Draft Compensation Question: Why is everyone applauding the Fins for their trade down?

[IgotBILLStopay]

The Jests gave the Colts two 2nd rounders in the same draft year and one second rounder the next year to move up from 6 to 3.

The Fins got a 2023 first rounder and a third round comp pick this year.

 

I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year unless we are talking about a top 5 or top 10 pick. There is no way a 2023 first rounder (two years hence) is worth more than a second rounder in  the 2021 draft. So the Fins at most landed a second and a late 3rd for giving up a third overall for a sixth overall.

 

Shaking my head since every analyst is lauding the Fins.

 

Not that I am complaining. I do like it when AFCE opponents overpay or under-receive, though I would have liked it if the Colts did not get so manty cheap assets. In contrast, the NFC benefited from the Fins' largesse.

 

Edit: Went over to the Fins' message boards and a good chunk of them hate the Philly trade. Feel the fins were fleeced. The Iggles message board is gaga about the trade. Says something I think.

Edited March 27, 2021 by IgotBILLStopay

[P Riv]

"I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year"

 

Curious how you came to that line of thinking.  

[ColoradoBills]

I copied and pasted from one of the trade threads:

 

I will say how I see these trades.

 

1.  Miami has 8 picks of which 5 are in the Top 81.  They don't need anymore draft capital this year.

2.  If their GM/HC has 3 non QBs players on their board that they want then the trade down doesn't matter.

3.  Next year they could trade that 1st and 3rd which will be worth a lot more than right now.

4.  If they save them for 2023 it's a 1st and a 3rd no matter what anyone says they are worth now.

     If Tua fails they will want those future picks.

 

Seems to me they are planning long term and that doesn't make me happy.

I hope they pick a few busts!

[The Jokeman]

10 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Jests gave the Colts two 2nd rounders in the same draft year and one second rounder the next year to move up from 6 to 3.

The Fins got a 2023 first rounder and a third round comp pick this year.

 

I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year unless we are talking about a top 5 or top 10 pick. There is no way a 2023 first rounder (two years hence) is worth more than a second rounder in  the 2021 draft. So the Fins at most landed a second and a late 3rd for giving up a third overall for a sixth overall.

 

Shaking my head since every analyst is lauding the Fins.

 

Not that I am complaining. I do like it when AFCE opponents overpay or under-receive, though I would have liked it if the Colts did not get so manty cheap assets. In contrast, the NFC benefited from the Fins' largesse.

I agree it's a risk as many Bills fans, including me, don't think Tua is a game changing QB, so by moving out of the top 3 the Dolphins has lessened their chance to get Lawrence, Wilson, Fields or Lance who could be viewed as better than Tua. Yes, they acquired more 1st Rounders but it doesn't guarantee a top 10 pick that could be needed to get a franchise type QB especially with the 49ers likely to be better in 2021 with Bosa healthy maybe a better QB etc. 

 

Yet the more high picks you have in your back pocket the better chance you have at getting a quality QB. I mean look at what happened with us in 2018 to get Allen. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by The Jokeman

[MAJBobby]

Trades will always be evaluated based on the players taken with the picks. What MIA has done is built a solid cache of capital to turn their team quick. Now they have to execute the second part and use that Capital effectively 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, P Riv said:

"I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year"

 

Curious how you came to that line of thinking.  

I don't want to answer for the person you're asking this of, but...

In reading through interviews with GMs and personnel men over the years, I have found that this is a pretty standard way of looking at future picks. A 2022 3rd is considered the equivalent of a 2021 4th, for example.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

Many Bills fans, including me, don't think Tua is a game changing QB, so by moving out of the top 3 the Dolphins has lessened their chance to get Lawrence, Wilson, Fields or Lance who could be viewed as better than Tua. Yes, they acquired more 1st Rounders but it doesn't guarantee a top 10 pick that could be needed to get a franchise type QB especially with the 49ers likely to be better in 2021 with Bosa healthy maybe a better QB etc. 

but if you have the capital you can get to your QB target area. See Bills executing their plan perfectly to get from 20s to position to Land Josh. 
 

as I mentioned in my posting. They did great getting the capital of Tua flops (I think he will). Now they have to to the other part of the equation and execute 

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

but if you have the capital you can get to your QB target area. See Bills executing their plan perfectly to get from 20s to position to Land Josh. 
 

as I mentioned in my posting. They did great getting the capital of Tua flops (I think he will). Now they have to to the other part of the equation and execute 

I just edited my comments to agree with this point.

[Southern_Bills]

I thought the initial trade with the 49ers was a good deal, but the move back to 6 was eh.

 

Of course it's the draft, if they get a hall of fame at 6 while picking up a 3rd and a future 1st you look back and call them geniuses. 

 

The outcome dictates how it's remembered. 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

I thought the initial trade with the 49ers was a good deal, but the move back to 6 was eh.

 

Of course it's the draft, if they get a hall of fame at 6 while picking up a 3rd and a future 1st you look back and call them geniuses. 

 

The outcome dictates how it's remembered. 

I do think the move back to 6 before draft day and seeing how the board was breaking was premature and maybe cost more then it would have if they waited. It was weird to me unless they wanted to possibly get into a position that could be a nice spot for a QB and leverage that draft day. 

[BringBackFergy]

Hold up. Are you all saying we need to be scared of the Dolphins AND the Cheats?? So we’ll finish 3rd in AFCE??

[IgotBILLStopay]

15 minutes ago, P Riv said:

"I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year"

 

Curious how you came to that line of thinking.  

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

 

Discount to reflect time value of money. I am not alone - here is something from a quick google search.

 

Quote

Future draft picks are valued one round earlier than the current year

In other words, a team could trade a fourth round pick in 2017 and reasonably expect to receive a 2018 third round pick on the market. A current fifth is worth a future fourth. No one really wants future seventh round picks because they hold almost no value.

This valuation of future picks is a representation of time value of money, which means that a draft pick now is worth more than the same draft pick in a future year.

 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I do think the move back to 6 before draft day and seeing how the board was breaking was premature and maybe cost more then it would have if they waited. It was weird to me unless they wanted to possibly get into a position that could be a nice spot for a QB and leverage that draft day. 

 

That could be an option for them.

It seems obvious they are going with Tua for this year and probably next year too.

If they didn't think that they wouldn't of done what they did.

How it works out everyone will have to wait and I hope Tua busts!

 

They also are playing with house money here.  Who on this board would of though the Tunsil trade would of worked out

as a #6 let alone the future picks.

[78thealltimegreat]

50 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Jests gave the Colts two 2nd rounders in the same draft year and one second rounder the next year to move up from 6 to 3.

The Fins got a 2023 first rounder and a third round comp pick this year.

 

I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year unless we are talking about a top 5 or top 10 pick. There is no way a 2023 first rounder (two years hence) is worth more than a second rounder in  the 2021 draft. So the Fins at most landed a second and a late 3rd for giving up a third overall for a sixth overall.

 

Shaking my head since every analyst is lauding the Fins.

 

Not that I am complaining. I do like it when AFCE opponents overpay or under-receive, though I would have liked it if the Colts did not get so manty cheap assets. In contrast, the NFC benefited from the Fins' largesse.

Other then Spencer Rattler there is no other qbs with first round grades next year it’s basically Tua’s team now and for the Bills that’s not a bad thing at all 

51 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I copied and pasted from one of the trade threads:

 

I will say how I see these trades.

 

1.  Miami has 8 picks of which 5 are in the Top 81.  They don't need anymore draft capital this year.

2.  If their GM/HC has 3 non QBs players on their board that they want then the trade down doesn't matter.

3.  Next year they could trade that 1st and 3rd which will be worth a lot more than right now.

4.  If they save them for 2023 it's a 1st and a 3rd no matter what anyone says they are worth now.

     If Tua fails they will want those future picks.

 

Seems to me they are planning long term and that doesn't make me happy.

I hope they pick a few busts!

Anyone team can do this put Josh up for trade and imagine the haul a team like the Bears would give you for him here take Mack and 3 number 1s just to start and you can rebuild like the Dolphins did 

[Charles Romes]

I see tuas ceiling as top 15 being generous while joshs ceiling is 1.  So, we will always be significantly better than them until they move on from tua. 

[NewEra]

Because they got FIVE 1st rd picks, a 2nd rd pick and a 3rd rd pick for an overrated LT that is getting paid TWENTY SIX MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, for the next couple years.

 

it’s could be better than the Herschel Walker trade if Miami doesn’t muck it up

[thurst44]

Just now, NewEra said:

Because they got FIVE 1st rd picks, a 2nd rd pick and a 3rd rd pick for an overrated LT that is getting paid TWENTY SIX MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, for the next couple years.

 

it’s could be better than the Herschel Walker trade if Miami doesn’t muck it up

You're overestimating it by counting the 1st rounds they traded away. When you move places in the draft or use a draft pick to get another draft pick, you can't count the draft pick you gave away. It's a good trade, but (1) we don't need to make it more than it actually was and (2) until they prove they can pick correctly and hold on to their 1st rounders it doesn't worry me that much. Besides, it doesn't change the fact that the Bills are now a very good team.

.

Here's the math from a Miami Dolphins page on SI today trying to paint it in the best possible light.

 

"So, boiling it down, you could say that — excluding the other players and later-round picks — the Dolphins essentially traded Tunsil for a 2020 first-round pick, the sixth overall pick in 2021, a second-round pick in 2021, a third-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023."

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-continue-to-benefit-from-laremy-tunsil-trade

 

 

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

The Jests gave the Colts two 2nd rounders in the same draft year and one second rounder the next year to move up from 6 to 3.

The Fins got a 2023 first rounder and a third round comp pick this year.

 

I usually use a rule of thumb where a draft pick next year in round X is roughly worth a draft pick in round X-1 this year unless we are talking about a top 5 or top 10 pick. There is no way a 2023 first rounder (two years hence) is worth more than a second rounder in  the 2021 draft. So the Fins at most landed a second and a late 3rd for giving up a third overall for a sixth overall.

 

Shaking my head since every analyst is lauding the Fins.

 

Not that I am complaining. I do like it when AFCE opponents overpay or under-receive, though I would have liked it if the Colts did not get so manty cheap assets. In contrast, the NFC benefited from the Fins' largesse.

They are lauding the Fins because they are in love with Tua Tagavailoa.

 

They believe he is the next greatest QB to ever play the game, just as they thought about Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III, and Vince Young.

 

So when the Dolphins do something like this, the analysts all bow down to them.

[whatdrought]

The move back to six doesn’t make any sense to me. They’re going to be spending 2 first round picks on whoever they take at 6. Additionally, you could have sat at 12 and waited to see how the board falls. 
 

Assuming they’re not in the QB game, they are probably looking at any of the two OL, 3 WR’s, Pitts, or Parsons. 
 

Right now we know that QB’s are going too 3. Say Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields.

 

That leaves 2 picks where their primo prize could be gone. So they either want to move up again (unlikely, and why not just call ATL to begin with instead of messing with PHI) or they are alright with several of those guys (at least 3). 
 

The question remains- why trade back up to 6 at this point in the offseason? They could have waited and seen what happened and pick 6 may come up with 2-3 of their guys on the board and they can wait to trade up till 8 or 9. 

[In Summary]

Could it in some part be as simple as Miami wanting to see what they have in Tua this year while still having the draft capital to get a QB next year if Tua doesn't pan out?