Who is the one player you DON’T want the Bills to draft @30

[Floydboy12]

Etienne. Nice player I’m sure but would give me Spiller flashbacks 

[Monty98]

51 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I'd be wary of players that held out and didn't look REALLY impressive in their pro days. Rousseau stands out there to me.

 

Guys with little to no production scare me too -- count me out on Oweh (though if we traded down... I'd be tempted)

I think you avoid drafting players early in deep positions -- that rules out most WRs to me.

 

Given our window, I'm also looking for a guy that can have a more or less immediate impact on the depth chart: that seems to rule out OT, WR, QB, DT, LB and S and highlight TE, CB and RB (though most TEs don't typically do much their first year or two).

 

I'd also make sure draft grade matches value there -- at 30, I'm not seeing a lot of interesting DTs -- even Barmore feels like he's probably "worth" a mid-2nd (probably will go before that, but value doesn't match need for the pick for me)

 

Rousseau isn't going to stand out athletic wise. But in his redshirt sophomore year he was right behind Chase Young in sacks and only started 6 games. He's not a pure pass rush player, he's a collapse the pocket like Cam Jordan and stop the run on the edge. If he drops to 30 we should be excited.

 

As for who to avoid at 30, for me its Eric Stokes. Wasn't even the best CB on the Georgia roster. That was Tyson Campbell and their second best transferred out

Edited April 5, 2021 by Monty98
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[Billl]

21 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

IMO, impactful type players can be had later in the draft. There are current “impactful” NFL players that were acquired after round one. It doesn’t hurt to have more tries at the prize 

That makes sense, but there are only so many roster spots available.  Beane has done a really good job of assembling a roster that could line up and play today.  If there has ever been a time when you would be better off sacrificing quantity for quality by trading up for one or two prized targets, this would be it.

[glazeduck]

13 minutes ago, Monty98 said:

 

Rousseau isn't going to stand out athletic wise. But in his redshirt sophomore year he was right behind Chase Young in sacks and only started 6 games. He's not a pure pass rush player, he's a collapse the pocket like Cam Jordan and stop the run on the edge. If he drops to 30 we should be excited.

I agree with all of this, I think there could be a special player inside Rousseau. The reason I'm not taking him at 30 though, is -- as an opt out -- I have 0 level of comfort around what he's been doing for the last year. Combine/pro day tests are not hard to "study for". That's not to say they're easy, but looking at a guy like Simi Fehoko, who on tape looks like a mid 4.7s guy run a sub 4.4 40, and it's obviously that gains can be made by training for them.

 

It's certainly possible that Rousseau spent the entire year working on becoming a better defensive end -- the combine drills definitely don't dictate professional success -- but the problem is I have no way of knowing or verifying any of that. I don't have game tape from him for the past year, because he didn't play so I also know that he didn't practice in a team setting. The only reliable "test" I have to go by to vouch for his dedication to his career as a pro football player is these underwear workouts and he flunked them. That, to me, is a big red flag. What kind of discipline does this kid have away from football? Is he simply a guy that's always succeeded by being bigger than the other guy (I can't stand Colin Cowherd in general but am a big believer in his JaMarcus Russell theory -- there are just some people who will always be bigger than everyone they're playing against, and because of that, often have less drive/discipline to be great)? I just don't know.

 

If his agent comes out before the draft with workout tapes of him working his butt off every day from opting out until now, learning the nuances of being a complete DE, I'd probably change my tune, but I'd need to see something pretty compelling to dissuade me from being pretty disinterested in a guy who took a year off/had a year to train for it and completely tanked the one thing he had to show for the work he put in over the last year.

[wppete]

Justin Fields or Najee Harris... No thanks, completely over rated. 

[TailgateChef]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

Go back and look at the last 5 drafts.  DEs past the top 10 are a crapshoot.  About the same rate of success as any other round. 

Edge rushers taken around 30 in the past 5 drafts:

Yetur Gross-Matos 38th overall 2020, 2.5 career sacks

Montez Sweat 26th overall 2019, 16 career sacks

LJ Collier 29th overall 2019, 3 career sacks

Harold Landry 41st overall 2018, 19 career sacks

Takkarist McKinley 26th overall 2017, 17.5 career sacks

Taco Charlton 28th overall 2017, 11 career sacks

TJ Watt 30th overall 2017, 49.5 career sacks

Emmanuel Ogbah 32nd overall 2016, 27 career sacks

 

There's production there.  I challenge you to find the top 8 edge rushers of the last 5 drafts from rounds 3-7 to compare sack numbers.

If Beane goes that route, we just hope he identifies this year's Sweat or Watt.

 

 

[MrSarcasm]

Any RB before the 4th round. 

[Monty98]

21 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I agree with all of this, I think there could be a special player inside Rousseau. The reason I'm not taking him at 30 though, is -- as an opt out -- I have 0 level of comfort around what he's been doing for the last year. Combine/pro day tests are not hard to "study for". That's not to say they're easy, but looking at a guy like Simi Fehoko, who on tape looks like a mid 4.7s guy run a sub 4.4 40, and it's obviously that gains can be made by training for them.

 

It's certainly possible that Rousseau spent the entire year working on becoming a better defensive end -- the combine drills definitely don't dictate professional success -- but the problem is I have no way of knowing or verifying any of that. I don't have game tape from him for the past year, because he didn't play so I also know that he didn't practice in a team setting. The only reliable "test" I have to go by to vouch for his dedication to his career as a pro football player is these underwear workouts and he flunked them. That, to me, is a big red flag. What kind of discipline does this kid have away from football? Is he simply a guy that's always succeeded by being bigger than the other guy (I can't stand Colin Cowherd in general but am a big believer in his JaMarcus Russell theory -- there are just some people who will always be bigger than everyone they're playing against, and because of that, often have less drive/discipline to be great)? I just don't know.

 

If his agent comes out before the draft with workout tapes of him working his butt off every day from opting out until now, learning the nuances of being a complete DE, I'd probably change my tune, but I'd need to see something pretty compelling to dissuade me from being pretty disinterested in a guy who took a year off/had a year to train for it and completely tanked the one thing he had to show for the work he put in over the last year.

 

From what I heard he's been working out with the SC coach there and some camps. If you're comparing his testing to Phillips from Miami you're not getting a good comp. Phillips was the #1 player in his class and an OLB who converted to DE. His numbers are actually pretty good, a 4.7 at DE is great, but his 10 is more important. The bench is affected by his wing span, and his vert at 6'6 is scary. I think people thinking he's going to be like a Chase Young type are looking at him wrong, Phillips is more like Young

 

[YoloinOhio]

48 minutes ago, Billl said:

That makes sense, but there are only so many roster spots available.  Beane has done a really good job of assembling a roster that could line up and play today.  If there has ever been a time when you would be better off sacrificing quantity for quality by trading up for one or two prized targets, this would be it.

Nah. There are plenty of opportunities for rookies to make this team and play. IOL, CB, LB, WR, RB, DE, DT, TE...

[CaptnCoke11]

Oweh 

[whorlnut]

A defensive tackle or an edge that doesn’t have elite twitch and speed. We already drafted on of those last year...

[BillsfaninChicago]

Aaron Maybin

[Buffalo Boy]

    Four years ago, a bunch would have  said Josh Allen.....🤔

[warrior9]

ETN and Rousseau (sp?). 

 

Other than that. I mean, our starters are pretty set. We're really adding depth here at this point and I trust they'll get who they deem best fit for our team. I think we need most help at OG and DE(since our two starters are older).

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Any player that isn't a CB or RB.

 

Go back and look at the last 5 drafts.  DEs past the top 10 are a crapshoot.  About the same rate of success as any other round. 

 

Every other position won't result in immediate help, which I think we desperately need, with the lack of improvement we got from FA.

LOL.

 

I would say any player that IS a RB!

 

 

[Snowbowl]

Any player with a substantial injury history. Trust Beane to draft someone good at 30 if he doesn’t move out of it. Just wish the draft wasn’t so far off!

[whorlnut]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

    Four years ago, a bunch would have  said Josh Allen.....🤔

Maybe so, but we needed a qb. We don’t need to draft another DT, thus my response. We also don’t need another slow defensive end. 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Any player that isn't a CB or RB.

 

Go back and look at the last 5 drafts.  DEs past the top 10 are a crapshoot.  About the same rate of success as any other round. 

 

Every other position won't result in immediate help, which I think we desperately need, with the lack of improvement we got from FA.

Well I agree about CB and I think there is a large chance the Bills take one high. But I do not want to see a RB taken that high, personally.

[glazeduck]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

But I do not want to see a RB taken that high, personally.

Seen this sentiment several times in this thread...

 

In a vacuum I agree, but I also think this is playing with fire. The FA pool is pretty thin and/or old, and I count 6 guys in the draft who I think you can argue make an impact on this roster in the semi-immediate future, only 3 or 4 of which are more bellcow types. 

 

Additionally, you're looking at very likely the top 3 being gone by our 2nd round pick, maybe more... Just not a lot of wiggle room to get cute, or we'll end up back with Singletary and Moss, which to me is probably an even less exciting prospect than just taking Etienne or Harris in the first... 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Seen this sentiment several times in this thread...

 

In a vacuum I agree, but I also think this is playing with fire. The FA pool is pretty thin and/or old, and I count 6 guys in the draft who I think you can argue make an impact on this roster in the semi-immediate future, only 3 or 4 of which are more bellcow types. 

 

Additionally, you're looking at very likely the top 3 being gone by our 2nd round pick, maybe more... Just not a lot of wiggle room to get cute, or we'll end up back with Singletary and Moss, which to me is probably an even less exciting prospect than just taking Etienne or Harris in the first... 

if we take a RB in the 1st, I think that’s the front offices version of “going for it”.  Taking a RB in rd 1 likely means that we’ll have this rb for 4-5 years and he’ll be gone.  Harris or etienne would likely have a bigger impact on the 2021-2022 season than any other player we may draft.  
 

Just another way to try and win a title.  It’s not a science, there are several winning formulas