PokeForLife Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 On 4/2/2021 at 9:19 AM, BADOLBILZ said: No, he was not. @Doc already tried to make up a stat like that. Per NFL's own Next Gen stats Josh Allen was 14th in deep ball accuracy with a 40.6 completion %. I provided a link a few posts ago about a segment NFL Network produced prior to the Colts game that showed the Colts defense allowed 50% of deep balls to be completed on them during the season but that Allen was not good on the deep ball. He is middling at it.........and that is despite the fact that he can throw a deep ball on a line so *some* of those throws are still in his wheelhouse. But the further you get downfield the easier that flat throws become to defend. When it comes to putting air under the ball and dropping it into a bucket like Brady and Wilson and Rodgers are so good at........there has been no telling where the ball will land when Allen lofts it over the defense. It's the next logical step in his progression but he was still scattershot on such throws last year and he declined to attempt some golden opportunities as well because of his inefficiency in that regard. As someone who watched every game of Allen's college career and all but a few of his NFL career, this is correct. If he has the window to throw the ball on a rope, it will be one of the most amazing throws you'll ever see. Once he had to put loft on the ball down the field in college, it was likely to be a 10-15 yard overthrow. This has improved immensely over the past two years, but I'm still sitting on the edge of my seat any time I see the ball go up out the top of the TV broadcast view. 3 1
Arm of Harm Posted April 4, 2021 Posted April 4, 2021 9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight. And my sand sprints and sand dune climb repeats are beating me up something wonderful. I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work. Yeah, the things you've described in your post are definitely more important than attempting to win an argument about statistics on an Internet discussion board. I think that both sides have done a good job making their cases, and I've bestowed likes on posts from both sides in this argument. However good or bad Allen was at deep passes in 2020, I hope he is outstanding at such passes this season! 👍
BADOLBILZ Posted April 4, 2021 Posted April 4, 2021 On 4/3/2021 at 10:49 AM, Thurman#1 said: So, nobody has answered, and that seems reasonable. The four sets of numbers aren't that far apart. There's nothing useful to help anyone guess. So I'll give the answers now. Rodgers is #1 Mahomes is #2 Allen is #3 and Wilson is #4 Note: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ So this is what it looks like together: Aaron Rodgers 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD Patrick Mahomes 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs 40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 50+ yards: none Josh Allen 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT 40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD 50+ yards: 0/1 Russell Wilson: 30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs 40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs 50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs They aren't all that far apart. I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight. And my sand sprints and sand dune climb repeats are beating me up something wonderful. I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work. Again: Passes over 25 yards in 2020: Aaron Rodgers 47% Russell Wilson 41% Josh Allen 33% Leaving just those 5-6 very big passing plays on the table is a lot.........in the same way as the difference between 5 sacks or TD's versus 10-11 is a lot........it's a league full of small stats that are very impactful. And for all the talk about completion %..........that doesn't even tell the whole story. Go back and watch the Cover 1 youtube review of the game at NYJ as a good example............Allen had a busted coverage throw to a wide open Kroft that was caught but it came in so hot that Kroft lost his balance after the catch.........he also tucked the ball on some wide open deep shots in that game that a QB like Aaron Rodgers (whose level Allen aspires to) throws every time. Missed big plays and more wear and tear.
Doc Posted April 4, 2021 Posted April 4, 2021 5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Again: Passes over 25 yards in 2020: Aaron Rodgers 47% Russell Wilson 41% Josh Allen 33% Leaving just those 5-6 very big passing plays on the table is a lot.........in the same way as the difference between 5 sacks or TD's versus 10-11 is a lot........it's a league full of small stats that are very impactful. And for all the talk about completion %..........that doesn't even tell the whole story. Go back and watch the Cover 1 youtube review of the game at NYJ as a good example............Allen had a busted coverage throw to a wide open Kroft that was caught but it came in so hot that Kroft lost his balance after the catch.........he also tucked the ball on some wide open deep shots in that game that a QB like Aaron Rodgers (whose level Allen aspires to) throws every time. Missed big plays and more wear and tear. It's not 5-6 plays: it's just 1, arguably 2. From 30-40 yards, Josh's real numbers were 7/20, which is virtually as good as Rodgers, who was the best of the group in that range. The difference between Josh's completion percentage on 40-50 yards versus Mahomes was 1 more completion. What to do with the 50+ yard pass when Mahomes didn't even attempt one and Rodgers was 1/4 is debatable.
Shaw66 Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 On 3/31/2021 at 10:21 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: NFL.com gives number of completed 40+ yd passes, but it's not clear whether those are air yards or total yards https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/passing/2020/REG/all/passing40plusyardseach/DESC Completion % is also not given. Rodgers led league with 14 over 40. Allen had 8. So if Allen improved nicely he would have 11, only three more deep balls a season. No one throws many deep balls. That isn't where the game is played, because everyone wants to stop the bombs. The Bills are trying to improve from 10 to 30, and that's where Sanders helps.
ColoradoBills Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 On 4/1/2021 at 9:58 AM, billsfan89 said: I think they really want to use him and his versatility as a WR4. He takes pressure of off Davis who we can see if he is worthy of being a true WR2. Beasley and Sanders I hope both have one more year left in the tank and with Diggs as the WR1 and Davis and Mac as the younger options I think you see an elite WR corps for one more season. Hopefully Davis really does emerge as a solid WR2. That sets the WR corps up longer term. I think you are totally right. They will ease Davis into the #2 role and Sanders will split time with him. He more than likely will have other matchup and substitution roles to get his targets up. I think the 4 WR sets are going to be very interesting!
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Doc said: It's not 5-6 plays: it's just 1, arguably 2. From 30-40 yards, Josh's real numbers were 7/20, which is virtually as good as Rodgers, who was the best of the group in that range. The difference between Josh's completion percentage on 40-50 yards versus Mahomes was 1 more completion. What to do with the 50+ yard pass when Mahomes didn't even attempt one and Rodgers was 1/4 is debatable. Wrong. It does add up to a 5-6 huge completed play difference. You want to start further upstream than I do to make it seem like there are less attempts. When you get to 26-30 yard throws.........Josh drops to 20th in completion %. And I don't differentiate after 40 yards........why would you need too? ALL of those throws require a similar trajectory. As I said..........he's a top 4 overall QB who is a middle of the league in deep ball touch/timing/accuracy...........and again, I anticipate that he will make huge strides there after another offseason focusing on it.
Doc Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Wrong. It does add up to a 5-6 huge completed play difference. You want to start further upstream than I do to make it seem like there are less attempts. When you get to 26-30 yard throws.........Josh drops to 20th in completion %. And I don't differentiate after 40 yards........why would you need too? ALL of those throws require a similar trajectory. As I said..........he's a top 4 overall QB who is a middle of the league in deep ball touch/timing/accuracy...........and again, I anticipate that he will make huge strides there after another offseason focusing on it. What are the stats for 26-30 yards across the league? And how many were dropped (Josh had 23 dropped passes) and how many were when he was injured?
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Rodgers led league with 14 over 40. Allen had 8. So if Allen improved nicely he would have 11, only three more deep balls a season. No one throws many deep balls. That isn't where the game is played, because everyone wants to stop the bombs. The Bills are trying to improve from 10 to 30, and that's where Sanders helps. Three more completions over 40 would be huge. They were already excellent on short to intermediate throws last season........but by the playoffs defenses were no longer giving them the space or free releases and running room that they had during the regular season and the offense labored. Adding Sanders is fine but good receivers still need room to work..........which is what they lacked without proficiency at throwing deep to WR's or a seam stretching TE. Allen was good on short throws already in 2019...........then he became one of the best at 20-25 yard throws 2020.......the next step is getting into the club on deep throws. I'm not sure why there is such denial about it. It's important and Allen and Palmer know it. Edited April 5, 2021 by BADOLBILZ
Doc Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said: Three more completions over 40 would be huge. They were already excellent on short to intermediate throws last season........but by the playoffs defenses were no longer giving them the space or free releases and running room that they had during the regular season and the offense labored. Adding Sanders is fine but good receivers still need room to work..........which is what they lacked without either a deep threat WR or a seam stretching TE. Allen was good on short throws already in 2019...........then he became one of the best at 20-25 yard throws 2020.......the next step is getting into the club on deep throws. I'm not sure why there is such denial about it. It's important and Allen and Palmer know it. Huge? Would 1 more completion have meant the difference between a win and a loss against the Chiefs, Titans or Cardinals?
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Doc said: What are the stats for 26-30 yards across the league? And how many were dropped (Josh had 23 dropped passes) and how many were when he was injured? The numbers are in the links you provided that you didn't even actually read. As for the drops I do not know............what I do know is that the further you get from the LOS the harder it gets to complete flat throws........that's why the out-pass is considered such a critical test of arm strength..........and when Allen tried to put air under the deeper passesl he threw too many uncatchable balls and when he did not the ball was often more difficult to catch as a result. 7 minutes ago, Doc said: Huge? Would 1 more completion have meant the difference between a win and a loss against the Chiefs, Titans or Cardinals? It literally was for the Cardinals.
Mat68 Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 (edited) Sanders is an upgrade over Brown in pretty much every way. Is he as fast? Probably not. Can he beat coverage better he can. 10 to 20 yards is where the game is won. He is way better in this window. He is not the long term answer. I think Buffalo drafts a wr early but for 21 Sanders is #2. He allows Diggs to play more vertical as well. Edited April 5, 2021 by Mat68
Shaw66 Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Three more completions over 40 would be huge. They were already excellent on short to intermediate throws last season........but by the playoffs defenses were no longer giving them the space or free releases and running room that they had during the regular season and the offense labored. Adding Sanders is fine but good receivers still need room to work..........which is what they lacked without proficiency at throwing deep to WR's or a seam stretching TE. Allen was good on short throws already in 2019...........then he became one of the best at 20-25 yard throws 2020.......the next step is getting into the club on deep throws. I'm not sure why there is such denial about it. It's important and Allen and Palmer know it. Three more completions would be nice, but they wouldn't be "huge." They would be worth 9 to 21 points, since each would either be a touchdown or put the Bills in scoring position. Of course, without those three completions, the Bills might score on those drives, anyway. But call it 9-21. That would be a nice addition. It would have moved the Bills from number 2 to number 1 in team scoring (which points out that scoring really wasn't the Bills' problem last season). The argument for a deep threat isn't about the season; it's about key games. How can the Bills best threaten the BEST defenses, like the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game? And, I agree, the Bills would like to have had a quality deep threat against the Chiefs. They had two - Diggs and Brown, but both were hobbled, and the defense handled them really well. So what is your solution? Get Tyreek Hill? Will Fuller is the only guy I could think of who would be a serious deep threat who was available. He was probably too pricey for the Bills, and I'm not sure I'd take Fuller over Sanders in any case; I've never been a big Fuller fan. But at least I'd get the argument. The thing about this is that we aren't talking about big differences to the offense. Will Fuller is not such a great deep threat that he's going to change the Bills offense all that much. Diggs already lead the league in receiving; how much more help does he need? How much more help does Beasley need? I think we're talking about marginal differences. And Sanders is a better mid-range threat than Fuller or Brown. When the Bills signed Sanders, I liked it because he's a quality receiver, but I was disappointed like you that he isn't a true burner, at least no longer. I just don't see that it makes that much difference. Diggs can get deep; McKenzie; Davis has shown he can; Knox can; Sanders can. We're not talking about great speed, speed like Hill, but it's speed that can get deep. Just like we always talk about the run game setting up the pass or the pass setting up the run, the Bills' short- and mid-range passing game can set up the deep game. The problem is much more about Allen hitting receivers deep that it is about having true deep threats.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Three more completions would be nice, but they wouldn't be "huge." They would be worth 9 to 21 points, since each would either be a touchdown or put the Bills in scoring position. Of course, without those three completions, the Bills might score on those drives, anyway. But call it 9-21. That would be a nice addition. It would have moved the Bills from number 2 to number 1 in team scoring (which points out that scoring really wasn't the Bills' problem last season). The argument for a deep threat isn't about the season; it's about key games. How can the Bills best threaten the BEST defenses, like the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game? And, I agree, the Bills would like to have had a quality deep threat against the Chiefs. They had two - Diggs and Brown, but both were hobbled, and the defense handled them really well. So what is your solution? Get Tyreek Hill? Will Fuller is the only guy I could think of who would be a serious deep threat who was available. He was probably too pricey for the Bills, and I'm not sure I'd take Fuller over Sanders in any case; I've never been a big Fuller fan. But at least I'd get the argument. The thing about this is that we aren't talking about big differences to the offense. Will Fuller is not such a great deep threat that he's going to change the Bills offense all that much. Diggs already lead the league in receiving; how much more help does he need? How much more help does Beasley need? I think we're talking about marginal differences. And Sanders is a better mid-range threat than Fuller or Brown. When the Bills signed Sanders, I liked it because he's a quality receiver, but I was disappointed like you that he isn't a true burner, at least no longer. I just don't see that it makes that much difference. Diggs can get deep; McKenzie; Davis has shown he can; Knox can; Sanders can. We're not talking about great speed, speed like Hill, but it's speed that can get deep. Just like we always talk about the run game setting up the pass or the pass setting up the run, the Bills' short- and mid-range passing game can set up the deep game. The problem is much more about Allen hitting receivers deep that it is about having true deep threats. No it would be huge just in terms of putting it on film and buying respect from defenses. As I said........defenses adjusted to the Bills lack of deep ball proficiency in the playoffs and the Bills couldn't respond. People can point to the wind being the issue with the deep ball in the Ravens game.....but the Ravens challenged the Bills to throw deep in 2019 as well.........the book is there for a good defense. The Colts were the worst team in the NFL at defending the deep ball...........but because the Bills couldn't push the ball on a beautiful windless day they really labored against them and Allen took a beating keeping the chains moving. It's an important element where they were lacking. Much of it is Allen getting the touch/timing down..........but adding a deep threat with an extra gear and/or a huge catch radius would help.
Dr. Who Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: No it would be huge just in terms of putting it on film and buying respect from defenses. As I said........defenses adjusted to the Bills lack of deep ball proficiency in the playoffs and the Bills couldn't respond. People can point to the wind being the issue with the deep ball in the Ravens game.....but the Ravens challenged the Bills to throw deep in 2019 as well.........the book is there for a good defense. The Colts were the worst team in the NFL at defending the deep ball...........but because the Bills couldn't push the ball on a beautiful windless day they really labored against them and Allen took a beating keeping the chains moving. It's an important element where they were lacking. Much of it is Allen getting the touch/timing down..........but adding a deep threat with an extra gear and/or a huge catch radius would help. This is supposedly a deep draft for wide receivers. I hope we don't presume the wr room is set to the point that deep threat/large catch radius wr is off the table. 1
Shaw66 Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: No it would be huge just in terms of putting it on film and buying respect from defenses. Maybe you're right, but I don't think so. It wasn't like the Bills were attacking defenses with a bunch of 4.7 second 40 guys. Diggs is 4.42, Beasley, 4.49, John Brown 4.34, Isaiah McKenzie 4.42. The reason the Bills weren't getting deep is that teams weren't threatened by the run - that's what teams saw on film, so they could play a safety deep or play cover 2. 1 1
Logic Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: No it would be huge just in terms of putting it on film and buying respect from defenses. As I said........defenses adjusted to the Bills lack of deep ball proficiency in the playoffs and the Bills couldn't respond. People can point to the wind being the issue with the deep ball in the Ravens game.....but the Ravens challenged the Bills to throw deep in 2019 as well.........the book is there for a good defense. The Colts were the worst team in the NFL at defending the deep ball...........but because the Bills couldn't push the ball on a beautiful windless day they really labored against them and Allen took a beating keeping the chains moving. It's an important element where they were lacking. Much of it is Allen getting the touch/timing down..........but adding a deep threat with an extra gear and/or a huge catch radius would help. Diggs IS an excellent deep threat. So is Davis. If you look at Sanders’ tape from the last couple years, you see him doing a lot of the underneath stuff that we often had Diggs doing this year — comebacks, outs, finding soft spots in zones in the short and intermediate areas of the field. My hope in adding Sanders is that he takes a portion of that stuff off of Diggs’ plate, freeing him up to be the lethal deep threat that we already know he is capable of being. Diggs is one of the best deep threats in the game. Davis’ YPC also show that he is a high quality deep threat. I’d like to see the Bills add another speedy WR in the draft, but it’s important to acknowledge that they ALREADY have two great deep threats. Hopefully, Sanders’ presence unlocks the ability for them to be used as such more frequently and more effectively. 2
Doc Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: The numbers are in the links you provided that you didn't even actually read. As for the drops I do not know............what I do know is that the further you get from the LOS the harder it gets to complete flat throws........that's why the out-pass is considered such a critical test of arm strength..........and when Allen tried to put air under the deeper passesl he threw too many uncatchable balls and when he did not the ball was often more difficult to catch as a result. I read the links. It wasn't in the 2nd one and I can't access the Buffalo News one. And drops are important. Scott unwittingly alerted me that the 50+ yard pass was a drop by Diggs. Quote It literally was for the Cardinals. Maybe. But a properly-defended Hail Mary would have definitively led to the win. 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: No it would be huge just in terms of putting it on film and buying respect from defenses. As I said........defenses adjusted to the Bills lack of deep ball proficiency in the playoffs and the Bills couldn't respond. People can point to the wind being the issue with the deep ball in the Ravens game.....but the Ravens challenged the Bills to throw deep in 2019 as well.........the book is there for a good defense. The Colts were the worst team in the NFL at defending the deep ball...........but because the Bills couldn't push the ball on a beautiful windless day they really labored against them and Allen took a beating keeping the chains moving. It's an important element where they were lacking. Much of it is Allen getting the touch/timing down..........but adding a deep threat with an extra gear and/or a huge catch radius would help. Defenses began respecting Josh's are soon after the season started. They weren't saying "well, he's 20th from 26-30 or can't hit them like Rodgers/Mahomes/Wislon from 30+ so I'm not going to bother defending anyone." That's just silly. Edited April 5, 2021 by Doc 1
Mat68 Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 Having someone outside other than Diggs who can get open will help alot. When you send Diggs and he is doubled the play goes down hill fast. Diggs has been the most productive deep wr since he entered the league. Having the ability to use him at all levels will open the offense and make him and the offense harder to handle. Brown couldnt win consistently. Sanders is more polished.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2021 Posted April 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Doc said: I read the links. It wasn't in the 2nd one and I can't access the Buffalo News one. And drops are important. Scott unwittingly alerted me that the 50+ yard pass was a drop by Diggs. Maybe. But a properly-defended Hail Mary would have definitively led to the win. Defenses began respecting Josh's are soon after the season started. They weren't saying "well, he's 20th from 26-30 or can't hit them like Rodgers/Mahomes/Wislon from 30+ so I'm not going to bother defending anyone." That's just silly. In the Arizona game one long completion won them a game...........it was a hail mary........but it was also a perfectly thrown ball and it was as well defensed as those players could........they just couldn't out jump a guy with an elite catch radius. The Bills offense took a big lead in that game and then went like 6 possessions in a row without a score.......allowing Arizona back into the game. On paper, one more score would have been the difference. In reality one more score may have been a dagger that halted Arizona's momentum and it may never have been a close game. In the first Chiefs game they were inches away from Zimmer's forced fumble counting and the Bills having the ball late down one score. The Pats were just yards away from beating the Bills in Buffalo when Zimmer forced a fumble. Games obviously are frequently enough decided by one play that this shouldn't be a point of contention.........playing it off like having 5-6 more huge pass plays in a season is insignificant is a case of someone REALLY being too far removed from the actual season to remember how slim the margin for error can be.
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