Is more 12 personnel key to unlocking the Bills run game? (Article)

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

 

Yeah, our passing game sucks. Need help everywhere on offense, running, passing, play-calling, .... yada, yada, yada

[JerseyBills]

17 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

Even if we had a pretty good run game last year, we might have beat KC. 

Our RBs couldn't do nothing and their defense knew it. 

It would have changed the Chiefs whole philosophy on defense but they sold out on our pass game nearly every play because they knew the RBs couldn't do nothing. 

Same with Baltimore. 

A solid run game would take our O to a whole new level 

[machine gun kelly]

I’m just saying guys, an addition at TE who can block and catch even more than another speed RB is a solid answer.  I want both, so hopefully Brenda can give us speed when we need it.

[BigBuff423]

16 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He started out the season with a much improved deep ball... then reverted back to it being a struggle again. 

 

Allens terrific but his deep ball still needs work. 

 

For reference here's an article:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/analysis-charts-show-how-josh-allen-improved-deep-middle-short/article_baf979b2-61a3-11eb-ab98-eb290c8aca80.html#tracking-source=in-article

 

"In 2020, Allen jumped to an adjusted completion rate of 47.2% on passes 20-plus yards downfield, factoring drops and throwaways. That ranked sixth best in the NFL among players who had at least 50 deep attempts and ninth best among starters overall, according to Pro Football Focus. It was the biggest improvement in the league. Allen’s 11 TDs on deep balls tied for fifth most."

 

I don't disagree with your statement, but I also wanted to put that statement into some objective context. It could read to some as though what you're saying is, "Allen's a great QB, despite his deep ball woes" and yet, information or data wouldn't support that statement entirely. So, while he is still a work in progress, I want to make sure we're giving credit where it's due for Allen in relation to the rest of the league. 

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I'd have to go back and rewatch the games after the Oakland game.... his deep ball looked terrific up until that game, and then regressed up until later in the season where it improved again. 

 

Ya don't say? I wonder if he was hurt and like wearing a body brace or something for those next few games. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by jeremy2020

[Matt_In_NH]

Most of us love the passing game we saw last year and don't want to take away from that.  I think what is important is that they can be a run first team if they have to be, we already know they can be a pass first team.  The NFL is as much about strategy, move-countermove as it is about having talent.  So when a team is able to take away the pass (which will not be that often but could be in a critical playoff game) they need to be able to run it down their throats.  You need to have the ability to have that identity at times.   I think the running game was ok at times and weak-ish at times last year.  It was not a dumpster fire....maybe Breida and his speed can bring something to it.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 personnel takes away Beasley in the slot. I’m on board with the idea of more speed at RB, a more versatile outside WR2 and upgrade to knox either in passing or blocking game works. 
 

That seems to be what the off-season moves are signaling imo. 

[hondo in seattle]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe KC ran a 4-1-6 much of the AFC championship game, blanketing our wideouts, daring us to run.   

 

And we couldn't.  

 

We need to do something different to energize the running game.  

[Shaw66]

16 hours ago, blacklabel said:

I think once the main five OL really sync in and lock it down we'll see some improvement. It's good to have continuity but last season only Dawkins started all 19 games (regular season + three postseason games). Feliciano was sidelined until mid-season, Ford went out early, it took Boettger a while to get up to speed, and Winters is...a guy, and then Morse missed a game or two, etc. I'm not sure who the starting five will be (my guess is Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams) but if they get time to gel together we should see some improvement.

 

On a side note, I wonder if anyone working for the Bills (or any team, really) ever sees one of these guys like Cover1 and thinks, "Huh, can't believe we didn't factor that in." I mean, I'm certain most teams are already crunching every number that can be crunched. But these freelance analysts sometimes come up with some wild stats and I've just kinda always wondered if there are any coaches or execs out there that pay attention to some of the stuff these guys crank out. 

This post, and Hapless's post right after it, are the important points. 

 

Remember that the Bills are about continuous improvement.  The Growth Mindset.  McDermott and Beane expect the offensive line to be better in 2021, and perhaps more importantly, the offensive line itself expects to be better.  They expect to run the same plays in 2021 that they ran in 2020 and create the running room they didn't create in 2020.  That's the growth mindset.   And McDermott has a knack for getting players to achieve the objectives they set for themselves.   So, I'm expecting the running game to be better in 2021, first and foremost, because the offensive line is going to perform better.   Either same the starting five, or a starting five that includes Ford, if he can win a spot, or a stud O lineman taken in the first round, or someone else who steps up.   Assuming Moss is healthy, he will be a bigger factor, and maybe Breida will win more playing time than his season in Miami would suggest.  Or maybe there's a rookie.   But the the running game will be better primarily because the offensive line will be better.  

 

And I think Hapless is on the money, too.  I don't think there's any reason that just because the Bills ran successfully with 12 personnel last season they will be able to have that same success if they double their usage of that scheme in 2021.   Smith is gone.  When he was the second tight end, it was more like they were running with an 8-man line than with what most teams do with two tight ends.   He was an extra tackle on the field.   There's no reason to assume that the Bills can have as much success running with 12 personnel when Knox and Hollister are the two tight ends on the field.   On the other hand, Smith on the field meant the Bills probably were running - with Knox and Hollister on the field, the Bills will not be showing a power front, but they WILL be showing two guys the pass defense has to worry about AND who at least can get in someone's way in the running game.  

 

Bottom line, I don't think 12-personnel the way the Bills look to be able to run it will be the answer to the running game.   It may help, but it won't be the answer.  The answer, if the Bills have it, will be in the Growth Mindset.  

[BigBuff423]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Need a bit of context with this stat.

 

Allen can throw a rope 20+ yards down the field... doesn't necessarily mean it was a deep ball throw aka similar to the deep balls Russel Wilson is so good at... like the one he connected on with Diggs against the Broncos.... or the ones he missed on against the Ravens in the playoffs(yes I know, the wind).... also a bad overthrow can be misinterpreted as a throwaway. 

 

I'd have to go back and rewatch the games after the Oakland game.... his deep ball looked terrific up until that game, and then regressed up until later in the season where it improved again. 

 

And, it might or it might not have something to do with it, but let's keep in mind the shoulder injury that took several weeks to heal. Those Titans and Chiefs games followed and it was ugly. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

This post, and Hapless's post right after it, are the important points. 

 

Remember that the Bills are about continuous improvement.  The Growth Mindset.  McDermott and Beane expect the offensive line to be better in 2021, and perhaps more importantly, the offensive line itself expects to be better.  They expect to run the same plays in 2021 that they ran in 2020 and create the running room they didn't create in 2020.  That's the growth mindset.   And McDermott has a knack for getting players to achieve the objectives they set for themselves.   So, I'm expecting the running game to be better in 2021, first and foremost, because the offensive line is going to perform better.   Either same the starting five, or a starting five that includes Ford, if he can win a spot, or a stud O lineman taken in the first round, or someone else who steps up.   Assuming Moss is healthy, he will be a bigger factor, and maybe Breida will win more playing time than his season in Miami would suggest.  Or maybe there's a rookie.   But the the running game will be better primarily because the offensive line will be better.  

 

And I think Hapless is on the money, too.  I don't think there's any reason that just because the Bills ran successfully with 12 personnel last season they will be able to have that same success if they double their usage of that scheme in 2021.   Smith is gone.  When he was the second tight end, it was more like they were running with an 8-man line than with what most teams do with two tight ends.   He was an extra tackle on the field.   There's no reason to assume that the Bills can have as much success running with 12 personnel when Knox and Hollister are the two tight ends on the field.   On the other hand, Smith on the field meant the Bills probably were running - with Knox and Hollister on the field, the Bills will not be showing a power front, but they WILL be showing two guys the pass defense has to worry about AND who at least can get in someone's way in the running game.  

 

Bottom line, I don't think 12-personnel the way the Bills look to be able to run it will be the answer to the running game.   It may help, but it won't be the answer.  The answer, if the Bills have it, will be in the Growth Mindset.  

 

I really hope you're right, Shaw66, and maybe you are.  

 

But remember that when Carol Dweck coined the term "Growth Mindset," she wasn't inventing a new concept that only McD has since taken advantage of in the NFL.  She was merely describing something that top performers were already doing.  To say it another way, I don't think McD promoting a Growth Mindset gives us a huge competitive advantage because it exists on other teams as well.  

 

To gain a competitive advantage in the run game, we need better scheme, better play-calling, and better players.  

[vincec]

If they wanted to play more 12 personnel then they should have brought in another good TE. At this point I don't really see the point in putting another mediocre tight end out at the expense of one of their good WRs.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I really hope you're right, Shaw66, and maybe you are.  

 

But remember that when Carol Dweck coined the term "Growth Mindset," she wasn't inventing a new concept that only McD has since taken advantage of in the NFL.  She was merely describing something that top performers were already doing.  To say it another way, I don't think McD promoting a Growth Mindset gives us a huge competitive advantage because it exists on other teams as well.  

 

To gain a competitive advantage in the run game, we need better scheme, better play-calling, and better players.  

I don't see anyone in the league doing what McD is doing so openly, and with such good results.   McDermott's players are openly reciting the mantra.   There are a lot of teams chasing free agents to get better - not the Bills.  

 

And I'll say what I say often - I don't know if what McD is doing will work, I'm just describing what he's doing and what the philosophy is.   This is the second season in a row when McBeane have said to the offensive line "It's up to you - we aren't bringing in anyone to replace you."   Last season Williams was the only addition, and he was late to the party.  They didn't draft anyone.   They said to the offensive line, "We got Diggs and we're expecting you to give time to Josh to find him."   And the offensive line responded.   They didn't bring in a fancy free agent offensive lineman or running back this year.   They're saying, again, "You guys who are already here can do what needs to be done."   

 

So, whether everyone else in the league is into the growth mindset or not, McDermott is counting on that philosophy to make his team better.  We'll see how it works out.  

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I really hope you're right, Shaw66, and maybe you are.  

 

But remember that when Carol Dweck coined the term "Growth Mindset," she wasn't inventing a new concept that only McD has since taken advantage of in the NFL.  She was merely describing something that top performers were already doing.  To say it another way, I don't think McD promoting a Growth Mindset gives us a huge competitive advantage because it exists on other teams as well.  

 

To gain a competitive advantage in the run game, we need better scheme, better play-calling, and better players.  

I’m guessing that you and Shaw66 are both correct in your thoughts, I think it would be counter productive to not throw a few wrinkles into the run game schemes, while using the O line we have. Being we will continue to be a pass first team, the run game needs to be effective when we choose that option, if they can do that the whole offense becomes more lethal, and productive, and as an aside that will make the defenses job just a bit easier. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't see anyone in the league doing what McD is doing so openly, and with such good results.   McDermott's players are openly reciting the mantra.   There are a lot of teams chasing free agents to get better - not the Bills.  

 

And I'll say what I say often - I don't know if what McD is doing will work, I'm just describing what he's doing and what the philosophy is.   This is the second season in a row when McBeane have said to the offensive line "It's up to you - we aren't bringing in anyone to replace you."   Last season Williams was the only addition, and he was late to the party.  They didn't draft anyone.   They said to the offensive line, "We got Diggs and we're expecting you to give time to Josh to find him."   And the offensive line responded.   They didn't bring in a fancy free agent offensive lineman or running back this year.   They're saying, again, "You guys who are already here can do what needs to be done."   

 

So, whether everyone else in the league is into the growth mindset or not, McDermott is counting on that philosophy to make his team better.  We'll see how it works out.  

 

Shaw, as I said, you may be right.  I do, in fact, believe that the culture McD has created in Buffalo is one of the best in the league and probably accounts for a couple wins each season.  

 

One thing I'll mention about the Growth Mindset is that emphasizes process over result.  It's no surprise that McD likes to say, "Trust the process." 

 

After a big win, an old school coach may want to celebrate the result.  But a Growth Mindset coach like McD will celebrate the processes that led to the result.  He might say something like, "We won because we trusted each other.  We won because we worked hard.  We won because we played together as a team..."   The Growth Mindset coach will remind his players of the behaviors and attitudes that produced the right result - thus reinforcing them.  It's great stuff.

 

But I think back on the KC game and feel like we need more talent on the OL, more talent at RB, and maybe better running schemes (I love Daboll but he's no Greg Roman when it comes to designing a rushing attack).  A Growth Mindset only gets you so far.  X's and O's still matter.  And athletes have genetic ceilings to their performance.  Sometimes you just need more talented guys.  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

57 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I’m guessing that you and Shaw66 are both correct in your thoughts, I think it would be counter productive to not throw a few wrinkles into the run game schemes, while using the O line we have. Being we will continue to be a pass first team, the run game needs to be effective when we choose that option, if they can do that the whole offense becomes more lethal, and productive, and as an aside that will make the defenses job just a bit easier. 

 

You're right.  I love the Bills as a pass-first team.  They have the right people at the skill positions for it.  But I don't like the Bills as a pass-only team. 

 

If you look at the offensive  linemen Beane has brought in, most of them are better at pass pro than run blocking.  That makes sense given the nature of our offense.

 

But if we completely neglect the running game, defenses will be able to hyper-focus on our passing attack like KC did.  

 

Imagine if the Bills had Kent Hull and Billy Shaw on the offensive line.  And Thurman in the backfield with Cookie as the fullback.  What would KC do then?  They couldn't sell out to stop the pass.  I'm exaggerating to make a point of course but ideally you want your offense to be capable at running inside and outside and throwing both short and long so the defense is forced to defend everything.  

[Don Otreply]

24 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You're right.  I love the Bills as a pass-first team.  They have the right people at the skill positions for it.  But I don't like the Bills as a pass-only team. 

 

If you look at the offensive  linemen Beane has brought in, most of them are better at pass pro than run blocking.  That makes sense given the nature of our offense.

 

But if we completely neglect the running game, defenses will be able to hyper-focus on our passing attack like KC did.  

 

Imagine if the Bills had Kent Hull and Billy Shaw on the offensive line.  And Thurman in the backfield with Cookie as the fullback.  What would KC do then?  They couldn't sell out to stop the pass.  I'm exaggerating to make a point of course but ideally you want your offense to be capable at running inside and outside and throwing both short and long so the defense is forced to defend everything.  

Earlier on in this thread, I remarked that our current run game was in essence not credible, and that we were in fact a one dimensional offense, and that it was exposed when all four of our starting WRs we’re playing injured, I also stated that our run game must be made to be effective when we chose those play options, otherwise the team will top out as a damn good passing team, but unable to go any further than we did this past season.  I do believe that BB & SM are not so arrogant as to not at least  attempt to improve that aspect of the offense. 

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

  A Growth Mindset only gets you so far.  X's and O's still matter.  And athletes have genetic ceilings to their performance.  Sometimes you just need more talented guys.  

 

 

But this is what I find so interesting:   As I said earlier, we've now seen Beane go through two free agent seasons without looking for an upgrade on the offensive line, or at least looking aggressively.   We've seen him upgrade the receiving corps two years in a row and do nothing about the offensive line.  That tells me that McBeane don't agree with you - they don't think the fix to the running game is upgrading talent on the offensive line.   Rookie olinemen typically don't make an impact, so they aren't looking to the draft to do it.  

 

That's why I say that they're relying on the Growth Mindset to make the offensive line better.  They seem to think that the genetic ceilings of the current players are high enough.  

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

Earlier on in this thread, I remarked that our current run game was in essence not credible, and that we were in fact a one dimensional offense, and that it was exposed when all four of our starting WRs we’re playing injured, I also stated that our run game must be made to be effective when we chose those play options, otherwise the team will top out as a damn good passing team, but unable to go any further than we did this past season.  I do believe that BB & SM are not so arrogant as to not at least  attempt to improve that aspect of the offense. 

I agree with this completely.   Beane said it after the season ended.  There's no doubt in my mind that they are working actively to improve the running game.  And McDermott told Daboll, and Daboll is working on it.   I will be amazed if we don't see an improved running game in 2021.