since then---backtracking on why they thought so many predraft evaluators (who had Josh as high as the top pick) were wrong. Oops! The Buffalodown I assume was a joke you included. That's a site that encourages experts such as you or me to contribute "articles"! B/R thought he was good enough prospect to go #1 overall. So did Kiper at one Point. CBS said it was an A+ move for Buffalo.
fergie's ire Posted April 13, 2021 Posted April 13, 2021 16 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: No, it doesn't. He was a near consensus pick. That's the opposite of polarizing. I thought the consensus was that we got the wrong Josh. Yes, some (like Kiper) had him #1...even the best in years...others said he was inaccurate and accuracy can't be taught and was a waste of a pick in the early rounds...polar opposite opinions. He really could not be polarizing unless some thought he was the best prospect.
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