Draft trade thought -- complete & total "what if"

[jletha]

30 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Just seems like we would have a better team all around if we just kept Edmunds, traded down and took Freiermuth. Think Freiermuth will be a solid starter as I also think Hunter Long may be a decent target at 61. Once again, are you willing to give up so much for maybe a modest difference in production? Makes no sense to me.

I think most would disagree about the "modest difference in production" assessment. Analysis of Pitts is as arguably the best TE prospect ever.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I understand you, many don’t realize how good Pitts is, but even with that in perspective, how good is he? 70 catches? 80? Or more? Freiermuth can probably get you 50 perhaps.. So 50 catches + a very decent MLB and extra draft picks or Kyle Pitts? In order for your trade to be worth it Pitts would have to be the best TE in the league. 80, 90, 100 catches year in, year out minimum.

 

So I think Pitts can be the best tight end in the league he has that sort of ceiling. But even then I am not sure that trade is worth it.

[glazeduck]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think Pitts can be the best tight end in the league he has that sort of ceiling. But even then I am not sure that trade is worth it.

To me its about what Pitts does to the rest of the offense as much as what he'd contribute as a stat line: 

• He's a redzone monster -- keeps Allen healthier, more 7s/fewer 3s, allows the defense to play differently
• He's a seam stretcher -- improves the run game by forcing Ss and LBs to key on him, opens up lanes for the slot receiver which according to many is such an important position in this offense (bonus, more running lanes for Josh, likely)
• He's a mismatch between the 20s (and everywhere, really) -- who do you roll coverage to? The 6'5 TE with a massive wingspan and elite speed? Or Stephon Diggs? His versatility and mismatchability opens up the playbook even further

To me he's a "rises all boats" player. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

To me its about what Pitts does to the rest of the offense as much as what he'd contribute as a stat line: 

• He's a redzone monster -- keeps Allen healthier, more 7s/fewer 3s, allows the defense to play differently
• He's a seam stretcher -- improves the run game by forcing Ss and LBs to key on him, opens up lanes for the slot receiver which according to many is such an important position in this offense (bonus, more running lanes for Josh, likely)
• He's a mismatch between the 20s (and everywhere, really) -- who do you roll coverage to? The 6'5 TE with a massive wingspan and elite speed? Or Stephon Diggs? His versatility and mismatchability opens up the playbook even further

To me he's a "rises all boats" player. 

 

I agree with all of that, but the price is still too rich for me. 

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with all of that, but the price is still too rich for me. 

Totally fair. It's all make believe anyway. I just think you can replace 80% or more of Tremaine pretty easily (and going forward) more affordably, and what Pitts would bring to the offense is basically an incalculable difference to what Knox brings...

[ghostwriter]

52 minutes ago, jletha said:

I think most would disagree about the "modest difference in production" assessment. Analysis of Pitts is as arguably the best TE prospect ever.

There’s no doubt he’s incredible, no doubt. From what I’ve seen the kid is downright amazing but in order for a trade up to be worth it, he would have to be the best TE in the NFL. Seems like a pretty slim margin to be banking on. Even if he is a 60, 70 catch guy he would be a huge disappointment in relation to the amount of capital spent to move up and get him.

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think Pitts can be the best tight end in the league he has that sort of ceiling. But even then I am not sure that trade is worth it.

I do too. Too steep. Very nice prospect though but once again, he has to be the best TE in the NFL for it to be worth it. Even if he’s just “good”, that’s not good enough. He needs to be the Michael Jordan of TEs.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think Pitts can be the best tight end in the league he has that sort of ceiling. But even then I am not sure that trade is worth it.

He’s absolutely worth it, but Beane would be talking to a dial tone as soon as he offered it.  Even throwing in next year’s first wouldn’t get it done.  It’s a bigger move than KC made to get Buffalo’s 10th pick.  No GM would ever take Edmunds over a third rounder and next year’s first.  Edmunds might be worth a third to the right team, so that leaves a lot of work left to be done.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

He’s absolutely worth it, but Beane would be talking to a dial tone as soon as he offered it.  Even throwing in next year’s first wouldn’t get it done.  It’s a bigger move than KC made to get Buffalo’s 10th pick.  No GM would ever take Edmunds over a third rounder and next year’s first.  Edmunds might be worth a third to the right team, so that leaves a lot of work left to be done.

 

I agree the deal on offer in the premise of this thread wouldn't get it done and what it would take to get it done is too rich for my money.

[Billl]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree the deal on offer in the premise of this thread wouldn't get it done and what it would take to get it done is too rich for my money.

TE is such a weird position.  Gronk, Kelce, and Kittle were all day 3 picks.  For whatever reason, it’s a really hard position to project.  For a TE to be worth a top 10 pick, he’d have to be a top 5 guy in the league at minimum.  I think he will, but there isn’t anything remotely resembling a guarantee of that.

[Just Joshin']

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is never happening. Pitts might be the best player in the entire draft, QBs included and has been said to be the highest graded TE Prospect ever. He isn't making it out of the top 5 and a team might trade up for him.

Spot on.  Pitts will not make it to 10.  This is place a huge bet certainty.

 

Try to be at least probable when making these types of trades.

[BillsFanForever19]

Before I clicked the link I thought "bet this is about Pitts". Not going to happen. He won't make it to 10. Even if he did - you're not giving up what it would cost to move from 30 to 10 for a Tight End. I don't care what kind of prospect he is. 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Before I clicked the link I thought "bet this is about Pitts". Not going to happen. He won't make it to 10. Even if he did - you're not giving up what it would cost to move from 30 to 10 for a Tight End. I don't care what kind of prospect he is. 

 

But,,,but...but the Bills got to find a player to take away catches from Diggs/Beasley and the rest!

 

Come on, hear him out.  I'm sure you can find a replacement at MLB in the later rounds.

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, glazeduck said:

I'm very much not that guy. I think Tre can still be special and have said as much on this board numerous times. BUT, he's going to start getting expensive, and Kyle Pitts is equally, if not even more special. 

If we can get Pitts and replace Edmunds with a serviceable replacement at a lower cost, that's a win to me.

I'm fairly certain this isn't even the first time you've made that joke lol

What happens to Dawson Knox??👀

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well take it from someone who didn't have any of those as true first round grades (I had Hock as a borderline) Kyle Pitts is in a different stratosphere to those guys. He is the best tight end I have ever watched college film on. I have only ever given one tight end a first round grade before (David Njoku who has also been inconsistent and hurt a lot) but Pitts grades way higher even than Njoku. Does that mean there is no chance he is a bust? Nope. But unlike Howard and Hockenson and Ebron the hype for Pitts is fully justified. 

 

Not that I am advocating trading into the top 10 for a tight end. Not at all. I wouldn't do that. But if the Bills were in the top 6 this year and in a position to pick Pitts I would be in favour of it despite being generally against tight ends in the first. Every now and again a player comes along who is special enough to bend the rules. 

 

I would 100000% love to get Pitts and would absolutely draft him if we were in the top 10.  But I just cant see trading a first and a young 2x pro bowl LB to move up for a TE.  Especially since Ive seen so many of these big time TE prospects that just don't live up to expectations.  But all that being said, I am on the same page with you on Pitts, he looks like the real deal.  

 

Still...Ive thought that before about certain TE's and it just never comes together while I watch the NFL elite come in to the NFL rounds 2 through 5.  So I am not keen on trading away Edmunds to get up to get Pitts.  I would be totally fine Beane trading draft assets to get Pitts, just not our first and Edmunds.

[Rochesterfan]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would 100000% love to get Pitts and would absolutely draft him if we were in the top 10.  But I just cant see trading a first and a young 2x pro bowl LB to move up for a TE.  Especially since Ive seen so many of these big time TE prospects that just don't live up to expectations.  But all that being said, I am on the same page with you on Pitts, he looks like the real deal.  

 

Still...Ive thought that before about certain TE's and it just never comes together while I watch the NFL elite come in to the NFL rounds 2 through 5.  So I am not keen on trading away Edmunds to get up to get Pitts.  I would be totally fine Beane trading draft assets to get Pitts, just not our first and Edmunds.

 

I totally agree.  If you include Waller as a 6th round pick there are way more late round successful TEs than 1st round.  
 

The top 1st round guys are right in the middle of the pack - indistinguishable from a ton of other players.

 

Additional most/all of the TEs took 2-4 years to start producing above average numbers and struggled in year 1.

 

To me Pitts would be a long term add - if you could get him, but you are losing way to much for a guy that history tells us would come in and do little in year 1 and history has also shown that he will probably end up in a pack with 15-20 other TEs for production.

 

He could break that trend, but I would not bet multiple picks and a ProBowl player on that.

[jletha]

14 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

There’s no doubt he’s incredible, no doubt. From what I’ve seen the kid is downright amazing but in order for a trade up to be worth it, he would have to be the best TE in the NFL. Seems like a pretty slim margin to be banking on. Even if he is a 60, 70 catch guy he would be a huge disappointment in relation to the amount of capital spent to move up and get him.

I do too. Too steep. Very nice prospect though but once again, he has to be the best TE in the NFL for it to be worth it. Even if he’s just “good”, that’s not good enough. He needs to be the Michael Jordan of TEs.

For the trade to be worth it he doesnt have to be the best TE in the league, he just has to contribute to us winning a SB. I think he can do that.

[mjt328]

I don't think people understand how early Kyle Pitts is going to be drafted. 

I also don't think they understand how much draft capitol it will cost to get that high.

 

We all know the Top 3 picks are going to be QBs.  That much is certain.

But the next team is Atlanta.  They already have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (so Jamar Chase is highly unlikely).  They already have Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary (so Penei Sewell does not meet a big need).  Getting rid of Matt Ryan before 2023 would cost them over $40 million in dead cap (so I think the QB talk for them is a smokescreen).  None of the defensive prospects are worthy of going that high.  If the Falcons don't trade down, I think Pitts goes to them at #4.

 

Look at how much the 49ers had to trade to get from #12 to #3.

They gave up their 2022 first rounder, 2023 first rounder and 2021 third rounder.  And yet there are people on this board who think we can package Tremaine Edmunds (just before we need to make a financial commitment to him) and a couple mid-round choices this year to move up 26 spots.  In reality, we would be talking about mortgaging pretty much every 1st/2nd Round Pick for the next three drafts to get there.  I don't care how good people think Pitts is going to be.  If Beane sold the team's draft future for a Tight End (when we already have the #2 scoring and yardage offense in the NFL), it would possibly be the WORST move in the history of the franchise.

 

[4merper4mer]

17 hours ago, Estro said:

I like you're idea.

 

I'm not a huge Edmunds fan & with the Mariano resigning I'd be fine if Edmunds is eventually replaced on this roster.  That said I think the guy the Bills might covet in a trade up would be.......

 

Jaylen Waddle.  They've seen firsthand what a speed merchant, who can score anytime he touches the ball is like to defend in Tyreek Hill and I think they'd like to have their own version of that in Buffalo.  

 

I'm never an advocate of teasing up, in fact I usually favor the opposite, but your sentiment about this regime is right.......I don't think the idea can be ruled out with this regime.  If Waddle did slip into the mid teens, which I highly doubt, the Bills would have a chance with #30 & #62.  

We should play Enter Sandman when Mariano comes in the game.  It will mess with the other team’s psyche.

 

Oh wait, never mind, he resigned.

[BuffaloRebound]

I’m not a huge fan of Edmunds, but I do realize the guy would have a ton of value in a trade.  I hate the argument about how young he is but there’s still some truth in it.  You could make an argument that Edmunds would be the highest rated defender in this draft.  If Jerruh wants to give us pick 10 straight up for Edmunds, I’d consider it if Pitts were available but not if I have to give Dallas something back. 

[H2o]

Any thread that starts out with the ole "Hear me out....." is destined to be a gem.