Draft Sleepers 2021

[glazeduck]

15 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He’s definitely a DAWG!! How fast is he? 

Not a blazer but fast enough. 
 

Ran mid 4.4s at his pro day but looks like he plays more like a 4.6ish guy. 
 

Not always the case but I think it’s fair to suggest he might get a little faster with pro training and likely will be able to improve his route running with pro coaching. 

[CNYfan]

What is the Board opinion on Matt Bushman - TE-BYU?

 

This is a an injury sleeper, that has me somewhat intrigued.   I do not watch significant college foot just read up draft prospects in March and April.

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

What is the Board opinion on Matt Bushman - TE-BYU?

 

This is a an injury sleeper, that has me somewhat intrigued.   I do not watch significant college foot just read up draft prospects in March and April.

I’ve read and watched next to nothing on him, so the following should be taken with a grain or more of salt...

 

He’s very likely a JAG. The logic being that this TE class is SO BAD that any option with any amount of potential would instantly stand out. Maybe a guy like that goes under the radar in a stacked class like this year’s WR class, but not when we’re talking about literally 5 viable guys (and I have reasonable doubts about 2 of those).

 

Time will tell, and I’m familiar with the injury situation, but probably not anyone I’d bet any meaningful amount of money on... 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

On 4/4/2021 at 11:57 AM, Blokestradamus said:

 

Brodarious Hamm should be in next year's class. I've already adopted him for my name team.

Dude should quit football, and open up a sub shop, featuring the Brodacious Ham Sammich...

 

Hey... It'll fly in New Jersey... 

Edited April 9, 2021 by ROCBillsBeliever

[Motorin']

6 hours ago, glazeduck said:

There's a bunch of late rd WRs who are interesting, but this guy has won my heart...

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/04/2021-nfl-draft-profile-wr-jonathan-adams-jr/

 

 

wow! 

 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He’s definitely a DAWG!! How fast is he? 

I believe he ran a 4.41ish.

 

his agility scores are similar to Orlando Brown. Not really but I think that’s why he will slip.  Would love to land Him in 6-7

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

wow! 

 

[eball]

Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

[ROCBillsBeliever]

On 4/4/2021 at 1:03 PM, Motorin' said:

Kyrsis Tonga, NT, BYU. Big powerful 1 tech. Can penetrate one on one, but will occupy double teams to keep lineman

 

Thanks for the tape, @Motorin'! Hadn't heard of Tonga, before, but he looks like Star on juice! I'd take a late round flier on him.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

 

My thinking is that they can't pay everyone and slot corner is a spot where you can find contributors for cheap on day 3 of the draft. Also Taron struggled greatly at the start of last season and was even benched at one point. He did play better down the stretch I am just not sold that they will see it as a sensible allocation of resources. 

[Bill from NYC]

Great post, and as you can guess I was happy to see the defensive backs on the list. It is of course possible to draft a good db in later rounds!  

 

This closest I can come to a sleeper from Alabama would be TE Miller Forristall.

 

The guy looks like a movie actor but fights like a tiger on every play. He sneaks his way open consistently, but of course a case could be made that teams were busy covering the superstars on the Tide offense. 

Miller is a GREAT blocker on running and passing downs and can play on special teams. 

He has played through some injuries and is a very smart kid.

 

I would place him in the 6th or 7th round, if not a UDFA.

 

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by Bill from NYC

[Paul Costa]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

Taron might have made the biggest play in franchise history 😲what play was bigger? Mike Stranton’s  hit? I was too young for that. Can you say one play in “the comeback “. Taron played well in the second half of the season. He’s going to be a big part of our success this year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, glazeduck said:

I’ve read and watched next to nothing on him, so the following should be taken with a grain or more of salt...

 

He’s very likely a JAG. The logic being that this TE class is SO BAD that any option with any amount of potential would instantly stand out. Maybe a guy like that goes under the radar in a stacked class like this year’s WR class, but not when we’re talking about literally 5 viable guys (and I have reasonable doubts about 2 of those).

 

Time will tell, and I’m familiar with the injury situation, but probably not anyone I’d bet any meaningful amount of money on... 

 

 

Eliminating players from consideration using that methodology is bad practice.  

 

It actually works both ways........in some seasons where the class is considered strong at a position.......players actually get moved up higher than they should on the assumption that it's just a great class..................the rising tide raises all ships.

 

In years where it's assumed there is no talent.........sometimes players get written down because of the perception of the class as a whole.

 

George Kittle is the best in the game........he didn't slip to the 5th round because he was in a great TE class...........he slipped because he was mis-evaluated.

 

That can happen in a good class or a bad one.     

[glazeduck]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Eliminating players from consideration using that methodology is bad practice.  

 

It actually works both ways........in some seasons where the class is considered strong at a position.......players actually get moved up higher than they should on the assumption that it's just a great class..................the rising tide raises all ships.

 

In years where it's assumed there is no talent.........sometimes players get written down because of the perception of the class as a whole.

 

George Kittle is the best in the game........he didn't slip to the 5th round because he was in a great TE class...........he slipped because he was mis-evaluated.

 

That can happen in a good class or a bad one.     

Agree to disagree on just about all of this...

 

The draft evaluation process is almost never a binary thing -- barring you and I or Thanos being in the draft, every player will be on some sort of evaluation spectrum for every front office. I didn't "eliminate" your guy, I simply said he was "probably a JAG" (also probably not the insult you're taking it as, more on that in a minute). That's not to say that Beane and his team have no idea who Bushman is or deleted his evaluation page without filling any of it out, simply that he's likely nothing special.

 

It's important to keep in mind that front offices are having to constantly track, evaluate, rank and do due diligence on more than 500 of the world's best athletes across 24 positions, use those evaluations to develop a strategy in concert with the coaching staff and then identify how to optimally execute. And all of that is happening first during the playoffs and then free agency and the offseason (where they're absolutely also keeping track of their own players, personnel taking time off, etc.) I'm exhausted just typing all of that out.

 

Simply put, there's too much going on for them to be completely dialed in with every prospect, all the time, so that kind of back-of-napkin math can be helpful. Teams monitor sites like The Draft Network every day to make sure there's not something that they missed because, 1) ESPN, TDN, etc. don't have to worry about the external stuff and can focus solely on evaluations and pumping out content, and 2) because that has now become big business. Anyone can write about how great so many of these WRs are -- and many of us on this site have for free. The big scores would come in finding that needle in the haystack. So my point on Bushman, is -- if there was substantial evidence that he could be some diamond in the rough -- it's a good bet that there would be a decent amount of content out there hypothesizing that, and beyond BYU fan sites, there's not a ton. Like it or don't, but that's more or less the process in a real front office, so I tried to answer your question as such. At the end of the day, EVERY draft pick is at least somewhat an educated guess, and teams use every resource possible to get as much education as possible, but that's also balanced with the need to triage their work, so guys like Bushman, who may or may not even get drafted will automatically get less attention in the evaluation process, than, say, a Pat Freirmuth. That's just the way it works. 

 

To your point on Kittle, he wasn't some unknown quantity, he just wasn't a special athlete or body going the draft process. That class was actually stocked with TE prospects: OJ Howard and David Njoku were two of the best athlete profiles in TE draft history; Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett and Jake Butt were studs in college, and Adam Sheehan had the basketball prototype that GMs are still overdrafting. Kittle wasn't some little known prospect, he was just pushed down by guys who -- at the time -- were better athletic prospects or appeared to be more well-rounded players. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to his smaller stature, most GMs thought the was maxed out as a Jordan Reed type and didn't anticipate him becoming a better athlete. Is some of that misevaluation? Maybe, but quite clearly he has become a better athlete since the 2017 draft, so you have to give the guy credit for his own development as well. But he was 100% an example of a talented guy getting pushed down in a good (or perceived to be good) class.  

 

Lastly, on the JAG thing -- a former player of his (forgetting who, I'll try to dig it up) recently joined a podcast to talk about how Sean McVey saw essentially 90-95% of his roster as JAGs -- like, literally replaceable on the daily type JAGs. His philosophy was that special players win and lose you games, and there are only a handful of special players on each team, so he wanted his personnel strategy to be focused on adding those special type players and filling in with JAGs (FWIW, the Rams' general strategy over the past 5ish years seems to back that up pretty solidly). While that may be a bit on the extreme side, even if you extended the ratio to be 50/50, we're still talking about 30 guys every roster who are "just another guy", meaning very easily replaceable with similar talent and skillset. Now take what we know about draft success rates, -- where even first rounders routinely bust -- and you're looking at verrrrry long odds...

 

All of the above is meant to be educational, not confrontational -- you asked what I thought about Bushman: I think at best he's a replaceable/replacement-level player (there are worse things to be in or around the NFL). Maybe he becomes something special, and I can agree that -- in general -- a guy coming off an injury has the ability to be under or misevaluated, but I can just about guarantee you that GMs are going to take chances on a lot of other guys over a guy already in his mid-20s (redshirt senior + mission) coming off of a torn Achilles. Like I said... long odds.

Edited April 9, 2021 by glazeduck

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Thanks for the tape, @Motorin'! Hadn't heard of Tonga, before, but he looks like Star on juice! I'd take a late round flier on him.

 

Exactly! I'm high on Alim, but think there's a small chance we go DT in the first 3 rounds. I think I like Tonga best of all the late rounds NT prospects. 

[glazeduck]

8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Exactly! I'm high on Alim, but think there's a small chance we go DT in the first 3 rounds. I think I like Tonga best of all the late rounds NT prospects. 

Tonga's an interesting one. I'm discounting just about EVERY BYU player this year because of their absolutely silly/fluky scheduling situation, but he's been a solid performer for years. 1Ts are very replaceable in my eyes, so I think I hope we just take the last "solid" option on the board, but I do love me some big polys in the trenches. Wouldn't hate it if we took him late enough! 

 

Also LOVE Alim! He's probably my biggest exception to the "replaceable" rule in this class...

Edited April 9, 2021 by glazeduck

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Agree to disagree on just about all of this...

 

The draft evaluation process is almost never a binary thing -- barring you and I or Thanos being in the draft, every player will be on some sort of evaluation spectrum for every front office. I didn't "eliminate" your guy, I simply said he was "probably a JAG" (also probably not the insult you're taking it as, more on that in a minute). That's not to say that Beane and his team have no idea who Bushman is or deleted his evaluation page without filling any of it out, simply that he's likely nothing special.

 

It's important to keep in mind that front offices are having to constantly track, evaluate, rank and do due diligence on more than 500 of the world's best athletes across 24 positions, use those evaluations to develop a strategy in concert with the coaching staff and then identify how to optimally execute. And all of that is happening first during the playoffs and then free agency and the offseason (where they're absolutely also keeping track of their own players, personnel taking time off, etc.) I'm exhausted just typing all of that out.

 

Simply put, there's too much going on for them to be completely dialed in with every prospect, all the time, so that kind of back-of-napkin math can be helpful. Teams monitor sites like The Draft Network every day to make sure there's not something that they missed because, 1) ESPN, TDN, etc. don't have to worry about the external stuff and can focus solely on evaluations and pumping out content, and 2) because that has now become big business. Anyone can write about how great so many of these WRs are -- and many of us on this site have for free. The big scores would come in finding that needle in the haystack. So my point on Bushman, is -- if there was substantial evidence that he could be some diamond in the rough -- it's a good bet that there would be a decent amount of content out there hypothesizing that, and beyond BYU fan sites, there's not a ton. Like it or don't, but that's more or less the process in a real front office, so I tried to answer your question as such. At the end of the day, EVERY draft pick is at least somewhat an educated guess, and teams use every resource possible to get as much education as possible, but that's also balanced with the need to triage their work, so guys like Bushman, who may or may not even get drafted will automatically get less attention in the evaluation process, than, say, a Pat Freirmuth. That's just the way it works. 

 

To your point on Kittle, he wasn't some unknown quantity, he just wasn't a special athlete or body going the draft process. That class was actually stocked with TE prospects: OJ Howard and David Njoku were two of the best athlete profiles in TE draft history; Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett and Jake Butt were studs in college, and Adam Sheehan had the basketball prototype that GMs are still overdrafting. Kittle wasn't some little known prospect, he was just pushed down by guys who -- at the time -- were better athletic prospects or appeared to be more well-rounded players. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to his smaller stature, most GMs thought the was maxed out as a Jordan Reed type and didn't anticipate him becoming a better athlete. Is some of that misevaluation? Maybe, but quite clearly he has become a better athlete since the 2017 draft, so you have to give the guy credit for his own development as well. But he was 100% an example of a talented guy getting pushed down in a good (or perceived to be good) class.  

 

Lastly, on the JAG thing -- a former player of his (forgetting who, I'll try to dig it up) recently joined a podcast to talk about how Sean McVey saw essentially 90-95% of his roster as JAGs -- like, literally replaceable on the daily type JAGs. His philosophy was that special players win and lose you games, and there are only a handful of special players on each team, so he wanted his personnel strategy to be focused on adding those special type players and filling in with JAGs (FWIW, the Rams' general strategy over the past 5ish years seems to back that up pretty solidly). While that may be a bit on the extreme side, even if you extended the ratio to be 50/50, we're still talking about 30 guys every roster who are "just another guy", meaning very easily replaceable with similar talent and skillset. Now take what we know about draft success rates, -- where even first rounders routinely bust -- and you're looking at verrrrry long odds...

 

All of the above is meant to be educational, not confrontational -- you asked what I thought about Bushman: I think at best he's a replaceable/replacement-level player (there are worse things to be in or around the NFL). Maybe he becomes something special, and I can agree that -- in general -- a guy coming off an injury has the ability to be under or misevaluated, but I can just about guarantee you that GMs are going to take chances on a lot of other guys over a guy already in his mid-20s (redshirt senior + mission) coming off of a torn Achilles. Like I said... long odds.

 

 

 

God bless anyone who read thru all that.

 

Bushman is not "my player"........just pointing out that you are drawing a conclusion that has nothing to do with an actual evaluation of the player.

 

It's basically "all Jeff Tedford system QB's have disappointed in the NFL.........so that's just a no for me"..........there was indeed a string of dud QB's from JT's programs......but then came Aaron Rodgers.

 

[glazeduck]

13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

God bless anyone who read thru all that.

 

Bushman is not "my player"........just pointing out that you are drawing a conclusion that has nothing to do with an actual evaluation of the player.

 

It's basically "all Jeff Tedford system QB's have disappointed in the NFL.........so that's just a no for me"..........there was indeed a string of dud QB's from JT's programs......but then came Aaron Rodgers.

 

It's not at all, actually. But I'm sure glad I put in the effort to explain it to you since you very clearly got absolutely nothing out of it. Why ask questions if you're not open to responses other than what you're looking for?

[T master]

On 4/4/2021 at 12:03 PM, Motorin' said:

I have a few under the radar guys who could be steals in round 5 and beyond.

 

Simi Fehoko WR, Stanford. 6'4", 222lbs. 4.37 40. Similar college production as DK Metcalf. None of the draft hype. He's a legit deep threat and a big possession receiver. 

Deon Jackson, RB, Duke. 5' 11", 220 lbs. 4.39 40. Good power back, good hands. Has the speed to get outside. One cut north / south runner. 

 

 

 

Kyrsis Tonga, NT, BYU. Big powerful 1 tech. Can penetrate one on one, but will occupy double teams to keep lineman off of our LBs. 

 

 

 

Seeing as Star is coming back and his age this Tonga looks legit he could be a really good player in the D for a while then put him in the Bills strength & conditioning program OMG he'd be even better .

 

Plus a Bills mafia rant of TONGA TONGA TONGA would remind me of animal house when they had a TOGA party 😂

Edited April 10, 2021 by T master

[Bermuda Triangle]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:36 PM, glazeduck said:

It's not at all, actually. But I'm sure glad I put in the effort to explain it to you since you very clearly got absolutely nothing out of it. Why ask questions if you're not open to responses other than what you're looking for?

are you new here?