Rigotz Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Thought this might be an interesting debate. In 2017, as we all remember, the Bills made a big trade with KC: - KC receives 10th overall 2017 pick - Bills receive 27th overall 2017 pick - Bills receive KC’s 3rd rounder in 2017 - Bills receive KC’s 1st rounder in 2018 Seeing as we’re drafting at #30 this year, it’s fair to assume that the cost to move up to #10 will be very similar. Big reason for trading up: With 4-5 QBs going in the top 10, you have a chance at an impact DE, CB, or TE. Big reason for not making the trade: 1st round picks are never fun to give away and we saw what happened with the Dolphins and Texans trade. Would you consider moving up, given that the guy you want is available? 1
BuffaloRebound Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 (edited) Nope. Trading future 1sts is a very risky proposition. Things can happen and that 1st rounder ends up being a top 5 pick. Just look at Houston. Although adding Trubisky could be insurance against that scenario. Edited April 10, 2021 by BuffaloRebound
Southern_Bills Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Patrick Surtain Jr or Pitts are the only 2 I would even consider it for. Then you ask yourself "do we win the SB if they are on the roster?" Answer is probably no, so I wouldn't do it this year. Probably would only do it for a can't miss edge rusher which isn't there this year. Just my opinion of course. 1 2
DrDawkinstein Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Rigotz said: Thought this might be an interesting debate. In 2017, as we all remember, the Bills made a big trade with KC: - KC receives 10th overall 2017 pick - Bills receive 27th overall 2017 pick - Bills receive KC’s 3rd rounder in 2017 - Bills receive KC’s 1st rounder in 2018 Seeing as we’re drafting at #30 this year, it’s fair to assume that the cost to move up to #10 will be very similar. Big reason for trading up: With 4-5 QBs going in the top 10, you have a chance at an impact DE, CB, or TE. Big reason for not making the trade: 1st round picks are never fun to give away and we saw what happened with the Dolphins and Texans trade. The reason it was worth KC giving up all those picks was to get a QB. Out of those 3 positions you listed, only DE is worth trading up for. And only if there is a generational-type talent there. Not sure there is even one of those at DE in this draft. Also, kinda funny you want to trade up from #30 to get an impact CB, when according to this post, we got our #1 CB right around #30.... Edited April 10, 2021 by DrDawkinstein 2 5
NewEra Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Southern_Bills said: Patrick Surtain Jr or Pitts are the only 2 I would even consider it for. Then you ask yourself "do we win the SB if they are on the roster?" Answer is probably no, so I wouldn't do it this year. Probably would only do it for a can't miss edge rusher which isn't there this year. Just my opinion of course. I’d add Waddle to that list. He would bring so much to this offense. We could be unstoppable
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Here's the trade I'd consider making. Overll depends who's there and who they may want: Trade our 1st 30th overall to move down to between 5th to 8th in round 2, that gives us their 2nd round and also pick up a 4th and their 5th all around the 5th through 8th pick each round. I'd then take our own 2nd round pick, plus the 4th round we just picked up to move up to roughly the 20th pick in 2nd round Next take our 3rd round pick plus the 5th we just picked up to move up to around 20th in 3rd round So when all done, have 2nd round picks our own 29th, plus around the 5th through 8th in the 2nd round. Our 3rd round pick would now be around the 20th in the round instead of 29th. We'd still have our 2 5th rounders, plus 6th and 7th round left. Overall dropping about 10 spots overall to start, but then gain around 8 spots in 2nd and 3rd round. Draft value chart balances out for the most part. Other option would be to drop to around 15th in 2n round, and pick up an extra 3rd.
Buddo Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 I wouldn't do it in a hurry, and as others have pointed out, I'm not sure there's a generational talent going to be available @ 10. I would also say that while values may on the surface look similar, you are still talking about 3 spots lower than where we traded out to - and I think that would end up costing us more in terms of picks. Tbh, I think we would be better served by trading the pick for an established guy - like we did with Diggs - not that there's anyone on my radar that could be worth that sort of thing.
Thurman#1 Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 KC did it for a QB. They didn't have one. That's pretty much the only good reason to give up so much to go up. Again, the Massey and Thaler study was only the first of many academic studies to look at giving up a lot to go up. https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League.pdf And they all say the same thing. Giving up a lot to trade up lowers your chances of a good outcome. Getting a lot to trade down raises your chances of a good outcome. 1
Rc2catch Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 I wouldn’t do it. Once you enter the quarterback being paid period you’ll need all the draft picks you can get. Allen’s potential deal won’t hit for awhile but it would be nice to have those rookies under contract when it does hit. I don’t think it’s realistic to move up that much for a non quarterback move.
Bangarang Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Not a fan of trading up on the 1st round for anything other than QB. 1
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 I think we’re going to get a really, really good CB at 30. Plus that 5th year option which can be huge in certain cases. I want to stay put unless Beane has some info and absolutely has to move up a few spots to get his guy.
whatdrought Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 You only give up first round picks for QB’s. Look at the teams that have given multiple firsts for non-QB’s: - Texans gave two first rounders for LT, now they’re in shambles. - Seahawks have 2 firsts for S who doesn’t even play safety. Their star QB wants out cause they can’t build a competent team around him. - Rams traded 2 first round Picks for a CB, had the best defense in the league and lost in the divisional round and traded more first rounders for QB. The idea that a team is “one move” away and that overspending to make that move is a good idea is just wrong. 1
Chandler#81 Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Some very solid reasoning not to trade up. Ergo, that’s Exactly what we’ll do!
Warcodered Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 I mean if you're going to trade actual 1st round picks you might as well trade them for actual proven players not draft picks. 1 1
Nextmanup Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 Never move up, unless you need a franchise QB and you think you can get him with the move up. Trade down, especially at 30! More kicks at the can are better than less.
WickedGame Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 No need. The Eagles find their way into TE Pitts territory, solving their Zach Ertz standoff problem. Set free of that holdout scenario, they trade Ertz to Buffalo, maybe even for a second rounder. Buffalo stays put in round 1 and grabs a rock solid CB to pair with Tre White. Now we’re only shy a stud DE, but there was none at 30 anyway, but we’ve majorly upgraded CB2 and TE and we have five picks to take a few fliers on.
TailgateChef Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: Here's the trade I'd consider making. Overll depends who's there and who they may want: Trade our 1st 30th overall to move down to between 5th to 8th in round 2, that gives us their 2nd round and also pick up a 4th and their 5th all around the 5th through 8th pick each round. I'd then take our own 2nd round pick, plus the 4th round we just picked up to move up to roughly the 20th pick in 2nd round Next take our 3rd round pick plus the 5th we just picked up to move up to around 20th in 3rd round So when all done, have 2nd round picks our own 29th, plus around the 5th through 8th in the 2nd round. Our 3rd round pick would now be around the 20th in the round instead of 29th. We'd still have our 2 5th rounders, plus 6th and 7th round left. Overall dropping about 10 spots overall to start, but then gain around 8 spots in 2nd and 3rd round. Draft value chart balances out for the most part. Other option would be to drop to around 15th in 2n round, and pick up an extra 3rd. That was a voyage. But I followed the whole thing! Wonder what the odds would be on that exact sequence.
Ya Digg? Posted April 10, 2021 Posted April 10, 2021 50 minutes ago, WickedGame said: No need. The Eagles find their way into TE Pitts territory, solving their Zach Ertz standoff problem. Set free of that holdout scenario, they trade Ertz to Buffalo, maybe even for a second rounder. Buffalo stays put in round 1 and grabs a rock solid CB to pair with Tre White. Now we’re only shy a stud DE, but there was none at 30 anyway, but we’ve majorly upgraded CB2 and TE and we have five picks to take a few fliers on. I’m going to suggest that you change the trade compensation for Ertz before some of the other members here read your post. No way the Bills would give up a second for Ertz, ESPECIALLY if the Eagles get Pitts (not gonna happen) and have no need for Ertz any more 2
Rigotz Posted April 11, 2021 Author Posted April 11, 2021 8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Also, kinda funny you want to trade up from #30 to get an impact CB, when according to this post, we got our #1 CB right around #30.... When did I ever say I wanted to do anything? Jesus, everyone is always looking for a fight on this message board. Relax.
thurst44 Posted April 11, 2021 Posted April 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: Never move up, unless you need a franchise QB and you think you can get him with the move up. Trade down, especially at 30! More kicks at the can are better than less. Maybe some years, and most years I'd agree with you, but what's the point of trading down for more 2021 picks when it's going to be hard for rookies to make this roster as it is, especially if you see a guy you have a high 1st round tag on. This would seem the exact year, where if we saw say Jaycee Horn or JOK or Caleb Farley dropping--and we thought this could potentially give us two shutdown corners for 4-5 years (or in the case of JOK, a defensive game-changer--if you think he is)--you go up and grab the player you think could be a near-definite impact player within a year or two. I'm not against trading down for picks, but I'd want them to be picks for 2022 or beyond, either for the positive contingency that Oliver, Edmunds, and let's say Epenesa or Ford earn second contracts alongside Allen and the cap raise is not as much as expected or to keep building capital for that year when you see a guy falling that you are sure is the next Watt.
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