NY Times cites report saying NFL games with fans caused COVID spikes

[Cheektowaga Chad]

So they are saying its the games themselves that caused the spike?

 

Cities that allowed larger number of fans were also more "open", wouldn't/couldn't that be just as much of the cause. More bars more parties more gatherings

 

Feel like they picked the NFL games to avoid having to say an open economy was the reason for the spike

 

[Rochesterfan]

30 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

So they are saying its the games themselves that caused the spike?

 

Cities that allowed larger number of fans were also more "open", wouldn't/couldn't that be just as much of the cause. More bars more parties more gatherings

 

Feel like they picked the NFL games to avoid having to say an open economy was the reason for the spike

 

 

Sorry - that is not at all what they are saying.

 

The study looked at increases seen 2-3 weeks after the game in the community and compared that rate to the same time frame in areas outside of the surrounding stadium as a control.  They did not look at numbers and say because this is an NFL city with a game we saw larger numbers.

 

They study is also not saying the game caused the spike they did not come to that conclusion at all because the available data to show causation is not available.

 

What they stated was when looking at the positivity rate in the NFL city and near surrounding areas - where the staff, local workers, and majority of the fans are - they compared the changed rate compared to areas outside the surrounding area.  
 

What was noted was that the area around the stadiums that allowed >5000 fans saw an average larger uptick in the positivity rate 2-3 weeks after the game than either other cities that did not allow fans or the surround areas farther away from the stadium.  Those increased rates were not there when games without fans were played or the games were on the road.

 

They made a conscious effort to not blame the games as the spread could of been caused (as they state) in pre and post game activity.  The area saw a larger increase in people gathering - dinners, tailgating in some cases, hotel stays, bars, use of Uber, use of GrubHub, etc and the link to the increase could just as easily be caused by those variables.  The epicenter of the increase was the fans gathering for the game and the link was pretty much undeniable, but the Research team from Alabama was very careful to state they have no way of knowing where the community spread occurred- only that the pattern was repeated over and over - those NFL communities that allowed large number of fans saw these episodic rises that corresponded to the games that were not present at other times.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, SDS said:

Florida’s seven day average has been increasing since March 17 and is still twice as high as it was last October.

It's ticked up a bit but is still less then a third what it was in December/January.

 

 

[SDS]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

It's ticked up a bit but is still less then a third what it was in December/January.

 

 

it’s 25% higher than it was three weeks ago and going up. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

it’s 25% higher than it was three weeks ago and going up. 

Quoting % increases from smaller numbers is disingenuous. 

 

And starting with the onset of February winter breaks in the north central and north eastern USA to the National Spring Breaks of March/April there has been a massive flow of tourists to Florida.   That Florida isn't seeing a bigger jump in cases is actually reassuring. 

 

Worst case scenario is full herd immunity by early September best case scenario will have us at herd immunity by July 4.  Either way we'll be seeing packed, rocking stadiums for the NFL's opening week.  Anything else would b going against the science.

 

 

[Governor]

36 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Quoting % increases from smaller numbers is disingenuous. 

 

And starting with the onset of February winter breaks in the north central and north eastern USA to the National Spring Breaks of March/April there has been a massive flow of tourists to Florida.   That Florida isn't seeing a bigger jump in cases is actually reassuring. 

 

Worst case scenario is full herd immunity by early September best case scenario will have us at herd immunity by July 4.  Either way we'll be seeing packed, rocking stadiums for the NFL's opening week.  Anything else would b going against the science.

 

 

It’s the 4th worst state right now. Florida will likely be the last state to fully recover. 
 

https://www.eatthis.com/news-states-concerning-covid-spikes-experts/

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by The Governor

[Southern_Bills]

I hope it's packed stadiums, if the vaccination is available (and it works) I don't see any reason not to. Everyone will have the opportunity to get the Vax by then if they choose to, if not that's on them.

 

 

[Governor]

I got my 2nd dose today so I’m ready to purchase tickets from unvaccinated people that won’t be able to attend. Woohoo!

 

The side-effects were pretty minimal. It was totally worth the gamble. I think I can cover up this horn-like growth protruding from my head with a large fedora. 
 

I’ll see you at the “stadium.”

 

 

[RiotAct]

10 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:

I hope it's packed stadiums, if the vaccination is available (and it works) I don't see any reason not to. Everyone will have the opportunity to get the Vax by then if they choose to, if not that's on them.

 

 

Yep.  This.  People are greatly overthinking things when it comes to what the landscape should look like later this summer.

[CincyBillsFan]

11 hours ago, The Governor said:

It’s the 4th worst state right now. Florida will likely be the last state to fully recover. 
 

https://www.eatthis.com/news-states-concerning-covid-spikes-experts/

 

 

I hate the Dolphins as much as the next Bills fan but this isn't accurate.  Going by deaths per one million citizens, Florida is in the lower half of US states (#23).  That means 27 states have a higher death rate then Florida.  And given Florida's age demographics and the constant flow of millions of tourists into the state this is an extraordinarily low covid death rate.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

In fact seems to me that the two states that take the prize for getting hit the hardest by covid are New York & New Jersey:

 

Deaths per million

Florida = 1579

New York = 2631

New Jersey = 2790

 

Wow, it's not even close.

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, The Governor said:

I worked in politics long enough to notice when someone just moved the goalposts. Now we’re talking about death rate? Lol.

I'm sure this discussion is about to be squelched, probably as it should be on a Bills message board.  But:

 

*  I've worked in science long enough to recognize when someone doesn't know that the hell they're talking about in science

 

*  and DEATH RATE is really the most important parameter, no?  After that it's ICU rate, then hospitalization rate and finally cases.  Not sure how you can call that moving the goal posts. 

[Governor]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm sure this discussion is about to be squelched, probably as it should be on a Bills message board.  But:

 

*  I've worked in science long enough to recognize when someone doesn't know that the hell they're talking about in science

 

*  and DEATH RATE is really the most important parameter, no?  After that it's ICU rate, then hospitalization rate and finally cases.  Not sure how you can call that moving the goal posts. 

That was a nice try tho......rookie!

[Southern_Bills]

1 minute ago, The Governor said:

That was a nice try tho......rookie!

 

That's something you say after you disprove a statement/theory...what did you disprove?

[Governor]

13 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

That's something you say after you disprove a statement/theory...what did you disprove?

 

it’s amazing to me that folks are still trying to defend Florida. This is a state that just spent 10 out of last 12 months purposely testing as few people as possible each day to keep case numbers down.

 

Now that the stimulus passed, which includes money for testing, it’s no surprise at all that their numbers are going through the roof. It’s about to get a whole lot worse too!

[Southern_Bills]

Just now, The Governor said:

 

it’s amazing to me that folks are still trying to defend Florida. This is a state that just spent 10 out of last 12 months purposely testing as few people as possible each day to keep case numbers down.

 

Now that the stimulus passed, which includes money for testing, it’s no surprise at all that their numbers are going through the roof. It’s about to get a whole lot worse too!

 

As someone who lives in the south alabama coastal Beach area, 20 minutes from Florida which I'm in constantly, I promise you it is no where near the badlands post apocalyptic landfill people think it is lol.

 

Life is moving along just fine.

[Governor]

15 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

As someone who lives in the south alabama coastal Beach area, 20 minutes from Florida which I'm in constantly, I promise you it is no where near the badlands post apocalyptic landfill people think it is lol.

 

Life is moving along just fine.

Truth is, we really have no idea how bad Florida is right now. With how they behaved over the last year, decreasing testing, changing how cases and hospitalizations are counted, changing or not providing “cause of death”, there’s no way for anyone to really know.

 

All that we know is that it isn’t good at all.

[CincyBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, The Governor said:

 

it’s amazing to me that folks are still trying to defend Florida. This is a state that just spent 10 out of last 12 months purposely testing as few people as possible each day to keep case numbers down.

 

Now that the stimulus passed, which includes money for testing, it’s no surprise at all that their numbers are going through the roof. It’s about to get a whole lot worse too!

 

Now I get why you want to ignore deaths and focus on cases!

 

And inadvertently you just told us why tracking cases is not the best approach to judging how the pandemic is playing out.  And this is because case numbers can be impacted by non-covid factors like testing frequency; testing sensitivity (it can be adjusted) and who you test. 

 

Deaths are a little more permanent and less easily manipulated.

 

 

[Southern_Bills]

Just now, The Governor said:

Truth is, we really have no idea how bad Florida is right now. With how they behaved over the last year, decreasing testing, changing how cases and hospitalizations are counted, changing or not providing “cause of death”, there’s no way for anyone to really know.

 

All that we know is that it isn’t good at all.

 

Well, I don't do studies and I won't pretend to know them. I'm in Florida,  everything is fine. My wife is in the medical field, if you need an ICU bed you can get one, guaranteed. 

 

This is real life experience in Florida, I'm sure you can find a study that can lead you wherever you want to go with some arbitrary number and a clear path to where you want to get to.

 

In real life though, everything is fine. We don't even wear masks or social distance. I get it not everyone agrees and I'm not speaking ill of you if you do those things.

[Demongyz]

I hate the Dolphins too!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

As @SDS said up-thread, if this thread couldn't stay focused narrowly on the study and what it might mean for football attendance this fall, it would be closed.

 

Well Hey, Ya'll,  Guess What.  I 'bout sprained my thumb pulling out off topic posts then I gave up.

 

It was a good experiment to see if we could discuss Covid stuff in the context of a relevant football issue without it spiraling out of control. Now we know, I guess.