TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Complete

[Reed83HOF]

6 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

There are a couple Edge players I’d be happy with at 30, and a couple CB’s I think are likely. RB I’m meh on. Take it or leave it. If they do take one, they better have a plan to recoup value for Moss or Singletary before the draft ends. 

I just don't see edge making a big enough impact at 30, if a guy they really like starts falling Beane will make a move. All of these picks won't make our roster.

 

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It depends which CBs are available.  If surtain, Farley, horn and Newsome are off the board, I would argue that CB would be a poor choice @30.  Maaaaybe Samuel.  I’m just not a big fan of his fit in our system and would rather trade down.  I don’t feel that we should be drafting for our biggest weakness just because it’s our biggest weakness if the player isn’t worth the pick.  Drafting the best player = the best move imo.

 

Beane loves to fill all the holes in FA prior to the draft to go after true BPA as much as possible, this position still has not been addressed.

 

I agree BPA, but Beane will maneuver up (more likely than down) to grab the player within the positional group that the "team as a whole" places value on vs the talent gap between the A players and the B players

 

We will definitely be in the B range of Edge guys and A RBs. If an A corner can be grabbed in the latter half of RD1, you can take it to the bank.

 

 

[H2o]

27 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I just don't see edge making a big enough impact at 30, if a guy they really like starts falling Beane will make a move. All of these picks won't make our roster.

 

 

Beane loves to fill all the holes in FA prior to the draft to go after true BPA as much as possible, this position still has not been addressed.

 

I agree BPA, but Beane will maneuver up (more likely than down) to grab the player within the positional group that the "team as a whole" places value on vs the talent gap between the A players and the B players

 

We will definitely be in the B range of Edge guys and A RBs. If an A corner can be grabbed in the latter half of RD1, you can take it to the bank.

 

 

It will be interesting to see where Jaycee Horn is at. I suspect if he makes it to the 20-25 range then you might see the Bills move up to get him. I think Surtain, Farley, and Horn are the true 1st Round talents @ the CB position. Just my 2. 

[NewEra]

34 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I just don't see edge making a big enough impact at 30, if a guy they really like starts falling Beane will make a move. All of these picks won't make our roster.

 

 

Beane loves to fill all the holes in FA prior to the draft to go after true BPA as much as possible, this position still has not been addressed.

 

I agree BPA, but Beane will maneuver up (more likely than down) to grab the player within the positional group that the "team as a whole" places value on vs the talent gap between the A players and the B players

 

We will definitely be in the B range of Edge guys and A RBs. If an A corner can be grabbed in the latter half of RD1, you can take it to the bank.

 

 

Good post.  I agree completely.  I also agree that cb2 is our biggest need, but only for the 2021 season.  Pass rusher is our biggest need going forward.  We have one of the leagues best at cb1 which allows us to shade more help towards our cb2, while a good pass rush makes the cb2 a better player by default.
 

Addison and Hughes may be playing their last year, Obada is on a 1 year deal and Epenesa is an unknown at this point.  Bam is a better ST player than he is a DE.  
 

If there’s a pass rusher that they like @30 (or can trade up for) they should draft him over cb2 imo.  

[Canadian Bills Fan]

With the 21st pick in the TSW Draft.. The Indianapolis Colts Select...

 

Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia 

 

 

Indianapolis' edge unit ranked 25th in pass-rush grade a season ago and has their two most productive players at the position, Justin Houston and Denico Autry, hitting free agency. Regardless of their future with the team, Indy needs to bolster its lackluster pass-rushing on the edge.

 

Ojulari is a true speed rusher who can get away with his lack of standout strength and power with his athleticism. He broke out in a big way in 2020, raising his 71.4 pass-rushing grade to 91.7, second in the FBS. Ojulari also forced three strip-sack fumbles and generated a 24.3% pass-rush, ranking top five at his position in the FBS

 

@turftoe is now on the clock

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

With the 21st pick in the TSW Draft.. The Indianapolis Colts Select...

 

Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia 

 

 

Indianapolis' edge unit ranked 25th in pass-rush grade a season ago and has their two most productive players at the position, Justin Houston and Denico Autry, hitting free agency. Regardless of their future with the team, Indy needs to bolster its lackluster pass-rushing on the edge.

 

Ojulari is a true speed rusher who can get away with his lack of standout strength and power with his athleticism. He broke out in a big way in 2020, raising his 71.4 pass-rushing grade to 91.7, second in the FBS. Ojulari also forced three strip-sack fumbles and generated a 24.3% pass-rush, ranking top five at his position in the FBS

 

@turftoe is now on the clock

They’ve had success with “undersized” pass rushers in the past.  Good pick!

[TPS]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

It depends which CBs are available.  If surtain, Farley, horn and Newsome are off the board, I would argue that CB would be a poor choice @30.  Maaaaybe Samuel.  I’m just not a big fan of his fit in our system and would rather trade down.  I don’t feel that we should be drafting for our biggest weakness just because it’s our biggest weakness if the player isn’t worth the pick.  Drafting the best player = the best move imo. 

 

 

 

This is where I'm at as well. In my latest iterations of the simulator, if Newsome is there, I grab him; if not, I trade back (unless an edge falls, or sometimes I'll take Moehrig).  This is why, for me, I think it's going to be the most interesting Bills draft in Beane's tenure.  

[Reed83HOF]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good post.  I agree completely.  I also agree that cb2 is our biggest need, but only for the 2021 season.  Pass rusher is our biggest need going forward.  We have one of the leagues best at cb1 which allows us to shade more help towards our cb2, while a good pass rush makes the cb2 a better player by default.
 

Addison and Hughes may be playing their last year, Obada is on a 1 year deal and Epenesa is an unknown at this point.  Bam is a better ST player than he is a DE.  
 

If there’s a pass rusher that they like @30 (or can trade up for) they should draft him over cb2 imo.  

I agree completely as well. I do think Hughes will be back, but Edge is a glaring need, which is why I was hoping in FA or via trade.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

It depends which CBs are available.  If surtain, Farley, horn and Newsome are off the board, I would argue that CB would be a poor choice @30.  Maaaaybe Samuel.  I’m just not a big fan of his fit in our system and would rather trade down.  I don’t feel that we should be drafting for our biggest weakness just because it’s our biggest weakness if the player isn’t worth the pick.  Drafting the best player = the best move imo. 

 

 

The more I watch Samuel the lower he slides. My initial grade on him back in Jan was a mid 2nd. I now have him as an early 3rd. And you are right about scheme fit here. He is a man only corner for me. If you just want him to match up and run with his guy he can do that. His spacial awareness and angles in any sort of zone are bad and I think he struggles with physical receivers. If Buffalo want to man up on a small speedster like Tyreek Hill then Samuel could have a decent stab at that.... but the other 15 regular season games I fear he would be lost in our defense.

1 hour ago, H2o said:

It will be interesting to see where Jaycee Horn is at. I suspect if he makes it to the 20-25 range then you might see the Bills move up to get him. I think Surtain, Farley, and Horn are the true 1st Round talents @ the CB position. Just my 2. 

 

I agree with that. I have those 3 as pure firsts and a borderline 1st/2nd on Greg Newsome. After that I have Campbell and Jospeh as my only round two grades at the position. 

[turftoe]

With the 22nd pick in the TSW mock draft, The Titans select Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern.

The Jets @Bleedingreennc are now on the clock.

 

The Tennessee Titans considered an edge rusher with this pick.  We did sign Denico Autry and Bud Dupree, so the expected loss of Jadeveon Clowney is lessened. We lost Adoree' Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Desmond King.  We did get Janoris Jenkins but adding to the back end is still high on the priority list. Greg Newsome is a really good football player. 

Edited March 28, 2021 by turftoe

[Bleedingreennc]

With the 23rd pick in the TSW mock draft, The New York Jets select Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma.

 

Humphrey is an athletic leader on the offensive line who may remind Jets fans of former Pro Bowl pivot Nick Mangold. Shifting 2020 free-agent signee Connor McGovern to guard would improve two spots on the line in front of whichever quarterback the Jets roll with in 2021 and beyond.

 

 

The Steelers @RyanC883 are now on the clock.

[Virgil]

@RyanC883 is on the clock

 

4 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

With the 23rd pick in the TSW mock draft, The New York Jets select Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma.

 

Humphrey is an athletic leader on the offensive line who may remind Jets fans of former Pro Bowl pivot Nick Mangold. Shifting 2020 free-agent signee Connor McGovern to guard would improve two spots on the line in front of whichever quarterback the Jets roll with in 2021 and beyond.

 

 

The Steelers @RyanC883 are now on the clock.

The Ravens flock is angry with you 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Virgil

[Lazy]

Thanks again Virgil for these drafts.

And everyone for assuming the teams.

 

Helps me to get a handle on all the possibilities out there.

Always Fun.

[RyanC883]

With the 24th pick in the TSW mock draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

 

The Steelers through hard about going OT or LB here, but my top choices at those positions are gone, and the remainders may not be ready day 1 or don't fit the 3-4 system, leaving them as perhaps no better than what the Steelers currently have.   The Steelers NEED a 3 down back.  This guy fits exactly what they need.  Speed, power, agility and catching ability.  And as for the OL, the Steelers are hopeful that FA OT Alejandro Villaneuva comes back for another year.

 

The Jaguars and @Buffalo716 are now on the clock.  

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by RyanC883

[Virgil]

2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

With the 24th pick in the TSW mock draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

 

The Steelers through hard about going OT or LB here, but my top choices at those positions are gone, and the remainders may not be ready day 1 or don't fit the 3-4 system, leaving them as perhaps no better than what the Steelers currently have.   The Steelers NEED a 3 down back.  This guy fits exactly what they need.  Speed, power, agility and catching ability.  And as for the OL, the Steelers are hopeful that FA OT Alejandro Villaneuva comes back for another year.

 

The Jaguars and @Buffalo716 are now on the clock.  

 

 

You may have just angered some Bills fans 

[whatdrought]

Just now, Virgil said:

You may have just angered some Bills fans 

Indeed. If we’re going RB, he’s my guy.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

I agree completely as well. I do think Hughes will be back, but Edge is a glaring need, which is why I was hoping in FA or via trade.

I hope Hughes will be back too, but I think his play this year will be the ultimate determining factor.  Love me some Jerrrrrrrrrry

[whatdrought]

3 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

I just don't see edge making a big enough impact at 30, if a guy they really like starts falling Beane will make a move. All of these picks won't make our roster.

 

I can see that. Personally I just don’t see any positions where a rookie has a higher than 40% chance of starting day one. Even at CB I think Levi or Dane would have an edge and the rookie would likely get rotational reps and then a chance to start down the line. 
 

I think getting high upside guys who have a chance to get some snapped but aren’t going to be relied on to start is the way to go. 
 

That being said, I’m fine with Edge or CB, whichever is best bet at 30. I still feel like trading out is our best bet.

[BuffaLoko]

On 3/26/2021 at 1:33 PM, Virgil said:

Alright everyone, it's mock draft time again.  Like last year, the goal is to complete 3 total mock drafts:  No Trades (2 Rounds), Trades (2 Rounds), No Trades (3 Rounds).  In prior years, the final mock is for our yearly contributors and those who were active in the first two mocks.  While it's a mock and our accuracy rate is trash 😋, we still like to take have some fun and keep it as realistic as possible. 

 

For the Bills picks, a poll will be posted for everyone to vote in.

 

Here's the rules:

1 - Everyone has 5 hours to make their selection. (If you miss, your pick will be made for you by either @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13@Reed83HOF and you will lose your spot in future mocks)

2 - When you make your selection, the format should be as follows:

With the 30th pick in the TSW Mock Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming.

The Kansas City Chiefs @Virgil are on the clock.

(It's also encouraged to write brief summary explaining your thoughts)

3 - Do not derail the draft thread with excessive comments about prior picks.  Discussion is welcome, but it went a little sideways in one draft.

 

Draft Time:

The first pick will be within 24 hours of when we get 32 owners.  That could be anywhere over the next 72 hours.  If you sign up, please make sure you are paying attention.  I would recommend following the thread

 

1 - Jaguars (Buffalo716) - QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

2 - Jets (Bleedingreennc) - QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

3 - 49ers (nester) - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

4 - Falcons (BigdaddyinOrlando) - Kyle Pitts,TE, Florida

5 - Bengals (H20) - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

6 - Dolphins (Logic) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

7 - Lions (Watkins101) - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

8 - Panthers (MAJBobby) - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

9 - Broncos (Doc Brown) - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

10 - Cowboys (GunnerBill) - Patrick Surtain, DB, Alabama

11 - Giants (Draconator) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

12 - Eagles (Rock-A-Bye Beasley) - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

13 - Chargers (TPS) - Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern

14 - Vikings (CNYfan) - Kwity Paye, DE/DL, Michigan

15 - Patriots (section122) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

16 - Cardinals (Philo) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

17 - Raiders (Victory Formation) - Alijah-Vera Tucker, OG, USC

18 - Dolphins (Logic) - Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

19 - Washington (what drought) - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

20 - Bears (Just Joshin’) - Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

21 - Colts (Canadian Bill Fan) - Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia

22 - Titans (turftoe) - Greg Newsome II, DB, Northwestern

23 - Jets (Bleedingreennc) - Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma

24 - Steelers (RyanC883) - Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

25 - Jaguars (Buffalo716)

26 - Browns (Rc2catch)

27 - Ravens (Virgil)

28 - Saints (frostbitmic)

29 - Packers (Reed83HOF)

30 - Bills (TSW Poll)

31 - Chiefs (HappyDays)

32 - Bucs (inaugural balls)

 

Round 2

 

33 - Jaguars (Buffalo716)

34 - Jets (Bleedingreennc)

35 - Falcons (BigdaddyinOrlando)

36 - Dolphins (Logic)

37 - Eagles (Rock-A-Bye Beasley)

38 - Bengals (H20)

39 - Panthers (MAJBobby)

40 - Broncos (Doc Brown)

41 - Lions (Watkins101)

42 - Giants (Draconator)

43 - 49ers (nester)

44 - Cowboys (GunnerBill)

45 - Jaguars (Buffalo716)

46 - Patriots (section122)

47 - Chargers (TPS)

48 - Raiders (Victory Formation)

49 - Cardinals (Philo)

50 - Dolphins (Logic)

51 - Washington (what drought)

52 - Bears (Just Joshin’)

53 - Titans (turftoe)

54 - Colts (Canadian Fills Fan)

55 - Steelers (RyanC883)

56 - Seahawks (glazeduck)

57 - Rams (New Era/Butt Stuff)

58 - Ravens (Virgil)

59 - Browns (Rc2catch)

60 - Saints (frostbitmic)

61 - Bills (TSW Poll)

62 - Packers (Reed83HOF)

63 - Chiefs (HappyDays)

64 - Buccaneers (inaugural balls)

Dear @Virgil. I know I have not been involved much lately, and skipped last 2 year´s mocks, but just because  I like your dynamic a lot, I would like to propose myself, for the ¨waiting¨ back up list, for any team that doesn´t show up, assuming their announced back ups are already playing this mock or not available in the moment (>5 hrs) you need them. Thanks in advance whatever your answer comes down to... let's all have fun!

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, BuffaLoko said:

Dear @Virgil. I know I have not been involved much lately, and skipped last 2 year´s mocks, but just because  I like your dynamic a lot, I would like to propose myself, for the ¨waiting¨ back up list, for any team that doesn´t show up, assuming their announced back ups are already playing this mock or not available in the moment (>5 hrs) you need them. Thanks in advance whatever your answer comes down to... let's all have fun!

Are you like a Ryan Fitzpatrick type backup, or more of a Nathan Peterman?

[BuffaLoko]

4 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Are you like a Ryan Fitzpatrick type backup, or more of a Nathan Peterman?

hahahaha!😆I think the former more than the latter! 🙃, i see myself throwing as many picks as 60 YD bombs, with the eyes closed! but no doubt being a confident hell of a guy in front of pressure. Anyway, don´t worry Mr. @whatdrought, I´ve seen the alert / aspirant list, has grown 10 fold since it started, so I will spend my days in reading the fun stuff you all guys are posting here! Thanks for the interest, tough...