NY Times cites report saying NFL games with fans caused COVID spikes

[Man with No Name]

what are the numbers? what is a "spike" 

[Malazan]

20 minutes ago, Man with No Name said:

what are the numbers? what is a "spike" 

 

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=327083003119119021020026096024030107058015032006043044006026050102016000033029118015119042029028000073030064075080099119090119033108100091039033098098122121071099073077013071083004092095089002027021002106031083075105089006016086126001080005017122097125113121097095030081005120023029065071000&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE

[Boxcar]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

The “big deal” is that the increase infection rate was not necessarily the people that choose to go to the game and accept the risk.  The increased rate was in the surrounding community.  The study does not make a conclusion that people at the game necessarily spread the infection amongst themselves.  The conclusion was the gatherings lead to more people in the area: potential waiters/bar workers, grocery store clerks, security, testing personnel, hotel workers, Uber drivers, food delivery (Grub Hub), parking attendants, concession workers and vendors, etc. - all were part of the contact tracing and the gathering of >5000 fans saw this group of people infected more frequently than when no fans were present.

 

The people at the game chose to go and accepted the risk - the others impacted were just doing their job, but their job put them in higher contact with people that chose to go and did it without their choice or acceptance.  They did it because they lived paycheck to paycheck and had to go to work.

 

If the entire increase had just been confined to those that chose to go - then you are correct, but the issue is the collateral people impacted and then the secondary and tertiary people infected by them.

 

The study is dumb because the findings were fairly easy to know before hand as any large gathering be it riots, political gatherings, or routine things like birthday, weddings, and funerals- all showed increase spread, but it needed to be done to confirm the thoughts and see - could large outdoor gatherings of fans really not lead to increased community spread.

 

Bit misleading. I'd put all my chips on spread happening in the concourse, rest rooms, in line for food. How much spread there was, not sure. How many people died because of it, not sure. It's a scare tactic to keep people in line. For some reason, they really find the journey towards normalcy appalling.

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

 

Bit misleading. I'd put all my chips on spread happening in the concourse, rest rooms, in line for food. How much spread there was, not sure. How many people died because of it, not sure. It's a scare tactic to keep people in line. For some reason, they really find the journey towards normalcy appalling.

 

The issue is that the study purposefully says none of that.  It goes so far as to say they can not even conclude that the spread occurred within the stadium and did not rule out the pre and post game activities.  They also specifically call out that the mortality rate although increased is very difficult to pin to specific dates due to the fact that those rates are not consistent to infection date.  Some increases in mortality are seen at 3-4 weeks and other times it is 5-6 weeks or more.

 

I do not read it as a scare tactic or to try and get people in line.  The researchers were looking into the gatherings and looking for trends and the trends were fairly limited and obvious.  You have large groups coming together - you saw more spread.

 
 

 

[Just in Atlanta]

From the source study:

"... games that had over 20,000 fans in attendance generated significantly greater spikes in the case count/rate for the county in which games took place within the 21-day window ... In this latter scenario, in counties where teams had 20,000 fans in attendance, there was 2.23 times the rate of spikes in COVID-19 compared to all other teams."

 

We've also seen studies, including in NY, that concluded that 15k or so fans socially distanced in outdoor stadiums were safe. The problem is, as many have pointed out, what comes before and next - whether it's 5k or 25k.

One has to be pretty dense not to expect a spike in a state like Florida after a Super Bowl in which the home team won.

 

I think the NFL did an amazing job last season - protecting players and fans and allowing teams to decide. 

 

On a bigger note, we'll have more emergencies, scares and pandemics likely in our increasingly inter-connected (globalized) world. At some point, we have to live our lives. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Gordio said:

No they weren't.  That is not even debatable.  

 

Agree.

👀

Wait, what just happened?

[Gordio]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Agree.

👀

Wait, what just happened?

 

 

Haha, the world is coming to an end as we know it!

[Governor]

Is there a breakdown as to which games were the worst and where?

 

I can’t really take any Florida numbers seriously since they’ve been lying/hiding their cases the entire time. They also decreased their testing throughout the year.

[Rock'em Sock'em]

18 hours ago, MPL said:

Just out of curiosity... does your statistic that 90% of statistics are completely made up fall into the completely made up category?

My statistic is one of the 90% for sure.

[transient]

14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

also the ever true reality that we are guests in SDS’s house and were never guaranteed any semblance of perfect consistency - so no need to argue with your take here.
 

its a pretty reasonable bend, if a bend at all, and no ones forcing anyone into the thread.

 

not to get too far off the topic but I think it’s a good occasional reminder to let some of the entitlement go and just enjoy this for what it is and sidestep what you don’t like.

If I let go of my sense of entitlement all I'll have is my seething anger towards anyone who doesn't share my opinion... CHALLENGE ACCEPTED!!

[CincyBillsFan]

The best thing for society is to return to normal ASAP.  That was the position of Dr. Henderson the former CDC head and the man credited with eradicating small pox. His greatest fear was the collateral damage unleashed by over zealously shutting down society and altering normal human behavior through social distancing & community mask wearing.

 

The fact is that a combination of those naturally infected and those who will have received the vaccine by September 1 is almost certain to lead to effective herd immunity.

 

For this reason we should have full stadiums for the NFL 2021 season. 

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

23 hours ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/sports/football/nfl-stadium-capacity-covid.html

 

 

It’s the New York Times consider the source 

3 hours ago, The Governor said:

Is there a breakdown as to which games were the worst and where?

 

I can’t really take any Florida numbers seriously since they’ve been lying/hiding their cases the entire time. They also decreased their testing throughout the year.

And New York hasn’t? 

[Reed83HOF]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The NFL is planning full capacity too

 

I'm pretty sure science is the same down South.

 

I will not make fun of southerners

 

I will not make fun of southerners

 

I will not make....

[CincyBillsFan]

I found this to be useful and provide reason for optimism.  It tracks daily vaccinations not only in the USA but in each state.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state

 

They set the herd immunity threshold at between 70% - 85% vaccinated.  There is a nice graph that has the dates when we reach these milestones - 70% in early August and 85% is by mid September.  For the record this seems like they set the bar to high as they don't include those naturally infected. 

 

Bottom line though is that the stadiums should be full and rocking for opening week in 2021.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’m open to trading Josh to a deep red state like Louisiana and the Saints who are probably more in line with his values anyway 

I'm thinking Miami would be a better fit.  Florida has totally reopened and the number of cases have plummeted from their high in January.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm thinking Miami would be a better fit.  Florida has totally reopened and the number of cases have plummeted from their high in January.

 

 

A Bills Dolphins trade hmm we get a bunch of number ones and Tua ...  the Fins get the best QB they’ve had since Dan Marino I like it! 

[SDS]

8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm thinking Miami would be a better fit.  Florida has totally reopened and the number of cases have plummeted from their high in January.

 

 

Florida’s seven day average has been increasing since March 17 and is still twice as high as it was last October.

[RiotAct]

16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’m open to trading Josh to a deep red state like Louisiana and the Saints who are probably more in line with his values anyway 

it’s pretty much a slam dunk at this point...

[Billzgobowlin]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure that's a great analogy. 

 

There are specific behaviors that are pretty well established to make driving your car more risky - driving while under the influence, driving while excessively fatigued, excessive speed for the road conditions, and so forth.  You can do a lot of driving outside a bubble without getting into the riskier behaviors.

 

For an airborne contagious disease, there are pretty well-established risk factors.   Indoors > Outdoors, duration of event, size of gathering with larger > smaller.  

 

You can do a lot of living outside a bubble without getting into the riskier aspects in the face of an airborne contagious disease, just as you can do a lot of driving.

 

I think it's an interesting study that they could identify a spike in the communities.  Conclusive, no.

 

The authors acknowledge a valid point that they can't tell it was the game per se or behaviors around the game (gathering pre-game for food and drinks etc).  If good enough quality contact tracing were available, I think it would be interesting to compare infection rates in Buffalo in the people who attended large outdoor "watch events" that were set up by various restaurant districts vs. the people who went to the game, and were required to be tested beforehand and masked. 

 

My guess would be that the pre-game testing made a big difference to safety, but I don't know.  The dog thing intrigues me  - that dogs can be trained to detect covid-19.  It would be pretty cool if people could be screened on entry by something super-quick like dogs and those "flagged" given a backup rapid test.

 

I'd like to hope it will all be a moot point by September because enough people will be vaccinated to cut transmission rates way down, but who knows?

I think it's a perfect analogy because as you don't know who is impaired while driving around you, you don't know who is sick.  You have to live your life even when risks are around you.  How much you want to limit your risks is how little you want to live your life.  I prefer to not take crazy risks but I also understand you can not fully be kept away from harm if you walk outside your home

[78thealltimegreat]

12 minutes ago, SDS said:

Florida’s seven day average has been increasing since March 17 and is still twice as high as it was last October.

Awesome Miami will give us a bunch of ones for Josh it will be so great 

12 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

it’s pretty much a slam dunk at this point...

I agree Saints give Buffalo 3 number ones and Mr Winston and the Bills give them Josh...now we have that Mitchell vs Jamies QB duel everyone was counting on for the starter spot 👍