Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?

[ghostwriter]

I don’t think we really have the ammunition to move around too much.. I think that Beane did a great job at patching up holes on the roster and I think at this point he goes BPA.

[John from Riverside]

Not at 30......I bet they have a "group of guys"

[dje85]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

 I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that. 

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

 

I don't believe we got every guy we wanted in each round. It's just not realistic. In the early first in the Allen draft I believe we did but the later rounds I'm sure we had a few guys in mind and after one or two of the potential guys get taken that's when we made our move to make sure we got one of our handful of guys that we felt was value at that point.  

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

I think that’s exactly wrong.  This FO is too smart and has done too well overall to make the horrific mistake of falling in love with any single player.

 

They were aggressive acquiring players to fill cornerstone positions, but it was about that and not having to have a specific player.  We don’t even know if Allen was their #1 QB that year.  And we will likely never know.  I’ll tell you this though, in that draft it would have been very unlikely to have unanimous agreement in ranking QB prospects.  They’ve done very well and probably got a little lucky too.  Don’t overthink it. 

[Rochesterfan]

I don’t for a second believe the Bills target “1” guy.  They put together a board and have groups of guys that they identified.  It is not 1 guy from prior to the draft until their pick.  That is a Raider pick drafting the fastest WR even if he has a lower round grade.

 

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

 

That is my feeling on how the draft works.  Almost no one would ever target 1 guy and be all in on that unless you are sitting at #1.

[maddenboy]

8 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

i think this is how it works for McBeane.

 

They dont think "we are gonna get mr. X no matter what."  They think "these are the 3-5 guys we need.  We damn sure better get one of them, no matter what."

 

I think the only way they move down from 30 is if more than one is there.

 

I do NOT think they are gonna sit at 30 and hope a quality player falls to them.  They arent interested in "a quality player."  They are interested in players they think will be true NFL players, and who can contribute THIS year. 

 

The discussion in the TBD draft thread v1 about JOK sounds about right.  IF they think he will be on the field enuf to justify the pick, that's somebody I could see them moving up for.  A potentially special player.

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

Dawkins, Knox, Zay Jones and Cody Ford  - yes I think they had their guy picked out. But not Josh Allen - since the highest slot the Bills could hope for was 5th and Cleveland could have picked Allen. Dorsey kept the Mayfield pick  very close to his chest. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I agree that it's a strange draft, but I do think they've targeted a player.  They've spent the offseason on this.  

I hope not. I hope they have picked 10 or 15 guys, because there is no telling who they will be able to pick.

 

They just need to follow their draft board. Pick the guy with the best value who has the potential to help the team.

[IgotBILLStopay]

I dont think they have their guy picked out at all - I am sure they have mid-first round rated guys and a couple should be left at 30 - and they will likely pick  the best out of those.

 

That being said, if they have a guy rated say a top 15 pick and he slides to, say, 23 or more, Beane might go up and get him. As of now it appears at least one of Phillips, Rousseau and Paye will be available at 24.

Edited March 29, 2021 by IgotBILLStopay

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Frat-Train said:

Vontae Mack...

 

No matter what.

I approve this message.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Matt Parrino on Twitter: "Alabama LB Dylan Moses says that he's talked to the #Bills quite a bit, three or four times." / Twitter

👀👀

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Dawkins, Knox, Zay Jones and Cody Ford  - yes I think they had their guy picked out. But not Josh Allen - since the highest slot the Bills could hope for was 5th and Cleveland could have picked Allen. Dorsey kept the Mayfield pick  very close to his chest. 

 

He did although Beane said in a recent interview that about a week before the draft the Bills were 99% sure Cleveland were taking Baker. It only really leaked as a media rumour in the final 3 or 4 hours but it feels as though teams were on it a bit sooner.

 

Edit: on the top bit I think they were just surprised Cody was there. Their assumption was he'd be gone in round 1 when he was still there early day 2 he was sticking out on their board and at a position of need. Zay was a definite individual target, I think Knox was more there was a decent little tight end group that year and there was a rush on them and he was kind of the last one there. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

I don’t for a second believe the Bills target “1” guy.  They put together a board and have groups of guys that they identified.  It is not 1 guy from prior to the draft until their pick.  That is a Raider pick drafting the fastest WR even if he has a lower round grade.

 

The Bills may move up if they identify that the last guy in a particular band/group is available and within striking distance - if they believe the drop off is significant, but they did not target that player from the beginning.

 

For Example: @GunnerBill believes there are about 17-18 true 1st round players (I believe - I am not presuming to speak for him).  If the Bills identify it similarly and we get to pick 25 or so and 1 (or 2) of those guys are left - then the Bills may try to make a trade to get that specific guy because the drop off to the next group is significant, but they were not targeting that player - that was how the board fell.

 

That is my feeling on how the draft works.  Almost no one would ever target 1 guy and be all in on that unless you are sitting at #1.

That is why picks are BPA at positions of need the vast majority of the time, and why a strict very BPA is a rare bird, it’s need driven, and every teams idea of BPA differs by that teams current personnel situation.

[maddenboy]

Something just occurred to me, reading the thread about using more 12 personnel.

 

The linked article talks about Pats*** adding 2 TEs.  Then it assumed (for argument) that Miami is going to take TE Pitts at #6.

 

Since winning the division is the surest path to the playoffs, I wonder if McBeane will draft based on who NE drafts (QB Zack Jones maybe), and who Fish draft (Pitts maybe), before deciding what position or what player is needed.  (JESTS are irrelevant)

 

If Fish take Pitts, we really need to be able to cover TEs.  Maybe more than pass rush, since throws to TEs are usually quick reads.  OTOH, if Fish take OL or WR, then CB2 might be more of a priority, and especially one who is great at Zone (which if probably the only type of CB we are interested in, anyway).

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

I have no idea who their guy might be, but there will be a guy at 30 who the Bills believe should have gone at 15, and they'll be thrilled to get him. 

[RyanC883]

I think, being at 30, we have two lists: (1) first list, players we would trade-up for, this is the "our guy" sort of list: say if a LB, or CB we have a very high grade on, or Pitts falls to a certain range.  (2) players we want at 30, and if none are there, we try to trade down to acquire more picks.  

Edited March 29, 2021 by RyanC883

[prissythecat]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

[WhoTom]

1 minute ago, prissythecat said:

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

 

I was just about to post that too. Beane never said Josh was "Their Guy," even when explicitly asked.

[LabattBlue]

6 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

What makes you think that Josh was "the guy"?   The only thing we know with certainty from the draft is that Lamar and Josh Rosen weren't their guys since they were passed over.  "The guy" could very well have been Darnold or Mayfield.

I'm said this all along.  Not only this, but people act like Beane is a mind reader and knew Josh would still be there at 7.  I'd love to know what the plan was if Josh went in the top 5 along with Baker and Darnold.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

4 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?