Is more 12 personnel key to unlocking the Bills run game? (Article)

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

The deep ball will be useful for certain, but if we do not make our run game more viable, last seasons results will be what we get annually. A real damn good passing team, that is one dimensional, and when that dimension has multiple injured/dinged up receivers...

 

We don’t want to be a run first team! What we absolutely need is a run game that has to be accounted for, currently we do not have that, and that makes us easier to defend against, especially in the post season. 
 

Luckily we have a GM and HC who know this, and will act upon this shortcoming accordingly. 
 

 

[BillsFan130]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Being able to run the ball effectively is important.

 

Even the most explosive, consistently great passing offenses sometimes get stifled. When this happens, it’s necessary to run the ball.

 

Furthermore, running the ball effectively is a great way to attack the Chiefs’ defense. 

 

Look no further than this year’s Super Bowl.

 

The Bucs running backs combined for 150 yards rushing, and that potency and offensive versatility was key in controlling the flow of the game.

 

Given that beating the Chiefs will likely be key to advancing to the Super Bowl, and given that our own head coach and GM have BOTH mentioned wanting to improve the run game, I would suggest that doing so will, in fact be a priority this season — and rightfully so.

Would you trade a lot of the Bills passing success for running the ball effectively?

 

I wouldn't personally.

 

Look no further than the Chiefs. They are not a good running team by any means, but they do just enough to make you pay if you don;t respect the run at all. We saw it first hand in October.

 

The Bills just need to run the ball respectively- Doesn't necessarily even have to be good.

[appoo]

Until the Bills get a 2nd viable TE, and they barely have 1, that's a moot point. Getting Friermuth would enable that, but hoping for one particular player in a draft isn't a great strategy.

 

The way the Bills loaded up on WRs, my feeling is they'll continue to go 11 and 10 personnel, and look the either EDGE or Corner in the draft

[Rockinon]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

They were effective precisely because they ran it so infrequently. If you make it a staple, defenses will adapt, no? With 4 thoroughbreds and an elite arm post the Sanders signing, I believe the Bills will actually be doing the opposite - going four wide.

 

Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust

If Diggs dont get you, Sanders will

If Sanders dont get you,  Beasley will

If Beasley dont get you, Davis will

 

The best offenses do not over-rely on trick plays - but actually are able to run their plays successfully even when the defense knows it is coming. Yes, we need to keep defenses honest by having both trick plays and an adequate underneath run / screen / jet sweep type game when defenses sell out to stop the pass by packing the secondary - but that is where Allen's legs (and hey even receiving skills:)) will contribute to the damage. Cant go away from what made it a successful offense last season, no?

 

 

12 personnel is not a trick play.  The thing that is interesting is that the Bills ran it with a big bruising TE last year and every time they did, the defense knew it was a run. I believe the whole point of wanting to run 12 personnel more often, is that you can also pass from that formation. That by itself will keep the defense guessing whether it is a run or a pass. Simply put, all Josh will have to do is watch to see if the LBs are creeping up or dropping back to determine if it will be a pass or a run. The TEs can stay in to block, or split out and catch a pass. This is a good plan because it keeps your intentions hidden from the defense. Which means both running and passing becomes more successful. It's a very shrewd move if true. It's also in line with what the more modern offenses do. Those TE's have value to the team by being multidimensional.

[Logic]

47 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Would you trade a lot of the Bills passing success for running the ball effectively?

 

I wouldn't personally.

 

Look no further than the Chiefs. They are not a good running team by any means, but they do just enough to make you pay if you don;t respect the run at all. We saw it first hand in October.

 

The Bills just need to run the ball respectively- Doesn't necessarily even have to be good.

There is no need to trade the Bills’ Passing success for running success. They can be good at both. It’s not an either/or proposition.

 

Suppose the Bills ran exactly as many running plays in 2021 as they did in 2020, but each of them goes for a couple yards more because they’re better at running the football. That’s what we’re talking about achieving here: Not running it more often, but running more effectively.

 

 

[eball]

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

I was discussing this with @Gugny and @BringBackFergy and we all agreed that the current rules are clear that only 11 men or less may be on the field at one time.  I think it would be exceedingly difficult to sneak on a 12th man unless that man was very small like a McKenzie or just isn't very noticeable like Reid Ferguson.  Neither one of these guys is much of a blocker so I think we should look elsewhere to jump start the running game like getting guys in space.

 

Someone who could make you miss in a phone booth is a good idea also.

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

There is no need to trade the Bills’ Passing success for running success. They can be good at both. It’s not an either/or proposition.

 

Suppose the Bills ran exactly as many running plays in 2021 as they did in 2020, but each of them goes for a couple yards more because they’re better at running the football. That’s what we’re talking about achieving here: Not running it more often, but running more effectively.

 

 

I do think there is a trade off though.

 

Bills excel with 10 and 11 personnel and if you go 12 personnel, then you are taking Gabe Davis, Beasley or Sanders out for most likely Jacob Hollister.

 

I think that directly impacts the passing game IMO

Edited March 29, 2021 by BillsFan130

[blacklabel]

I think once the main five OL really sync in and lock it down we'll see some improvement. It's good to have continuity but last season only Dawkins started all 19 games (regular season + three postseason games). Feliciano was sidelined until mid-season, Ford went out early, it took Boettger a while to get up to speed, and Winters is...a guy, and then Morse missed a game or two, etc. I'm not sure who the starting five will be (my guess is Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams) but if they get time to gel together we should see some improvement.

 

On a side note, I wonder if anyone working for the Bills (or any team, really) ever sees one of these guys like Cover1 and thinks, "Huh, can't believe we didn't factor that in." I mean, I'm certain most teams are already crunching every number that can be crunched. But these freelance analysts sometimes come up with some wild stats and I've just kinda always wondered if there are any coaches or execs out there that pay attention to some of the stuff these guys crank out. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

https://www.radio.com/wgr550/sports/bills/is-more-12-personnel-key-to-unlocking-bills-running-game?utm_campaign=sharebutton&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=WGRAM
 

“One schematic change the Bills may be looking to make, that could be a key to unlocking a more efficient running game, is running more “12-personnel.” In football lingo, the first number is the number of running backs on the field on a given play. The second is the number of tight ends. Since there are five eligible receivers on every play (not counting the quarterback), that leaves two wide receivers still on the field, as well. So 12-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers.

 

According to SharpFootballStats, the Bills ran this personnel grouping the second-least of any team in the NFL last season, on only 8% of their plays, behind only the New England Patriots at 2%.

However, as Erik Turner of Cover-1 breaks down, when they went to it, they were not only more successful running the ball (4.9 yards per-attempt), they still maintained their incredible high-efficiency in the passing game, at or near the top of the league in both yards per-attempt and touchdown percentage. Turner points out that it’s not only running 12-personnel that the Bills could benefit from, it’s running play-action passes specifically from that personnel grouping that could really maximize their efficiency.”

 

 

I think one reason the Bills may have been more successful is that 1-2 personnel put Lee Smith on the field

 

Knox is a very inconsistent blocker.  If he knows who he's supposed to block, he can do OK but he seems easily confused by who his assignment is in the case of any stunts or defensive movements.  And sometimes in space, he's just shoved to the side like a pesky chihuahua.

 

I haven't paid enough attention to Hollister to know whether or not he's an improvement.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

Did you miss the 2020 season bruh? Google it

[BruceVilanch]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

Did we not watch the same season? I feel like his deep ball was money this year.

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I haven't paid enough attention to Hollister to know whether or not he's an improvement.

I asked my good friend who is a die hard hawks fan but is objective and he said "Hollister is a WILLING blocker, he just can be moved off his spot by stronger LB's, but he'll always give 100% on his blocking assignments, he is a great outlet at 5-15 yards for receiving"

[The Jokeman]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think one reason the Bills may have been more successful is that 1-2 personnel put Lee Smith on the field

 

Knox is a very inconsistent blocker.  If he knows who he's supposed to block, he can do OK but he seems easily confused by who his assignment is in the case of any stunts or defensive movements.  And sometimes in space, he's just shoved to the side like a pesky chihuahua.

 

I haven't paid enough attention to Hollister to know whether or not he's an improvement.

Hollister is a H-back/move TE. I think he's a better guy on the move. He be good on 3rd and shorts as a guy to play under Sanders/Davis for quick hitters or as a check down option IMHO.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

He's a late 2nd early 3rd talent.

And he has a name 

[TheBeaneBandit]

38 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

And he has a name 

Pat Friedonions.

[billybrew1]

While I want Daboll to work on the run game as well, I think we need another receiver more than a back. And I want a starting Veteran TE that is a very dangerous receiver moreso than a blocker.

I'll take Ertz plus another speed WR before I take a new RB or blocking TE though I imagine Ertz can block pretty well.

 

We need to keep building that passing game, baby! I say still sign vets, Beano!

 

we also have to greatly improve our D. Our top two picks should be for defense. Maybe McFrazier can figure a way to make one of these super athletic DEs a rookie of significant impact in the first and then a corner in the second that can easily beat out our current LCB in the second. Somebody with balls skills yet loves contact.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Pat Friedonions.

Exactly 

[RyanC883]

12 personnel?   like I’m sure having an extra player on the field would help😜

[JohnNord]

9 hours ago, Logic said:

https://www.radio.com/wgr550/sports/bills/is-more-12-personnel-key-to-unlocking-bills-running-game?utm_campaign=sharebutton&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=WGRAM
 

“One schematic change the Bills may be looking to make, that could be a key to unlocking a more efficient running game, is running more “12-personnel.” In football lingo, the first number is the number of running backs on the field on a given play. The second is the number of tight ends. Since there are five eligible receivers on every play (not counting the quarterback), that leaves two wide receivers still on the field, as well. So 12-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers.

 

According to SharpFootballStats, the Bills ran this personnel grouping the second-least of any team in the NFL last season, on only 8% of their plays, behind only the New England Patriots at 2%.

However, as Erik Turner of Cover-1 breaks down, when they went to it, they were not only more successful running the ball (4.9 yards per-attempt), they still maintained their incredible high-efficiency in the passing game, at or near the top of the league in both yards per-attempt and touchdown percentage. Turner points out that it’s not only running 12-personnel that the Bills could benefit from, it’s running play-action passes specifically from that personnel grouping that could really maximize their efficiency.”

 

Looks like they need another TE on the roster then.  

[Rebel101]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

I agree but relax bro Josh was on point until the playoffs on all passes. He will continue to grow n settle. That kid has surpassed anyone’s best case scenario faster then possible. But I do agree ***** 12 personnnel. We need to be able to run the football in 11 10 n 0 n that will help perfect our passing game 

[machine gun kelly]

11 hours ago, jletha said:

The main thing with 12 personnel (mind you two TEs that can both block and catch. This was Lee Smiths problem) is that it puts the defense into a bind and gives the offense flexibility. If the defense tries to match 12 personnel with bigger guys to stop the run, then you send the TEs out to run routes. If they go small so prevent the TEs from catching the ball downfield then you run the ball.

 

It will not only help us open the run game it will add a massive wrinkle to the pass game that wasnt on tape last season. I am convinced our offense will be unstoppable with another premier TE.

Correct.  Sal was on the morning show at the end of the week with this very discussion.  He was asked by Howard about the impact on the run and Hollister.  Sal mentioned he should be an upgrade somewhat over Smith and Kroft in that Holister can block in 12 personnel for running plays and can catch in the same grouping.  This is also not going to be a surprise if we take one last run at Ertz at a more depreciated value.  The longer this goes towards the draft, the lower his value.  For the person asking how does it help the run, well most effective 12 personnel teams can run very well.  One example we should be familiar is the Patriots.  When they had Gronk amd the criminal, they also ran the ball very well.  So does the Ravens.

 

The opposing defenses have to account with bigger players if they start getting burned with a nickel approach.  They have to flip to base 4-3, or 3-4.  This allows the two WR’s still on the field to beat their guys.  We didn’t have the personnel for this last year, but we might have it now.

 

Ive been beating the drum fir a long time to invest in the TE position.  Knox has let me down in year 2, but maybe he grows into his position in year 3.  Last year I was bummed we didn’t make a stronger offer to Austin Hooper.  He could’ve changed the completion of the offense.  It’s not that you’re not going to roll with 11 the most, and from time to time 10, but you have much more flexibility if you have TE’s who can block in the run, catch intermediate passes and RB who are effective at screens.