Top 31 NFL prospects, a consensus?

[TPS]

***  Update: The Athletic came out with their consensus big board of the top 300 prospects using over 50 ranking sites.  I added that comparison on the last page. Turns out my sample was a good picture of their ranking.  I have a link to their big board on that update.

 

Wanting to avoid a tedious chore, I decided to play around with the prospect rankings and did a "consensus" average using 7 publicly available rankings: Jeremiah, Brandt, Brugler, CBS, NFL.com, Sporting News, and The Draft Network.  I make no claim about how good or bad these sources are, and given there is so much variability, I decided to drop the worst ranking for each prospect, then calculated their average ranking.  If there was a tie, the prospect with the lower standard deviation (not shown) is ranked ahead of the other. Some comments based on the outcome:

 

1. The obvious: there is a consensus #1.

 

2. There appears to be a consensus top 12; then a consensus among the 13 - 21 group; and also among the remaining top 22 - 31.  My meaning here is that there is a jump or gap in the average ranking values greater than 2.5. For example, moving from Surtain (11) to Vera-Tucker (13.8), the difference is 2.8; going from Ojulari (20.8) to Ettiene (23.2) the gap is 2.4; and while the gap between Jones and Newsome is also 2.4, there were no other prospects who averaged close to 30 (Mayfield was next at 33.2). 

 

3. Prospects who seem to be the most difficult to rank, as measured by the standard deviation (in parentheses) of their best 6 rankings: #14 Farley (7.8); #17 Paye (5.6); #19 Phillips (5.5); #22 Ettiene (7.8); #24 Moehrig (9.3); #25 Rousseau (10.2); #26 Barmore (9.7); #27 Oweh (6.7); #30 Jones (6.7); and #31 Newsome (5.9).  What sticks out here are the edge rushers, all of which have high standard deviations (Ojulari's was the lowest at 4.5).  I'd say these #s suggest there is no consensus on who the top edge rusher is between Paye, Phillips, and maybe Ojulari.

 

4. What might this mean for the Bills?  I think it's safe to say the first 21 prospects will be gone, and you can throw in QB Jones for 22.  If anyone drops out of the top 22, it would be Farley, given his standard deviation of almost 8 (the high variability is probably due to his back surgery). It would seem the only edge rushers who might be there at 30 are Rousseau and Oweh (Ossai wasn't close to making the top 30). I don't think the Bills would select Barmore or Toney, and I don't think that Farley will fall that far. I also expect Newsome will go before 30.  So, my guess is one of the following players will be there for the Bills: Oweh, Rousseau, Moehrig, Collins, and possible Ettiene. My personal choice here would be, in order, Oweh, Moehrig, then maybe Ettiene.  However, a trade back might be the optimal decision, especially if Oweh is gone.

 

5. Finally, of the sources I used, The Sporting News was closest to my consensus average ranking, then Brugler (I took the difference between my rank and where they ranked the prospect, then summed up the differences for all 31 players).  The farthest off from this consensus ranking was Brandt.

 

If anything, this little exercise has made me less certain about who the Bills should take at 30.

 (Sorry, I tried several ways to increase the font, but none worked) [Edit: if the viewer clicks on the image, a large version appears]

 

Can't seem to delete the extra images. [Edit: done.  scroll down to "uploaded images", click on the "trash can" for the extras]

 

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by TPS
delete extra images

[Mike in Horseheads]

The Stats class revisited,  this is great.  I love your conclusion and thanks for your effort.

[YoloinOhio]

So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect 

[BillsfaninSB]

If Newsome is available that would be an easy selection. 

[whatdrought]

Farley at 30 is gonna be suhweet!

[mjt328]

I've done similar research on multiple sites, and also done multiple draft mocks on both the Draft Network and Pro Football Focus.

Pretty much agree with your assessments.

 

Personally, I would like the Bills to select either an Edge Rusher or Cornerback with their first pick.

In every case, the Top 3 CBs are long-gone by #30.  And if one of the top DEs drops, it's usually Gregory Rousseau (who has dropped huge due to his red flags).

 

If I'm Brandon Beane, I think the best move would be to watch the board closely on draft night... then either jump up 5 slots or so to get a DE or CB that falls, OR trade back into the top of the 2nd Round and get someone like Asante Samuel Jr..  Then maybe do something similar to move higher with Pick #61, because we are in a similar predicament in that round (just out of reach of the best value guys).

 

[NewEra]

38 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I've done similar research on multiple sites, and also done multiple draft mocks on both the Draft Network and Pro Football Focus.

Pretty much agree with your assessments.

 

Personally, I would like the Bills to select either an Edge Rusher or Cornerback with their first pick.

In every case, the Top 3 CBs are long-gone by #30.  And if one of the top DEs drops, it's usually Gregory Rousseau (who has dropped huge due to his red flags).

 

If I'm Brandon Beane, I think the best move would be to watch the board closely on draft night... then either jump up 5 slots or so to get a DE or CB that falls, OR trade back into the top of the 2nd Round and get someone like Asante Samuel Jr..  Then maybe do something similar to move higher with Pick #61, because we are in a similar predicament in that round (just out of reach of the best value guys).

 

Yup.  Looking like corner.  There are a handful of corners that could be worthy of the 30th selection.  I think surtain and Horn will be gone by the 12th pick.  Farley could be gone by then as well.  Any of these guys could be the pick

 

Farley

Newsome

campbell

Melinfonwu

Stokes

some say Samuel

 

 

[glazeduck]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yup.  Looking like corner.  There are a handful of corners that could be worthy of the 30th selection.  I think surtain and Horn will be gone by the 12th pick.  Farley could be gone by then as well.  Any of these guys could be the pick

 

Farley

Newsome

campbell

Melinfonwu

Stokes

some say Samuel

 

 

 

Really only your top 2 feel like "worthwhile" picks at 30 -- there's about 8 guys that are about the same caliber as your bottom four, some of which will likely be able to be had at 61.

 

I think a trade up or back are both very likely. Beane likes to move around to go get his guy, and has shown time and again that if he can't, he's open to moving back to draft value. While I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a risk on Oweh, if both he and Ossai are on the board at 30, it feels incredibly likely that we may take even a little less than fair value to move back a few spots where we could still get one of those guys...

 

I appreciate the OP's hard work and I think it's definitely a worthwhile thought exercise, but Beane just isn't the type of guy to let himself get stuck in a situation where he has to take a guy he doesn't like just because the board shakes out that way. He'll move up or back... 

Edited April 8, 2021 by glazeduck

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 

Really only your top 2 feel like "worthwhile" picks at 30 -- there's about 8 guys that are about the same caliber as your bottom four, some of which will likely be able to be had at 61.

 

I think a trade up or back are both very likely. Beane likes to move around to go get his guy, and has shown time and again that if he can't, he's open to moving back to draft value. While I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a risk on Oweh, if both he and Ossai are on the board at 30, it feels incredibly likely that we may take even a little less than fair value to move back a few spots where we could still get one of those guys...

 

I appreciate the OP's hard work and I think it's definitely a worthwhile thought exercise, but Beane just isn't the type of guy to let himself get stuck in a situation where he has to take a guy he doesn't like just because the board shakes out that way. He'll move up or back... 

If any of those players were the pick @30, it means that they like that particular player more than the others for one reason or another and don’t want to chance letting him go. If that’s the case I wouldn’t be upset. If the guy they pick turns out to be a good starter for the next 5-10 seasons, no one will talking about if they’re worth it or not. It’s worth it.  
 

that’s said, if there isnt one guy that stands out and they’d would be happy with a handful of corners, trade down or draft a different position.  

[glazeduck]

Just now, NewEra said:

If any of those players were the pick @30, it means that they like that particular player more than the others for one reason or another and don’t want to chance letting him go. If that’s the case I wouldn’t be upset. If the guy they pick turns out to be a good starter for the next 5-10 seasons, no one will talking about if they’re worth it or not. It’s worth it.  
 

that’s said, if there isnt one guy that stands out and they’d would be happy with a handful of corners, trade down or draft a different position.  

Yeah I obviously don't have their board, but it really feels like a Melifonwu or Campbell type at 30 would be a pretty massive reach to my own eyes. I'm with you on trusting their evaluations and if it works out it'll ultimately be moot, but that reach feeling feels twice as cringe-worthy when you consider the pool of talent at that position (again, to my eyes)... 

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah I obviously don't have their board, but it really feels like a Melifonwu or Campbell type at 30 would be a pretty massive reach to my own eyes. I'm with you on trusting their evaluations and if it works out it'll ultimately be moot, but that reach feeling feels twice as cringe-worthy when you consider the pool of talent at that position (again, to my eyes)... 

word.  

[scuba guy]

Thanks op

I think also what this shows is really how great the gm from the ravens was.

 

Newsome always picked late in the draft most years and hitting on your first pick that late in the draft is not as easy as it looks. STUDY YOUR FILM AND GO WITH YOU GUT FEELING. 

This is why Billy boy drafts really stink.

 

As others have said bean really needs to hit this draft most players drafted might not see the field much this year but are all about our future.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

So we are supposed to believe the Niners invested three 1st round picks in the 30th ranked prospect 

 

Don't believe it. Mac Jones is a smoke screen. They're taking either Fields or Lance. My money would be on Fields.

[K-9]

Yeoman’s work indeed. Well done. 

[Thurman#1]

Great post. Very thoughtful and a lot of effort.

 

One small quibble is that you say "I think it's safe to say the first 21 prospects will be gone, and you can throw in QB Jones for 22." I would disagree. There's often a guy or two who falls. At a guess, 20 of those 22 will almost surely be gone, but I wouldn't be any surer than that.

 

In any case, very interesting.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah I obviously don't have their board, but it really feels like a Melifonwu or Campbell type at 30 would be a pretty massive reach to my own eyes. I'm with you on trusting their evaluations and if it works out it'll ultimately be moot, but that reach feeling feels twice as cringe-worthy when you consider the pool of talent at that position (again, to my eyes)... 

 

I have Melifonwu as a mega reach at #30. It would genuinely be wall punching time. Campbell would be a reach but a less agregious one. 

[BornAgainBillsFan]

Nice job, TPS. You must've been off for Spring Break this week. 😉

 

[BillsFan1988]

11 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I've done similar research on multiple sites, and also done multiple draft mocks on both the Draft Network and Pro Football Focus.

Pretty much agree with your assessments.

 

Personally, I would like the Bills to select either an Edge Rusher or Cornerback with their first pick.

In every case, the Top 3 CBs are long-gone by #30.  And if one of the top DEs drops, it's usually Gregory Rousseau (who has dropped huge due to his red flags).

 

If I'm Brandon Beane, I think the best move would be to watch the board closely on draft night... then either jump up 5 slots or so to get a DE or CB that falls, OR trade back into the top of the 2nd Round and get someone like Asante Samuel Jr..  Then maybe do something similar to move higher with Pick #61, because we are in a similar predicament in that round (just out of reach of the best value guys).

 

Haven't we learned our lesson about the faller in the draft especially trading up for them. We traded up for Ford, Zay, Edmunds &  Moss everyone Beane trades up for hasn't been worth it except for Allen thankfully but he wasn't considered a faller at that point. 

 

Edmunds has made the pro bowl twice he's not a bust but he wasn't worth moving up for in a strong draft for Lbers both Leonard & Warner are much better players then Edmunds and I believe Leonard went in the 2nd rd and Warner in the 3rd . We gave up a 3rd to get Edmunds only to use him at the wrong position he should be a SAM linebacker he doesn't seem to have the instinct to play in the middle always seems like he's a step behind . I really hope this yr he finally figures it out and becomes a beast but as of right now he's the Donte Witner of Lbers. 

 

I'm on team go pure BPA or trade bk no player in this draft is worth trading up for in my opinion especially since the 2nd threw 5th rd seem like there loaded . I'm also not a fan of drafting for need that always seems to backfire more times then not. 

[AmishRifle]

Thank you for this @TPS!  I hope Mr Beane has some pre-draft trade agreements worked out.  If the stats are identifying the tiers correctly Beane may have a tough time trading down to get value.  The more posts I see on the draft the more convinced I become that we’re drafting a CB in round one.  The EDGE just won’t be there.

Edited April 9, 2021 by AmishRifle
Missed a word

[BillsFan1988]

8 hours ago, scuba guy said:

Thanks op

I think also what this shows is really how great the gm from the ravens was.

 

Newsome always picked late in the draft most years and hitting on your first pick that late in the draft is not as easy as it looks. STUDY YOUR FILM AND GO WITH YOU GUT FEELING. 

This is why Billy boy drafts really stink.

 

As others have said bean really needs to hit this draft most players drafted might not see the field much this year but are all about our future.

Eric DeCosta is a great GM also. He's worked with Newsome the whole time and has taken over and not skipped a beat.