Top 31 NFL prospects, a consensus?

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I haven't finished scouting Lance yet, but based on what I've read and seen so far, he sounds like the best fit for the Shanahan system (outside of Lawrence who is obviously out of reach). I don't think Fields is a good fit at the moment, but his physical skills are so great that maybe Shanahan thinks he can help him turn himself into a better fit for them.

 

I just don't see how they can really justify taking Mac to be honest; I don't think he brings anything to the table right now that they don't already have in Jimmy and I don't expect him to become a better QB than Jimmy long-term either.

 

Re: Tua, Tua was a far superior prospect IMO and I think people have been unfairly harsh on him for just being okay last season while coming back from a gruesome injury and playing with a weak supporting cast.

Maybe Shanny feels a bond with Mac because of their DUIs

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

No, people are harsh on Tua because he doesn't seem to have what it takes to be a star QB in the league.  He does not look like he can make all the throws, and not much of a running threat, not to mention questions about his mental toughness.  And his supporting cast was just fine, certainly far superior to what JA had to work with his first two years.  The Dolphins said repeatedly that he was fully recovered from his injury.  If he wasn't, then he should not have played.   

That's true for Allen's first year for sure and Allen looked worse than Tua as a rookie IMO. I'm not sure Tua's supporting cast was much better if at all better than Allen's in year 2 though. Brown and Beasley were on par if not better than Miami's WRs and Buffalo's OLine was definitely better IMO. At any rate, we've only had about half a season of Tua playing so far. His supporting cast should be much better this season and he'll be another year removed from the leg injury. If he doesn't take a step this year, I think we can write him off, but I don't think it's fair to do so after an okay rookie season considering all the context around it. He looked to have lost a bit of the zip on his throws from college, but he's absolutely still a running threat and a talented passer.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

That's true for Allen's first year for sure and Allen looked worse than Tua as a rookie IMO. I'm not sure Tua's supporting cast was much better if at all better than Allen's in year 2 though. Brown and Beasley were on par if not better than Miami's WRs and Buffalo's OLine was definitely better IMO. At any rate, we've only had about half a season of Tua playing so far. His supporting cast should be much better this season and he'll be another year removed from the leg injury. If he doesn't take a step this year, I think we can write him off, but I don't think it's fair to do so after an okay rookie season considering all the context around it. He looked to have lost a bit of the zip on his throws from college, but he's absolutely still a running threat and a talented passer.

Yeah, I agree that it's too early to completely write the guy off, but Miami was reportedly considered a frontrunner to trade for Watson (when that was considered feasible) and were also rumored to be at least thinking about taking a QB at 3, although that's now off the table of course.  It will be interesting to see if they invest a second or third rounder in a QB in this year's draft.  

[DCOrange]

14 minutes ago, mannc said:

No, people are harsh on Tua because he doesn't seem to have what it takes to be a star QB in the league.  He does not look like he can make all the throws, and not much of a running threat, not to mention questions about his mental toughness.  And his supporting cast was just fine, certainly far superior to what JA had to work with his first two years.  The Dolphins said repeatedly that he was fully recovered from his injury.  If he wasn't, then he should not have played.   

No way they take Lance that high.  He's barely played in the past year and he's played only one year of 1-AA ball.  Way too risky at that spot.

Talent is talent. If not San Fran, someone is going to take Lance early. Guys with his physical tools are rare, and guys with his physical tools and decision-making are even rarer.

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Yeah, I agree that it's too early to completely write the guy off, but Miami was reportedly considered a frontrunner to trade for Watson (when that was considered feasible) and were also rumored to be at least thinking about taking a QB at 3, although that's now off the table of course.  It will be interesting to see if they invest a second or third rounder in a QB in this year's draft.  

If they could have traded for Watson (obviously before his current issues), that would be a no-brainer IMO. Even if Tua develops well, you're hoping he turns into someone like Watson. I'm skeptical they were ever seriously considering a QB at 3; I think their intention was always to grab Pitts, Sewell, or one of the WRs and that's why they ultimately made sure they could pick up the 6th pick when they traded down. I'd be shocked if they spent an early pick on a QB. They already have a solid backup in Brissett in case things go off the rails with Tua and they're ready to push for a playoff spot; they'll almost certainly use their premium picks to build up the team around Tua and then if he looks bad this year, then maybe they'll start looking for a potential replacement.

[mannc]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Talent is talent. If not San Fran, someone is going to take Lance early. Guys with his physical tools are rare, and guys with his physical tools and decision-making are even rarer.

Someone will probably take Lance in round 1, but I bet it’s not in the top 10.  Carolina wasn’t interested, apparently.  Unless there’s another trade up, I can’t see who will take him before NE.  Denver?  Philly?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Why would they need a smoke screen if they already have the pick between the three?

 

I guess that is right. I just don't believe any of this Mack Jones at 3 nonsense. So it is a manufactured story from somewhere. I guess the media? 

 

 

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, mannc said:

Someone will probably take Lance in round 1, but I bet it’s not in the top 10.  Carolina wasn’t interested, apparently.  Unless there’s another trade up, I can’t see who will take him before NE.  Denver?  Philly?

I expect someone will trade up for him if San Fran doesn't take him themselves but we'll see. New England and Washington are two candidates that stand out to me. Might be a smokescreen but I know there's a buzz that Washington is in love with him.

[YoloinOhio]

51 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I expect someone will trade up for him if San Fran doesn't take him themselves but we'll see. New England and Washington are two candidates that stand out to me. Might be a smokescreen but I know there's a buzz that Washington is in love with him.

Well, they really need  a Qb...  doubt it’s a smokescreen 

Edited April 9, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[IgotBILLStopay]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

What are your thoughts on Oweh?  When I wrote the conclusion to the rankings, I remembered this thread by @MAJBobby:

 

 

His testing is off the charts - but he had zero sacks last year. Sacks are not the end all, but zero? I am old school and always put greater weight on performance on the field. Zero sacks in seven games against college OLs for a first round edge rusher - something is not right, no?

[YoloinOhio]

22 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I guess that is right. I just don't believe any of this Mack Jones at 3 nonsense. So it is a manufactured story from somewhere. I guess the media? 

 

 

This guy analyzes the draft prospects for a living and he doesn’t even give Jones a round 1 grade. Using 3 firsts on him tho! I’ll eat my hat

[mannc]

45 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

This guy analyzes the draft prospects for a living and he doesn’t even give Jones a round 1 grade. Using 3 firsts on him tho! I’ll eat my hat

Lots, and I mean lots, of guys who "analyze draft prospects for a living" didn't give Josh Allen a round 1 grade.  Joe Marino, who prides himself as a draft guru, had Allen as QB8, behind such luminaries as Kyle Lauletta and Mason Rudolph, not to mention Josh Rosen.  Draft experts are spectacularly wrong all the time, especially when it comes to QBs. 

[maddenboy]

On 4/9/2021 at 10:35 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I guess that is right. I just don't believe any of this Mack Jones at 3 nonsense. So it is a manufactured story from somewhere. I guess the media? 

 

 

Chris Simms talks about it ALL the time.

 

Florio (PFT) talks all the time about how Simms talks about it all the time.  And about how Simms is tight with Shanahan.  With flimsy disclaimers from both about how "I dont have inside knowledge from Kyle, but knowing him . . . Mac Jones at 3"

 

SF has no reason to put this out unless they want to Jedi the JESTS into taking Mac Jones at #2. 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Lots, and I mean lots, of guys who "analyze draft prospects for a living" didn't give Josh Allen a round 1 grade.  Joe Marino, who prides himself as a draft guru, had Allen as QB8, behind such luminaries as Kyle Lauletta and Mason Rudolph, not to mention Josh Rosen.  Draft experts are spectacularly wrong all the time, especially when it comes to QBs. 

Nfl teams are wrong all the time too. With Allen, there was variance due to him being raw - some had him very high And some felt his potential floor was too low. Pretty much everyone agreed he had a high ceiling. but I haven’t seen any variance with Jones where he’s considered one of the elite prospects. Maybe I missed it. The OP shows a consensus of the 30th ranked prospect. They would all have to be wrong. Maybe they will be, just seems like a stretch. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Nfl teams are wrong all the time too. With Allen, there was variance due to him being raw - some had him very high And some felt his potential floor was too low. Pretty much everyone agreed he had a high ceiling. but I haven’t seen any variance with Jones where he’s considered one of the elite prospects. Maybe I missed it. The OP shows a consensus of the 30th ranked prospect. They would all have to be wrong. Maybe they will be, just seems like a stretch. 

Chris Simms has Jones at QB3 and projects him going in the top 10.  (Actually, he says he's going 3 to SF)  So that's one draft analyst who says Jones is far better than the 30th ranked prospect, and he has a very good track record when it comes to ranking QB prospects. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/8/2021 at 4:19 PM, TPS said:

Wanting to avoid a tedious chore, I decided to play around with the prospect rankings and did a "consensus" average using 7 publicly available rankings: Jeremiah, Brandt, Brugler, CBS, NFL.com, Sporting News, and The Draft Network.  I make no claim about how good or bad these sources are, and given there is so much variability, I decided to drop the worst ranking for each prospect, then calculated their average ranking.  If there was a tie, the prospect with the lower standard deviation (not shown) is ranked ahead of the other. Some comments based on the outcome:

 

1. The obvious: there is a consensus #1.

 

2. There appears to be a consensus top 12; then a consensus among the 13 - 21 group; and also among the remaining top 22 - 31.  My meaning here is that there is a jump or gap in the average ranking values greater than 2.5. For example, moving from Surtain (11) to Vera-Tucker (13.8), the difference is 2.8; going from Ojulari (20.8) to Ettiene (23.2) the gap is 2.4; and while the gap between Jones and Newsome is also 2.4, there were no other prospects who averaged close to 30 (Mayfield was next at 33.2). 

 

3. Prospects who seem to be the most difficult to rank, as measured by the standard deviation (in parentheses) of their best 6 rankings: #14 Farley (7.8); #17 Paye (5.6); #19 Phillips (5.5); #22 Ettiene (7.8); #24 Moehrig (9.3); #25 Rousseau (10.2); #26 Barmore (9.7); #27 Oweh (6.7); #30 Jones (6.7); and #31 Newsome (5.9).  What sticks out here are the edge rushers, all of which have high standard deviations (Ojulari's was the lowest at 4.5).  I'd say these #s suggest there is no consensus on who the top edge rusher is between Paye, Phillips, and maybe Ojulari.

 

4. What might this mean for the Bills?  I think it's safe to say the first 21 prospects will be gone, and you can throw in QB Jones for 22.  If anyone drops out of the top 22, it would be Farley, given his standard deviation of almost 8 (the high variability is probably due to his back surgery). It would seem the only edge rushers who might be there at 30 are Rousseau and Oweh (Ossai wasn't close to making the top 30). I don't think the Bills would select Barmore or Toney, and I don't think that Farley will fall that far. I also expect Newsome will go before 30.  So, my guess is one of the following players will be there for the Bills: Oweh, Rousseau, Moehrig, Collins, and possible Ettiene. My personal choice here would be, in order, Oweh, Moehrig, then maybe Ettiene.  However, a trade back might be the optimal decision, especially if Oweh is gone.

 

5. Finally, of the sources I used, The Sporting News was closest to my consensus average ranking, then Brugler (I took the difference between my rank and where they ranked the prospect, then summed up the differences for all 31 players).  The farthest off from this consensus ranking was Brandt.

 

If anything, this little exercise has made me less certain about who the Bills should take at 30.

 (Sorry, I tried several ways to increase the font, but none worked) [Edit: if the viewer clicks on the image, a large version appears]

 

Can't seem to delete the extra images. [Edit: done.  scroll down to "uploaded images", click on the "trash can" for the extras]

 

Nice job, Thanks!  Your avoided chore is our benefit.

 

I cleaned up the extra images and added information about how to obtain a larger image and how to remove extra images, hope that's OK.

 

[TPS]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nice job, Thanks!  Your avoided chore is our benefit.

 

I cleaned up the extra images and added information about how to obtain a larger image and how to remove extra images, hope that's OK.

 

Yes, thanks! I saw the images in the clipboard area, but couldn't figure out how to delete.

[frostbitmic]

On 4/8/2021 at 5:30 PM, YoloinOhio said:

So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect 

They already have a Mac Jones, with experience.

 

Lance or Fields if they don't trade that pick.

 

I still think they'll trade that pick, next years #1 and a #2 or #3 for "can I get some extras" Watson.

[DCOrange]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Chris Simms has Jones at QB3 and projects him going in the top 10.  (Actually, he says he's going 3 to SF)  So that's one draft analyst who says Jones is far better than the 30th ranked prospect, and he has a very good track record when it comes to ranking QB prospects. 

He doesn’t really have that much of a track record. He just lists them in every order imaginable and then in retrospect picks the order that looks best and cites that. He talks about how he had Lamar as his #1 QB in 2018, but by the time draft day rolled around, he had him 4th and had Rosen #2.

[YoloinOhio]

58 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He doesn’t really have that much of a track record. He just lists them in every order imaginable and then in retrospect picks the order that looks best and cites that. He talks about how he had Lamar as his #1 QB in 2018, but by the time draft day rolled around, he had him 4th and had Rosen #2.

What does Chris Simms do? Does he have a podcast or something? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

What does Chris Simms do? Does he have a podcast or something? 

 

"Chris Simms Unbuttoned" podcast

Also appears with Mike Florio as co-host of NBC's ProFootballTalk Live