Chances Watson lands in AFCE

[Inigo Montoya]

Dolphins;  The draft pick swapping that the Dolphins engaged in last week makes is less likely that they will be in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes going forward.  If they were really trying to swing a trade with Houston I don't think they would have traded away the #3 pick where one of the Big 4 draft day QBs is likely to be selected.  They will probably all be gone by the time the Dolphins pick with their new #6 pick.  Anything can happen but I think this lessens the chance Watson goes to South Beach.  It looks like Miami is going to roll with Tua instead of grabbing one of the blue chip QBs this year.  I think they were the biggest threat to land Watson in our division.

 

Impact on Bills; I think that's obviously good news for the Bills.  Tua might continue to develop and become a solid franchise QB, but he sure didn't look like one last season.  There will be more talent around Tua to support him but I'd rather keep Watson out of Miami.  If you put Watson in Miami I think its a real dog fight with them to win the AFCE this year.  The Phins' roster has some talent and could make a run with a true franchise QB under center.  Fortunately it looks like they are rolling with Tua. 

 

Jets;  The Jets are still sitting there at #2 and according to media reports are all in on Zach Wilson from BYU.  They do have the draft capital to swing a trade with Houston (two 1st rounders this year and next) but Joe Douglas seems to have a head on his shoulders and I'd be surprised if he trades a bunch of 1st rounders to Houston to bring in a QB with a big contract when he can lock up a solid young QB on a rookie contract for years and still have a lot of draft capital to restock a roster that is bereft of talent.  On the whole, I think the smart money is on the Jets using their two 1st rounders, their 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders to draft a young franchise QB and put a supporting cast around him. 

 

Impact on Bills;  I'm not sure which scenario is better for the Bills, the Jets trading the store and mortgaging their future for Watson who is a stud and having no team around him, or the Jets rolling the dice on a rookie QB and upgrading the roster.  I could argue both sides of that equation but ultimately I think keeping Watson out of the ACFE is the best outcome for the Bills.  Could Watson overcome the Jet's franchise dysfunction single handedly?  Maybe.  But it would take a couple of seasons to get that roster stocked with enough talent to really make them a threat.  Drafting a franchise QB is always a roll of the dice and there is a chance the Jets won't have the institutional discipline to make it work, ala Sam Darnold.  Lets hope the Jets stay put at #2 and draft a QB.

 

Patriots;   The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds in this year's draft including the #15 overall selection in the 1st round.  The Patriots have been spending money like drunken sailors in free agency and while the en vogue take is that you can't win by spending big in free agency, I look at the Pat's roster now compared to the end of the last season and I can't imagine how they are not going to be dramatically better this year.  All they need now is a quarterback....  I could see Bill swinging for the fences and sending three 1st rounders for Watson.  With the scandal swirling around Watson I think his price has gone down.  Would there be a lot of snarking and commentary about the Watson / Kraft massage stuff, yep, but I don't see that stopping them from making the move if it's there to be made. The Pat's and Texan's front offices are connected and a deal could get done.

 

Impact on Bills;  This is the nightmare scenario.  I think it would be a coin toss about winning the division if Watson ends up in New England.  Belichick's defense along with Deshaun Watson's passing would be a deadly combo.  They still have money to go out and buy some B list wide receivers that are still on the market like Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Dede Westbrook, and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Bill doesn't have ten more years to coach.  He needs to start winning now.  Jimmy G would help that but not like Watson would.  I don't expect Cam to be under center Week 1.  Let's pray it's not Watson.

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[Doc]

Zero.

[MiltonWaddams]

Nice write-up. At this time of the year, all we can ask for is a well thought out a post and you have achieved that. The Watson situation is interesting on so many levels. I don’t think he’s getting traded as long as this court case is in play. That’s good news for us.

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Dolphins;  The draft pick swapping that the Dolphins engaged in last week makes is less likely that they will be in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes going forward.  If they were really trying to swing a trade with Houston I don't think they would have traded away the #3 pick where one of the Big 4 draft day QBs is likely to be selected.  They will probably all be gone by the time the Dolphins pick with their new #6 pick.  Anything can happen but I think this lessens the chance Watson goes to South Beach.  It also looks like Miami is going to roll with Tua instead of grabbing one of the blue chip QBs this year. 

 

Impact on Bills; I think that's obviously good news for the Bills.  Tua might continue to develop and become a solid franchise QB, but he sure didn't look like one last season.  There will be more talent around Tua to support him but I'd rather keep Watson out of Miami.  If you put Watson in Miami I think its a real dog fight with them to win the AFCE this year.  The Phins' roster has some talent and could make a run with a true franchise QB under center.  Fortunately it looks like they are rolling with Tua. 

 

Jets;  The Jets are still sitting there at #2 and according to media reports are all in on Zach Wilson from BYU.  They do have the draft capital to swing a trade with Houston but Joe Douglas seems to have a head on his shoulders and I'd be surprised if he trades a bunch of 1st rounders to Houston to bring in a QB with a big contract when he can lock up a solid young QB on a rookie contract for years and still have a lot of draft capital to restock a roster that is bereft of talent.  On the whole, I think the smart money is on the Jets using their two 1st rounders, their 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders to draft a young franchise QB and put a supporting cast around him. 

 

Impact on Bills;  I'm not sure which scenario is better for the Bills, the Jets trading the store and mortgaging their future for Watson who is a stud and having no team around him, or the Jets rolling the dice on a rookie QB and upgrading the roster.  I could argue both sides of that equation but ultimately I think keeping Watson out of the ACFE is the best outcome for the Bills.  Could Watson overcome the Jet's franchise dysfunction single handedly?  Maybe.  But it would take a couple of seasons to get that roster stocked with enough talent to really make them a threat.  Drafting a franchise QB is always a roll of the dice and there is a chance the Jets won't have the institutional discipline to make it work, ala Sam Darnold.  Lets hope the Jets stay put at 2 and draft a QB.

 

Patriots;   The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds in this year's draft including the #15 overall selection in the 1st round.  The Patriots have been spending money like drunken sailors in free agency and while the en vogue take is that you can't win by spending big in free agency, I look at the Pat's roster now compared to the end of the last season and I can't imagine how they are not going to be dramatically better this year.  All they need now is a quarterback....  I could see Bill swinging for the fences and sending three 1st rounders for Watson.  With the scandal swirling around Watson I think his price has gone down.  Would there be a lot of snarking and commentary about the Watson / Kraft massage stuff, yep, but I don't see that stopping them from making the move if it's there to be made. The Pat's and Texan's front offices are connected and a deal could get done.

 

Impact on Bills;  This is the nightmare scenario.  I think it would be a coin toss about winning the division if Watson ends up in New England.  Belichick's defense along with Deshaun Watson's passing would be a deadly combo.  They still have money to go out and buy some B list wide receivers that are still on the market like Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Dede Westbrook, and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Bill doesn't have ten more years to coach.  He needs to start winning now.  Jimmy G would help that but not like Watson would.  I don't expect Cam to be under center Week 1.  Let's pray it's not Watson.

Dude, pay attention:  Deshaun Watson is NOT tradable right now, or at anytime before the allegations against him by the 24 or so women are fully resolved, and even then, only if the resolution is favorable to Watson.  There is no way that happens before the NFL draft.  Until and unless it is resolved in his favor, he is radioactive and will not be going to the AFC East, the NFC West or anywhere else.  Go find something else to worry about.  

[Rocket94]

Yeah...we do not want him here! The rest of the AFCE will be gunning for us as it is!

[whatdrought]

Feels like it’s the Panthers game to lose. If he gets moved, I expect it to be them. 

[Inigo Montoya]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Dude, pay attention:  Deshaun Watson is NOT tradable right now, or at anytime before the allegations against him by the 24 or so women are fully resolved, and even then, only if the resolution is favorable to Watson.  There is no way that happens before the NFL draft.  Until and unless it is resolved in his favor, he is radioactive and will not be going to the AFC East, the NFC West or anywhere else.  Go find something else to worry about.  

 

Unless he is on the Commissioner's Exempt list, he can be traded.  These are civil charges, not criminal charges at this point.  He can be moved before the draft and will be "cheaper" to get as a result of these allegations.  If you are hoping all 32 NFL franchises suddenly find a conscience and do the honorable thing, good luck with that.... Dude

 

[Virgil]

If they were smart, they would do it. 

[GunnerBill]

So I understand Carolina were very much the clubhouse leaders pre-allegations but that the 49ers and Miami had both put out feelers. The 49ers have taken themselves out of the running now with the trade up. So if Watson plays next year (between possible sit out and/or suspension) it is either Miami or Carolina I think.

16 minutes ago, mannc said:

Dude, pay attention:  Deshaun Watson is NOT tradable right now, or at anytime before the allegations against him by the 24 or so women are fully resolved, and even then, only if the resolution is favorable to Watson.  There is no way that happens before the NFL draft.  Until and unless it is resolved in his favor, he is radioactive and will not be going to the AFC East, the NFC West or anywhere else.  Go find something else to worry about.  

 

While they are only civil charges all teams need worry about is how long a suspension might be. There is no sign at this stage of criminal charges. If they follow then I agree he is totally untradeable.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Unless he is on the Commissioner's Exempt list, he can be traded.  These are civil charges, not criminal charges at this point.  He can be moved before the draft and will be "cheaper" to get as a result of these allegations.  If you are hoping all 32 NFL franchises suddenly find a conscience and do the honorable thing, good luck with that.... Dude

 

Obviously, I did not mean it was physically or legally impossible for him to be traded.  He is likely facing a substantial suspension and maybe more.  No team--none--will trade for him right now, unless it's for an insanely discounted price (like a third round pick), but of course the Texans will never trade him for something like that.  Any GM who gave up anything near what Watson was worth before these allegations came to light would be fired, and rightly so.  He is untradeable right now.  Period.  And I have no idea what your last sentence means.  I wasn't commenting on the consciences or honorability of other NFL teams.  It's strictly business.

[Peace Frog]

32 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Dolphins;  The draft pick swapping that the Dolphins engaged in last week makes is less likely that they will be in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes going forward.  If they were really trying to swing a trade with Houston I don't think they would have traded away the #3 pick where one of the Big 4 draft day QBs is likely to be selected.  They will probably all be gone by the time the Dolphins pick with their new #6 pick.  Anything can happen but I think this lessens the chance Watson goes to South Beach.  It looks like Miami is going to roll with Tua instead of grabbing one of the blue chip QBs this year.  I think they were the biggest threat to land Watson in our division.

 

Impact on Bills; I think that's obviously good news for the Bills.  Tua might continue to develop and become a solid franchise QB, but he sure didn't look like one last season.  There will be more talent around Tua to support him but I'd rather keep Watson out of Miami.  If you put Watson in Miami I think its a real dog fight with them to win the AFCE this year.  The Phins' roster has some talent and could make a run with a true franchise QB under center.  Fortunately it looks like they are rolling with Tua. 

 

Jets;  The Jets are still sitting there at #2 and according to media reports are all in on Zach Wilson from BYU.  They do have the draft capital to swing a trade with Houston (two 1st rounders this year and next) but Joe Douglas seems to have a head on his shoulders and I'd be surprised if he trades a bunch of 1st rounders to Houston to bring in a QB with a big contract when he can lock up a solid young QB on a rookie contract for years and still have a lot of draft capital to restock a roster that is bereft of talent.  On the whole, I think the smart money is on the Jets using their two 1st rounders, their 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders to draft a young franchise QB and put a supporting cast around him. 

 

Impact on Bills;  I'm not sure which scenario is better for the Bills, the Jets trading the store and mortgaging their future for Watson who is a stud and having no team around him, or the Jets rolling the dice on a rookie QB and upgrading the roster.  I could argue both sides of that equation but ultimately I think keeping Watson out of the ACFE is the best outcome for the Bills.  Could Watson overcome the Jet's franchise dysfunction single handedly?  Maybe.  But it would take a couple of seasons to get that roster stocked with enough talent to really make them a threat.  Drafting a franchise QB is always a roll of the dice and there is a chance the Jets won't have the institutional discipline to make it work, ala Sam Darnold.  Lets hope the Jets stay put at #2 and draft a QB.

 

Patriots;   The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds in this year's draft including the #15 overall selection in the 1st round.  The Patriots have been spending money like drunken sailors in free agency and while the en vogue take is that you can't win by spending big in free agency, I look at the Pat's roster now compared to the end of the last season and I can't imagine how they are not going to be dramatically better this year.  All they need now is a quarterback....  I could see Bill swinging for the fences and sending three 1st rounders for Watson.  With the scandal swirling around Watson I think his price has gone down.  Would there be a lot of snarking and commentary about the Watson / Kraft massage stuff, yep, but I don't see that stopping them from making the move if it's there to be made. The Pat's and Texan's front offices are connected and a deal could get done.

 

Impact on Bills;  This is the nightmare scenario.  I think it would be a coin toss about winning the division if Watson ends up in New England.  Belichick's defense along with Deshaun Watson's passing would be a deadly combo.  They still have money to go out and buy some B list wide receivers that are still on the market like Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Dede Westbrook, and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Bill doesn't have ten more years to coach.  He needs to start winning now.  Jimmy G would help that but not like Watson would.  I don't expect Cam to be under center Week 1.  Let's pray it's not Watson.

 

The chance that Deshaun Watson ends up traded at all is inconceivable!  

[WhoTom]

32 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Patriots;   The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds in this year's draft including the #15 overall selection in the 1st round.  The Patriots have been spending money like drunken sailors in free agency and while the en vogue take is that you can't win by spending big in free agency, I look at the Pat's roster now compared to the end of the last season and I can't imagine how they are not going to be dramatically better this year.  All they need now is a quarterback....  I could see Bill swinging for the fences and sending three 1st rounders for Watson.  With the scandal swirling around Watson I think his price has gone down.  Would there be a lot of snarking and commentary about the Watson / Kraft massage stuff, yep, but I don't see that stopping them from making the move if it's there to be made. The Pat's and Texan's front offices are connected and a deal could get done.

 

BB wants to win a Super Bowl without #12, so I could see him mortgaging the future to accomplish exactly that, and then retiring after the  balloon payments on that mortgage come due.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, WhoTom said:

BB wants to win a Super Bowl without #12, so I could see him mortgaging the future to accomplish exactly that, and then retiring after the  balloon payments on that mortgage come due.

 

They don't have near the draft capital to make it work. 

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

While they are only civil charges all teams need worry about is how long a suspension might be. There is no sign at this stage of criminal charges. If they follow then I agree he is totally untradeable.

Bill, there are just too many unknowns right now.  No one is trading for Watson unless and until there is some resolution or it appears that the charges are not particularly serious.  Right now, there are new allegations every week, so a resolution is seemingly a long way off.  Teams like the Jets, Niners and Dolphins, who were mentioned as likely landing places for Watson are moving on, as we saw this week.

 

And by the way, the bolded is not quite true.  Information has been turned over to the district attorney and there is presumably some sort of criminal investigation ongoing.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

Bill, there are just too many unknowns right now.  No one is trading for Watson unless and until there is some resolution or it appears that the charges are not particularly serious.  Right now, there are new allegations every week, so a resolution is seemingly a long way off.  Teams like the Jets, Niners and Dolphins, who were mentioned as likely landing places for Watson are moving on, as we saw this week.

 

And by the way, the bolded is not quite true.  Information has been turned over to the district attorney and there is presumably some sort of criminal investigation ongoing.  

 

Sure, the file has been handed tot the DA, but having had a read of a few of the papers that have been lodged before the court I think (particularly if the civil suits are combined and brought as a class action) there is very likely sufficient evidence to meet the civil standard but based on the evidence that is there now meeting the criminal standard is much tougher. Unless there is evidence in the DA file that is supplementary to the civil suits filed with the court and available as public documents. 

 

And I will repeat what I said elsewhere, I am pretty sure Watson has done at least some of the things he is being accused of. The pattern of behaviour is very clear. But I don't think he is untradeable while he only faces civil suits. Only if criminal chargers appear likely to follow (and that remains a big if at the moment I think, I'd err on the side of less likely than more) do I think NFL teams will fully consider Watson untradeable. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sure, the file has been handed tot the DA, but having had a read of a few of the papers that have been lodged before the court I think (particularly if the civil suits are combined and brought as a class action) there is very likely sufficient evidence to meet the civil standard but based on the evidence that is there now meeting the criminal standard is much tougher. Unless there is evidence in the DA file that is supplementary to the civil suits filed with the court and available as public documents. 

 

And I will repeat what I said elsewhere, I am pretty sure Watson has done at least some of the things he is being accused of. The pattern of behaviour is very clear. But I don't think he is untradeable while he only faces civil suits. Only if criminal chargers appear likely to follow (and that remains a big if at the moment I think, I'd err on the side of less likely than more) do I think NFL teams will fully consider Watson untradeable. 

Bill, with all due respect, I think you're well out of your lane if you are commenting on what might or might not be the basis for a criminal prosecution.  He's accused of serial sexual assault.  I don't know how strong the evidence is and neither do you, but there's at least some non-trivial chance of a criminal prosecution here, especially given the sheer number of the allegations and the consistency of the alleged victims' stories.

 

With regard to the bold, we are talking about a franchise QB here, not a RB or DE.  No team is going to give up a ton of assets and make Watson the highest paid and highest profile player in their franchise's history with these allegations hanging over him.  They would get absolutely massacred if they did.   

[wjag]

With Watson's character under attack, I would say there is zero chance of him leaving Houston.  

Edited March 28, 2021 by wjag

[Paul Costa]

How ironic that the Patriots would take him after what happened with Robert Kraft a couple of years ago at a rub & tug spa and what is being alleged that Watson has done. 😱

[wppete]

He has better Chances that he ends up in prison over the AFCE at this point. 
 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by wppete

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, mannc said:

Bill, with all due respect, I think you're well out of your lane if you are commenting on what might or might not be the basis for a criminal prosecution.  He's accused of serial sexual assault.  I don't know how strong the evidence is and neither do you, but there's at least some non-trivial chance of a criminal prosecution here, especially given the sheer number of the allegations and the consistency of the alleged victims' stories.

 

With regard to the bold, we are talking about a franchise QB here, not a RB or DE.  No team is going to give up a ton of assets and make Watson the highest paid and highest profile player in their franchise's history with these allegations hanging over him.  They would get absolutely massacred if they did.   

 

I am not out of my lane though, understanding the law is my job. I advise the UK Government on civil and administrative law matters. There might be evidence that goes to the DA that is not in the papers filed and publicly available as part of the civil suit. I agree. I am not saying a criminal suit is or isn't going to happen, what I am saying is the evidence that is in the public domain at this stage would make a criminal prosecution difficult. NFL teams of course will be doing their own investigations if they were considering making a move for Watson but if they believe that what is in the public domain is it then the question they are asking themselves is "could we live with him being suspended for a year, is it still worth the cost?" That isn't untradeable in my eyes. If criminal charges follow then he absolutely is untradeable. 

 

EDIT: of course that is purely a legal view. I have no idea what NFL team will make of the ethical question of whether to trade for a guy who pretty clearly has some very questionable sexual behaviour. 

Edited March 28, 2021 by GunnerBill