Top 31 NFL prospects, a consensus?

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have Melifonwu as a mega reach at #30. It would genuinely be wall punching time. Campbell would be a reach but a less agregious one. 

I agree mof I don't think there's much of a drop off from the CBs in the 2nd or even 3rd rd. Mcd is great at developing talent in the secondary we can wait for a Campbell, Odebo, or Trill Williams type . 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Don't believe it. Mac Jones is a smoke screen. They're taking either Fields or Lance. My money would be on Fields.

Why would they need a smoke screen if they already have the pick between the three?

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Haven't we learned our lesson about the faller in the draft especially trading up for them. We traded up for Ford, Zay, Edmunds &  Moss everyone Beane trades up for hasn't been worth it except for Allen thankfully but he wasn't considered a faller at that point. 

 

Edmunds has made the pro bowl twice he's not a bust but he wasn't worth moving up for in a strong draft for Lbers both Leonard & Warner are much better players then Edmunds and I believe Leonard went in the 2nd rd and Warner in the 3rd . We gave up a 3rd to get Edmunds only to use him at the wrong position he should be a SAM linebacker he doesn't seem to have the instinct to play in the middle always seems like he's a step behind . I really hope this yr he finally figures it out and becomes a beast but as of right now he's the Donte Witner of Lbers. 

 

I'm on team go pure BPA or trade bk no player in this draft is worth trading up for in my opinion especially since the 2nd threw 5th rd seem like there loaded . I'm also not a fan of drafting for need that always seems to backfire more times then not. 

Beane didn’t trade up for moss and wasn’t even here when Zay was drafted 

[Don Otreply]

Under / over, how many ranking selections will be wrong? I’m going with 70% / 30% to the being wrong side, it’s likely to be even higher... 😁

[BillsFan1988]

33 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Beane didn’t trade up for moss and wasn’t even here when Zay was drafted 

My bad he tried to trade up for Moss and Mcd traded up for Zay in a strong Wr class . I believe they did that because of the Wr coach we hired from East Carolina but still just shows u sometimes familiarity doesn't work. I'm not trying to say our front office is bad or anything like that just making an example of how trading up doesn't work. 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

Kinda did the same thing except I went thru 30 National mock drafts and then filtered thru the players that were left from the National rankings that the Bills could choose.  Only listing the draftees that were available 50% or more .  The Bills choose Jayson Oweh the most followed by Harris an then Jenkins.  Here's the list:

 

Sam Cosmi - 76%

Kadariius Toney - 64%

Jayson Oweh - 64%

Christian Barmore - 60%

Zaven Collins - 56%

Rashad Bateman - 52%

Taven Jenkins - 50%

Najee Harris - 50%

 

 

[papazoid]

the raiders think someone outside that list is BPA

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Haven't we learned our lesson about the faller in the draft especially trading up for them. We traded up for Ford, Zay, Edmunds &  Moss everyone Beane trades up for hasn't been worth it except for Allen thankfully but he wasn't considered a faller at that point. 

 

Edmunds has made the pro bowl twice he's not a bust but he wasn't worth moving up for in a strong draft for Lbers both Leonard & Warner are much better players then Edmunds and I believe Leonard went in the 2nd rd and Warner in the 3rd . We gave up a 3rd to get Edmunds only to use him at the wrong position he should be a SAM linebacker he doesn't seem to have the instinct to play in the middle always seems like he's a step behind . I really hope this yr he finally figures it out and becomes a beast but as of right now he's the Donte Witner of Lbers. 

 

I'm on team go pure BPA or trade bk no player in this draft is worth trading up for in my opinion especially since the 2nd threw 5th rd seem like there loaded . I'm also not a fan of drafting for need that always seems to backfire more times then not. 

 

Sometimes trade-ups are the best move.  Sometimes a trade-down is better.  Sometimes it's better to stay put.

Each situation is different, depending on how a GM has players ranked, team need, overall value on the board, positional depth of the prospect class, what trade offers are available, etc., etc., etc.

 

As you mentioned, the best draft move the Bills have made in the last 30+ years (if not ever) was trading up for Josh Allen.

We also got a starting Left Tackle in Dion Dawkins in a draft day trade-up, just before Brandon Beane arrived on the scene.

You can find other examples all across the NFL of trade-ups that worked out great.

 

It's way too easy to look back years later with 20/20 vision and find late round picks who we "could" have taken.  GMs can only go by their own scouting and rankings at the time.  We needed a MLB for this defense, and our scouting department LOVED the potential for Tremaine Edmunds.  At that time, nobody had Fred Werner close to the same tier, and Dareus Leonard plays on the weakside (like Matt Milano).  The simple fact was... if they wanted Edmunds, they probably needed to make the trade-up to get him.

 

Going into the offseason, I felt like the Bills needed to to upgrade their pass rush and secondary in order to compete with Kansas City.  They did virtually nothing to address either position in Free Agency.  So while I'm a believer in BPA and agree that we shouldn't get desperate in the draft - it would be very disappointing for me to see us walk out of the draft without a DE and CB in the first three rounds.  Our overall roster is extremely deep and it will be tough for late-round draft selections to actually make the roster.  So depending on how the board falls, I think a trade-up may be the smartest move.  If someone like Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips, Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn make it to around #20 (where we could get up for a mid-round pick), then I think Beane should strongly consider it.

 

[mannc]

15 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect 

No, you should question whether Jones is really the 30th best prospect...

[mannc]

14 hours ago, glazeduck said:

 

Really only your top 2 feel like "worthwhile" picks at 30 -- there's about 8 guys that are about the same caliber as your bottom four, some of which will likely be able to be had at 61.

 

I think a trade up or back are both very likely. Beane likes to move around to go get his guy, and has shown time and again that if he can't, he's open to moving back to draft value. While I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a risk on Oweh, if both he and Ossai are on the board at 30, it feels incredibly likely that we may take even a little less than fair value to move back a few spots where we could still get one of those guys...

 

I appreciate the OP's hard work and I think it's definitely a worthwhile thought exercise, but Beane just isn't the type of guy to let himself get stuck in a situation where he has to take a guy he doesn't like just because the board shakes out that way. He'll move up or back... 

Name one time Beane has traded back...seems to me he only trades up.

[BillsFan1988]

52 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Sometimes trade-ups are the best move.  Sometimes a trade-down is better.  Sometimes it's better to stay put.

Each situation is different, depending on how a GM has players ranked, team need, overall value on the board, positional depth of the prospect class, what trade offers are available, etc., etc., etc.

 

As you mentioned, the best draft move the Bills have made in the last 30+ years (if not ever) was trading up for Josh Allen.

We also got a starting Left Tackle in Dion Dawkins in a draft day trade-up, just before Brandon Beane arrived on the scene.

You can find other examples all across the NFL of trade-ups that worked out great.

 

It's way too easy to look back years later with 20/20 vision and find late round picks who we "could" have taken.  GMs can only go by their own scouting and rankings at the time.  We needed a MLB for this defense, and our scouting department LOVED the potential for Tremaine Edmunds.  At that time, nobody had Fred Werner close to the same tier, and Dareus Leonard plays on the weakside (like Matt Milano).  The simple fact was... if they wanted Edmunds, they probably needed to make the trade-up to get him.

 

Going into the offseason, I felt like the Bills needed to to upgrade their pass rush and secondary in order to compete with Kansas City.  They did virtually nothing to address either position in Free Agency.  So while I'm a believer in BPA and agree that we shouldn't get desperate in the draft - it would be very disappointing for me to see us walk out of the draft without a DE and CB in the first three rounds.  Our overall roster is extremely deep and it will be tough for late-round draft selections to actually make the roster.  So depending on how the board falls, I think a trade-up may be the smartest move.  If someone like Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips, Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn make it to around #20 (where we could get up for a mid-round pick), then I think Beane should strongly consider it.

 

Dion Dawkins wasn't a faller though I was speaking in terms of trading up for a player that's fallen on the board. There's usually a reason they have fallen but then again not all situations are the same.

1 minute ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Dion Dawkins wasn't a faller though I was speaking in terms of trading up for a player that's fallen on the board. There's usually a reason they have fallen but then again not all situations are the same.

Phillips I would not at all entertain moving up for he's already a big risk with his concussion history . 

[IgotBILLStopay]

Nice job OP! There is a consensus top 9, top 12, top 17, top 21 and top 30!

 

I thought Jaycee Horn would go higher - that was the big surprise to me. Mac Jones will go higher obviously.

 

Greg Rousseau is falling - and I think that might be one opportunity to get a game changer. The 2019 tape doesnt lie. Dont let the pro-day numbers fool ya, especially this year.

[YoloinOhio]

41 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Nice job OP! There is a consensus top 9, top 12, top 17, top 21 and top 30!

 

I thought Jaycee Horn would go higher - that was the big surprise to me. Mac Jones will go higher obviously.

 

Greg Rousseau is falling - and I think that might be one opportunity to get a game changer. The 2019 tape doesnt lie. Dont let the pro-day numbers fool ya, especially this year.

With Rousseau in particular I would put some stock into his pro day. He opted out last year and had all that time to prep for that one day, and his performance for a 1st round pass rusher is concerning. He also is a converted WR or something, I would prefer more seasoning. 

[Boxcar]

15 hours ago, NewEra said:

Yup.  Looking like corner.  There are a handful of corners that could be worthy of the 30th selection.  I think surtain and Horn will be gone by the 12th pick.  Farley could be gone by then as well.  Any of these guys could be the pick

 

Farley

Newsome

campbell

Melinfonwu

Stokes

some say Samuel

 

 

In some of those mocks you can do, Horn is making it pretty close to 30. With his injury, Farley could fall, too. If neither of those two are there, I'd take BPA (even if it's Najee Harris) and then trade up in round 2 to get Samuel.

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

In some of those mocks you can do, Horn is making it pretty close to 30. With his injury, Farley could fall, too. If neither of those two are there, I'd take BPA (even if it's Najee Harris) and then trade up in round 2 to get Samuel.

This mocks are stupid.  I don’t see Horn falling passed Philly @12.  He’s a stud and there’s no way he lasts til 30.  Farley would be intriguing and I’d sprint to the podium with hope that he isn’t always injured.  
 

No thanks on Samuel. Good man corner. Not ideal for this scheme.  I’d prefer several other corners to him.

[DCOrange]

17 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect 

Curious if any of the other draft scouts here have really looked at the QB position. Obviously not a need for us, but I always focus most of my time on the QBs just for fun and ended up with an early 3rd round grade on Mac.

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This mocks are stupid.  I don’t see Horn falling passed Philly @12.  He’s a stud and there’s no way he lasts til 30.  Farley would be intriguing and I’d sprint to the podium with hope that he isn’t always injured.  
 

No thanks on Samuel. Good man corner. Not ideal for this scheme.  I’d prefer several other corners to him.

Horn definitely won't last to 30, but I do think he could slide past Philly. I expect one of the WRs to fall in Philly's lap at 12 and I think that'll be very difficult for them to turn down.

[blacklabel]

Nice work! It can be tough to come up with a consensus of best players just because there's so many resources out there now. I remember the days where I'd hit up the magazine section in the supermarket and find a couple of draft guides and follow along with those. Nowadays everyone and their mama got a draft website. I actually had an idea for a draft analysis website a while back. It would poll together player rankings from all over the web and then it would determine the average rank of each player. That way, you'd be able to look at one list and know that Website A ranks him as the #2 CB in the class, Website B has him at 4, so on and so forth and you'd be able to see that the player, on average, would rank 3rd on most analysts lists. I still think it's not the worst idea, I just have no idea how to develop it. And now that I've babbled about it on here, someone gonna steal mah intellectual property! So uh, I trademark, copyright, and give the little circled R sign to this idea. Any of y'all steal it and the Underpants Gnomes gonna be on yo case!

[NewEra]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Horn definitely won't last to 30, but I do think he could slide past Philly. I expect one of the WRs to fall in Philly's lap at 12 and I think that'll be very difficult for them to turn down.

Possibly, I just think the top 3 WRs will be gone.  

[TPS]

16 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This mocks are stupid.  I don’t see Horn falling passed Philly @12.  He’s a stud and there’s no way he lasts til 30.  Farley would be intriguing and I’d sprint to the podium with hope that he isn’t always injured.  
 

No thanks on Samuel. Good man corner. Not ideal for this scheme.  I’d prefer several other corners to him.

There are too many CB needy teams for the top 3 to fall to 30, and, as I said, I don't believe Newsome will be there either.  Teams will do their due diligence on Farley, and someone will grab him before 30 for sure. If you take my stats with more than a grain of salt, there is a 2.5% chance Horn will be available at 30.