DCOrange Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Possibly, I just think the top 3 WRs will be gone. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The way I currently view it is: 1-3: All QBs, my guess is Lance is #3 but I know all the buzz is on Mac right now. 4-7: Sewell, Chase, Pitts, and a QB in some order That would mean Waddle and Devonta have to be taken in the 8-11 range and I think we can cross Dallas and NYG off the list for another WR and probably Denver as well so either someone has to trade up ahead of Philly for a WR or one of them will be there IMO. 1
BuffaloRebound Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 36 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: With Rousseau in particular I would put some stock into his pro day. He opted out last year and had all that time to prep for that one day, and his performance for a 1st round pass rusher is concerning. He also is a converted WR or something, I would prefer more seasoning. If Rousseau somehow falls to 30, Id sprint to podium or however picks are done now post-covid. He’s not the athlete Phillips is but he’s strong and slippery and his game changing trait is his strength/length combo. He collapses the pocket and with his length nobody can get around him. Basically takes away one side of the field from the QB to scramble and the RB to run. I’d love Phillips too but can’t see him lasting to 30 unless his medicals are terrible. 1
TPS Posted April 9, 2021 Author Posted April 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, blacklabel said: Nice work! It can be tough to come up with a consensus of best players just because there's so many resources out there now. I remember the days where I'd hit up the magazine section in the supermarket and find a couple of draft guides and follow along with those. Nowadays everyone and their mama got a draft website. I actually had an idea for a draft analysis website a while back. It would poll together player rankings from all over the web and then it would determine the average rank of each player. That way, you'd be able to look at one list and know that Website A ranks him as the #2 CB in the class, Website B has him at 4, so on and so forth and you'd be able to see that the player, on average, would rank 3rd on most analysts lists. I still think it's not the worst idea, I just have no idea how to develop it. And now that I've babbled about it on here, someone gonna steal mah intellectual property! So uh, I trademark, copyright, and give the little circled R sign to this idea. Any of y'all steal it and the Underpants Gnomes gonna be on yo case! It's basically what I did with the 7 rankings I listed. Last year, TheAthletic had a consensus list with some 40+ rankings, so I'm waiting to see if that comes out again. 1
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said: If Rousseau somehow falls to 30, Id sprint to podium or however picks are done now post-covid. He’s not the athlete Phillips is but he’s strong and slippery and his game changing trait is his strength/length combo. He collapses the pocket and with his length nobody can get around him. Basically takes away one side of the field from the QB to scramble and the RB to run. I’d love Phillips too but can’t see him lasting to 30 unless his medicals are terrible. In most years, a small sample size + bad pro day is not a formula for a 1st round grade. This year, I think that’s even more true. It only takes one team though.
NewEra Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, DCOrange said: It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The way I currently view it is: 1-3: All QBs, my guess is Lance is #3 but I know all the buzz is on Mac right now. 4-7: Sewell, Chase, Pitts, and a QB in some order That would mean Waddle and Devonta have to be taken in the 8-11 range and I think we can cross Dallas and NYG off the list for another WR and probably Denver as well so either someone has to trade up ahead of Philly for a WR or one of them will be there IMO. The giants adding golladay could prevent them from going wr, but I think waddle is the pick if he’s on the board. Smith possible. Shepard is always hurt and they have an out in his contract after this year. Golladay and slaton on the outside with waddle or smith manning the slot and moving around is just what Danny Dimes needs. More weapons I think one of, Waddle, Smith, Parsons, or slater will be their pick. I agree, Horn may fall past Eagles, but I think he’s a perfect fit opposite slay. Can’t argue with their need for a WR though 1
BuffaloRebound Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: In most years, a small sample size + bad pro day is not a formula for a 1st round grade. This year, I think that’s even more true. It only takes one team though. I don’t think he had a bad pro day. A dude who’s 6’7” with 35 inch arms and puts up 21 reps and runs a 4.69 forty is pretty rare/impressive. He just had the misfortune of performing alongside Phillips who is what you’d create in a lab for an edge rusher. I think Rousseau will be a beast in the NFL.
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said: I don’t think he had a bad pro day. A dude who’s 6’7” with 35 inch arms and puts up 21 reps and runs a 4.69 forty is pretty rare/impressive. He just had the misfortune of performing alongside Phillips who is what you’d create in a lab for an edge rusher. I think Rousseau will be a beast in the NFL. It will be very landing spot dependent, I think. Will the team have a plan for him and execute that plan, and how quick of a return do you want on your 1st rd pick. He didn’t win with technique in college and it could benefit him to pack on 20 and move inside. He’s a high variance player from that perspective - needs to go the right team. I think he’s mid second rounder all things considered that we know, which is still very good.
Big Turk Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 18 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect Ratings are subjective and maybe Jones fits Shanahan's system perfectly. QBs are a premium position anyway and their absolute value really doesn't matter because they are going to be valued much more highly than other positions.
BuffaloRebound Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: It will be very landing spot dependent, I think. Will the team have a plan for him and execute that plan, and how quick of a return do you want on your 1st rd pick. He didn’t win with technique in college and it could benefit him to pack on 20 and move inside. He’s a high variance player from that perspective - needs to go the right team. I think he’s mid second rounder all things considered that we know, which is still very good. I think he’d be a good fit here. Even in an optimistic scenario he wouldn’t be expected to play more than 50% of snaps in a year 1, and adds an element that Bills don’t have on the edge. If we got a DB at pick 30 and were somehow able to trade up and get Rousseau in middle of 2nd round, that would be a great draft.
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Ratings are subjective and maybe Jones fits Shanahan's system perfectly. QBs are a premium position anyway and their absolute value really doesn't matter because they are going to be valued much more highly than other positions. I think “fit” makes sense when the guy is sitting at your spot and you pull the trigger because he’s there on your board and “fits” your scheme. This man traded two additional 1sts. If he was looking for a guy who fits he could just take Kyle trask and not mortgage the future for years. Investing 3 1sts is typically for elite prospects. The 30th ranked player in the draft class typically isn’t an “elite prospect”. I’ll believe it when I see it. Edited April 9, 2021 by YoloinOhio
mannc Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said: I think “fit” makes sense when the guy is sitting at your spot and you pull the trigger because he’s there on your board and “fits” your scheme. This man traded two additional 1sts. If he was looking for a guy who fits he could just take Kyle trask. Investing 3 1sts is typically for elite prospects. The 30th ranked player in the draft class typically isn’t an “elite prospect”. I’ll believe it when I see it. I agree that these huge trade-ups (multiple first round picks) to move up for a QB rarely work out, but the fact that some expert "consensus" has Jones ranked as the 30th best player is pretty meaningless. I mean, Tua was ranked in the top three or four by lots of experts last year and it's pretty clear he should not have been taken in the first round. And of course the "consensus" on JA would have had him as QB4 or 5. I have a pretty high level of confidence in Shanahan and the Niners when it comes to these sorts of evaluations. They have drafted very well lately...
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: With Rousseau in particular I would put some stock into his pro day. He opted out last year and had all that time to prep for that one day, and his performance for a 1st round pass rusher is concerning. He also is a converted WR or something, I would prefer more seasoning. Yolo, Ideally I want more seasoning too. So I dont disagree with you. But there is a tradeoff - ceiling or floor no? If the player had both (like Chase Young), he wouldnt be available at #30, no? At this point, I want the ceiling. I want the player picked to be a potential upgrade over what we have and not another decent but not great addition. If you go for a more seasoned (safer) player with a higher floor, you give up on the ceiling. Typically these players are the ones with more divergent ratings (higher standard deviation). Go for Rousseau!! 1
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Yolo, Ideally I want more seasoning too. So I dont disagree with you. But there is a tradeoff - ceiling or floor no? If the player had both (like Chase Young), he wouldnt be available at #30, no? At this point, I want the ceiling. I want the player picked to be a potential upgrade over what we have and not another decent but not great addition. If you go for a more seasoned (safer) player with a higher floor, you give up on the ceiling. Typically these players are the ones with more divergent ratings (higher standard deviation). Go for Rousseau!! He definitely has a high ceiling. Will need the right scheme and coaching to realize that. And patience. 1
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, mannc said: I agree that these huge trade-ups (multiple first round picks) to move up for a QB rarely work out, but the fact that some expert "consensus" has Jones ranked as the 30th best player is pretty meaningless. I mean, Tua was ranked in the top three or four by lots of experts last year and it's pretty clear he should not have been taken in the first round. And of course the "consensus" on JA would have had him as QB4 or 5. I have a pretty high level of confidence in Shanahan and the Niners when it comes to these sorts of evaluations. They have drafted very well lately... I’m just going off of the evaluations of the guys who watch the film. Seems like not a lot of variance. Allen was much different imo because even with the variance on grade he also had a sky high ceiling/elite traits that everyone agreed on. I don’t think we know yet where Tua should have gone. But (and I don’t helmet scout) he was considered a much better prospect than Jones all the way through and Jones is coming from the same system, so that may add to his concerns. I personally do not have any idea where any of them *should* go. It’s the investment that trips me out. I don’t really know if i trust this Niners regime on their qb evaluation though. They’ve never drafted one, at least in the 1st, and the one the signed is now on his way out. 2
mannc Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: I’m just going off of the evaluations of the guys who watch the film. Seems like not a lot of variance. Allen was much different imo because even with the variance on grade he also had a sky high ceiling/elite traits that everyone agreed on. I don’t think we know yet where Tua should have gone. But (and I don’t helmet scout) he was considered a much better prospect than Jones all the way through and Jones is coming from the same system, so that may add to his concerns. I personally do not have any idea where any of them *should* go. It’s the investment that trips me out. I don’t really know if i trust this Niners regime on their qb evaluation though. They’ve never drafted one, at least in the 1st, and the one the signed is now on his way out. I'm pretty sure one of the Tide WRs this year (Devonta Smith, I think) said that Jones is definitely a better QB than Tua. Chris Simms has also said that Jones's tape is much better than Tua's. Edited April 9, 2021 by mannc
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: I’m just going off of the evaluations of the guys who watch the film. Seems like not a lot of variance. Allen was much different imo because even with the variance on grade he also had a sky high ceiling/elite traits that everyone agreed on. I don’t think we know yet where Tua should have gone. But (and I don’t helmet scout) he was considered a much better prospect than Jones all the way through and Jones is coming from the same system, so that may add to his concerns. I personally do not have any idea where any of them *should* go. It’s the investment that trips me out. I don’t really know if i trust this Niners regime on their qb evaluation though. They’ve never drafted one, at least in the 1st, and the one the signed is now on his way out. I haven't finished scouting Lance yet, but based on what I've read and seen so far, he sounds like the best fit for the Shanahan system (outside of Lawrence who is obviously out of reach). I don't think Fields is a good fit at the moment, but his physical skills are so great that maybe Shanahan thinks he can help him turn himself into a better fit for them. I just don't see how they can really justify taking Mac to be honest; I don't think he brings anything to the table right now that they don't already have in Jimmy and I don't expect him to become a better QB than Jimmy long-term either. Re: Tua, Tua was a far superior prospect IMO and I think people have been unfairly harsh on him for just being okay last season while coming back from a gruesome injury and playing with a weak supporting cast. Edited April 9, 2021 by DCOrange
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, mannc said: I'm pretty sure one of the Tide WRs this year (Devonta Smith, I think) said that Jones is definitely a better QB than Tua. Chris Simms has also said that Jones's tape is much better than Tua's. That may say more about Tua. Again, I’m just going off these evaluations posted above. It’s not mine, I watched him play maybe twice. 5 minutes ago, DCOrange said: I haven't finished scouting Lance yet, but based on what I've read and seen so far, he sounds like the best fit for the Shanahan system (outside of Lawrence who is obviously out of reach). I don't think Fields is a good fit at the moment, but his physical skills are so great that maybe Shanahan thinks he can help him turn himself into a better fit for them. I just don't see how they can really justify taking Mac to be honest; I don't think he brings anything to the table right now that they don't already have in Jimmy and I don't expect him to become a better QB than Jimmy long-term either. Re: Tua, Tua was a far superior prospect IMO and I think people have been unfairly harsh on him for just being okay last season while coming back from a gruesome injury and playing with a weak supporting cast. I also think they will take lance
TPS Posted April 9, 2021 Author Posted April 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Yolo, Ideally I want more seasoning too. So I dont disagree with you. But there is a tradeoff - ceiling or floor no? If the player had both (like Chase Young), he wouldnt be available at #30, no? At this point, I want the ceiling. I want the player picked to be a potential upgrade over what we have and not another decent but not great addition. If you go for a more seasoned (safer) player with a higher floor, you give up on the ceiling. Typically these players are the ones with more divergent ratings (higher standard deviation). Go for Rousseau!! What are your thoughts on Oweh? When I wrote the conclusion to the rankings, I remembered this thread by @MAJBobby:
Boxcar Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The way I currently view it is: 1-3: All QBs, my guess is Lance is #3 but I know all the buzz is on Mac right now. 4-7: Sewell, Chase, Pitts, and a QB in some order That would mean Waddle and Devonta have to be taken in the 8-11 range and I think we can cross Dallas and NYG off the list for another WR and probably Denver as well so either someone has to trade up ahead of Philly for a WR or one of them will be there IMO. Slater could go in the 4-7 range, too.
mannc Posted April 9, 2021 Posted April 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, DCOrange said: I haven't finished scouting Lance yet, but based on what I've read and seen so far, he sounds like the best fit for the Shanahan system (outside of Lawrence who is obviously out of reach). I don't think Fields is a good fit at the moment, but his physical skills are so great that maybe Shanahan thinks he can help him turn himself into a better fit for them. I just don't see how they can really justify taking Mac to be honest; I don't think he brings anything to the table right now that they don't already have in Jimmy and I don't expect him to become a better QB than Jimmy long-term either. Re: Tua, Tua was a far superior prospect IMO and I think people have been unfairly harsh on him for just being okay last season while coming back from a gruesome injury and playing with a weak supporting cast. No, people are harsh on Tua because he doesn't seem to have what it takes to be a star QB in the league. He does not look like he can make all the throws, and not much of a running threat, not to mention questions about his mental toughness. And his supporting cast was just fine, certainly far superior to what JA had to work with his first two years. The Dolphins said repeatedly that he was fully recovered from his injury. If he wasn't, then he should not have played. 11 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: That may say more about Tua. Again, I’m just going off these evaluations posted above. It’s not mine, I watched him play maybe twice. I also think they will take lance No way they take Lance that high. He's barely played in the past year and he's played only one year of 1-AA ball. Way too risky at that spot.
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