Is more 12 personnel key to unlocking the Bills run game? (Article)

[Logic]

https://www.radio.com/wgr550/sports/bills/is-more-12-personnel-key-to-unlocking-bills-running-game?utm_campaign=sharebutton&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=WGRAM
 

“One schematic change the Bills may be looking to make, that could be a key to unlocking a more efficient running game, is running more “12-personnel.” In football lingo, the first number is the number of running backs on the field on a given play. The second is the number of tight ends. Since there are five eligible receivers on every play (not counting the quarterback), that leaves two wide receivers still on the field, as well. So 12-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers.

 

According to SharpFootballStats, the Bills ran this personnel grouping the second-least of any team in the NFL last season, on only 8% of their plays, behind only the New England Patriots at 2%.

However, as Erik Turner of Cover-1 breaks down, when they went to it, they were not only more successful running the ball (4.9 yards per-attempt), they still maintained their incredible high-efficiency in the passing game, at or near the top of the league in both yards per-attempt and touchdown percentage. Turner points out that it’s not only running 12-personnel that the Bills could benefit from, it’s running play-action passes specifically from that personnel grouping that could really maximize their efficiency.”

 

[Nextmanup]

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

[Logic]

13 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

Being able to run the ball effectively is important.

 

Even the most explosive, consistently great passing offenses sometimes get stifled. When this happens, it’s necessary to run the ball.

 

Furthermore, running the ball effectively is a great way to attack the Chiefs’ defense. 

 

Look no further than this year’s Super Bowl.

 

The Bucs running backs combined for 150 yards rushing, and that potency and offensive versatility was key in controlling the flow of the game.

 

Given that beating the Chiefs will likely be key to advancing to the Super Bowl, and given that our own head coach and GM have BOTH mentioned wanting to improve the run game, I would suggest that doing so will, in fact be a priority this season — and rightfully so.

[First Round Bust]

I read over the weekend an article in the Athletic by M Lombardi on Belicheck's (BB) FA shopping spree...re-loading...pointed-out that BB does this from time-to-time (Randy Moss, Wes Welker etc) esp when you look at how many FAs NE has lost...anyways...the key to his strategy has been consistent...focus on attacking and dominating the middle on both O and D and setting the edge D..so it makes me think that the Bills are not that...Morse is not a run-driving C, our run-game is more of an after-thought, our backs are not thrown to out of the backfield much...and our D issues are even bigger concerning the middle...stopping the run and esp middle pass coverages where the TEs seem to kill us repeatedly plus our edge is..well...old and not pass-rush effective...so with another off-season in the works...have we improved this strategy internally and more importantly given that Flores is a disciple of BB, and Miami drafts Pitts with the 6th pick, which makes sense given Tua's passing strengths (short-middle) and weaknesses (long) have we really addressed stopping it within the division ?

[Big Turk]

22 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

 

You mean like the one to Diggs against Indy in the playoff game?

[Matt_In_NH]

24 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

Did you wake up from a nap in 2019 and miss the 2020 season?  Your philosophy makes me think you are really into Madden.

[BigBuff423]

23 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

 

It's almost as if you missed the ENTIRE Bills' season for 2020...

 

Brown Miami TD, 50+ yarder to Diggs in Denver, the Diggs TD against Indy, Gabriel Davis 30+ yarders ON THE SIDELINE against Indy, the 50+ yard completion to Diggs in Vegas, I mean seriously!! No, not every long pass is going to be completed, it's why they're low percentage throws but this season, his drastic improvement was one of the major highlights of the Bills' Offense. So for you to make this statement is highly questionable at best.

[msw2112]

Improving the running game is a key to taking the next step.  Three reasons:

 

1.  It's difficult to throw the ball on windy days, so you need to be able to run it then.  See the first Chiefs game and the Ravens playoff game. 

 

2.  Some teams play good defense against the pass and/or there are times when the passing game is off (perhaps your QB or WRs are banged up), so you need to be able to run it then.  See the 2nd Chiefs game, and arguably the Tennessee game (was Josh's shoulder banged up?).  

 

3.  Sometimes game situations dictate you need to run the ball, such as when you have lead, it's late in the game and your opponent has been moving the ball well and scoring.  You need to run it down their throats, make them use up their timeouts and run out the clock.  The Bills did this well against the Steelers.  In most games, the Bills had large enough leads that this wasn't a factor, but it's needed in the playoffs.  Both Indy and Baltimore had chances to make late comebacks because we couldn't finish them off.  In both cases, our defense held, but the Ravens were down to a backup QB and the Colts got dangerously close.

 

I'm not at all complaining about the Bills offense or their season.  Both were terrific.  That said, an improved running game will make them even better and perhaps allow them to get to the Super Bowl and/or win it.  (Some improvement on defense would help too).

[Jauronimo]

I was discussing this with @Gugny and @BringBackFergy and we all agreed that the current rules are clear that only 11 men or less may be on the field at one time.  I think it would be exceedingly difficult to sneak on a 12th man unless that man was very small like a McKenzie or just isn't very noticeable like Reid Ferguson.  Neither one of these guys is much of a blocker so I think we should look elsewhere to jump start the running game like getting guys in space.

[BringBackFergy]

6 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I was discussing this with @Gugny and @BringBackFergy and we all agreed that the current rules are clear that only 11 men or less may be on the field at one time.  I think it would be exceedingly difficult to sneak on a 12th man unless that man was very small like a McKenzie or just isn't very noticeable like Reid Ferguson.  Neither one of these guys is much of a blocker so I think we should look elsewhere to jump start the running game like getting guys in space.

Not really sure why everyone tries to cheat the system. Hey, I'm all for using as many players as we can. But to suggest that we should knowingly cheat.....well, that's where I draw the line.

[jletha]

The main thing with 12 personnel (mind you two TEs that can both block and catch. This was Lee Smiths problem) is that it puts the defense into a bind and gives the offense flexibility. If the defense tries to match 12 personnel with bigger guys to stop the run, then you send the TEs out to run routes. If they go small so prevent the TEs from catching the ball downfield then you run the ball.

 

It will not only help us open the run game it will add a massive wrinkle to the pass game that wasnt on tape last season. I am convinced our offense will be unstoppable with another premier TE.

[aristocrat]

Grab the penn state tight end first round 

[Mr. WEO]

so all the Bills need is a pair of quality TEs?

 

 

 

 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

You mean like the one to Diggs against Indy in the playoff game?

That was what, 40 yards? I think we're talking about about true deep shots.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

https://www.radio.com/wgr550/sports/bills/is-more-12-personnel-key-to-unlocking-bills-running-game?utm_campaign=sharebutton&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=WGRAM
 

“One schematic change the Bills may be looking to make, that could be a key to unlocking a more efficient running game, is running more “12-personnel.” In football lingo, the first number is the number of running backs on the field on a given play. The second is the number of tight ends. Since there are five eligible receivers on every play (not counting the quarterback), that leaves two wide receivers still on the field, as well. So 12-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers.

 

According to SharpFootballStats, the Bills ran this personnel grouping the second-least of any team in the NFL last season, on only 8% of their plays, behind only the New England Patriots at 2%.

However, as Erik Turner of Cover-1 breaks down, when they went to it, they were not only more successful running the ball (4.9 yards per-attempt), they still maintained their incredible high-efficiency in the passing game, at or near the top of the league in both yards per-attempt and touchdown percentage. Turner points out that it’s not only running 12-personnel that the Bills could benefit from, it’s running play-action passes specifically from that personnel grouping that could really maximize their efficiency.”

 

They were effective precisely because they ran it so infrequently. If you make it a staple, defenses will adapt, no? With 4 thoroughbreds and an elite arm post the Sanders signing, I believe the Bills will actually be doing the opposite - going four wide.

 

Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust

If Diggs dont get you, Sanders will

If Sanders dont get you,  Beasley will

If Beasley dont get you, Davis will

 

The best offenses do not over-rely on trick plays - but actually are able to run their plays successfully even when the defense knows it is coming. Yes, we need to keep defenses honest by having both trick plays and an adequate underneath run / screen / jet sweep type game when defenses sell out to stop the pass by packing the secondary - but that is where Allen's legs (and hey even receiving skills:)) will contribute to the damage. Cant go away from what made it a successful offense last season, no?

 

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by IgotBILLStopay

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

That was what, 40 yards? I think we're talking about about true deep shots.

 

Like Allen to Diggs for 55 yards against the Broncos?

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/josh-allen-unloads-perfect-55-yard-bomb-to-stefon-diggs-bills-at-broncos

Edited March 29, 2021 by Big Turk

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

They were effective precisely because they ran it so infrequently. If you make it a staple, defenses will adapt, no? With 4 thoroughbreds and an elite arm post the Sanders signing, I believe the Bills will actually be doing the opposite - going four wide.

 

Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust

If Diggs dont get you, Sanders will

If Sanders dont get you,  Beasley will

If Beasley dont get you, Davis will

 

The best offenses do not over-rely on trick plays - but actually are able to run their plays successfully even when the defense knows it is coming. Yes, we need to keep defenses honest by having both trick plays and an adequate underneath run / screen / jet sweep type game when defenses sell out to stop the pass by packing the secondary - but that is where Allen's legs (and hey even receiving skills:)) will contribute to the damage. Cant go away from what made it a successful offense last season, no?

 

 

Thanks for the response.

As the article points out, even DOUBLING the amount of 12 personnel they ran last year would STILL have them running 10 and 11 personnel a lot more than the average NFL team. The stats below compare 2020 to what 2021 would look like if they ran twice as much 12 personnel.

 

2020:
- 10-personnel: 15% (2nd most in NFL)
- 11-personnel: 71% (6th most in NFL)
- 12-personnel: 8% (2nd least in NFL)

2021 (projected):
- 10-personnel: 12% (still 2nd most in NFL)
- 11-personnel: 67% (would be 9th most n NFL)
- 12-personnel: 15% (5% below NFL average)


As you can see, they'd still be running the second most 4-wideout sets in the league. They'd still be top ten in 3-wideout sets, too.

And also, as the article points out, the increased 12 personnel usage wouldn't have to mean they were sacrificing pass game productivity. They could still be quite effective passing out of 12 by running it well and then using play action, as they did in 2020. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

I agree that we need a home run hitter, but I disagree that we don’t have to unlock the run game.  If our offense is completely one dimensional, we’ll likely fall short of winning a Lombardi.  DCs are pretty good at scheming if the O can ONLY run or pass. Especially once you get into the playoffs.  
 

it’s in our best interest to improve our run game to an extent 

 

[BuffaloBill]

6 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't see the point in unlocking the run game.

 

I see the point in making our passing game better, more explosive, and more consistent.

 

We need home run hitter speed threats on offense and until Josh Allen can actually hit a deep pass, it's always going to be limited.

 

 

 

 

What team were you watching last season?

5 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

I was discussing this with @Gugny and @BringBackFergy and we all agreed that the current rules are clear that only 11 men or less may be on the field at one time.  I think it would be exceedingly difficult to sneak on a 12th man unless that man was very small like a McKenzie or just isn't very noticeable like Reid Ferguson.  Neither one of these guys is much of a blocker so I think we should look elsewhere to jump start the running game like getting guys in space.

 

You do realize your mistake here? @Gugny & @BringBackFergy are hardly upstanding and trustworthy citizens. They are known to hang out together with other unseemly individuals in the 518 area code. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Grab the penn state tight end first round 

He's a late 2nd early 3rd talent.