Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?

[machine gun kelly]

So many guys have stated in lots of threads they are going to matchup need and BPA in certain categories and whatever Beane can do as you have to want a trade partner, but we don’t have much capital to do it.  So most likely they have a list for the following categories, Edge, RB, TE, O Line maybe, and CB.  
 

He’ll prioritize in rank order and see what’s left at 30.  He could maybe muster up to get to 24-26, but he’s not getting to the top 10.  I would love it if we only selected 4 players form the 7 slots by moving up, but the two 5’s, 6, and a 7 are going to move us up very far.

 

We’re probably going to end up where we land.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, ganesh said:

Drafted TEs don't make that big impact usually in their rookie season

 

Drafted TEs are not usually Kyle Pitts. He is the best tight end prospect in a long, long time. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

And we absolutely know that the Bills had Allen in their top three QBs, of course, since they picked him with only two already gone. But it's never been proven that they didn't prefer Darnold or Mayfield to Allen. We may strongly suspect it. We may hope it's true. But we don't know it.

 

It was Allen or Darnold. I have that on very good authority. Mayfield and Rosen were off their board, they didn't like Lamar, if they flamed out on both (and at one point the rumour mill was very much that Allen at #1 to Cleveland was possible) then I think they'd have taken Tremaine at #12 and moved back with the other pick and possible taken Rudolph or Lauletta in round 2/3. 

 

But Beane said recently on that Collinsworth podcast thing that the week before the draft they were pretty certain Mayfield was going to be #1 and most people believed the Jets loved Darnold so on draft night itself, I actually think it probably was "all about Josh Allen" for Buffalo. They talked to Cleveland about #4 but believed they were making a pick, they had a deal ready to go with Denver for #5 but Elway pulled it because Chubb was there, they spoke to the Colts but Ballard was not for moving and the Bills were pretty sure he wasn't taking a QB (still had Luck). He talked at pretty good length on the process recently (sure it was on that Collinsworth thing) and while of course had it not worked out they would still have made picks and done something else.... I think Josh Allen might be the rare case of where Brandon Beane sat down in his chair in the War Room 5 minutes before the draft and said to himself "it is Josh Allen or bust."

Edited March 30, 2021 by GunnerBill

[maryland-bills-fan]

The Bills have covered their holes for this next season with free agents.  Remember that they got to the AFL finals last year, have lost nobody essential AND have picked up improvements in the second team players.  Many people feel that there are three early draft day groupings.  The top roughly 15 players, the 16-50 players (top 50) taken and then the late 2nd round and the 3rd round players. .. .. 

 

PLAN A  With pick #30 (620) and #61 (292) the Bills  could (by PFM) trade those two picks for two picks in roughly the top third of the second round , #13th & #14th= overall #44 and #45  (~456 points each).   .... That would give them two players in that second tier. .. ...  ... They would draft for high ceiling and low floor and would hope they would get adequate substitute players for this year and better than average players in the future.  Walter Football has the following players ranking in that area (although several of these players will definately go much higher)

 

36.

Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis. Previously: 36 Avg. 23.7 per 31

37.

Joe Tryon, DE, Washington. Previously: 37 Avg. 35.2 per 31

38.

Trey Smith, G, Tennessee. Previously: 38 Avg. 36.8 per 31

39.

Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan. Previously: 39 Avg. 23.6 per 21

40.

Dayo Odeyingbo, DE, Vanderbilt. Previously: 40 Avg. 46.4 per 7

41.

Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern. Previously: 41 Avg. 54 per 7

42.

Jay Tufele, DT, USC. Previously: 42 Avg. 42 per 31

43.

Jayson Oweh, OLB, Penn State. Previously: 68 Avg. 64.4 per 7

44.

Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington. Previously: 44 Avg. 44 per 9

45.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State. Previously: 45 Avg. 45 per 31

46.

Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 31

47.

Marques Stevenson, WR, Houston. Previously: 47 Avg. 40.4 per 31

48.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota. Previously: 48 Avg. 48 per 31

49.

Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 49 per 11

50.

Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina. Previously: 50 Avg. 59.1 per 7

 

 

PLAN B

The next Bill''s pick is #93, which is almost a 4th round pick.   An alternate strategy would be to stay at #30 (take a possible starting rookie CB?) and trade the #93 3rd round pick AND the #61 2nd round pick to move up those to #48 overall, which is #16 in the second round.

 

Either of these strategies could give the  Bills one of the top 5 centers or guards Or a high ceiling DE OR an improved running back.

Edited March 30, 2021 by maryland-bills-fan

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think there is a 90% chance the trade up.  Like the OP said, they tend to target guys then find a way to get them.

[Pete]

Yes, I do believe the Bills have players targeted each round.  I am sure Beane has run through most every scenario.

 

The first pick of 2nd round is one of the most coveted picks. 

 

Pick 30 is action spot.  Some team will want to jump ahead of 2nd round, and select highly graded player that slipped.  I'm guessing someone trades up for OL.

 

Beane loves his draft picks.  Another guess-Beane adds a 4th rounder.  I could see Beane trading back and adding 2022 picks.

 

Based on all the above, unless a highly rated player on Bills board falls to us, I am almost certain Beane capitalizes on power position and parlays 30 selection into multiple draft picks, targeting predetermined players at positions of need

[Mr. WEO]

as long as he doesn't have "the 'it' factor"...

[Big Turk]

20 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I agree that it's a strange draft, but I do think they've targeted a player.  They've spent the offseason on this.  

 

Targeting a guy and him actually being there to draft at 30 is a lot different than it is at 10. Much higher percentage chance of teams jumping over you to take a player or another team also valuing that player highly as well and taking him before you.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

20 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

 

I agree with many of the posts in that picking at 30, way too many variables to have "their guy"  Even with the Josh Allen pick, likely they had maybe 3 "guys" picked out, Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, maybe even Rosen and felt confident that if they could trade up to the top 5 or 6, one of those would be available as the were really only 2 or 3 teams in the top 8 that really wanted/needed a QB; Cleveland, Giants, and Jets.   And the Giants  weren't taking a QB.  Barring a bunch of trades, the odds were in their favor and not many teams had the draft capital the Bills had that year to as easily move up.

 

In hindsight, the one wild card there was Indy, they didn't need a QB, they were all set with Andrew Luck for years to come.  Little did they know one year later he'd be done.  I'm sure if they had known, the 2018 draft would have been much different.

[papazoid]

every team says they "got their guy".....no matter if they trade up, down or stay where they are.

 

what are they supposed to say.... "there were other guys still on the board we liked better"......said no one ever

 

the draft is all about providing hope to their fan base.

[Governor]

We likely have 2 plans in place. There’s probably 2-3 players that we’d feel obligated to move up to 26 for. If those players are gone, I suspect we’d move down and take the RB from NC, but then trade back up and take another player shortly after.

[TC in St. Louis]

9 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

A lot of supposition there.  So the Bills found out in advance what Cleveland and Jets were doing  because teams like to share info on their number 1 picks?  Yet the Bills managed to not share who they were getting.     Cool.

I think the key phrase is "I believe."  I think they got their guy.  That's my opinion.  Obviously people disagree.  This is a forum for opinions.  And by the way, I agree that you may be right.  But I do believe Josh was their guy.  

[Jobot]

Every team has a draft board that lists every player from 1 through whatever.. Unless you're sitting at #1, nothing is guaranteed.

[section122]

20 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

 

20 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

I was just about to post that too. Beane never said Josh was "Their Guy," even when explicitly asked.

 

20 hours ago, BTB said:

I'm said this all along.  Not only this, but people act like Beane is a mind reader and knew Josh would still be there at 7.  I'd love to know what the plan was if Josh went in the top 5 along with Baker and Darnold.

 

14 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

The Bills aren't going to tell anybody before the draft they're taking Josh Allen, but they wanted Josh Allen, and we got him.  I actually wanted them to get Mayfield, and I'm glad they didn't.  

 

13 hours ago, prissythecat said:

A lot of supposition there.  So the Bills found out in advance what Cleveland and Jets were doing  because teams like to share info on their number 1 picks?  Yet the Bills managed to not share who they were getting.     Cool.

 

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

You're nuts if you think you, the Bills or anyone but the GM of the Browns "knew" Josh Allen wasn't going #1 to Cleveland. They may have had a strong opinion about it. But they absolutely didn't "know" it. They simply didn't.

 

They didn't know any of this stuff you're saying they knew.

 

They may well have thought the top three picks would go the way they went and hoped nobody would trade up to #4

 

You also are mistaken about the details of the Denver deal. Denver didn't tell them Chubb was their guy. They just said they had a guy and if he was still there they wouldn't make the trade. Turned out the guy was Chubb, and Buffalo might well have suspected that. But yet again, they didn't know.

 

And we absolutely know that the Bills had Allen in their top three QBs, of course, since they picked him with only two already gone. But it's never been proven that they didn't prefer Darnold or Mayfield to Allen. We may strongly suspect it. We may hope it's true. But we don't know it.

 

I can;t believe all of you forgot about this story:

 

 

The Bills draft board WAS known due to an idiot employee.  Including details of the trade up with Den for any of Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.

 

The only caveat to this is Mayfield had his visit 3 days after this so it may have played slightly with the board.

[Governor]

9 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can;t believe all of you forgot about this story:

 

 

The Bills draft board WAS known due to an idiot employee.  Including details of the trade up with Den for any of Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.

 

The only caveat to this is Mayfield had his visit 3 days after this so it may have played slightly with the board.

But I was told by this board there’s never been a leak. Any leak was on purpose due to “wizardry” by Beane.

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was Allen or Darnold. I have that on very good authority. Mayfield and Rosen were off their board, they didn't like Lamar, if they flamed out on both (and at one point the rumour mill was very much that Allen at #1 to Cleveland was possible) then I think they'd have taken Tremaine at #12 and moved back with the other pick and possible taken Rudolph or Lauletta in round 2/3. 

 

But Beane said recently on that Collinsworth podcast thing that the week before the draft they were pretty certain Mayfield was going to be #1 and most people believed the Jets loved Darnold so on draft night itself, I actually think it probably was "all about Josh Allen" for Buffalo. They talked to Cleveland about #4 but believed they were making a pick, they had a deal ready to go with Denver for #5 but Elway pulled it because Chubb was there, they spoke to the Colts but Ballard was not for moving and the Bills were pretty sure he wasn't taking a QB (still had Luck). He talked at pretty good length on the process recently (sure it was on that Collinsworth thing) and while of course had it not worked out they would still have made picks and done something else.... I think Josh Allen might be the rare case of where Brandon Beane sat down in his chair in the War Room 5 minutes before the draft and said to himself "it is Josh Allen or bust."

 

Beane wrote himself a note the janitor found in the trash can: "Josh Allen.  No Matter What."

51 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can;t believe all of you forgot about this story:

 

 

The Bills draft board WAS known due to an idiot employee.  Including details of the trade up with Den for any of Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.

 

The only caveat to this is Mayfield had his visit 3 days after this so it may have played slightly with the board.

 

Wow...Bills would have sent the pick they used on Edmunds to Denver if that happened...

[prissythecat]

5 hours ago, section122 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can;t believe all of you forgot about this story:

 

 

The Bills draft board WAS known due to an idiot employee.  Including details of the trade up with Den for any of Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.

 

The only caveat to this is Mayfield had his visit 3 days after this so it may have played slightly with the board.

 

Thats not proof of anything lol.  What kind of organization would leave a confidential draft board in a conference room that was open to all employees to see.

Edited March 30, 2021 by prissythecat
sentence edit

[Putin]

On 3/29/2021 at 9:11 PM, Rocket94 said:

Watching film of Phillips is intriguing. He has a lot of instinctual disruptive tendencies. I have the same feeling about him. 

He just looks like a perfect DE for McD defense 

[Rocket94]

30 minutes ago, Putin said:

He just looks like a perfect DE for McD defense 

Yes! The more I look at his movements on the field, the more I see it. I am a little concerned about his injury history, but he seems to have come around.

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was Allen or Darnold. I have that on very good authority. Mayfield and Rosen were off their board, they didn't like Lamar, if they flamed out on both (and at one point the rumour mill was very much that Allen at #1 to Cleveland was possible) then I think they'd have taken Tremaine at #12 and moved back with the other pick and possible taken Rudolph or Lauletta in round 2/3. 

 

But Beane said recently on that Collinsworth podcast thing that the week before the draft they were pretty certain Mayfield was going to be #1 and most people believed the Jets loved Darnold so on draft night itself, I actually think it probably was "all about Josh Allen" for Buffalo. They talked to Cleveland about #4 but believed they were making a pick, they had a deal ready to go with Denver for #5 but Elway pulled it because Chubb was there, they spoke to the Colts but Ballard was not for moving and the Bills were pretty sure he wasn't taking a QB (still had Luck). He talked at pretty good length on the process recently (sure it was on that Collinsworth thing) and while of course had it not worked out they would still have made picks and done something else.... I think Josh Allen might be the rare case of where Brandon Beane sat down in his chair in the War Room 5 minutes before the draft and said to himself "it is Josh Allen or bust."

 

 

I'd argue more like, "Assuming things go the way we think they will for the first two QBs, it's Josh Allen or bust."

 

Except for what you're saying about Darnold or Allen (which makes sense, I think), and Lamar, and your speculation about Lauletta or Rudolph, this is much what they have said before. Yeah, I heard the Collinsworth podcast too, thought it was good.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Thurman#1