BADOLBILZ Posted April 2, 2021 Posted April 2, 2021 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Can you point me at this? The stat I found, only gives data on the total yards gained on a play. It doesn't differentiate between air yards and YAC. Thanks. Here it is again: https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8 It's a 26 second video. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 3, 2021 Author Posted April 3, 2021 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Here it is again: https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8 It's a 26 second video. I find this difficult to interpret. It mentions NextGenStats, which defines a completed pass of >20 yds as a deep ball. It's not clear to me whether NextGenStats are using air yards, or total yards for these passes (I hope the former). However, in a bit of digging, I found "The 2020-2021 Deep Ball Project" which ranks every QB by deep ball accuracy (they are making judgements as to whether a ball was on target and catchable, but not caught). Part 1 explains their methodology. They use air yards and break down passes by different distance ranges. They calculate both completion % and accuracy %. https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/ Allen's stats are found in Part 3 where he ranks 7 out of 32 out of accuracy %, an improvement from 2019-2020 where he ranked 29th out of 32. https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-3-3/ One can also go through and look at the specific completion percentage for each distance range, as well as the accuracy percentage for each distance range and rank there. Enjoy. 1 1
BADOLBILZ Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I find this difficult to interpret. It mentions NextGenStats, which defines a completed pass of >20 yds as a deep ball. It's not clear to me whether NextGenStats are using air yards, or total yards for these passes (I hope the former). However, in a bit of digging, I found "The 2020-2021 Deep Ball Project" which ranks every QB by deep ball accuracy (they are making judgements as to whether a ball was on target and catchable, but not caught). Part 1 explains their methodology. They use air yards and break down passes by different distance ranges. They calculate both completion % and accuracy %. https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/ Allen's stats are found in Part 3 where he ranks 7 out of 32 out of accuracy %, an improvement from 2019-2020 where he ranked 29th out of 32. https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-3-3/ One can also go through and look at the specific completion percentage for each distance range, as well as the accuracy percentage for each distance range and rank there. Enjoy. Yeah again, I don't consider a 21-25 yard pass a deep throw for Josh Allen.........as I said he's the best in the league in that range because he can throw a 25 yard pass on a rope. In subsequent yardage subsets he ranks: 26-30 20th 31-35 11th 36-40 5th( the smallest sample size) 41 and over 20th. So on throws of 26 yards and over he had a 32% completion %. By contrast Aaron Rodgers had a 47% completion % on those throws. Russell Wilson was at 41%. Allen is no longer horrible at the deep ball.....that was never in question....... but he has a lot of room to improve..........those numbers pass the eye test. The question is are the Bills helping Allen by trying to keep the WR corps so limited to guys who do their best work in the short to intermediate range where Allen has had great command of the ball.............or should they complement the group with a talent that can help him be better at the deeper throws? 1 1
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 On 4/2/2021 at 4:34 AM, ScottLaw said: My argument is he’s still very inconsistent in throwing it.... It’s still the one major weak point in his game. As I said he started off the season on fire with it and faded throughout the middle of the season while not giving his receivers a chance. https://news.timekills.info/19-october-2020-chiefs-at-bills/ 5:00. Underthrows Brown on a 45 yard pass after a flea flicker. 5:41 Misses an open McKenzie for a TD on a 40 yard pass. 10:38. Just misses Diggs on a 50 yard TD throw. This was actually a good throw. Diggs dropped it. https://news.timekills.info/01-november-2020-patriots-at-bills/?_ga=2.198071917.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381 8:52. Allen overthrows a 50 yard pass to Davis along the left sidelines by a good 3-4 yards.(And it was OOB) https://news.timekills.info/08-november-2020-seahawks-at-bills/?_ga=2.156078457.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381 9:25 Allen throws a 35-40 yard pass to Brown along the left sidelines that is overthrow and OOB. Completely uncatchable. 35:35 Allen throws a 45-50 yard pass to Diggs near the left side of the field that is slightly overthrown. Diggs had his man beat. At which point the commentator says it’s one part of Allens game he can improve upon. https://news.timekills.info/15-november-2020-bills-at-cardinals/?_ga=2.156210425.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381 31:52 Allen overthrows John Brown on the right sideline. Coverage was good but that ball was overthrown and away from Brown. These are just a few examples. He was pretty hit or miss after starting the season on fire with the deep balls. Yes of course he is inconsistent in throwing the long ball. Everyone in NFL history is. It's extremely difficult to do well. The point isn't whether he's inconsistent. It's whether he's more inconsistent than others. He's not. You can put together a look at any NFL QB who has thrown long and put together a bad long throws highlight reel. Hell you can put together a bad shor throws highlight reel on any QB. Do you seriously actually not know this? You can do the same with Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, anyone. Absolutely anyone. 3
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) BIG QUIZ: Match the QBs to his Stats Here are four QBs, and four sets of stats for 2020 showing success in passes over 30 air yards. The four QBs are: Josh Allen Aaron Rodgers Russell Wilson Patrick Mahomes The quiz is this. Which of those four is #1, which is #2, which is #3, and which is #4. Quarterback #1: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD Quarterback #2: 30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs 40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 50+ yards: none Quarterback #3: 30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT 40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD 50+ yards: 0/1 Quarterback #4: 30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs 40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs 50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs There's just not a lot of difference there, is there? Particularly when there are so few attempts, the differences are either statistically insignificant or very slight. Completions of over 30 yards are really hard to get. Which is really why none of them threw very many. Feel free to guess!! You can even do the research. I used https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ They have charts for each game. I went through and added all the games up for those four QBs. They had all the games for Rodgers, but missed one game each for all of the other three. For Allen, I was curious enough that I went to the game they missed and referring to a play-by-play checked every long pass, complete and incomplete to check the air yards. So I have all 16 games for Allen and Rodgers. I didn't want to bother with Mahomes and Wilson. Please feel free if you have an hour or so, to check the one missing game for each of those two guys. Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1 1
BADOLBILZ Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Yes of course he is inconsistent in throwing the long ball. Everyone in NFL history is. It's extremely difficult to do well. The point isn't whether he's inconsistent. It's whether he's more inconsistent than others. He's not. You can put together a look at any NFL QB who has thrown long and put together a bad long throws highlight reel. Hell you can put together a bad shor throws highlight reel on any QB. Do you seriously actually not know this? You can do the same with Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, anyone. Absolutely anyone. That's just jibberish. As I noted above........the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%). One guy is great at the deep ball........the other is middle of the pack. There isn't a physical reason why there should be such a discrepancy between the two QB's on deep throws. It's not random and not just a case of "everyone is inconsistent"..............that's just you trying to shout down a discussion with an unsupported observation. As I've said about your takes........
Da webster guy Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 A lot of smart football minds in Buffalo felt Sanders was worth over $2M more per year than John Brown, who has three 1000 yard receiving seasons and had a ton of chemistry with Josh and the team in general. It seems crazy to me because Smoke was so sure-handed and always seemed open, even doubled as our #1 WR two years ago, but I trust the talent e v a l guys we have so I'm on board with Sanders.
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 Nobody has guessed yet. Which one of the four QBs above is Allen? Which is Russ Wilson? Which is Rodgers and which is Mahomes? Compare their Completion percentages at similar distances. Very very similar. So again: 8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: BIG QUIZ: Match the QBs to his Stats Here are four QBs, and four sets of stats for 2020 showing success in passes over 30 air yards. The four QBs are: Josh Allen Aaron Rodgers Russell Wilson Patrick Mahomes The quiz is this. Which of those four is #1, which is #2, which is #3, and which is #4. Quarterback #1: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD Quarterback #2: 30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs 40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 50+ yards: none Quarterback #3: 30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT 40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD 50+ yards: 0/1 Quarterback #4: 30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs 40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs 50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs There's just not a lot of difference there, is there? Particularly when there are so few attempts, the differences are either statistically insignificant or very slight. Completions of over 30 yards are really hard to get. Which is really why none of them threw very many. Feel free to guess!! You can even do the research. I used https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ They have charts for each game. I went through and added all the games up for those four QBs. They had all the games for Rodgers, but missed one game each for all of the other three. For Allen, I was curious enough that I went to the game they missed and referring to a play-by-play checked every long pass, complete and incomplete to check the air yards. So I have all 16 games for Allen and Rodgers. I didn't want to bother with Mahomes and Wilson. Please feel free if you have an hour or so, to check the one missing game for each of those two guys.
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: That's just jibberish. As I noted above........the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%). One guy is great at the deep ball........the other is middle of the pack. There isn't a physical reason why there should be such a discrepancy between the two QB's on deep throws. It's not random and not just a case of "everyone is inconsistent"..............that's just you trying to shout down a discussion with an unsupported observation. As I've said about your takes........ It's gibberish? Oh, hey, I will be glad to explain it to you. I thought it didn't really require explanation, but I should have known that some might require a bit of help. Sorry about that. So, I'll use the stats for the first guy as an example for you. Quarterback #1: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD See where it says, 30 - 40 yards? That means that it is talking only about passes that went from 30 - 40 air yards. Sorry for making that too confusing for you. Now, the next thing is 6/16. This is a common way to refer to two different pass statistics. The first number, the 6 is how many passes were completed. The second number is how many passes were attempted. See how it works? That quarterback, attempted 16 passes of between 30 and 40 air yards, and completed 6 of them. Are you following? Now this next part is a bit complex. Stay with me. If you divide the first number by the second number, you can actually get an answer to that problem. So for example, 6 divided by 16 equals 37.5%, when you cut it down to one decimal place. See? And then, "TD" is a common football abbreviation for a six-point play, called a "Touchdown." And I sometimes used another abbreviation, "INT," which is another common football abbreviation, for an "Interception." I hope that clears things up for you. ...... Now, as for your several poor uses of statistics above, you say that "accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%)." Sorry, man, that can't reasonably be called an "accuracy difference." A completion percentage difference, yes. But it shows a ton more about how numbers and statistics work, and your poor use of them, than it does about anyone's accuracy. You are using statistics poorly in many ways here. First is your assumption that because you have a percentage that comparing it with any old other percentage allows you to draw the assumption the comparison would appear to show. For example, say a backup QB comes in and plays a few snaps and throws one pass between 30 and 40 yards, it's a 30 yard TD. And that's his only throw of 30 - 40 yards for the season. Who's number one in your category based on percentages? That guy is. He's a 100% passer between 30 and 40 yards. He's number one, baby. According to your numbers that guy's more accurate than Josh, Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Now, say the same guy in his sixteen attempts throws two passes between 40 and 50 yards, one complete for 42 yards, the other out of bounds. Who's more accurate on long balls, him or Josh Allen, Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Well, your buttheaded system puts him first on the list. 50% from 40 - 50 yards. Clearly this guy is more accurate than those four, according to your system. Now, let's give that imaginary guy a name, say ... oh, Matt Barkley. Oh, wow, what a coincidence, the real Matt actually did do just what I said. 1 for 1 and a touchdown between 30 and 40 yards and 1 for 2 between 40 and 50 yards. Just check the charts on nextgenstats.nfl.com Now, perhaps someone like you might say that we have conclusive proof that Barkley is better at those distances or you could look at the wildly wildly obvious, which is that he wouldn't have continued doing that at that rate if he'd thrown a lot of attempts at those distances. Duh. But your slowcoach of a system puts Barkley (and probably many others ahead of the big four there. It's pure dumb-osity. Then your other, shall we say ... sub-optimal, way of manipulating numbers. There is no reasonable way to add together separate categories as you're doing with this quote: "the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%)." That's just stupid. For example, you have two different QBs, QB A and QB B. QB A completes Wrong. In some cases this would be correct, but in plenty of others it's flat out dunderheaded. How? Between 30 and 40 yards, QB Smith throws 6 for 10, 60%, and QB Jones throws 15 for 30, 50%. Between 40 and 50 yards, QB Smith throws 10 for 30, 33.3%, and QB Jones throws 3 for 10, 30%. Anyone with half a brain can see that Smith was better at both distances and based on numbers alone is clearly the better QB. Anyone except, that is, your feather-brained method. Just add up the numbers and you get Smith throwing 16 for 40, which is 40%, and Jones throwing 18 for 40, 45%. So, at both levels, the shorter and longer, Smith threw better. But when someone half-wittedly adds up all the completions and attempts, Smith has a higher percentage above 30 yards. Why? Because he threw far more shorter passes, which have a higher chance of being completed. Jones was obviously better, but threw more long passes and therefore ended up with a lower percentage total. The idea of adding up several specific categories and thinking you're getting more meaning from the total ... well, it's ludicrous. What you do is ... you look at the raw numbers. And you compare each category for length of throw to how well the other QBs did at that same distance. DUH!!! And you also look at the raw numbers to throw out statistically insignificant differences. If one QB at a certain distance throws 100 passes and completes 50% and another QB throws 90 passes and completes 40%, that's statistically significant. But if one guy at a certain difference went 3 for 7 and another guy went 4 for 7, that's absolutely not statisitically significant. You're making all of these ridiculous mistakes because you're not looking at the raw numbers. You should. Without them you're throwing darts in the dark. So again, for you and everyone else, which of the four QBs in my challenge above is Josh Allen, which Mahomes, which Russell Wilson and which Aaron Rodgers. And yeah, what you see when you look is that these four were very very similar in their numbers in terms of long balls. 1 1
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) On 4/2/2021 at 3:29 AM, Straight Hucklebuck said: Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. It's not an attack on Allen though. The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. Just wanted to add a bit to my previous response. In Week 1, Allen threw zero balls with over 30 air yards. In Week 2, he was 1/1 at 30 - 40 and 1/1 with a TD at 40 - 50. In Week 3, he was 1/2 from 30 - 40 with an INT, and 0/1 from 40 - 50. In Week 4, he didn't attempt one from 30 - 40, but was 1/1 from 40 - 50. In Week 5, he was 1/2 with a TD from 30 - 40 and didn't have a longer attempt. That means he was 3/4 from 30 - 40 with an INT and a TD, he was and 2/3 with a TD at 40 - 50. These are small numbers but look how they were both overall excellent and at the same time, consistently good from week to week. And after that teams went to the two-deep and it got tougher. But he still did well, which the comparisons to the best long-ball QBs in the league in my quiz shows very clearly. Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) So, nobody has answered, and that seems reasonable. The four sets of numbers aren't that far apart. There's nothing useful to help anyone guess. So I'll give the answers now. Rodgers is #1 Mahomes is #2 Allen is #3 and Wilson is #4 Note: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ So this is what it looks like together: Aaron Rodgers 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD Patrick Mahomes 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs 40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 50+ yards: none Josh Allen 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT 40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD 50+ yards: 0/1 Russell Wilson: 30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs 40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs 50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs They aren't all that far apart. I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight. And my sand sprints and sand dune climb repeats are beating me up something wonderful. I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work. Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1 2 1 1
stinky finger Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 On 4/1/2021 at 2:29 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said: Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. It's not an attack on Allen though. The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. Two great throws for sure. Also loved the hose to Kumerow in the Broncos game. On 4/1/2021 at 6:30 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: Wouldn't you say Kumerow appears to have moved ahead of Duke on the depth chart? I would
Doc Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: So, nobody has answered, and that seems reasonable. The four sets of numbers aren't that far apart. There's nothing useful to help anyone guess. So I'll give the answers now. Rodgers is #1 Mahomes is #2 Allen is #3 and Wilson is #4 Note: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ So this is what it looks like together: Aaron Rodgers 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD 40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs 50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD Patrick Mahomes 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs 40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 50+ yards: none Josh Allen 2020: 30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT 40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD 50+ yards: 0/1 Russell Wilson: 30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs 40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs 50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs They aren't all that far apart. I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight. I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work. And that interception for Josh was the Kroft play, right? Meaning it should’ve been 7/20.
Thurman#1 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, Doc said: And that interception for Josh was the Kroft play, right? Meaning it should’ve been 7/20. Just caught this before I logged off. Oh, my God, I didn't even think of that, but yes, it was the Kroft play that absolutely in any sane universe should have been ruled a completion.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Nobody has guessed yet. Which one of the four QBs above is Allen? Which is Russ Wilson? Which is Rodgers and which is Mahomes? Compare their Completion percentages at similar distances. Very very similar. So again: Nobody has guessed because you went into a filibuster.........you've run out of real estate. What's even more distasteful is that you are trying to look witty doing it..........remember.........brevity is the soul of wit. 1 1 1
Doc Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: Just caught this before I logged off. Oh, my God, I didn't even think of that, but yes, it was the Kroft play that absolutely in any sane universe should have been ruled a completion. Another thing that’s noticeable is that 30+ yard passes account for approximately just 2 passes a game on average. 1
K-9 Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 It’s funny how some are seeking to point to the success rate of the lowest percentage play in the game as some sort of important benchmark for quarterbacks to achieve. No QB has ever had a high completion percentage on these passes and it’s kind of absurd to quibble about percentages on such a low number attempts across the league. The fact is there are only a handful of QBs in that opposing DCs have to respect in that regard and Allen is one of them. The threat of stretching the field is what’s important here. 1
Warcodered Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: Nobody has guessed because you went into a filibuster.........you've run out of real estate. What's even more distasteful is that you are trying to look witty doing it..........remember.........brevity is the soul of wit. So instead of trying to answer him you decided to just display your lack of understanding of the word filibuster? Edited April 3, 2021 by Warcodered 1 1
ColoradoBills Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 Good grief, when an OC calls for a long ball (bomb for us old timers) generally a 40+ yard pass so many thing have to happen correctly for a completion that using only a QB completion rate is foolish. It's why it is inherently a low percentage pass because of that fact. The QB is just one part of that equation. There are QBs who are generally a little better than the norm over years on these limited attempted plays but even then a lot of other factors are needed for success. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills Offense were NOT good at these passes his first 2 years in the league. That is a fact! Last year (it has already been confirmed by many sources) that the TEAM worked on this more and significantly improved on this low percentage play. I expect them to continue to work on it and there is a reasonable chance for continued improvement. Anyone wanting to argue with what I stated above?
BADOLBILZ Posted April 3, 2021 Posted April 3, 2021 1 hour ago, K-9 said: It’s funny how some are seeking to point to the success rate of the lowest percentage play in the game as some sort of important benchmark for quarterbacks to achieve. No QB has ever had a high completion percentage on these passes and it’s kind of absurd to quibble about percentages on such a low number attempts across the league. The fact is there are only a handful of QBs in that opposing DCs have to respect in that regard and Allen is one of them. The threat of stretching the field is what’s important here. This isn't MLB.......low number stats/sample sizes matter in a very short 16-17 game season matter. Like TD passes thrown per game. Only 10 QB's even reached an average of 2 per start last year in a historic season for offense. A lot of big stats in the NFL are things that a great player only achieves just once or twice per game. Hitting on just 5-6 more deep balls per season might be the only difference between Allen being an NFL MVP and just being a top 5 QB...........connecting on just 1 more can be the difference between winning a game and losing it. I'm certain Allen is working on it this offseason......he was the worst at in 2019.........per the NFL's own stat service he was 14th last season..........this year I anticipate that he will be one of the best at it and then nobody will be talking about small sample sizes or diminishing the value of these big plays. 1 1
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